5-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

WUNDERDOG

Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)

The news for the Yankees just keeps getting worse. Last night Jose Molina pulled a quad muscle, and that leaves the Yankees with no experienced big league catcher, with Jorge Posada already on the shelf. They have lost their top two bullpen pieces in Bruny and Marte, who are both on the DL. Xavier Nady, the projected everyday right fielder, is gone for the year. Then the unthinkable happened last night as Mariano Rivera gives up back-to-back HRs in the ninth. That makes four he has given up already, matching his total from all of last year! CC Sabathia was supposed to be the savior of the pitching staff, but he hasn't looked big-time. He hasn't won a start since April 11, and the Yankees are now on a six- game losing streak. Jeremy Guthrie is the only bona fide starter on the O's staff that gives them a chance to win each time out. Over his career, he has a winning record vs. the Yankees. Too many things going wrong for the Yanks right now, with the value Baltimore here and I'll go with the Birds in this one.

Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +1.5 runs -110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

I wrote significantly about what I liked about the Baltimore value here, but that confidence increases on the runline. CC Sabathia has struggled all season, and now he must throw to a minor league catcher that has never caught him before. That also means the Birds are going to be aggressive on the bases, and steal some bases. They have their best chance in this series with Guthrie on the mound, and I will also play them on the runline.

Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.1)

The Milwaukee Brewers were expected to take a step back without Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia in the rotation, but here they are with the same number of wins as the Cubs through the first month. The Cubs will recall Randy Wells from AAA Iowa to get the start here, and he has a total of five big league innings under his belt. So being his first big league start, and on the road, expect the nerves to be running high. Dave Bush gets the ball for the Brewers and after a lousy start to the season he has pitched well over his last three games. The Brewers have been getting better pitching than the Cubs on the season, and with a rookie going on the road, I have to go with the Brewers in this one.

Game: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +160 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.2)

I shared my thoughts on the moneyline in this one, but I'm also turning to a runline opportunity here. Dave Bush has had somewhat of a pedestrian career, but he has been much above that while pitching at home. Bush has led the Brewers to a 23-10 mark over his last 33 home starts. He goes against a rookie today making his major league debut on the road as a starter, and I like the big advantage for the Brewers here. I'll also take them on the runline.

Game: Florida at Colorado (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 11 -130 (risk 2 to win 1.5)

It has been a rough start for Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, as he has yet to produce a quality start in six appearances on the season. His saving grace here is that he is facing a team he has done as well against as any other over his career. Nolasco has a career 2.04 ERA against the Rockies, and if he is going to produce a good start this will be where he gets it. Jason Hammel has pitched much better, and his last start was a gem over the Giants where he shut them out over six innings, lowering his ERA to 3.45 in the process. This is a favorable pitching matchup for both pitchers, and I like this one to finish UNDER the total.

Game: Washington at Arizona (9:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

This one is hard to figure from the total standpoint. The Diamondbacks are averaging a major league low in runs scored at 3.6 a game, but at the same time are big-time on defense, ranked No. 8 in runs allowed per game. This doesn't look to me like the spot for a National League total to be in double-digits. The Nats are far from a consistent run-producing team, and they have played UNDER in six of their last seven after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The D-backs have played 8-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 after a loss. These teams have also played four of their last five to the UNDER, and when playing in Arizona they have played to a mark of 11-4 to the UNDER in their last 15. I will go with the UNDER in this one.

Game: Toronto at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +100 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)

The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a big start, and are the first team in baseball to reach 20 wins. Are they the Tampa Bay of this year? I don't think so. They lost 200+ innings from AJ Burnett, and over the course of the season that will show. They were also one of the worst teams in baseball against left-hand pitching last year and finished dead last in the American League at 3.8 runs per game. Scott Richmond has given the Jays’ staff a lift as he has pitched very well so far, but still only has 10 big league starts under his belt. Josh Outman has been quite pedestrian for the A's, but he'll get a chance to face a lineup that struggled over the long haul last year against southpaws, so I'm goin’ with the A's in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Antony Dinero

