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Our 2 selections include the White Sox and the 'over' in the KC/Seattle game.
Our 2 selections include the White Sox and the 'over' in the KC/Seattle game.
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Re: 5-6-09
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (5-0 the L27 days in MLB!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the The White Sox won the AL Central last season (although they needed a one-game playoff to clinch it), going 89-74. As for the Tigers, they were one of MLB's biggest disappointments in 2008. Detroit won 95 games in 2006, making it all the way to the World Series but then missed the playoffs in 2007, with an 88-74 mark. However, off-season moves set up Detroit as one of the favorites to take the AL pennant in 2008. Instead, the Tigers flip-flopped their 2007 mark, falling to 74-88. Neither team has done too much in the early going of 2009, with Detroit going 14-12 and the White Sox 12-14. Chicago lost 8-7 in 11 innings at Kansas City on Tuesday to conclude a 1-4 road trip, while Detroit comes in having won three of its last four after a 9-0 victory over Minnesota on Tuesday. In the first game of a two-game set, it's Armando Galarraga (3-1, 3.07 ERA) vs Mark Buerhle (4-0, 3.30 ERA). Galarraga had an impressive rookie season in 2007, going 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 30 appearances (28 starts). The Tigers went 18-10 in those starts and he's off to a good start in 2009, although he is coming off his first loss of the season. He allowed five runs and eight hits while walking three in five innings of a 6-5 loss to Cleveland last Friday. Mark Buehrle has opened 2009 at 4-0. He joined the team in 2000, making 28 appearances but just three starts. He became a regular part of the rotation in 2001 and over the next eight seasons went 118-86 with a 3.78 ERA. That's an average of just under 15 wins each year. Buehrle has won at least 10 games in each of his eight previous seasons for the Chicago White Sox but he's never won his first five decisions in any of those years. Expect him to reach 5-0 tonight. He's always been a much better home pitcher than road pitcher, as from 2001-08, the White Sox are 95-47 (.669) in his home starts and 60-67 (.472) in his road starts. That home/away dichotomy was much greater last year, as Chicago was 14-3 (2.65 ERA) in his home starts but just 4-14 (5.14 ERA) in his road starts. The team is 3-0 in his home starts this year (also 2-0 on the road), meaning the White are 17-3 (85% percent) in his home starts since the beginning of last year. Detroit dominated lefties back in 2006 (35-18), then went 27-15 vs lefties in 2007 but last year the team's mark was just 26-22, finishing $0 vs the moneyline. The Tigers are 6-4 so far vs left-handed starters this year and the key point is, that for over a yearnow, Detroit no longer owns any mastery over left-handed starters. That would surely apply to a crafty veteran lefty like Buerhle, who is a DOMINANT home pitcher. Based on that, why is the price on Buerhle so cheap? Oddsmaker's Error Chi White Sox.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week-MLB (26-14 run L40 MLB plays)
My 15* NL Game of the Week is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Brewers won 8-5 last night in Pittsburgh for their 17th consecutive victory over the Pirates, the majors' longest winning streak by one team against another since 1970. No team has dominated another like this since the Orioles won 23 consecutive games against the Royals during the 1969 and 1970 seasons. The 15-12 Brewers won't get another shot at the Pirates until July 20 (in Pittsburgh) and Milwaukee opens a two-game series with the Reds tonight, in Cincinnati. The Reds are 14-12, after beating the Marlins 7-0 last night in Miami. That's pretty heady territory for a team which was 74-88 last season and 72-90 in 2007. The Reds have outscored opponents 27-11 and posted a 1.41 ERA while winning four of its last six games, with all four wins coming via a shutout. I wouldn't count on a shutout tonight by Bronson Arroyo but he is off to a 4-1 start in 2009, posting a 4.91 ERA. His first start of the year was not very good (6 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs) but he got plenty of support in an 8-6 win. However he's been extremely sharp in THREE of his