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M@linsky
4* Bos/Orl over
4* Bos/Orl over
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Re: 5-6-09
m@linsky
4* #712 BOSTON/ORLANDO Over
On Monday we lost a 4* Over ticket in this series opener and it did
not have to be that way, for most of the game the pace was right
were we projected it to be, but the efficiency counts were awful. The
two teams combined to shoot only 40.9 percent, when only a slightly
better marksmanship would have reversed the result. Tonight the pace
picks up, the efficiency gets much better, and this flow goes far
beyond what the oddsmakers are calling for.
Orlando can be successful against this defense by going into the
attack mode. The Celtics are extremely shy on depth, particularly in
terms of giving fouls against Dwight Howard up front, and when the
Magic were attacking they were scoring, building leads of 54-36 at
halftime, and 65-37 early in the 3rd quarter. Then they lowered the
gear, and scored only 30 points over the final 21 minutes of play.
They began working the clock instead of attacking, and the offense
completely bogged down, allowing Boston back into the game. And they
are well aware of what they did.
First, from Stan Van Gundy - The last 16 minutes was a debacle.
We were sort of trying to run out the clock, and you can?t do that in
games like this. Especially in the playoffs, teams are going to keep
fighting and keep coming back. And Dwight Howard - We got
complacent as a team, stopped doing what we did to get the lead and
against a good Celtics team you can"t do that. And Rashard Lewis
- Even though we won the game, everybody's making it seem like it
was a disaster game. We were highly upset in the locker room after
our win??
When the winning team brings the focus as if they had actually
been better it means a high degree of intensity, and the Celtics may
bring even more energy from their side of the equation. There is
almost no chance of Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo combining for anywhere
near that awful 4-24 count of Monday, which included 1-9 triples, and
now that they have had a day off at home to get their legs back we
can expect them to respond with a championship mentality tonight, and
a much better level of execution. They still have defensive headaches
in this matchup, but tonight find much easier ways to score,
particularly in the Allen/J. J. Redick matchup. -
Re: 5-6-09
gamehunter
2009 Record: 103-89, +37.0420 units
Tuesday: 2-8, -11.230 units (-12.1 units without HIS lines. he would probably be close to even for the year if you can't play HIS lines. be careful.)
FLORIDA +137 (1.75 UNITS)
OVER ATL/FLA 9 RUNS (-105) (1.5 UNITS)
OVER PHILS/METS 8.5 RUNS (-104) (1.75 UNITS)
CLEVELAND +190 (1.25 UNITS)
TAMPA BAY +157 (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER DET/WHITE SOX 9 RUNS (+104) (1.5 UNITS)
KANSAS CITY -123 (1.5 UNITS)Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
Maddux Sports
Baseball
#906 - MLB - 3 units on Cincinnati -105
#907 - MLB - 3 units on Chicago Cubs -145
#911 - MLB - 3 units on San Francisco +129
#921 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay +157
#924 - MLB - 3 units on Chicago White Sox -110
#926 - MLB - 3 units on Kansas City -121Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
m@linsky
4* #907 CUBS over HOUSTON
Some of the best concepts in sports betting come up rather infrequently, which means that we must take advantage when there are there. And the case of backing an “A” level performer off of a bad game comes to the front with Rich Harden here. Bad games are rare for pitchers of his caliber, but that is what happened vs. Florida on Friday, when he had some control problems in the fourth inning. Now we get a chance to play him in a rebound setting and note just how special he has been – in his Major League career he has worked to a 12-2/2.00 tune in 121.1 innings following a game in which he gave up four runs or more. That makes this one particularly strong, because it sets up well all the way around.
We cashed an easy 4* against the Cubs yesterday when Lou Piniella gave Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot and Milton Bradley the day off, while Carlos Marmol and Scott Gregg were both unavailable in the bullpen. But now that all changes. The rested players come back fresh for this one, creating a strong right-handed lineup to play into Mike Hampton, and the bullpen brings major edges for the latter stages against a worn-out Houston corps.
Hampton got off to a decent start in his return from injury but we do not see the stuff to maintain a high level – he has already fallen off to an 0-1/6.48 over his last three outings, and the 5.1 innings per start that he is averaging is about all the stamina that he has. That makes this a particularly difficult night for Cecil Cooper to get through nine innings, with his starters failing to go past the fifth inning in the last five games, and the bullpen struggling to a 5.63 tune in that span. Those pen issues are exacerbated by the DL absences of Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail, and Geoff Geary because of yesterday’s work load. Without many hard throwers around, an Astro defense that rates #25 on our best chart so far this season gets further exposed, providing the Cubs with ample opportunities to break this one open.
5* #914 SAN DIEGO/ARIZONA Under
Last night we turned a 6* Under in Petco in a game that brought much
more value than it should have because both of the starting pitchers
were undervalued off of some misleading early-season statistics.
