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Chicago Blackhawks vs. Vancouver Canucks (NHL) - 10:35 PM EDT
Pick: Money Line: 130 Chicago Blackhawks Play Title: Chicago
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Chicago as they face Vancouver slated to start at 10:35 EST. The series is tied 2-2 so this is obviously a huge game for both teams. AiS shows an 85% probability that Vancouver will not score 2 or more goals. Note that Chicago is 45-6 making 35.8 units this season, 302-93 making 269 units since 1996 when they allow 2 goals or less in a game. Vancouver is a terrible 9-26 losing 26 units this season, 66-353 losing a whopping 371.1 units since 1996 when they score 2 goals or less. Take Chicago to take the commanding 3-2 lead in this series.
NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks - Hawks +8.5 -110
Game Date: 5/9/2009
Note: Sometimes there is not much to say about a play except to say that we have an extreme over-adjustment to a betting line. In this case it is due to the whoopings that the Hawks have recieved in the first 2 games of this series. I stayed away from both of those games, at least picking the side, because that is what the Cavs do, and have done to a lot of teams traveling to The City of Rock and Roll. This is not there and the preferred style of music here is Urban Comtemporary, Rap, and the Blues. That is why I like this play. Ok, that is not why I like this play, but I do think that those that have driven this line upward are going to be singing the blues. In effect, with homecourt taken into light, this current line would make Cleveland at 16 to 17 point favorite if it were played back in Ohio. That gives us very good value indeed and Atlanta is not going to bow out that easily. While the Cavs are resting on their laurels, they have have just a 1 Point win here at this Arena and a 5 Point loss at this Arena. There is going to be somewhat of a letdown more than likely today as Cleveland clearly understands that they just need to win their home contests to get this series, and although, they would like to end it early, our minds work in mysterious ways sometimes, not allowing us to get what we want. Perhaps the next game they win. Perhaps they win a close one here today. They will be in for a different kind of Atlanta Squad who should be more focused than they are. Play the Hawks Moneyline? That might be a good idea, but I certainly will grab these unusually high points today.
It seems as if the odds makers haven't figured out that this is not the same Reds team that we have seen over the past few years. This Reds team has a solid group of pitchers to go along with a better than average offense. No, the Reds offense isn't as good as the Cardinals, but they have been getting the job done recently. In fact, their hitting .293 vs righties over their last 10 games as compared a Cardinals team that is hitting .242 over their last 10 vs rights. The Reds also have a solid pitcher going tonight in Aaron Harang. Harang has allowed 2 or less run in 4 of his 6 starts this year, and has been solid at home holding teams to a .225 BAA in his home starts. He will be opposed by Kyle Lohse of the Cardinals. Lohse is coming off of his worst performance of the season, allowing 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work against the Phillies on Monday. Prior to that start Loshe had allowed a total of 7 earned runs over his previous 5 starts. The question is, which Loshse shows up on Saturday? We hope it's the same one that showed up vs the Phillies. Cincinnati has won two in a row, even though they have been dealing with the flu bug as a team. Brandon Phillips will be back tonight to help get the offense going. St. Louis has struggled at Great American Park, going 1-4 over their last 5. Were getting the Red Hot Reds at a very good price with a very decent pitcher on the mound in Harang. Let's see if they can make it 3 wins in a row.
Looking for my friends PittsburghPhil and Ridiculuz.....family may be away tonight....I might be tempted to meet at the Big M at Pegasus if u guys are spontaneous.
SAN DIEGO +108 (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER ARI/WASH 9.5 (+111) (1.75 UNITS)
BOSTON -136 (1.75 UNITS)
UNDER OAK/TORONTO 9 RUNS (-115) (1.75 UNITS)
WHITE SOX -126 (1.5 UNITS)
LA DODGERS -136 (1.5 UNITS)
UNDER CUBS/MILW 1ST 5 INNS 4.5 (EVEN) (1.5 UNITS)
UNDER PITT/METS 9 RUNS (-121) (1.25 UNITS)
UNDER PITT/METS 1ST 5 INNS 4.5 (-105) (1 UNIT)
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -140 (moneyline)
Tampa Bay has a losing record overall and on the road. Boston is 19-11 on the season and 12-3 at home. Yet we are laying just -140 here. Boston has gone 17-5 in their last 22 games. Yet they are laying just -140 here at home. The Rays average 4.4 runs per game on the road and 3.5 per game vs. LHP. Boston averages 6.1 per game vs. LHP and 6.9 per game at home. Yet, we are laying just -140 here. The Red Sox have the bullpen advantage and... well, you get the idea. This is obviously the Scott Kazmir factor but it's an overreaction. Is Kazmir enough to virtually even out a game here with the advantages Boston has? No. And, further reason to like Boston here is that Kazmir is just 3-3 on the season with a 6.00 ERA. Jon Lester is no slouch. He's posted a better ERA on the season than Kazmir. With Lester on the mound, the Red Sox are 20-3 the past three seasons as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is just 4-13 this season to a line of +125 to -125 including 2-9 on the road in that situation. Boston gets the call here.
Tony Salinas
Triple Crown Of The Month
Saturday, May 09, 2009
25*
Mavericks (-4) over Nuggets
5:00 PM -- American Airlines Center
25*
Cardinals {K.Lohse}/Reds {A.Harang} UNDER 8 Runs
7:10 PM -- Great American Ball Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-25 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 70.
26*
Ny Mets {J.Maine} (-170) over Pirates {P.Maholm}
1:10 PM -- Citi Field
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