5-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

AL

At 1:05pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Florida Marlins. In this afternoon affair, two teams who are doing better than expected will meet as two of their top pitchers take the mound in what should be an exciting match-up. By now, everyone who follows baseball knows about Josh Johnson's exploits this season but what may be less known is the job that Dave Bush has done for his Brewer team. Bush is really coming into his own after a pretty shaky start to the season. In his last two starts (both at home), Bush has given up only five runs in 12 innings and more impressively, he has not surrendered a single walk in either of those starts. As good as Johnson has been (a 3-0 record with a 2.34 ERA) he has been much better at home than on the road, as in three starts away from Landshark Stadium (yes, that is actually the new name of their home ballpark), Johnson is only 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA. That means that he will likely need plenty of run support this afternoon, and that is not something that the Marlins have been doing a very good job of lately. In their last 10 games heading into Wednesday, Florida has only scored a total of 32 runs, or just slightly over three runs per game. They will likely need more than that today, as Milwaukee is 66-33 in first-half home games, and has scored 62 runs in its last nine games. Getaway Day Game of the Month on the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-14-09

Benjamin $ Burns

10* Orlando Magic -6.5
7* Philadelphia Phillies @ 1:05 pm

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-14-09

Larry Ness Thursday

7* Team Mismatch

As I believe most fans are aware, the Pirates last posted a winning season back in 1992. It's the longest active drought of non-winning seasons in MLB. The Pirates opened the 2009 season 11-7 but had lost EIGHT straight and 12 of 13 games before opening a three-game series with the Cards on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Cards came into the series hoping to pad their lead atop the NL Central. However, that hasn't been the case. The Pirates won 7-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 last night, so on Thursday, the 20-14 Cards will be hoping to avoid being swept for the first time this season. St Louis has scored the second-most runs in the NL (175) but its offense has been virtually nonexistent in Pittsburgh, scoring just three runs on a total of only 11 hits in the first two games of this series. That being said, I'm playing 'on' the Cards tonight, as they own too many advantages over the Pirates in this one. The Cards average almost a full run per game higher than the Pirates this year (5.15-to-4.30), which is HUGE. While Pittsburgh's gotten some good efforts from its starters this year, Jeff Karstens hasn't been one of those starters. He was with the Yankees in 2006 and 2007, not getting much "big league time," while going 3-5 with a 5.65 ERA when he did play in "the bigs" (15 appearances, including nine starts). He was in the minors last summer, when he was included in the Xavier Nady trade and in the first week of August, won two straight games for the Pirates. He won in Wrigley 3-0 over the Cubs and then beat the D'backs 2-0 in Pittsburgh. He pitched 15 scoreless innings in those two games (0.00 ERA), while allowing only seven hits. However, his success was short-lived. The Pirates gave Karstens seven more starts in 2008 but he went 0-6 with a 5.70 ERA (team weas 0-7). So far in 2009, he's been given five starts, going 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA (team is 1-4). Doing the math, the Pirates are now 1-11 in Karstens' last 12 starts! Opposing Karstens will be the Cards' Mitchell Boggs. He's no All-Star but he's WAY better than Karstens. He got very little work last year, making eight appearances (six starts), going 3-2 with a terrible 7.41 ERA (team was 4-2 in his starts). His first start of 2009 didn't come until April 25 but Boggs has done a decent job. He's 1-0 with a solid 3.38 ERA, as the Cards have won all three games. Expect the MUCH BETTER team (St Louis), to avoid the road sweep in this one.


Team Mismatch on the Stl Cards


9* Perfect Storm - NBA

I've been on the Celtics in ALL three of their wins in this series and have yet to play 'on' the Magic in any game of this series. That changes here. In Games 4 and 5, I was counting on Boston's experience in "big time pressure situations' to get them through and each time, I've been right. However, I was very lucky to win with the Celtics in Game 5. The Magic really let Boston "off the hook" in that game and while you are hearing 'rumblings' of discontent coming from the Magic camp (Howard wants the ball more and Van Gundy's coaching prowess has been in question since mid-season), I'm not going to let that shake my confidence in this play. With KG and Powe unavailable, the Celtics are being stretched very thin these days. Both Allen and Rondo are way off in their shooting percentages in the postseason. Allen's shooting 40.7 percent (down from 48.0) and Rondo's at 41.8 percent (down from 50.5). House is now the only real 'threat' off the bench and he's inconsistent, at best. Marbury had been a total 'disaster' in the postseason for the Celtics but then suddenly scored 12 points in the 4th quarter in Game 5. He's been reluctant to shoot throughout the entire playoffs (4.0 PPG on 31.1 percent shooting, including Tuesday's outburst) and can't even spell the word defense. The schedule maker is also helping out the Magic in this game, as this series began on May 4 and it's been contested every other day. There has not been a single two-day break between any game and with Boston coming off its draining overtime-laden seven-game series with the Bulls, the Celtics have to be "running on fumes." I don't want to get "ahead of myself," so let's stick to the task at hand. Game 6 will be "all Orlando," with Howard getting the ball and dominating, while Lewis, Turkoglu and the others, all "get theirs" as well. There have been 19 games in the second round of the palyoffs (to-date), with the SU winner going 17-0-2 ATS (both pushes came this past Monday and one could have won on both the Cavs and Mavs in those games). I'm not going to predict an Orlando win but no cover, here.


