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Re: 5-8-09
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
3 units ATS: Boston Celtics +4
Well, both of these teams have taken turns beating up on each other on the scoreboard, with Magic blowing out to a big HT lead in game on and then holding on for a 5 point win, and Celtics following that with a much better performance in a wire to wire game 2 win. But a foolish “head slap” in the third quarter of game two may go a long way in determining the outcome of game 3, as with magic point guard Rafer Alston suspended and #1 point guard Jameer Nelson already injured and out for the year, the Orlando Magic are running out of point guards. The NBA suspended Alston for this game after viewing films of a blatant “head slap” delivered by a frustrated Alston to the back of Eddie House’s head (a really stupid move, despite Alston’s contention afterward that House had goaded him into doing it). So with Alston in the NBA’s “dog house,” that leaves the point guard dutires for Magic in the hands of 34-year-old Anthony Johnson and seldom-used Tyronn Lue for this Game 3 against the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference semifinal series. And we well remember how the Magic struggled mightily for a stretch in mid-season after Nelson went down with his season ending shoulder injury, until Alston (acquired in a trade with Houston during All Star break) had played enough games with Magic to get comfortable directing their offense.
Moreover, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team, we’re not sure they have the “character” necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. Unlike the Celtics, who came back and almost caught Orlando in game one after a horrible first half (where they showed the obvious “wear and tear” from their tough 7 games series against Chicago, and were down by 18 at HT), the Magic pretty much “packed it in” after getting behind early in game two. And physical play has frustrated the Magic throughout the playoffs and ballooned into a series of foolish retaliations, a weakness that crafty Celtics head coach Doc Rivers will try to continue to take advantage of as the series shifts to Orlando, tied at 1-1. For example, Dwight Howard lost his cool and elbowed Samuel Dalembert in the head in game 5 of Magic’s first round Philly series to draw a suspension for Game 6, although Orlando still managed to win over the “sorry” Sixers, in a game where Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu was ejected for an incident with Dalembert. Then the usually calm J.J. Redick was ordered out of the arena Wednesday in game two at Boston for arguing with officials after he fouled out. Part of being a good head coach is keeping your players under control, something that is not easy when half the players on the team make more $ than the head coach does, but Boston’s Rivers does a much better job of it (and all other aspects of coaching) than Magic’s Van Gundy.
But let's also take a look at some numbers and records which are relevant to this game. First, Boston is 3-1 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 2-0 TY, with a ten point win and then a two point loss in March, a game in which Kevin Garnett played, but only sparingly (just 16 minutes, as he was being worked slowly back into the line up after missing several games with a knee injury), and was not a factor, scoring just four points on 2-5 shooting. And in that game, Magic stud Dwight Howard was dominant, scoring 24 points on 11-18 shooting and grabbing 21 off the glass, but Magic as a team shot just 37%, and frittered away most of an 8 point lead after three quarters to end up victorious by just two and not cover ATS, allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
And how has Boston done TY on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two)? Other than their two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 4-1 ATS (with average margin of loss of just one point) in their other five road games against such teams, with two ATS wins at Orlando and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, and a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples being their only ATS loss out of the five. On the other hand, the Magic were just 4-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of just 3 points in those games.
So combining and averaging the results of these two teams in these relevant representative games, and counting the two Celtics-Magic games in Orlando TY just twice instead of four times, we get an 8-5 ATS advantage for Boston, and a projected one point win for Magic, good enough to support this 3 unit ATS pick on Boston getting +4> points.
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
3 units ATS: Boston Celtics +4
Well, both of these teams have taken turns beating up on each other on the scoreboard, with Magic blowing out to a big HT lead in game on and then holding on for a 5 point win, and Celtics following that with a much better performance in a wire to wire game 2 win. But a foolish “head slap” in the third quarter of game two may go a long way in determining the outcome of game 3, as with magic point guard Rafer Alston suspended and #1 point guard Jameer Nelson already injured and out for the year, the Orlando Magic are running out of point guards. The NBA suspended Alston for this game after viewing films of a blatant “head slap” delivered by a frustrated Alston to the back of Eddie House’s head (a really stupid move, despite Alston’s contention afterward that House had goaded him into doing it). So with Alston in the NBA’s “dog house,” that leaves the point guard dutires for Magic in the hands of 34-year-old Anthony Johnson and seldom-used Tyronn Lue for this Game 3 against the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference semifinal series. And we well remember how the Magic struggled mightily for a stretch in mid-season after Nelson went down with his season ending shoulder injury, until Alston (acquired in a trade with Houston during All Star break) had played enough games with Magic to get comfortable directing their offense.
Moreover, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team, we’re not sure they have the “character” necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. Unlike the Celtics, who came back and almost caught Orlando in game one after a horrible first half (where they showed the obvious “wear and tear” from their tough 7 games series against Chicago, and were down by 18 at HT), the Magic pretty much “packed it in” after getting behind early in game two. And physical play has frustrated the Magic throughout the playoffs and ballooned into a series of foolish retaliations, a weakness that crafty Celtics head coach Doc Rivers will try to continue to take advantage of as the series shifts to Orlando, tied at 1-1. For example, Dwight Howard lost his cool and elbowed Samuel Dalembert in the head in game 5 of Magic’s first round Philly series to draw a suspension for Game 6, although Orlando still managed to win over the “sorry” Sixers, in a game where Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu was ejected for an incident with Dalembert. Then the usually calm J.J. Redick was ordered out of the arena Wednesday in game two at Boston for arguing with officials after he fouled out. Part of being a good head coach is keeping your players under control, something that is not easy when half the players on the team make more $ than the head coach does, but Boston’s Rivers does a much better job of it (and all other aspects of coaching) than Magic’s Van Gundy.
But let's also take a look at some numbers and records which are relevant to this game. First, Boston is 3-1 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 2-0 TY, with a ten point win and then a two point loss in March, a game in which Kevin Garnett played, but only sparingly (just 16 minutes, as he was being worked slowly back into the line up after missing several games with a knee injury), and was not a factor, scoring just four points on 2-5 shooting. And in that game, Magic stud Dwight Howard was dominant, scoring 24 points on 11-18 shooting and grabbing 21 off the glass, but Magic as a team shot just 37%, and frittered away most of an 8 point lead after three quarters to end up victorious by just two and not cover ATS, allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
And how has Boston done TY on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two)? Other than their two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 4-1 ATS (with average margin of loss of just one point) in their other five road games against such teams, with two ATS wins at Orlando and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, and a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples being their only ATS loss out of the five. On the other hand, the Magic were just 4-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of just 3 points in those games.
So combining and averaging the results of these two teams in these relevant representative games, and counting the two Celtics-Magic games in Orlando TY just twice instead of four times, we get an 8-5 ATS advantage for Boston, and a projected one point win for Magic, good enough to support this 3 unit ATS pick on Boston getting +4> points.
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