Tonight we increase the * Rating again, as a pair of struggling
offenses once again find themselves having to scratch for anything
that they can get.
Jake Peavy only sports a 2-3/4.58 for this work so far this season,
but there are no issues anywhere ? his arm is alive (40 strikeouts
vs. 35 hits allowed), and his last outing might have been the best
game pitched in the Major Leagues so far in 2009 ? holding the
Dodgers scoreless, on two hits with eight strikeouts, over an eight
inning sint is not an easy thing to do right now. Now he returns to
his home mound for the first time since an ugly loss to the Pirates
two starts back, and note just what kind of competitor he has been in
these settings ? over the past 4+ seasons he has worked to a
10-5/1.90 tune over 20 starts in his next home game after a home
defeat. Arizona can not do much to get in his way. The Diamondbacks
are averaging an abysmal 2.0 runs per game on the road, and an
offense is last in the N.L. in batting average, 15th in runs, tied
for 14th in walks and 14th in strikeouts matches up poorly.
Meanwhile Jon Garland is who he is, a guy that pitches to contact,
but will not walk a lot of batters. And while that brings a lack of
sex appeal overall, that is an awfully effective way to pitch at this
venue. His 2-1/4.94 opening to the season is clouded by one bad
inning against St. Louis, and note that in his other four starts he
worked into the 7th inning each time. He is the prototype of the kind
of pitcher that can use Petco to his advantage, and a San Diego
lineup that will have five position players beginning the evening at
.239 or less plays well into his hands.
4* #926 KANSAS CITY over SEATTLE
Sometimes the standings can be our best friends. In what can be
billed as showdown between two teams currently in first place we
believe that one is for real and one is an imposter, and tonight?s
short line gives us the ability to go into a starting pitcher
currently on one of the worst 12-month runs in Major League history.
Yes, that last statement is a strong one, but it is true.
Seattle is 15-12 right now but there is not all that much to like ?
the Mariners have had good work at the top of their rotation from
Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard and Jerrod Washburn, but when those guys
are not on the hill this is a weak offense with an inconsistent
bullpen. And that is not much of a package to support Carlos Silva,
with the Silva run now at a frightening 2-17/7.75 since May 1st of
LY. You will be hard-pressed to ever find a pitcher that has fared
worse over a 12-month measurement. There just is nothing left in his
tank, but he has been buoyed by surprisingly good support from a weak
offense, which has meant only two losses tagged to through five
starts him despite a 7.36 ERA. The 5.4 per game of offense he has
been blessed with is not going to hold up.
Meanwhile Sidney Ponson also brings awful overall numbers, but take a
closer look ? in three home starts against the Yankees, Indians and
Tigers he worked solidly each time, but could not win because of a
lack of run support. When on his game he can throw strikes and get
ground balls, and note that he only walked one batter over 12.1
innings of his last two starts, and has had a positive ground ball to
fly ball ratio in four of five outings. He is better than the
pitching forms will show in their bottom lines, and as such we get a
lot of value behind him as those base numbers correct. With the
Royals playing with tremendous confidence as a team, and with Joakim
Soria fresh to handle the latter stages, there is excellent value to
this one.Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
Lenny Del Genio's 25* Playoff Total of the Year **5-1 Run**25* Play Over Houston/LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after the last two year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Over Houston/LA Lakers is our 25* Playoff Total of the Year.Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
Ma_t R_v_rs
150,000* NBA EZ MONEY LOCK Plus Bonus Locks
Your winners here are on:
1. 150,000? Rockets
2. 50,000? Celtics
3. 50,000? Cubs
4. 50,000? Rays
1. Seriously, are you kidding me with this number!?!?!? I can get around 10 points with Houston!?!?!?
Sure the Lakers should man up and win this game but the Rockets are not exactly chopped liver right now and for anybody to beat Yao, Artest, Scola, Brooks, Battier and this team by double digits is just asking way too much and flat out silly!
The Lakers are awesome, I am not doubting that but they are not unbelievable and unbeatable as we just saw. Kobe is as good as they come and guys like Odom and Gasol certainly have All-Star potential but let's face it, Andrew Bynum has been a total dude since returning from injury, Derek Fisher is mediocre at the very best and should once again get outplayed by the up and coming Aaron Brooks and all in all the Lakers are much too heavy of a chalk here.
Houston just looked great against the favored Blazers in that first series and continued with the phenomenal defense and overall high level of play in the opener of this series. To now ask them to pretty much crap in their pants and lay an egg just should not happen. Yao is a total mismatch who should control the paint and Brooks is easily the most talented and the best point guard on the floor.
Just look at the number of 11 1/2 in the Atlanta/Cleveland series. Now that game certainly had the potential for a 105-79 game as the Cavs at home are far superior to the Hawks. But to make this a similar number here against what is rapidly becoming an elite Rockets team is asinine, period!
This thing should come down to the last minute!
