5-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must have Harden as listed pitcher or this play is void!)

10 Dime ---- CELTICS

CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (MUST LIST RICH HARDEN) --- I honestly don't know where to begin. There are so many reasons I like this game that I'm asking you to step up your wager this afternoon.

Being a former pitcher myself, I usually tend to look at the pitching matchup... and I can't help but think this Rich Harden vs. Brian "My WHIP is over 2" Moehler is way too one-sided. I realize Rich Harden isn't off to the greatest start, but watching him pitch in his last two outings gives me more than enough confidence to back him against the run line at home today. His ERA might be sitting above 4 right now, but the last time he finished a season with an ERA anywhere close to where it's at now was back in 2006 with Oakland (4.24, still respectable).

In his last two starts, Harden has gone at least six innings, allowing a total of 12 hits and 5 ER in 13 innings of work (both wins). In fact, the Cubs have won his last five starts by an average of four runs per game, even if he didn't get credit for the win. His last meeting with the Astros was just a few short weeks ago when he allowed three earned in seven innings as the Cubs won 6-3 down in Houston. Harden has 11 career starts at Wrigley Field (58 innings), posting a 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of just .192. Brilliant.

Now, for Brian Moehler... could we get any luckier. I can tell you that I haven't liked this guy from the moment I watched him pitch in his first game and the same holds true today. Okay, so I realize his season ERA is a bit inflated because of his first two starts... that still doesn't take away the fact that he allowed 7 and 5 ERs in less than 3 innings of work during his first two starts of the season. Oh yeah, and I forgot to mention one of those incredibly bad outings was against Chicago in April. Yes, he's pitched better recently, but those games were against Washington and San Diego... hardly the same as what Chicago's offense can bring to the table, not to mention the fact the Astros are 0-5 in Moehler's last five road starts overall and as a dog.

After scraping out a 5-4 win yesterday, you can bet the Cubs would love nothing more than to save their bullpen by giving Harden a big lead to work with early on. The Cubs love playing at home, winning nearly two of every three they play at Wrigley, and today should be no different. Like I mentioned, the Cubs are 5-0 in Harden's last five starts, 13-3 in Harden's last 16 starts as the favorite, 5-0 in their last five vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-1 in their last six at home vs. a righty.

I simply have not been overly impressed by the Astros bats lately (19 UNDERS and just 13 OVERS) and, again, I have absolutely no confidence on Brian Moehler whatsoever. I could easily see this thing being something like 8-3 or 9-4 in favor of Chicago. Absolutely love this play on the Cubs -1 1/2 today and it's easily my top MLB play of the last week.


BOSTON CELTICS --- As easy as it would be for me to jump all over the LA Lakers like the rest of the country, I'm going to stay away from that game because I could easily see one of those cheap backdoor covers and I don't want any part of it. Instead, I'll take my chances with the Boston Celtics to win by a mere 3 or 4 points in Game 7 at home today.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Boston is going to come out and absolutely dominate Orlando today because I don't think they will. I think this game could easily come down to a free throw shooting contest in the final minutes until Boston finally pulls away. I realize the size advantage Orlando has inside, but I can't help but recognize the advantage Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo have over Orlando's guards and small forwards. These three helped the Celtics to get where they got last year, and when crunch time comes calling who would you rather have running the show: those three or Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu? No disrespect meant for the Orlando trio, but come on, be serious.

I'll take the veteran trio any day of the week and I believe you would as well. The Celtics have been pushed to the brink of elimination before and it's becoming somewhat second nature to them. Las year vs. Atlanta and this year vs. Chicago. Just when it looked like they were down and out, they put it all together for a Game 7 domination and I see nothing different today. Boston is kicking themselves for not finishing off the Magic in Game 6 (a game they led most of the way), but they won't let another one slip away at home today. Celts win by 7-10 points today and move on to face the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

C-Stars Sports

1000 Units LA Lakers minus the points over Houston
1000 Units Top Play Orlando/Boston under the total
1000 units Top Play Atlanta Braves over Arizona
50 units LA Lakers/Houston over the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Destroythebooksports

Mlb
10*lad/marlins Over 10
7*brewers/cards Over 9
5*rockies-110
5*oakland+125
5*orioles-111

Nba
5*lakers-12
5*celtics-2

Nhl
7*det/chi. Over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Bob Valentino Sunday's 40 Dime NBA Playoffs winner ... 40 DIME -- L.A. LAKERS (minus the points vs. Houston Rockets)

NOTE: As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more on a favorite than you have to or take back less than you can on an underdog!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 betweeen Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Jeff Benton
Sunday's NBA winner ... 30 DIME: LAKERS (minus the points vs. Rockets)


Lakers

Let me start with this statement: There is absolutely no reason – not one – that the Lakers should be playing this game today. They should be completely embarrassed that they’ve let the Rockets – with no Yao Ming and no Tracy McGrady – push this series to a Game 7. And there is no denying the fact that 100 percent of the pressure today is on Kobe Bryant and his teammates, while Houston is in a total nothing-to-lose situation.