Lakers at Rockets
Pick: Under 195.5

Unless there's OT, it's hard to envision this game going over -- even if Kobe goes off. The Lakers aren't as explosive on the road as they are at Staples, and Yao will have his problems getting the Rockets going with the constant doubles he'll see. Still, Houston will control the elaborate pace, get enough stops down the stretch and capitalize on the absence of Derek Fisher down the stretch, capturing an exciting Game 3. Take the Rockets and the under.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Keith Fredrick

Boston at Orlando
Play: Under 189

In the last 16 games this series has played in Orlando there have been 12 unders and only 4 overs ( 7 of last 8 have gone under). The Magic have had 6 of their last 7 go under the total at home off an away loss and have also gone under the total in 6 of their last 7 home games. When Boston has hit 50% or better on its shots and then plays on the road they have had 13 unders and only 1 over. While the Celtics have been an over team in the playoffs when looking at REGULATION play the total points in the 3 games in Chicago were 193, 192 & 192 (the two teams actually scored 100 OT pts in the Windy City) and Orlando is a much better defensive team than were the Bulls (#3 vs #20 in home D).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Mark Franco

LA Lakers at Houston
Play: Over 194

The first two games in this series have been playing to the Lakers pace which is what coach Phil Jackson is trying to instill in this Lakers team. The Rockets have to play physical and have showed they can stand up to LA and play down low and get points off transition. My play is a up and down game in Houston so OVER is the play.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Stephen Nover

Braves (Reyes) +$1.65 at Phillies (Hamels)

Anyone fearing Cole Hamels right now? I'm not. The oddsmaker has installed the Phillies as a big favorite because of the reputations of Hamels and Braves starter Jo-Jo Reyes. Both reputations, though, are very misleading right now.

Hamels is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA this season. He's given up 27 hits and struck out 15, while allowing five homers in only 17 2/3 innings. Clearly he is out of sync becasue of injuries. He last pitched on April 28. He has been dealing with elbow, shoulder and ankle injuries.

The Braves are expected to get back All-Star catcher Brian McCann from the DL tonight. Chipper Jones rested on Thursday, so he'll be ready to go. Atlanta has won five of its last six road games. The Braves have won four of the past five times in Philadelphia.

People are going to be leery about backing the Braves here because of Reyes. But let's look closer at the young southpaw. He was called up two years ago after only six Triple A starts at just 22 years old. He wasn't ready at that stage and he finished with a 6.21 ERA.

Reyes was called up to the big leagues again last year when John Smoltz was hurt. He went 3-11 with a 5.81 ERA. This season he's 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA. So where is the improvement?

Look inside the numbers. Reyes has given up 16 hits in 18 innings. He has a two-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio with a ratio of 31 ground ball outs to 10 fly ball outs. He's surrendered just one home run. Another stat to chart his improvement is he's averaging 14.6 pitches per inning. Last year, he was below that level only three times in 22 starts.

Keep in mind, too, the Braves have not given Reyes much offensive support scoring just seven runs in his three starts. Reyes can neutralize the tough Philadelphia left-handed power bats of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

ATS Lock Club
4 ROCKETS

Financial
4 CELTICS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

NSA.....NBA Boston @ Orlando 7:05 PM EST 20* Boston +5
MLB Tampa Bay @ Boston 7:05 PM EST 20* Boston +100
NBA LA Lakers @ Houston 9:35 PM EST 10* Lakers -1
MLB Detroit @ Cleveland 7:05 PM EST 10* Detroit +120
MLB Texas @ White Sox 8:10 PM EST 10* White Sox -115
MLB Toronto @ Oakland 10:05 PM EST 10* Toronto -115

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Matt Rivers

For Friday take the Rays at Fenway Park.

Last week Brad Penny and James Shields went at it and it was the home Rays who prevailed thanks to two runs in the fourth inning. More times than not I would back the losing team as revenge seems to occur a lot of the time. But Penny is not the same guy we have seen over the years as something is just not right and in the end today with Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury banged up I'll take my chances on Shields and the Rays. Yes Penny was better in that last quality start but I do not see that as a sign of things to come at all. If he hurls another solid six innings then maybe I'll start to change my tune but no way can I do that right now.

