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Re: 5-7-09
bob balfe
hawks +13
bob balfe
hawks +13
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Re: 5-7-09
Jimmy Boyd
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | May 07 '09 (7:10p)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers
+100 at 5dimes
3* N.L. Central Game of the Week on Brewers +100
The Reds don't have much of a home field advantage as they are just 4-8 at home this season. The Brew Crew are on fire, having won 4 in a row and 12 of their last 15, including yesterday's 15-3 blowout over Cincy. The Brewers have the big edge on the hill tonight with Looper, who is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.10, including 1-0 on the road with an ERA of 0.00. Owings is just 1-3 with an ERA of 4.84. Looper is a sensational 4-1 when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.878 in his career and his teams are 6-1 against the money line in his seven career starts. Owings is 0-3 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.714 in 3 career starts. The Brewers are 7-1 in their last 8 road games and 13-2 against the money line with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Back the red hot Brewers.
MLB | May 07 '09 (8:10p)
Det Tigers vs Chi W Sox Chi W Sox
-106 at 5dimes
4* Major Thursday Night *BASES BEST BET* on White Sox -106
The Sox return home after a 5-game road trip and 4 straight losses, and you can bet they'll be out for blood tonight. Last night's rain out gives them even a little bit more time to focus to make sure they get the job done here. They are certainly in good hands with Buehrle on the hill, who is 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA, which drops to 2.60 in home starts. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last 8 meetings in Chicago, a pathetic 7-23 in their last 30 during game 1 of a series, and 0-4 in Galarraga's last 4 starts as a road underdog. The White Sox are 7-2 in Buehrle's last 9 home starts vs. Tigers, 43-17 in Buehrle's last 60 home starts, and 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 starts. Take the Sox tonight.
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NBA | May 07 '09 (8:05p)
Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Total
177½ ov-110 at betus
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight!Comment
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Re: 5-7-09
m@linsky
#955 SAN FRANCISCO over COLORADO
Matt Cain is a lot better than Jason Marquis. The season-to-date
numbers do not necessarily show that, and the 5-1 Colorado win in San
Francisco in a hook up of these same starters on Saturday certainly
does not. But that sets us up with a nice underdog price that we
would not see otherwise, and we will not hesitate to take it.
Yes, Cain was roughed up by the Rockies in that last outing,
including a pair of Ryan Spillborghs home runs. But guys with his
kind of stuff are ideal bounce-back candidates off of a bad outing,
and note just how strong Cain was in this role LY ? he had seven
games in which he allowed five runs or more, and in the ensuing mound
appearance worked to a solid 2.25 over 48 innings. And behind him
will be a lineup that will be a little fresher than usual for a
night-to-day setting, with Edgar Renteria, Bengie Molina, Aaron
Rowand and Randy Wynn all have early exits in Wednesday?s blowout,
while the key arms in the bullpen were also saved.
Is there anything to fear in the 4-1/3.31 Marquis jump from the gate?
We don?t see it. Before joining the Rockies he had toiled at a 5.08
clip over 553 innings the past three seasons, when neither the
Cardinals nor Cubs saw enough in his stuff to keep him around. What
has happened so far has been more a tribute to the vagaries of
baseball than his actual work ? his strikeout rate is actually
lower than in those last three campaigns. But here is the rub
? there are 120 pitchers that have worked at least 25 innings so far,
and Marquis checks in at #114 in difficulty of batters faced, and
#111 on BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). He has not been
anything special, and a guy allowing a lot of contact is not a prime
candidate to be successful at Coors Field, with all of that room that
has to be covered by the outfielders. And there are plenty of
late-game opportunities against a Colorado bullpen with nearly a full
run higher allowance than their Giant counterparts (4.84 vs. 3.94),
and one that is still searching to get the right fit from the
available candidates.
4* #963 CUBS over HOUSTON
Last night we had a prime spot to back Rich Harden in this matchup,
while also playing into a vulnerable Houston starter and a depleted
bullpen. This formula is the same.