All this said – and giving all the credit in the world to the Rockets, who have shown a lot of heart over the past week – L.A. is not losing this game today. Not only are the Lakers not losing, they’re going to crush the Rockets in much the same way they did in that 40-point Game 5 rout in Hollywood.

How can I be so confident? For one thing, the Lakers aren’t just inconsistent anymore; they’re officially now consistently inconsistent. Let me explain: Four times in these playoffs, Los Angeles has taken the court unprepared, unmotivated, arrogant and/or a combination of all three. But in the very next game after each of those four losses, Phil Jackson’s squad got its act together and did so in a big way.

Remember when the Lakers lost Game 3 at Utah in the opening round by an 88-86 score? Remember what happened in Game 4? L.A. rolled to a 108-94 win as a five-point road favorite. Then there was the stunning eight-point home loss to Houston in the opener of this series. Game 2 result: Lakers 111, Rockets 98, with L.A. cashing as a 12-point chalk. Finally, Los Angeles followed up that Game 4 clunker in Houston (99-88 setback as a 7½-point road favorite) with the 40-point blowout win in Game 5 back at home.

See where I’m going when I say “consistently inconsistent”? That’s a pretty damn strong pattern right there, and it’s a pattern that will continue today.

Now consider this: Take away the Game 1 upset by Houston in Los Angeles – and don’t forget, Kobe Bryant was sick that night and the Lakers were coming off a lengthy layoff after eliminating Utah – the Lakers have hosted the Rockets four other times this season. They won those five games by margins of 29, 12, 13 and 40 points, holding Houston to an average of just 84,8 ppg. Going back to last year and including the Game 1 loss in this series, L.A. is 5-1 SU and ATS against Houston when serving as the host in Southern California.

Finally, if you believe that the Lakers are going to win this game outright, this final stat should convince you that they’re going to cash as well: In the last 12 meetings between these squads, the team that won the game covered the spread … all 12 times! What’s more, since Houston’s eight-point win in Game 1, the last five games in this series have been double-digit blowouts.

Don’t be scared off by this big number, folks. Even though the Lakers should’ve finished this series

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Scott Rickenbach

1* (regular play) Houston Rockets (+) @ LA Lakers

At this point – Game Seven of a series – we’ve already “beaten to death” all the match-up issues, strategy issues, etc. Game Seven is truly a different “animal”. It’s one that needs addressed in a different fashion and where a play is heavily based on “situational value”. In this case, that value lies squarely with the Rockets! Yes, Houston lost by 40 in the last game here but that was truly an aberration. It was a game where everything that could wrong for the Rockets did go wrong while everything that could go right for the Lakers did go right. Now, no matter what the Lakers say, even when they apply themselves, like they purported to before Game Six on Thursday, they have proven that they can still be beaten. The Rockets have all the confidence in the world heading to Los Angeles for this game. Not only has Houston defeated the Lakers three times in this series, one of those wins did come in Los Angeles. That said, we knew we were going to get extreme value here with the Lakers getting a lot of public attention in “bounce back” mode. You see, there is a HUGE difference in terms of a Game Seven “bounce back” mode. The Lakers have not been in a bounce back situation in this series where, if they would have lost, they would be going home for the summer! That is now staring them squarely in the face! As for the Rockets, they weren’t even supposed to be here! They were not even supposed to take the Lakers to a seventh game! What does that mean for them? They come out loose and relaxed as they know nothing is expected of them in this match-up. As for the Lakers, they might still be confident but there is still a world of pressure on their shoulders in this match-up. They can say what they want but the Lakers know that – with any slippage in this game (a poor shooting effort from them, a hot shooting effort from the Rockets) they are suddenly staring elimination in the face. This is a massive amount of pressure to deal with. So, the Lakers may indeed “hang on” and win this game but for them to be asked to cover this massive point spread in a very tight, tense situation is absolutely asking too much! Grab the value here with the loose and truly “dangerous dog” Rockets! Play Houston plus the points as a regular selection