2. I do not see Dwight Howard and the Magic going up 2-0 in the series and will take my chances that the Defending Champion Celtics can cover this fairly cheap number.
The C's obviously were not ready to play in the first game after the emotionally draining series against the Bulls. Paul Pierce and the green were horrific for the first half plus a little. Doc Rivers' group did fight back though from down 28 to 3 and I do believe that comeback and fight will carry over today.
Pierce, Allen and Rondo are very very tough and without Courtney Lee again for the visitors and after the struggles late in the opener I do not see the Orlando guards being able to compete. In terms of the paint that will be controlled by Howard and the visitors but that will not offset the discrepancy in guard play.
Boston has to win this game and after the letdown on Monday I see them coming all guns ablazing in a series evening 8-10 point victory.
3. Throw out everything else here except for this:
Rich Harden against Mike Hampton!
Yes Harden was awful in that last start and yes Hampton has been better this season than most believed he would be but the bottom line is that this is a total mismatch on the mound and in the end will prove to be too much for the mediocre at the very best Astros to overcome.
I don't mind the 'Stros when getting a chunk of change in some scenarios but today they are outclassed. Chicago has the better everything in this game and I mean everything. Even if Aramis Ramirez is still out the lineup for the Cubbies today's visitors are still superior.
Houston does have an upside with guys like Berkman, Lee, Tejada and Pence but collectively this team is very very average unlike Lou's Cubs who are a 90 win type of a club, if not better.
I do not love eating chalk like this on the road but Hampton is still on his last legs and Harden still has the upside of a dominating stud. Laying a little but every now and then is not the end of the world and that is what I feel right here in this burial!
4. I have been anti these Yankees for awhile now and nothing changes today. AJ Burnett can certainly hurl a gem in any game but at this price I'm fine with the underachieving but still very talented Rays.
Joe Girardi's club is just not that good at all right now without Arod. The lineup has been fairly awful as this team is just getting older by the day. Jeter and Damon are average, Teixeira does scare me but has been awful and others like Pena, Molina, Gardner, etc. are not typical Yankees at all as they are pretty bad hitters.
Andy Sonnanstine, like the Rays as a whole, have not been as good this season as that breakout campaign he had last season but the righty is still more than capable of holding his own and with Crawford, Longoria, Pena and a still semi loaded Tampa Bay team how can you not grab this price!?!?!?
Things have not started great at all for Joe Maddon's group but there is still a ton of athleticism and ability on this Tampa roster and to be such a big dog against the very mediocre Yankees is a total no-brainer!Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
Jimmy Boyd
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | May 06 '09 (8:10p)
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox
-110 at bodog
3* MLB Mound Mismatch of the Week on White Sox -110
The Sox return home after a 5-game road trip and 4 straight losses, and you can bet they'll be out for blood tonight. They are certainly in good hands with Buehrle on the hill, who is 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA, which drops to 2.60 in home starts. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last 8 meetings in Chicago, a pathetic 7-23 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series, and 0-4 in Galarraga's last 4 starts as a road underdog. The White Sox are 7-2 in Buehrle's last 9 home starts vs. Tigers, 43-17 in Buehrle's last 60 home starts, and 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 starts. Take the Sox tonight.
MLB | May 06 '09 (10:10p)
Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
-1½+105 at sia
4* Major MLB Run Line of the Month on LA Dodgers -1.5 +105
I'll back the Dodgers on the run line tonight to get more bang for the buck. The Dodgers have won 12 straight at home to tie the modern day mark for most consecutive home wins to start a season and I don't see the worst team in the NL standing in their way of breaking the record tonight. Talented young southpaw Clayton Kershaw is yet to pick up his first win of the season so I expect a very strong outing from him tonight. While Kershaw has struggled on the road, he has been sensational in 2 home starts, posting a 0.64 ERA. Plays on home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 - good NL offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after allowing 1 run or less, are 44-8 since 1997. The Dodgers have won 6 straight at home against the Nats over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Dodgers.
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NBA Basketball Premium Picks
-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | May 06 '09 (10:35p)
Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers
-9½-110 at betus
5* Game 2 BEST BET (TNT) on Lakers -9.5
The Lakers cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series so I expect a very motivated effort tonight on their home floor. Expect the Lakers to do a better job of getting out in transition where they can exploit Yao Ming's foot speed and they take advantage of their superior athletes. Plays on all home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons so right away we see the profitability of this bounce back situation. Plus, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 12.9 points on average. The Rockets played a perfect Game 1, but I expect Coach Jackson and the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments to send a message to the Rockets tonight. On top of that, the Lakers here the experts talking about the Nuggets being the team to beat in the West right now, and I expect that will light a fire under their butts as well. I'll lay the number.Comment
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Re: 5-6-09
ROBERT FERRRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs
2-Unit Play. Take St. Louis
2-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Dodgers RL
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota
1.5-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati
Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Chicago Cubs
1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 9.5 Washington
1-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 San FranciscoComment
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