Ted Lilly brings both good form and a chip on his shoulder to the
mound tonight, and that is a nice combination to have with a talented
performer. Although he was given credit for a win in his season
opener on this mound it was nothing to be proud of ? he was rocked
for four home runs in just five innings. We believe that was nothing
more than just an aberration. Since that game he has worked to a 2.02
tune over four starts, with 23 strikeouts vs. only 17 hits allowed,
and with only two of those hits leaving the park. And it is not as
though the Houston lineup or this venue should be cause for concern ?
the prior three seasons he has handled the Astros to a 3-0/1.89 tune
over five starts, including a 1-0/2.19 over 12.1 innings here. We can
call on him for a good outing tonight, and also to get plenty of
offensive support.
We are not sure that Russ Ortiz brings anything to create the belief
that he can still be part of a Major League rotation. Arizona let him
go after an 0-5/7.54 in 2006. Baltimore did the same after an
0-3/8.48 that same season. The Giants saw little reason to bring him
back after a 5.51 in 12 appearances in 2007. Yet Houston is desperate
for another arm, which is about all that he can bring. In three
starts he has lasted only 14.2 innings, throwing a laborious 311
pitches in those games, yet he somehow managed to walk away with a
pair of wins and a no-decision. That kind of fortune will not last,
particularly against a strong Chicago lineup that gets a second look,
after getting to him for five runs (four earned) in four innings of
an earlier relief appearance from this mound. And with Jose Valverde
and Doug Brocail on the DL, there is not much at all to fear from the
Houston bullpen for the latter stages.
4* #968 KANSAS CITY over SEATTLE
Yesterday we turned a 4* in this matchup at a short price range,
noting not only how bad Carlos Silva has been, but also that the
long-term prospects for these teams do not call for pricing at this
level. We believe that the Royals are for real, with enough talent to
compete in the A. L. Central all season, while the Mariners field a
lineup that just can not hold up over the long haul. So in a similar
price range we play again today.
Jerrod Washburn is commanding some respect in the line off of his
3-1/2.97 opening to the season, quite a contrast from the 23-43/4.55
in his first three seasons in a Seattle uniform. But we are not sure
there has been any real turnaround. There are 120 pitchers that have
worked at least 25 innings so far, and his difficulty of batters
faced checks in at #111, which paved the way for his decent bottom
line. And while he talked about a new sinker in his repertoire being
a big help in the spring, there is little evidence of it on the field
? in back-to-back outings he has had more fly ball outs than
strikeouts and ground outs combined, and you know by now our feeling
when we see a pitcher working with that kind of ratio. And with
Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley on the DL, the bullpen does not bring
any fears for the latter stages.
The Kansas City bullpen is laid out ideally here off of Sidney
Ponson?s strong Wednesday showing, and Brian Bannister can build a
bridge to that pen. Bannister does not throw the ball past hitters,
but he does bring command of the strike zone, and his 2-0/1.96
opening has him at the right confidence level. When facing a weak
offense it is all about making them put the ball in play to beat you,
and the Mariners are #13 in the A.L. in batting average, #12 in runs,
#12 in home runs and tied for 14th in walks. There just is not a
whole lot there.Comment
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Re: 5-7-09
wunderdogsportspicks
Game: Atlanta at Cleveland (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +13 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total OVER 178.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Atlanta Hawks are getting no respect, or is it that the Cleveland Cavaliers have now become over-valued over their five straight double-digit playoff wins? The last time these teams met in Cleveland, the Cavs were listed as an eight-point favorite. But Cleveland is so hot right now and this 5-point jump in the line is justified, right? Coming into that last game, the Cavs had won 12 of 13 and were red-hot. Atlanta was coming into that game with a 2-6 road mark in their previous eight road games, with the wins coming against Washington and Sacramento - the two worst teams in the league. Suddenly, this line is up to 13? This line provides value on the dog right off the bat. Atlanta got completely shut down in game one but this team is 16-5 ATS over the past two seasons revenging a loss in which they scored under 85 points. This season they are 14-4 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss. Atlanta showed in their series with Miami that they are a see-saw team, alternating between terrible and great performances. I look for them to give it their all tonight and surprise a lot of people. I am also going with the OVER here. Round two game two playoff games over the last six years have outscored game one games by 243 points in 24 games. That is 10.1 points per game! The Hawks have produced four of their five lowest totals on the road this season in the playoffs, and they will make a more representative showing tonight with their backs to the wall. This total has dropped from game one and the Hawks can score against this Cavs team. Atlanta scored just 72 points in game one and that's what the public is focusing on. But, in their two other games in Cleveland this year, they got 96 points in each. Also, 18 of last 25 games (72%) between these two teams has resulted in an OVER. I like the Hawks and the OVER.