last four starts, allowing just four ERs in 21.1 innings (1.69 ERA) in three wins. Arroyo had one 'ugly' start in that span, losing 10-2 to the Braves on April 25 (5.2 IP / 9 ERs). Milwaukee sends lefty Manny Parra to the mound. He dominated the eight right-handed batters in the D'backs' lineup last Friday but switch-hitting Felipe Lopez got three hits in the game. Parra pitched six innings and allowed only one earned run on three hits, striking out eight and walking four. A no decision in a 5-2 Arizona win was an improvement for him, as Parra had lost each of his first four starts this season. He is 0-4 in five starts (team is 0-5) with a pretty high ERA of 5.33. His last win came all the way back on August 20, 5-2 against Houston (5 IP / 6 hits / 2 ERs). He made four starts after that win, going 0-2 (team was 0-4) with a 5.71 ERA. He then finished the season in the bullpen. So, the Brewers have lost his last NINE starts! Arroyo allowed a run and four hits with four walks in 6.1 innings of a 6-1 win at Miller Park on April 14 and is now 8-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 career starts against the Brewers (his teams are 9-5). The Reds have so far played better on the road (10-5) than at home (4-7) but the team should come around here in its own park. The Brewers went 41-40 on the road last year, after years of terrible play away from home and are 8-6 away from Miller Park this season but backing them with Parra on the mound against a solid pitcher like Arroyo is not a good idea. NL Game of the Week 15* Cin Reds.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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Re: 5-6-09
Larry Ness 20* NBA Game of the Year
My 20* play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET. So often in handicapping the NBA playoffs, it requires a certain 'feel.' The Celtics are the defending champs and playing without Kevin Garnett plus Leon Powe (no small loss), were able to summon a "clutch effort" in Game 7 of the first round, eliminating the Bulls. Just two days later, the Celtics were forced to open their second round series vs the Magic and Boston was not able to bring its "A game." Both Allen and Rondo made just 2-of-12 FG attempts (Allen was also a pathetic 1-of-7 from three-point range), leading to the team shooting just 38.5 percent in the game. Orlando took a 54-36 halftime lead in Game 1 (Celtics failed to attempt a single free throw in the half!) and extended the lead to 65-37 early in the third quarter. However, Boston cut the deficit to four points, with a chance to make it a one-point game in the final minute, but Ray Allen's 3-pointer missed. The Magic would go on to win the game 95-90. Howard was too much inside (16 points / 22 rebounds) for Boston, while three other starters (Lewis with 18, Turkoglu with 15 and Redick with 12) joined him in double digits. Alston, who has played well filling in for the injured Nelson, had a poor game (3-of11 FGs for eight points) but Pietrus, who had barely averaged five PPG vs Philly, had 17. Lewis (right knee tendinitis) and Turkoglu (sprained left ankle) both entered the postseason with some injury concerns but both seem OK. While Perkins has been excellent in Boston's eight playoff games (12.4-12.1), Howard is unstoppable inside. The Celtics could sure use KG (last year's defensive p-o-y) and his absence may eventually cost them the series. However, we are NOT talking who will win the series, here. Rather, we are talking about Game 2. Expect Boston to win and expect them to do it with ease. Rondo's (18.8-9.4-11.1) clearly elevated his game to "elite status" among PGs, while "Big Baby" (17.4-6.5) has proven that, when given regular minutes, he can be a force. Then of course, there are future Hall-of-Famers Pierce and Allen. The Celtics were in a similar spot in Game 2 of their opening series and won that game while not covering. However, needing to win one of the next two games in Chicago, the Celtics wasted little time, posting a dominating 107-86 win in Game 3. Three straight overtime classics ensued, setting up a Game 7, in which Boston used a 29-11 second quarter to seize control of the deciding game (and never letting go), winning 109-99. The 'feel' here is that Boston wins and wins it with "room to spare."
2nd Round GOY 20* Bos Celtics.Comment
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