5-16-09 Preakness only

**Mr. IWS** · 05-16-2009, 07:55 AM

Re: 5-15-09 Preakness only

D O C......
1st Rachel Alexandra
2nd Papa Clem
3rd Pioneer of the nile

$20.00 win and place on the #7 Papa Clem
$1 tri box 3-5-7-9-13

**Mr. IWS** · 05-16-2009, 09:18 AM

Re: 5-15-09 Preakness only

NOEL MICHAELS / OTB LEARNING LABS

SATURDAY, MAY 16, 2009

PREAKNESS STAKES, PIMLICO RACE 12

#11 Take the Points 30-1
#1 Big Drama 10-1
#13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
#7 Papa Clem 12-1

This Preakness is shaping up to be one of the most interesting and evenly-matched in recent memory, and much value will be there to be had on the tote board thanks to a field full of highly-questionable Kentucky Derby graduates (including the winner), and a favorite who is a filly that has never faced colts who has drawn the poor far outside 13 post

Therefore, with so many question marks clouding this year's Preakness picture, why not try to employ what would have been the winning strategy to follow in the Kentucky Derby? Bet the longshot.

In this case, the longshot I'm referring to is #11 Take the Points (30-1), who has several angles going for him in his favor. First, he's a fresh new shooter who did not go through the grind of the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. That angle worked nicely on a pair of recent occasions when Bernardini won in 2006 and when Red Bullet won in 2000. You'll be getting Todd Pletcher at a price, and a former Maryland-based jockey, Edgar Prado, who knows this track better than any other jockey in the field. Prado is 2-for-2 already aboard Take the Points, and the horse should benefit strongly from this return to the dirt with added blinkers. Don't worry about post 11, recent Preakness winners breaking from posts 8 and outward have included Bernardini (post 8) in 2006, Afleet Alex (post 12) in 2005, Funny Cide (post 9) in 2003, War Emblem (post 8) in 2002, Point Given (post 11) in 2001, and Silver Charm (post 10) in 1998.

The theme of my Preakness picks this year is "new shooters", because I judged this year's Kentucky Derby to be a sub-par race that was missing all three of this year's best 3-year-olds including I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and my second pick in the Preakness, Big Drama

Big Drama had been my pick to win the Preakness until he draw the Preakness "death rail." Only one horse, Tabasco Cat in 1994, has come from the rail post to win the Preakness in the last 48 years since 1960 (Belly Ache). In spite of the dreadful rail handicap, Big Drama is good enough to still hit the exacta vs. this year's Preakness field. He's a game little horse who will be extremely difficult to get past. He's improved each and every time out, he looked terrific in his 3-year-old debut last time out, and flat out has more talent than the rest of these.

Another horse who was disadvantaged by the post draw was Rachel Alexandra, who drew post 13. Outside posts indeed have been good recently in the Preakness, but it's been at least 33 years since a horse has won a 1 3/16-mile race at Pimlico from outside post 12. Considering she'll be a short-priced favorite, that's just too much history to go again the cause of picking Rachel Alexandra on top. That being said, this year's current group of 3-year-old males represented in the Preakness leaves much to be desired, and this filly has shown more talent and ability than pretty much all of them. Can this filly win the Preakness? Absolutely. She's good enough and fast enough. However, I'll put her third because she'll have a lot to overcome, at a short price, in her first start against males from the far outside at the furthest distance she's ever gone.

Finally, for a fourth horse, I'm picking the horse exiting the Derby with the most upside, Papa Clem. Papa Clem doesn't seem to be at his best on wet tracks, which certainly could have hurt him last time in the Derby. Nevertheless, he still finished fourth, beaten only a nose and a head for second. He'll improve if he can get a fast track, and his winning 1 1/8-mile effort in the Arkansas Derby represented the kind of improvement you'd like to see from a 3-year-old contender this time of year.

NOEL MICHAELS / OTB LEARNING LABS
Saturday, May 16, 2009
PIMLICO FULL CARD

Horses are in order of preference by program number
Play the top horse to win, and box all horses in exactas and trifectas
In other exotics play the top horse with as many others as your budget allows.
Race 1
5 Scotchontherocks 5-2
8 Malibu Joe 2-1
2 Storms Past 5-1

Race 2: DuPont Distaff
1 Sea Chanter 1-1
5 Striking Tomisue 5-2
1a Skylighter 1-1

Race 3
10 Mythical Hero 6-1
9 Old Timer 12-1
5 Stonestreet Star 9-5

Race 4 William D. Schafer Stakes
3 Ea 3-1
6 Ready Set 5-2
4 Crimson Classic 10-1

Race 5 Top exotic (ex & tri box)
7 Habitual 5-2
10 Cold Orient 6-1
2 Schleprock 4-1

Race 6 Deputed Testimony Handicap
11 Sumacha`hot 2-1
4 Thunder Charm 10-1
2 Take Down Two 10-1

Race 7 Galorette Handicap
8 Dynaforce 4-5
2 All is Vanity 9-2
7 Social Queen 15-1
Race 8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes
3 Not for Silver 8-1 Best longshot
7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1
6 Despite the Odds 9-2
Race 9 Woodlawn Stakes
Best exacta box
8 Affirmatif 3-5
1 Hero`s Image 12-1
4 Beacon Hill Road 6-1

Race 10 Maryland Sprint Handicap
8 Ravalo 3-1 Best Bet
2 Grand Traverse 5-1
5 Ah Day 5-2

Race 11 The Dixie
4 Kiss the Kid 5-1
3 Parading 9-2
10 Just as Well 10-1
Race 12 The Preakness Stakes
11 Take the Points 30-1
1 Big Drama 10-1
13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
7 Papa Clem 12-1

Race 13
5 Our Second Slew 5-2
6 Pilanesberg 2-1
4 Louiegoboldly 12-1

**Mr. IWS** · 05-16-2009, 11:16 AM

Re: 5-15-09 Preakness only

Wunderdog

PIMLICO Race #4 (THE WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER) at 11:45 AM Eastern

Top pick: #2 (REAL MERCHANT) - This runner is coming off his best start since coming here from Chile last year. He just missed last out going a mile at Belmont in a solid field. Looks set for his best in a competitive small field.

2nd pick: #6 (Ready Set) - Nicely set-up by his trainer (Mike Matz). Major stakes winner last year at three finished a strong second in his seasonal debut at Delaware on May 6 to a tough older runner. Win candidate.

3rd pick: #1 (Cave's Valley) - The main speed and he's stationed on the rail. Consistent and Maryland-based runner has a bit of a home field advantage. Must be caught.

4th pick: #3 (Ea) - Gelded son of "Dynaformer" was bred to be a good runner and just now seems to be reaching his potential. Comes into this off his best ever and is an exotics threat.

5-16-09 Preakness only

5-16-09 Preakness only

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