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Basketball (NBA)
UNDER atlanta/cleveland
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 5/9/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Atlanta and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. The first game in this series finished below the total with 171 points. The second finished above the number with 190. With the series shifting to Atlanta, I expect tonight's final combined score to more closely resemble Game 1. The Cavaliers saw both road games in the first round finish below the total. Those games finished with an average of just 162 points. Including the split in the first two games, the Cavaliers have also seen the UNDER go 15-7 the last 22 times that they played a second round playoff game. The Hawks tend to play much better defense at home than they do on the road. Here at Atlanta, they've seen the UNDER go 25-19, allowing 92.3 points per game. In their most recent game here, they held the Heat to 78 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 13-7 their last 20 games here. Its also worth noting that the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 20-10 the last 30 times that they faced a team with a winning record. Like the Cavs, the Hawks saw their "Game 3" in the first round finish below the total by double-digits. Look for this one to prove relatively low-scoring once again with the UNDER improving to 15-7 the last 22 times that the Cavs played a road game with an o/u line in the 180 to 184.5 range.
ATLANTA
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 5/9/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. I lost with the Hawks at Cleveland. I'm also well aware of their current injury situation. That said, I'm willing to give them another try here. The Cavs are certainly playing very well right now. They haven't been as strong away from Cleveland all season though and the Hawks have been MUCH better at Atlanta all year, going 34-11 here. Looking at the regular season meetings here and we find that the Hawks beat the Cavs in one game and that they lost by only one in the other. The teams also split last year's regular season's meeting here. However, once again, the Cavs' lone win wouldn't have covered today's number, as they won by only five points. The Hawks have been here before. In last year's playoffs, they lost both road games at Boston. Nobody was giving them much of a chance to even win a game, as they were listed as 8.5 or nine point underdogs in Game 3. I played on the Hawks in that game and they responded with a 102-93 victory. Including that result, they're 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. I expect them to improve on those results here.
DALLAS
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 5/9/2009 5:05:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. Like Cleveland, Denver has been very impressive in these playoffs. The Mavericks are both talented and experienced though. I don't believe that they're just going to roll over. Note that Denver's lone loss in these playoffs came in Game 3, at New Orleans. Nuggets' coach George Karl knows that the Mavs are going to be very tough to beat here. He was quoted as saying: "Game 3 always has a sort of home-court intensity that big-time pros know how to take advantage of, and I think Dallas is made up of big-time pros. They're going to have a home-court energy that's going to be more than New Orleans was. It's going to be hotter..." The Mavs have had some extra time off to prepare and to hopefully give Josh Howard enough time to be able to play and play well. They're 17-1 their last 18 games in this building (lone loss was vs. Denver) and despite dropping this season's meetings, they're still 16-4 the last 20 times that they hosted the Nuggets. The Mavs blew out the Spurs (88-67) here in Game 3 of the first round. Including that result, they're 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect Dirk and co. to be at their best and look for them to improve on those numbers here.
Basketball (NBA)
UNDER atlanta/cleveland
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 5/9/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Atlanta and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. The first game in this series finished below the total with 171 points. The second finished above the number with 190. With the series shifting to Atlanta, I expect tonight's final combined score to more closely resemble Game 1. The Cavaliers saw both road games in the first round finish below the total. Those games finished with an average of just 162 points. Including the split in the first two games, the Cavaliers have also seen the UNDER go 15-7 the last 22 times that they played a second round playoff game. The Hawks tend to play much better defense at home than they do on the road. Here at Atlanta, they've seen the UNDER go 25-19, allowing 92.3 points per game. In their most recent game here, they held the Heat to 78 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 13-7 their last 20 games here. Its also worth noting that the Hawks have seen the UNDER go 20-10 the last 30 times that they faced a team with a winning record. Like the Cavs, the Hawks saw their "Game 3" in the first round finish below the total by double-digits. Look for this one to prove relatively low-scoring once again with the UNDER improving to 15-7 the last 22 times that the Cavs played a road game with an o/u line in the 180 to 184.5 range.
ATLANTA
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 5/9/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. I lost with the Hawks at Cleveland. I'm also well aware of their current injury situation. That said, I'm willing to give them another try here. The Cavs are certainly playing very well right now. They haven't been as strong away from Cleveland all season though and the Hawks have been MUCH better at Atlanta all year, going 34-11 here. Looking at the regular season meetings here and we find that the Hawks beat the Cavs in one game and that they lost by only one in the other. The teams also split last year's regular season's meeting here. However, once again, the Cavs' lone win wouldn't have covered today's number, as they won by only five points. The Hawks have been here before. In last year's playoffs, they lost both road games at Boston. Nobody was giving them much of a chance to even win a game, as they were listed as 8.5 or nine point underdogs in Game 3. I played on the Hawks in that game and they responded with a 102-93 victory. Including that result, they're 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to nine point range. I expect them to improve on those results here.
DALLAS
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 5/9/2009 5:05:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. Like Cleveland, Denver has been very impressive in these playoffs. The Mavericks are both talented and experienced though. I don't believe that they're just going to roll over. Note that Denver's lone loss in these playoffs came in Game 3, at New Orleans. Nuggets' coach George Karl knows that the Mavs are going to be very tough to beat here. He was quoted as saying: "Game 3 always has a sort of home-court intensity that big-time pros know how to take advantage of, and I think Dallas is made up of big-time pros. They're going to have a home-court energy that's going to be more than New Orleans was. It's going to be hotter..." The Mavs have had some extra time off to prepare and to hopefully give Josh Howard enough time to be able to play and play well. They're 17-1 their last 18 games in this building (lone loss was vs. Denver) and despite dropping this season's meetings, they're still 16-4 the last 20 times that they hosted the Nuggets. The Mavs blew out the Spurs (88-67) here in Game 3 of the first round. Including that result, they're 9-4 ATS (10-3 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. I expect Dirk and co. to be at their best and look for them to improve on those numbers here.
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