Tampa has had Boston's number for awhile now. Last season Joe Maddon's club continuosly beat Terry Francona's, including the ALCS and things have not really changed all that much this season.

Pena, Longoria, Crawford and today's visitors have not been that great early on this season but with the clear superior hurler and the healthier and possibly overall superior club makes me fine with the boys from the Trop.

I'm not calling this a total steal at all as the BoSox are still very good and could win this game but the way Penny has been, more times than not, I just do not see him able to muster enough to outpitch a borderline stud in Shields.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

LEE KOSTROSKI

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Kansas City Royals

The road team has won 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams and Kansas City should continue a red hot six-game winning streak in this series opener. Kansas City has been one of the most profitable teams in baseball so far this season and the Royals have out-scored opponents by 32 runs in just 29 games this season. Kansas City is 8-5 in road games and 10-6 in games against right-handed starters. This is clearly a different Royals team and a team that is ready to win now after years of rebuilding. Gil Meche has been a reliable option at the top of the rotation and he has just one bad start to his credit in six outings this season. Meche is yet to allow a home run in 37 innings pitched and he is backed up by an excellent bullpen that has some of the best numbers in the AL.

The Angels have been a perennial playoff team but injuries have taken a significant toll already this season. The pitching staff has been decimated with injuries which has forced Matt Palmer into the rotation. Palmer pitched well in New York in his last start but he has only pitched in five career big league games and the overall numbers are mediocre. He has benefited from strong run support to pick up two wins and he could be exposed by a Royals team that is hitting well and will have a bit more film on him. Though a rookie, Palmer is 30-years old and has the stuff a of a career minor league forced into action, rather than a young player on the rise.

By a wide margin, the Angels have featured the worst bullpen in baseball. Los Angeles relievers own a collective ERA of 7.52 while opponents are hitting .311. The Angels have blown five save situations and taken eight losses from relievers while picking up a win in the bullpen just once. The Angels bullpen has allowed nearly three times as many runs as the Royals bullpen this season. Given that advantage and featuring a pitcher much more likely to go deep into the game the Royals are an attractive play in a nearly evenly priced match-up.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

TeddyCovers

Boston Celtics
Toronto Blue Jays
Braves/Phillies over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Al DeMarco

Friday's Play
5 Dime Run Line Release

New York Yankees (Sabathia) -1 1/2 Runs over Baltimore (Guthrie)

The Yankees arrive in Baltimore with a disappointing 13-15 record and a five-game losing streak after Mariano Rivera served up back-to-back homers for the first time in his career in yesterday's loss to Tampa. If ever there was a must-win game for New York, it's tonight, and the Bombers have three things going for them in 1) the anticipated return of A-Rod, 2) a struggling opponent in the Orioles, and 3) one of the best big game pitchers around in CC Sabathia. Yes, I know Sabathia has failed to live up to expectations so far with a 1-3 record and 4.85 ERA in six starts, but if you recall he also struggled out of the box last season. But after nine days of rain on the East Coast, the sun is shining today and the black cloud that's been following the lefthander and his teammates will clear tonight. Sabathia has always fared well against Baltimore, going 5-1 with a 3.01 ERA in 10 career starts. And the O's are 1-3 in home night starts versus southpaws this season.
Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie bested Sabathia when they met April 6 in New York, the first of his two straight wins to start the season. But the righthander has struggled since, going 0-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last four outings, allowing 37 baserunners in 23.2 innings pitched.
New York's problem hasn't been its offense as its averaged 6.2 runs in its last nine games despite the ongoing struggles of another high-priced off-season free-agent addition, Mark Teixeira, who is batting just .198. But he will undoubtedly see better pitches out of the three hole with A-Rod hitting cleanup.The Orioles did just sweep a brief two-game home set against the Twins, but this is still a team that had lost 15 of its previous 19 games. And they've scored more than four runs in a game just three times in their last 10 outings. Personally, I never play anything over -150, and you don't need to be paying a handicapper to tell you to bet an overwhelming favorite anyway. Yet tonight's price ranges between 155 and 160 as I post this analysis on Friday afternoon making New York a tempting moneyline selection. However, New York's offense has not been a problem and with Rodriguez's return, it will only get better. Pitching has been the culprit behind the team's dreadful start, but anticipating a solid performance from Sabathia, his first in pinstripes, I'm more than willing to lay the 1 1/2 runs to take the Yankees at near pick-em on the Run Line.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Drew Gordon

Today's Games...

