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Larry Ness Sunday
Las Vegas Insider - MLB
The Braves opened the 2009 season with three-games in Philadelphia vs the Phillies, who were celebrating the club's first World Series title since 1980. Atlanta spoiled Philadelphia's first two home games of 2009 and led 10-3 in the final game of that series, before the Phillies made a dramatic late-inning rally to win, 12-11. The Braves went on to sweep the Nationals and improve to 5-1 but injuries and poor play caught up to them very quickly. Fourteen losses in their next 20 games followed, before the Braves won 8-6 and 4-2 in Florida this past Wednesday and Thursday. The Braves lost 10-6 in the opener of this series but bounced back Saturday with a 6-2 win. That gives them three wins in five games vs Philly in 2009, after losing 14 of 18 vs the World Champs in 2008. To match last year's win total vs the Phillies (with 12 games still remaining), the Braves will need a better effort from today's starter, Kenshin Kawakami. The Japanese import won his major league debut 5-3 vs the Nationals (6 IP / 4 hits / 3 ERs) but over his next three starts, allowed 20 hits and 14 ERs over 15.2 innings (8.04 ERA). He lost a fourth straight start in his last outing, losing 4-3 to the Mets this past Tuesday, allowing just two ERs but he did throw 113 pitches in just five innings. The Phillies haven't hit the ball with as much authority as last year (yet!) but they are still averaging a healthy 5.79 RPG. As has been widely reported, Philadelphia's starters have a major league-worst 6.47 ERA and Brett Myers (2-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts) hasn't done much to lower that ERA when he's been on the mound. Myers went 14-9 with a 4.43 ERA back in 2003 and through 2006 totaled 50 wins (12.5 per season) as a solid starter for the Phillies. He then moved to the bullpen in 2007 (51 appearances, all but three in relief) and went 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA (21 saves). The Phils returned him to the starting rotation in 2008 but a brutal four-game stretch from June 10 through June 27 (he was 0-2 with an 8.57 ERA / team was 0-4) got him sent down to the minors. However, he pitched fairly well when he returned in late July, finishing with a 9-5 record in 16 starts (team was 10-6), while posting a 3.35 ERA. He made three postseason starts for the Phillies, going 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA. Myers has allowed at least three runs but no more than five runs (once) in his six starts this season and he's gone at least six innings in all but one of his starts, although not more than seven innings. While he's hardly been anything special, he has been consistent. The Braves were a horrific 3-16 vs right-handed starters in road day games last year (averaged just 4.1 RPG) and including yesterday's 6-2 win, are just 7-12 vs right-handers in all situations in 2009. With those numbers, Myers should be able to hold the Braves in check enough for the Philly bats to get to Kawakami.
Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies
Weekend Wipeout Winner - NBA
Not much went right for the Celtics in their 117-96 Game 3 loss to the Magic. As Boston head coach Doc Rivers said after watching the game film, "Our defense was awful. I thought we were soft. I thought they were more aggressive. I thought we were the retaliators all game." Boston's offense was inconsistent and the Celtics made the kind of mistakes they usually don't. Their defense was sloppy and the Magic made 59.1 percent from the floor, including 9-of-18 on threes. Howard's (20.6-15.9) been tough to handle all postseason for both the 76ers and Celtics, while Lewis (19.8) and Turkoglu (13.8) have shown no signs that the nagging injuries that bothered them down the stretch of the regular season are a concern now. PG Rafer Alston was suspended for Game 3 but will be available here, as will rookie shooting guard Courtney Lee, who played in Game 3 with a protective mask. Alston was just 3-of-11 in each of the first two games of this series and Anthony Johnson scored 13 points with three rebounds and three assists in his place. Redick has filled in for Lee in the three games he missed (and played fairly well), but Lee did have 11-4-3 in his first game back (Friday night). Van Gundy said he hasn't determined his starting lineup yet. The Celtics got good news when it was learned that there would be no suspension for center Kendrick Perkins (12.5-11.3), who despite his troubles with Howard, has had a very good postseason. Davis (15.9-6.0) has "come into his own" this postseason and of course Eddie House (see Game 2) is capable of "filling it up." However, the Celtics' fate is in the hands of Pierce (21.5-5.8), Allen (20.3) and Rondo (18.0-9.1-11.3). The problem has been though, that all three have are significantly off in their shooting percentages during the postseason.. Pierce is down the least (41.7 percent from 45.7) but Allen (41.2 from 48.0) and Rondo (41.9 from 50.5) are WAY off. So why am I picking the Celtics? Despite playing without KG, the Celtics have risen to every challenge this postseason and shown "the heart of a champion." They won Game 2 at home when down 0-1 vs the Bulls, then, with a win in Game 3 or 4 a must in that series, won Game 3, 107-86. With the series tied 2-all, the Celtics overcame a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit to win Game 5 in OT and then of course, won Game 7, 109-99. In this series, after losing Game 1 at home, Game 2 was a MUST and the Celtics responded with a 112-94 win. The first three games of this series has seen two blowouts, after the Magic won Game 1, 95-50. Even in that game, the Magic opened as much as a 28-point lead before nearly losing all of it. I expect this game to be close most of the way but in the end, I see the Celtics, NOT the Magic, making the key plays down the stretch and I actually expect Boston to win this game by six to 10 points, giving them a double digit ATS win.