9* PERFECT STORM play on the Orl Magic.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-14-09

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

ORLANDO (thursday)

Game: Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic Game Time: 5/14/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Orlando Magic Reason: I'm laying the points with ORLANDO. Just because a team is playing a "must win" game, as Orlando is, doesn't mean that they'll cover the spread. In fact, you'll often find me going against the team in a must win spot. However, in this case, I really expect the Magic to respond to the situation by delivering their very best effort. The Magic know they let one get away last game. A questionable shot-clock violation "non-call" against the Celtics didn't help matters. Either way, they were up big and let the Celtics come back in the fourth quarter. That was also a problem in the Philadelphia series. However, the Magic responded to each loss with a victory and won each of the final two games of that series by double-digits. Of course, the defending World Champs are a whole lot better than Philadelphia - even without Garnett. However, my point is that the Magic have shown an ability to bounce back and also that they were at the very best when their earlier playoff games meant the most. The fact that they could have easily won either of the last two games (and their longterm success on the road) has given the Magic hope that they can still win this series. While some teams might hang their heads a bit after the last loss, the Magic know that if they can win tonight's game at home, that they'll have a real legit shot at winning Game 7 at Boston. (Although history would certainly be against them doing so.) They've had a great year and I don't Yes, the Celtics would definitely love to close things out and avoid a Game 7. That's particularly true as they played such a hard-fought series (all the overtimes) vs. Chicago and as they know the Cavaliers are waiting and have barely broken a sweat. That said, this is a very difficult place to win and having always fared well in their recent Game 7s, it's not something that the Celtics fear. My point here is that they might be just slightly less "hungry" than their hosts. Note that the Celtics lost Game 6 at Chicago in the first round and that they also lost Game 6 at Atlanta last year, as nine-point favorites. Even with the tough Game 5 loss, the Magic are still 21-8 the last 29 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, going a respectable 18-11 (62%) at the betting window in those games. The Magic have felt disrespected all year. Everyone recognized the Lakers as the best in the West. The Cavaliers got their respect all year due to their remarkable home record, not to mention the Lebron James factory. The Celtics commanded respect as the defending champs. The Magic felt that they belonged to be mentioned in the same category as those other three elite teams but often they were not. They definitely want to avoid another game which comes down to the wire and I expect them to put it all together with a decisive victory. *Eastern Conf. Playoff GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-14-09

BURNS MLB

Baseball (MLB)

PHILLIES

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game Time: 5/14/2009 1:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. Today's starting pitchers both rank among the better young pitchers in baseball. Billingsley brings the better seasonal stats to the table. However, Hamels was the MVP of the NLCS and World Series last year, meaning he takes a back seat to nobody. His poor overall numbers this season are the result of several freak injuries. Hamels has finally recovered from those injuries though and he looked like his old self last time out. In that game, he limited the Braves to just three hits and two walks through six complete innings, recording seven K's along the way. With the injuries behind him, I expect Hamels to build off that strong outing and follow it up with another big effort this afternoon. Billingsley gave up three runs in seven innings in his last start. That's defined as a "quality start," so there's certainly nothing wrong with a performance like that. That said, a closer look shows that it wasn't one of better outings. That's because he gave up eight hits and four walks, which is more baserunners than he would have liked to have allowed. Note that it was the second straight time that Billingsley allowed four walks, making it 11 free passes issued over his past three starts. Overall, he's got a 1.453 WHIP over his last three starts while Hamels' WHIP over his last three games is a much better 1.098 WHIP. Note that Billingsley had real trouble with the Phillies last season. In fact, in three starts against them, he allowed 13 earned runs in 11 innings. The Phillies won those three games by a combined score of 18-6. Overall, he's 1-3 with a terrible 7.04 ERA and 2.087 WHIP in five starts vs. the Phillies. Conversely, Hamels is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP vs. the Dodgers, most recently outpitching Billingsley last October. I expect Hamels to get the better of Billingsley again this afternoon. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-14-09

ROOT

Chairman-----------------------------Kansas City Royals
Millionaire-----------------------------Orlando Magic
Insiders--------------------------------Houston Rockets