1. 300,000? Magic
2. 50,000? Marlins

1. Magic- I love these kind of situations. So, no Rafer Alston for the Magic tonight, so therefore the Celtics "must" be the play, right? WRONG! Guys, I can't tell you how many times I've seen average bettors jump aboard the wrong side because of an injury or suspension, only to see the short-handed team "step up" and deliver the winner. Case in point tonight...

So how big a loss is Alston? Well, let's look at Game 2, where he went 3 of 11 for 7 points, dished out 5 assists, and committed 2 turnovers in 29 minutes... Not particularly impressive if you ask me. Let's take it one step further, how did his backup, and tonight's starter, Anthony Johnson do? He went 2 of 3 for 5 points, dished out 7 assists and had ZERO turnovers in just 18 minutes! I'm not saying Johnson is the better player, but what I am saying is the difference between the two players is relatively negligble... So basing your decision to back the Celtics on Alston's absence is false logic.

Next, is analyzing Game 2 overall. Look guys, I had the Celtics as my Top Play that day, BUT you have to admit that we were lucky to have Eddie House explode in that contest. If not for House, who knows how the game would have went, and quite frankly, I seriously doubt he catches fire like that again tonight, as the Magic will adjust their defense. Although they got outplayed Wednesday, overall I still see a ton of match up edges for the Magic, especially returning home on friendly rims.

That brings me to my last point, the match ups for Game 3. Let me make this crystal clear: Dwight Howard will not get outplayed by Perkins again tonight, plain and simple. And I continue to believe that Rashard Lewis is a match up nightmare for the Celtics, who do not have the "athletic length" Kevin Garnett used to slow him down in the past. And again, let's not get too carried away with Eddie House, as sharpshooter is bench player for a reason (inconsistency, bad defense). In the end, its bounce back time for the Magic and I can think of no better place than Amway Arena for them to get it done tonight. Howard and company circle the wagons at home, getting the solid home win and cover Friday.

Take the Magic over the Celtics as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Marlins- I'll be the first to admit Nolasco has not lived up to his 2008 form this season, but let's not shut the door on him just yet, especially in this match up.

Why? Well if Nolasco is going to get it turned around against anyone, its going to be against a team he's dominated, like say, they Rockies! He's 2-0 with an stellar 1.69 ERA in 2 career starts against Colorado, incl. allowing 3 runs over 8 innings with an impressive 13 strikeouts for the win last August, in his last start against them!

The fact Nolasco is being opposed by the Rockies Jason Hammel is also good news for Marlins-backers. Although Hammel was solid in his last start, tossing 6 scoreless at the Giants, don't be fooled! He's posted a ridiculous 9.53 ERA at Coors this season in 2 outings, including getting tagged for 4 runs on 7 hits in 3 innings against the Padres (not exactly a lively offense) in his last one there!

Finally, the Marlins have lost 6 of their last 7, and quite frankly, are desperate for a win. Two things they've lacked over their losing streak: consistent pitching and timely hitting, should return in this match up, as I firmly believe the Fish have a strong edge on the mound. Hammel has been a disaster at Coors, and that's exactly what the Marlins bats need to get back on track. Look for the Fish to take care of business tonight at Coors.

Take the Marlins behind Nolasco over the Rockies and Hammel in this MLB match up

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Dave M@linsky

6* Under 195 lakers/houston

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Anthony Redd

Friday's Card

15 Dime Rockets (1st Half)

5 Dime Magic (1st Half)

5 Dime Rockets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-8-09

Rickenbock


**Top Play**


Over Lakers/Rockets