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Game: Texas at Oakland (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Oakland -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Texas Rangers carry a potent lineup, but their hitting hasn't been able to out-hit their poor pitching, especially on the road where they have been outscored by nearly a run per game. Brandon McCarthy seldom pitches past the sixth inning, and hasn't in any start this season, thus exposing the Rangers’ pen. On the road, McCarthy has allowed 15 hits in just 11 innings, and his teams are just 5-16 in his last 21 road starts. The A's have high hopes for Trevor Cahill. Cahill has plus stuff, and has allowed two runs or less in four of his five starts so far. Certainly the A's have the pitching advantage in this one, so I'll back them at home.
Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Cincinnati +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 5 to win 2.9)
Milwaukee tries to win their fifth straight but I like the Reds here. While the Brewers' bats have gotten the attention for their performance over the past seven games, what has gone largely unnoticed is that the Reds have held their last seven opponents to just 3.7 runs per game. Mixed in there were two bad performances but they also have shut out four of their last seven foes. In fact, Cincinnati has held 14 opponents already this season to 3 runs or less. I really like the fact that the Reds are coming off an embarrassing 15-3 loss to the Brewers. Milwaukee could be bit overly relaxed here while Cincinnati will be motivated to atone. The Reds are 14-3 the past three seasons in home games after allowing 10+ runs last game. They are 11-2 to the runline the past two seasons after allowing 10+ runs. I like Cincy's chances of winning this game but I really like them with the one-run insurance the runline provides.
Game: Philadelphia at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Mets -135 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Mets and Phillies played a real pitching duel yesterday as the Mets prevailed 1-0 on an unearned run. The Mets send Mike Pelphrey to the hill to square off against Jamie Moyer. Pelphrey had a shaky start, but has looked more like the pitcher we saw last year in his last two outings, allowing just five earned runs in the two starts. The Phillies have been a much better offensive team over the last couple years vs. left-hand pitching. Moyer is struggling out of the gate, and may be showing signs of age, but has some decent numbers against the Mets. The Mets are also 17-8 in Pelphrey’s last 25 starts. I like the UNDER too. New York is 8-3 UNDER this season at home and 8-4 UNDER in division games. The UNDER is 11-3 in the last 14 times the Phillies allowed two runs or less in their previous game. With Jerry Manuel as manager, the Mets are a perfect 8-0 UNDER at home following a one run win. I'll go Mets, and UNDER here.
Game: Chicago Cubs at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Houston +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Cubs continue to be a different team on the road than they are at home. While they have dominated opponents at home, they were basically a breakeven road team last year and that trend continues this season. Ted Lilly had a tough outing against the Astros earlier, and after struggling early, they are finally swinging the bats now. After struggling early, Russ Ortiz has pitched the Astros to wins in each of his last three starts. Lilly seems to save his best stuff for the better teams, as the Cubs are just 3-12 in his last 15 road starts against teams with a losing record. The Astros have collected a lot of wins at home against left-hand starters where they are 66-32 in their last 98 at home against southpaws. I also like the UNDER here. Houston is 16-9 UNDER this season including 9-4 at home. In division games they are 14-4 UNDER! The Astros are also 20-6-1 to the UNDER following a loss. They are also 21-9 UNDER the past two seasons following two striaght OVERs. I'll go with Houston, and the UNDER here.
Game: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago White Sox -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Mark Buehrle is 4-0 so far and a win tonight gives him something he has never achieved, even in 2002 when he won 19 starts - five straight wins to start a season. He's posted a 3.30 ERA which is 2.60 at home. He's opposed by Armando Galarraga who has struggled of late, walking 11 batters in 16 innings in his last three starts. The Sox are 61-34 at home the past two seasons including 23-12 at home to a line of +125 to -125. Over that span, they are 32-11 at home vs. division foes and 16-4 if coming off two straight losses! Beuhrle is 19-3 at home during May games. I like the White Sox to break out of their mini-slump and notch the win in this game.
