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Re: 5-15-09
Larry Ness Friday
9* Situational Mismatch
These two teams are coming off two very different results this week. The A's entered a two-game home series (Tuesday and Wednesday) with the Royals last in the AL with a .236 batting average, 121 runs scored and with 18 HRs. However, Oakland won 12-3 and 7-2 by banging out 20 hits in a sweep of KC. Meanwhile, the Tigers spent last weekend sweeping the Indians in Cleveland 1-0, 4-0 and 5-3 but then lost all three games to the Twins this week (Tue-Thu), allowing 26 runs in the process. The A's and Tigers open a three-game series tonight in Detroit as rookie Brett Anderson looks for his first major league win. A's manager Bob Geren trotted out this starting rotation at the beginning of the 2009 season. Dallas Braden was the team's Opening Day starter, followed by rookie Trevor Cahill, Dana Eveland, rookie Brett Anderson and Josh Outman. That group owned a combined 63 major league starts! Anderson hasn't had much success. The lefty is 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA in five starts, with the A's losing all five games (he's allowed five ERs in THREE of those five outings). While The Tigers are no longer dominant against left-handed pitching (as they were in 2006 and 2007), this is a lefty they shouldn't have much trouble with (FYI...Detroit is 7-5 vs lefties in 2009, averaging 4.4 RPG). Oakland's offensive outburst vs KC upped the team's batting average to .240 on the year, the first time it's been that high since April 17. However, it's still the lowest team BA in the AL. In Detroit's Edwin Jackson, the A's will face a pitcher who is among the AL leaders in ERA (2.60) and strikeouts (35). Jackson spent his early years in LA (two years with the Angels and one with the Dodgers), going 6-4 with a 5.50 ERA (19 appearances, including 14 starts). He found his way to Tampa Bay in 2006, making 23 appearances (just one start) in 2006, going 0-0 with a 5.45 ERA. He then suffered through a dreadful 2007 season, going 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA in 31 starts (team was 8-23). However, in Tampa's breakout season of 2008 (World Series appearance), Jackson was 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA in 31 starts (team was 17-14). He's pitched well for Detroit in 2009 but hasn't had much luck, going just 2-2 in seven starts (team is 3-4). He has deserved better, as last Saturday night's 4-0 win in Cleveland was his third scoreless outing in his last five starts! The Tigers are averaging 6.0 RPG at home this year and their pitching staff ranks first in the AL with a 3.54 home ERA. That's a pretty lethal combo for a team when facing a rookie pitcher who is winless in his first five major league starts (team is 0-5 and his ERA is 6.11, remember?) and when one's own pitcher (Jackson has that 2.60 ERA this year) is facing the AL's weakest hitting team (A's remain dead-last in the AL with a .240 BA).
Situational Mismatch on the Det Tigers
Las Vegas Insider - MLB
K-Rod signed a free-agent deal with the Mets in the off-season, while John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL (Santana finally making his first start of 2009, yesterday). The Angels then tragically lost promising young pitcher Nick Adenhart to a fatal car crash in the season's first week plus former MVP Vlad Guerrero's been on the DL since April 16. It should come as no surprise then, that the Angels opened the 2009 season 6-11. LA owned MLB's best record last year (100 wins), going 50-31 both at home and on the road. While the Angels are not in first place yet, they have won NINE of 11, getting a HUGE boost from their pitching staff. Opponents have averaged just 3.5 RPG vs the Angels, during their recent 9-2 surge. Why haven't the Angels been able to climb back into first in the AL West? The answer is the team's opponent tonight, the Texas Rangers. The 18-15 Angels trail the 20-14 Rangers, who are looking for a fifth straight victory as they open a three-game series against the Angels tonight in Arlington. We know the Rangers can hit, as they led the majors with a .283 average last year, while averaging 5.56 RPG. Texas is batting .279 so far in 2009 and is plating 5.62 RPG. However, improved pitching has been a major difference in 2009. The Rangers posted a ML-worst 5.36 ERA in 2008 but in 2009, enters this game with a 4.61 team ERA (ranks 17th). Kevin Millwood (3-3 with a 2.92 ERA) starts tonight and he is among the AL leaders in innings pitched (52.1), having gone at least seven in all seven of his 2009 starts. Many remember Millwood winning 18 games for the Braves in 1999 and 2002 but since leaving Atlanta as a free agent in 2003, Millwood has been a mediocre pitcher. He's played for Philadelphia, Cleveland and Texas these last six seasons, entering 2009 at 67-65 (4.36 ERA), while his teams have gone 92-92 in his 184 starts (I said mediocre, didn't I?). While the Rangers are 11-6 at home and averaging 6.53 RPG in Arlington, I'm NOT going against Joe Saunders and the Angels in this one (taking a small price). As most regulars know, Saunders is a real favorite of mine. Here's a guy who was shuttled in and out of LA's rotation in 2006 and 2007, while constantly being called up from the minors and then sent down. However, he thrived in that role, going 15-8 (4.55 ERA) over those two seasons, with the Angels going 21-10 in his 31 starts. With injuries to Colon and Lackey at the beginning of last year, Saunders was given a regular spot in LA's rotation and DELIVERED! He went 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts, as the Angels went 23-8 (plus-$1,268) in those games, the 6th-best moneyline mark of any pitcher in MLB. Throw in his team's win in his Game 3 start of the ALDS at Fenway and the Angels went 12-4 in Saunders' home starts, as well as 12-4 in his road starts in 2009. John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL, so Saunders was actually LA's Opening Day starter in 2009, throwing 6.2 scoreless innings (allowed just three hits) in a 3-0 win over the A's. He enters this game, after out-dueling KC's Zach Greinke in his last outing, a 1-0 Angels win over the Royals last Saturday. Saunders is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA in seven 2009 starts (team is 5-2), as opponents are hitting just .237 on the year against him. Saunders was terrible in hs first two career starts at Rangers Ballpark but he threw a complete game in his last start in Arlington, a 3-2 loss last July. Millwood's pitched well so far in 2009 but LA's had excellent success against right-handers these last two seasons, going a combined 141-93 (.603) in 2007 and 2008, while opening this year 13-10 vs righties. Also note that the Angels thrived last season in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark, winning SEVEN of nine games.
Las Vegas Insider on the LA Angels
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