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Jim Kruuger

Orlando at Boston
Play: Boston -2.5

It is always difficult for an away team to win a Game 7 in the NBA Playoffs when both teams are tied 3 to 3. Over the last six years, home teams in Game 7’s have won 75% of the time while covering the spread 65% of the time. Boston has a very good pedigree having won the NBA Title last year. This is Orlando’s first time with their “feet to the fire” and I trust the hometown Boston Celtics more with being able to handle the pressure. Boston has been winning games this series with 41% three-point shooting Ray Allen having a terrible series. I look for him and Pierce to step up and carry Boston to the win and cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Mike Lineback

Magic/Celtics Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

VR Sunday


2 - Milwaukee +100
2 - Sf Giants -105
2 - Minnesota +160
2 - Cleveland/Tb under 10 -115
2 - Texas -105
3 - Orlando +3
5 - Houston/LA under 194

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Al DeMarco

Sunday's Play
5 Dime - Boston Celtics on the Money Line



Television, and the NBA's desire to maximize its viewing audience, has ultimately provided Boston with its biggest break -- literally and figuratively, perhaps -- of the postseason. Entering the Orlando series, the short-handed Celtics were mentally, emotionally and physically drained after their grueling seven-game duel to near-death with Chicago in the first round. Thus, it was no surprise they were beaten at home in Game One by the Magic and have been plagued by bouts of inconsistency throughout the series, including a collapse in the final seven minutes of Game Six on Thursday.



Go back to Game Four of the Chicago series. Since then, Boston has played 10 games on an every other day basis. That's 10 games in 20 days for an aging team missing its best player in Garnett and key reserve in Powe. Plus, factor in all the overtimes endured in the series with the Bulls, and that's even more floor time for the Celtics in that 20-day stretch. But now, thanks to television, they got the benefit of an extra day's rest and the nighttime slot since Kobe and the Lakers were deemed the more attractive afternoon match-up. That will be key for the tired legs of Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, not to mention the banged-up shoulder of Kendrick Perkins.



Rondo, Allen and Eddie House coming off the bench hold an overwhelming edge in talent versus their Orlando counterparts. Pierce has more than held his own against Rashard Lewis in this series. And Perkins, despite a bothersome shoulder injury, has played aggressive defense against Dwight Howard and been a key factor as Boston has more than held its own on the boards in the series. In fact, the Celtics outrebounded Orlando in Games Five and Six.



Homecourt advantage and experience come into play tonight. The Celtics are 14-3 lifetime when hosting a Game Seven, and that includes three wins in the past year as they beat the Bulls in the first round earlier this month and the Hawks and Cavaliers in last season's playoffs. On the other hand, the Magic had an opportunity to wrestle control of this series in their last visit to Boston, but blew a late lead in Game Five and allowed Boston to steal a win.



Do I think the Celtics can cover as a 3-point favorite today? Yes, in fact I do. But, it makes no sense to play them versus the spread when I can instead take them on the moneyline instead at around -145 or -150. Think of it this way: -145 or -150 is about my personal maximum for making a baseball wager; this is no different. You might recall I used that philosophy for backing the Yankees on the road with C.C. Sabathia earlier this week instead of opting for New York as a Run Line release and it paid off with a win; same principle here. And with the bankroll I've accumulated thanks to the 18-5 roll, I can afford it.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

EZ Winners: 1-Astros,White Sox,Twins and Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida Marlins May 17 2009 1:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I'm playing the Over in the LA Dodgers/Florida game on Sunday. Both starting pitchers here are in real trouble. Clayton Kershaw of Los Angeles has been awful away from pitching-friendly Dodger Stadium. His CAREER road ERA is a horrible 6.55, and his WHIP is a ridiculous 1.77. And, things are actually getting worse! Over his last three road starts he’s allowed 19 earned runs and 30 base runners in just 14 innings of work. Florida will likely hit him very hard in good scoring weather. John Koronka is a desperation starter for the Marlins. In his only start this year he allowed five earned runs and 10 baserunners in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Today he has to face the offense with the number one on-base percentage in baseball in good scoring conditions! I see both offenses doing damage. If each gets to five runs we win right there. Either could explode and do most of the damage themselves given the caliber of bats today and the very vulnerable starting pitchers. The Over in the LA Dodgers/Florida game is my NL Total of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

Seabass 100* Steam -LAD/FL over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-17-09

BeatYourBookie.com

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Sunday


NBA Basketball


100* Play Orlando (+2.5) over Boston (NBA)

Orlando is 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season
Orlando is 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or less
Orlando is 29-18 ATS in all road games this season



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Other Hoops & Hockey Plays


50* Play Houston (+12.5) over Los Angeles (NBA)

50* Play Detroit (-200) over Chicago (NHL)