Game: Washington at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -150 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2)
The Dodgers took a real blow with the news that Manny Ramirez will be suspended for 50 games, due to testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. That may be the only bad news for the Dodgers so far this season. They are off to a 13-0 start at home, and facing the lowly Nationals, who have been one of the worst road teams in baseball in recent memory, shouldn't challenge the streak. The Nats are a dismal 24-56 in their last 80 as an underdog, while the Dodgers are an amazing 39-12 in their last 51 home games. Enough said. Dodgers get the call here.Comment
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Re: 5-7-09
m@linsky
#716 CLEVELAND over ATLANTA
So often the focus in terms of finding the edges needed to beat the pointspread come from a “Why” perspective, but in this case it is more of “Why Not”. We could repeat Tuesday’s 4* Cleveland analysis nearly verbatim here, and it holds up.
The Cavaliers have played nine home playoff games the past two seasons, and have out-scored the opposition by 15.4 per game. And once again let’s note that the tally includes a +40 in three home games against a Boston team that went on to win the NBA Championship. They coasted by 27 on Tuesday despite having to shake off the rust of having been idle for over a full week, and they got a convincing margin despite the fact that the starters only had to play 159 floor minutes. They shot well, but not remarkably (46.8 percent, 8-20 triples and 17-24 free throws), and the defensive outing was mediocre by their standards, allowing 43.8 percent from the field and 38.9 from 3-point range. Compare this to 47.8 home shooting during the regular season, 39.5 triples, 77.8 free throws, and defensive allowances of 41.6 from the field and 32.7 on triples. In other words, they got that blowout without doing anything all that special. Now they are back in more of a playing rhythm, and a fresh team with an outstanding focus and sense of purpose is not going to come out flat here.
Then there are the Hawks. They are 1-7 on the road in playoff games the past two seasons, and the defeats have come by margins of 34, 29, 27, 26, 24, 23 and 19. The average defeat in that span is almost double this pointspread, which shows how much difficult the markets are having getting away from basic power ratings and moving towards the true realities. The Hawks lack talent, depth, leadership and character, which explains not only how they fall behind by such margins, but also how they fail to respond after being knocked down. And when a team gets so accustomed to these beatings in can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which we believe it really has for this group. Now they have to go forward with some difficult matchups, particularly from a defense that is just too soft to take the Cavaliers out of their preferred flow (only seven turnovers on Tuesday), and one that will be even worse without Al Horford at 100 percent.
We do not see any compelling reasons why Game #2 is any different from the opener of this series, and will ride the home team again to a decisive rout.Comment
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Re: 5-7-09
Stu Single Game - Box 1
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Stu's 1,000 Dime NBA Playoff High Roller No Brainer
Atlanta Hawks @ Clevleand Cavaliers 8:05 PM ET
Play On: Cavaliers -12'
This series could very well be headed in the direction of a four game sweep by the Cavs. LeBron is focused and electric. The Cavs are red hot behind their MVP leader and they have covered nine in a row. They keep moving the lines up in these Cleveland home games hoping they can lure the other side but I just don't think it is enough and as much as I hate to lay two touchdowns I can't find one reason to get with Atlanta. They play great "D" at times but will have to be very intense on the defensive side of the ball while not taking a possesion off on offense. The Cavs did not play thier best game and still won by 27 in Game one. It won't be easy but with a bulging bankroll we'll play the Cavs to cover this one again.
Play on the Clevland Cavaliers minus the points as a 1,000 Dime selection.
Stu's 100 Dime MLB Winner
Milwaukee Brewers (Looper) @ Cincinnati Reds (Owings) 7:10
Play On: Brewers -108
The Brewers bats came alive last night and they aren't going to sleep tonight against Micah Owings. When the Brew Crew score runs they are tough to beat and with Looper throwing well and the Crew winning four of his first five starts he will have no trouble with the Reds and Owings who is 0-3 lifetime versus the Brewers.
Play on the Milwaukee Brewers (-108) as a 100 Dime selection.Comment
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