Weekend Wipeout Winner Bos Celtics
Larry Ness' Pitching Mismatch
Texas opened the month of May winning SIX of eight games, scoring 43 runs (5.38 per) with 91 hits (most in MLB during that span). However, the Rangers didn't have much success against White Sox pitching on Saturday night (vs Danks and three relievers), totaling only seven hits in the 3-2 loss. The 16-14 Rangers have been an early season surprise (actually lead the AL West), while the White Sox, who won the AL Central in 2008, have opened just 14-15. However, it's early! Vicente Padilla (1-2 with a 5.71 ERA in six starts in 2009) will take the mound for the Rangers, looking for his first win since his season debut April 8. Padilla began his career back in 1999 and in 2002 and '03, won 14 games in back-to-back years for the Phuillies. He came to Texas in 2006 and over the last three years (through 2008), went 35-28 with a 4.89 ERA (Rangers were 45-40 in his 85 starts). As mentioned, he is 1-2 this year (with that high ERA), but the Rangers (who CAN hit!), are 4-2 in those starts. However, Padilla may not get much support today. In fact, I expect him to get very little. Opposing him is veteran Bartolo Colon, who started hismajor league career with the Indians in 1997. He was 18-5 in 1999 and in 2002 (with the Indians and Expos), won a combined 20 games. He went 21-8 for the Angels in 2005, winning the Cy Young award in the AL. However, injuries have limited him since, as with three teams (including with the White Sox this year), he's 13-17 with a 5.33 ERA (over 40 starts) since 2006. However, he's been outstanding in two home starts this year, going six innings (3 hits / 0 ERs) in an 8-0 win over the Twins and seven innings (4 hits / 0 ERs) in a 2-1 win over the Mariners. Then there is Colon's 17-5 (3.44 ERA) lifetime mark vs the Rangers in 25 career starts (teams are 18-7) to talk about. What's more, he's posted a 2.50 ERA while winning 12 straight starts against Texas since August of 2003. Colon has struck out 66 while giving up only 58 hits over 82.2 innings during the streak. I think this qualifies as a pitching edge!
Pitching Mismatch on the Chi White Sox
Las Vegas Insider - MLB
The Braves opened the 2009 season with three-games in Philadelphia vs the Phillies, who were celebrating the club's first World Series title since 1980. Atlanta spoiled Philadelphia's first two home games of 2009 and led 10-3 in the final game of that series, before the Phillies made a dramatic late-inning rally to win, 12-11. The Braves went on to sweep the Nationals and improve to 5-1 but injuries and poor play caught up to them very quickly. Fourteen losses in their next 20 games followed, before the Braves won 8-6 and 4-2 in Florida this past Wednesday and Thursday. The Braves lost 10-6 in the opener of this series but bounced back Saturday with a 6-2 win. That gives them three wins in five games vs Philly in 2009, after losing 14 of 18 vs the World Champs in 2008. To match last year's win total vs the Phillies (with 12 games still remaining), the Braves will need a better effort from today's starter, Kenshin Kawakami. The Japanese import won his major league debut 5-3 vs the Nationals (6 IP / 4 hits / 3 ERs) but over his next three starts, allowed 20 hits and 14 ERs over 15.2 innings (8.04 ERA). He lost a fourth straight start in his last outing, losing 4-3 to the Mets this past Tuesday, allowing just two ERs but he did throw 113 pitches in just five innings. The Phillies haven't hit the ball with as much authority as last year (yet!) but they are still averaging a healthy 5.79 RPG. As has been widely reported, Philadelphia's starters have a major league-worst 6.47 ERA and Brett Myers (2-2 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts) hasn't done much to lower that ERA when he's been on the mound. Myers went 14-9 with a 4.43 ERA back in 2003 and through 2006 totaled 50 wins (12.5 per season) as a solid starter for the Phillies. He then moved to the bullpen in 2007 (51 appearances, all but three in relief) and went 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA (21 saves). The Phils returned him to the starting rotation in 2008 but a brutal four-game stretch from June 10 through June 27 (he was 0-2 with an 8.57 ERA / team was 0-4) got him sent down to the minors. However, he pitched fairly well when he returned in late July, finishing with a 9-5 record in 16 starts (team was 10-6), while posting a 3.35 ERA. He made three postseason starts for the Phillies, going 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA. Myers has allowed at least three runs but no more than five runs (once) in his six starts this season and he's gone at least six innings in all but one of his starts, although not more than seven innings. While he's hardly been anything special, he has been consistent. The Braves were a horrific 3-16 vs right-handed starters in road day games last year (averaged just 4.1 RPG) and including yesterday's 6-2 win, are just 7-12 vs right-handers in all situations in 2009. With those numbers, Myers should be able to hold the Braves in check enough for the Philly bats to get to Kawakami.
Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies
Weekend Wipeout Winner - NBA
Not much went right for the Celtics in their 117-96 Game 3 loss to the Magic. As Boston head coach Doc Rivers said after watching the game film, "Our defense was awful. I thought we were soft. I thought they were more aggressive. I thought we were the retaliators all game." Boston's offense was inconsistent and the Celtics made the kind of mistakes they usually don't. Their defense was sloppy and the Magic made 59.1 percent from the floor, including 9-of-18 on threes. Howard's (20.6-15.9) been tough to handle all postseason for both the 76ers and Celtics, while Lewis (19.8) and Turkoglu (13.8) have shown no signs that the nagging injuries that bothered them down the stretch of the regular season are a concern now. PG Rafer Alston was suspended for Game 3 but will be available here, as will rookie shooting guard Courtney Lee, who played in Game 3 with a protective mask. Alston was just 3-of-11 in each of the first two games of this series and Anthony Johnson scored 13 points with three rebounds and three assists in his place. Redick has filled in for Lee in the three games he missed (and played fairly well), but Lee did have 11-4-3 in his first game back (Friday night). Van Gundy said he hasn't determined his starting lineup yet. The Celtics got good news when it was learned that there would be no suspension for center Kendrick Perkins (12.5-11.3), who despite his troubles with Howard, has had a very good postseason. Davis (15.9-6.0) has "come into his own" this postseason and of course Eddie House (see Game 2) is capable of "filling it up." However, the Celtics' fate is in the hands of Pierce (21.5-5.8), Allen (20.3) and Rondo (18.0-9.1-11.3). The problem has been though, that all three have are significantly off in their shooting percentages during the postseason.. Pierce is down the least (41.7 percent from 45.7) but Allen (41.2 from 48.0) and Rondo (41.9 from 50.5) are WAY off. So why am I picking the Celtics? Despite playing without KG, the Celtics have risen to every challenge this postseason and shown "the heart of a champion." They won Game 2 at home when down 0-1 vs the Bulls, then, with a win in Game 3 or 4 a must in that series, won Game 3, 107-86. With the series tied 2-all, the Celtics overcame a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit to win Game 5 in OT and then of course, won Game 7, 109-99. In this series, after losing Game 1 at home, Game 2 was a MUST and the Celtics responded with a 112-94 win. The first three games of this series has seen two blowouts, after the Magic won Game 1, 95-50. Even in that game, the Magic opened as much as a 28-point lead before nearly losing all of it. I expect this game to be close most of the way but in the end, I see the Celtics, NOT the Magic, making the key plays down the stretch and I actually expect Boston to win this game by six to 10 points, giving them a double digit ATS win.
Weekend Wipeout Winner Bos Celtics
Larry Ness' Pitching Mismatch
Texas opened the month of May winning SIX of eight games, scoring 43 runs (5.38 per) with 91 hits (most in MLB during that span). However, the Rangers didn't have much success against White Sox pitching on Saturday night (vs Danks and three relievers), totaling only seven hits in the 3-2 loss. The 16-14 Rangers have been an early season surprise (actually lead the AL West), while the White Sox, who won the AL Central in 2008, have opened just 14-15. However, it's early! Vicente Padilla (1-2 with a 5.71 ERA in six starts in 2009) will take the mound for the Rangers, looking for his first win since his season debut April 8. Padilla began his career back in 1999 and in 2002 and '03, won 14 games in back-to-back years for the Phuillies. He came to Texas in 2006 and over the last three years (through 2008), went 35-28 with a 4.89 ERA (Rangers were 45-40 in his 85 starts). As mentioned, he is 1-2 this year (with that high ERA), but the Rangers (who CAN hit!), are 4-2 in those starts. However, Padilla may not get much support today. In fact, I expect him to get very little. Opposing him is veteran Bartolo Colon, who started hismajor league career with the Indians in 1997. He was 18-5 in 1999 and in 2002 (with the Indians and Expos), won a combined 20 games. He went 21-8 for the Angels in 2005, winning the Cy Young award in the AL. However, injuries have limited him since, as with three teams (including with the White Sox this year), he's 13-17 with a 5.33 ERA (over 40 starts) since 2006. However, he's been outstanding in two home starts this year, going six innings (3 hits / 0 ERs) in an 8-0 win over the Twins and seven innings (4 hits / 0 ERs) in a 2-1 win over the Mariners. Then there is Colon's 17-5 (3.44 ERA) lifetime mark vs the Rangers in 25 career starts (teams are 18-7) to talk about. What's more, he's posted a 2.50 ERA while winning 12 straight starts against Texas since August of 2003. Colon has struck out 66 while giving up only 58 hits over 82.2 innings during the streak. I think this qualifies as a pitching edge!
Pitching Mismatch on the Chi White Sox
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