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9* over magic
9* magic
5* redwings
9* over magic
9* magic
5* redwings
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Re: 5-17-09
Larry's 10* Gm 7 Showdown (4-0 this series)
25-year vet Larry Ness has come on strong this NBA postseason, going 10-4 (71.4%) with his NBA playoff releases in May. He's DOMINATED the Boston/Orlando series, going a PERFECT 4-0 through the first six games. It's Game 7 this Sunday night on TNT, so who better to trust for the ATS winner than Larry? Your move!
Boston Celtics -2.5 -
Re: 5-17-09
Larry Ness' Sunday Night Game of the Month-MLB (NYM/SF-ESPN)
My 15* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the SF Giants at 8:05 ET. The Mets won seven straight games from May 4-10 but 1B Carlos Delgado, an important cog in the middle of their lineup, hasn't played since may 10 due to an impingement of his right hip (you tell me what that means?). Delgado was placed on the 15-day DL yesterday, retroactive to Monday, but reports are that he may remain there well longer than 15 days. So what's happened to the Mets in his absence? They've won four of six games this week (averaging 6.3 RPG), including the first three of a four-game series with the Giants in San Francisco. The Mets have 'rocked' San Fran's pitching staff, scoring 24 runs, while pounding out 42 hits. The Giants had been 12-5 at AT&T Park coming ino this series but to add insult to injury, the Mets have stolen 13 bases the last three games, while 'tearing the cover off the ball.' So why am I taking the Giants? I'll admit it's partly "the due theory" but it's way more than that. Sweeping a four-game series at an opponents park is no easy feat. Note that the Mets, who joined the NL in 1962, are playing their 19th series of at least four games in the Bay Area and have NEVER swept the Giants before! OK, so I have history on my side. Also, New York's Mike Pelfrey is not exactly Johan Santana, either. He's 4-0 in six starts this year (team is 5-1) but his ERA is 4.89 plus he's allowed 40 hits in 35 innings with 15 walks vs a meager nine strikeouts. The Giants counter with Matt Cain. This hard luck pitcher (I won't recap here) is starting to see things "go his way" in 2009. He didn't pitch all that well in his last outing this past Tuesday (7 IP / 9 hits / 4 ERs) but the Giants got three in the ninth inning for a 9-7 win. That's something that's NEVER happened to this guy, especially in 2007, when he allowed only 173 hits in 200 innings with a 3.64 ERA but went just 7-16, as the Giants were 9-23 in his 32 starts (minus-$1,803 moneyline mark was a ML-worst!). Cain is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in seven start this year (team is 4-3) and in FIVE of his seven starts, he's allowed two ERs or less. So yes, I'm counting a little on the "due theory" but I'm also relying on history (no four-game sweeps by the Mets in San Francisco since 1962 in 18 previous tries), the fact that the Giants should be able to get to Pelfrey plus I believe Cain can and will 'quiet' those Met bats. Sunday Night Game of the Month 15* SF Giants.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (10-5 in '09 with MLB Insiders)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 2:05 ET. K-Rod signed a free-agent deal with the Mets in the off-season, while John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL. The Angels then tragically lost promising young pitcher Nick Adenhart to a fatal car crash in the season's first week plus former MVP Vlad Guerrero's been on the DL since April 16. It should come as no surprise then, that the Angels opened the 2009 season 6-11. LA owned MLB's best record last year (100 wins), going 50-31 both at home and on the road. However, entering this three-game weekend series with the Rangers in Arlington, the Angels had won NINE of 11 while getting a HUGE boost from their pitching staff, which had allowed just 3.5 RPG during their recent 9-2 surge. The Rangers were 20-14 and in first place beginning the weekend, led by some typically good hitting plus some improved pitching. The Rangers posted a ML-worst 5.36 ERA in 2008 but entered Friday's game with a 4.61 team ERA, which ranked 17th. Texas won 10-8 on Friday and 5-3 on Saturday, extending its winning streak to six straight and its AL West lead over the Angels to 2 1/2 games. Texas had 12 HRs (team's 62 HRs lead MLB) in the first five games of its six-game streak but won on Saturday without a HR, for just the fifth time this season. Sunday's final game of the series features Jered Weaver vs Scott Feldman. Weaver comes in 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA on the season. He's got a 1.86 ERA over his last four starts and is looking more like the pitcher we saw in his rookie year of 2006, when in 19 starts he went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA, allowing just 94 hits in 123 innings with 105 strikeouts. Scott Feldman was strictly a relief pitcher from 2005-07, as all 73 of his appearances were out of the bullpen (1-5 record with a 4.42 ERA). However 25 of his 28 appearances were starts last year but the results were not good. He was 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA on the year, with Texas going 8-17 in his starts. He began 2009 in the bullpen but his last four outings have all been starts. While his overall ERA for 2009 is 4.85, the Rangers are 3-1 in his four starts (he's 2-0), as Feldman has posted a 2.74 ERA. However, I'm sure not convinced all his problems are behind him. He made four starts vs the Angels last year, going 1-2 (team was 1-3) and posting a 7.89 ERA. Meanwhile, Weaver has always done well vs this talented Texas lineup, posting a career 2.54 ERA in nine starts. Weaver's allowed just 35 hits in 47.2 innings this year (has a 35-10 ratio of Ks to BBs) and as already mentioned, owns a 1.86 ERA his last four starts this year. The Angels won SEVEN of nine in Rangers Ballpark last year and I expect them to avoid the sweep here. Las Vegas Insider 15* LA Angels.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (6-0 since April 21)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Brewers have surged to the top of the NL Central after a 4-9 start by going 18-5 since. Yesterday's 1-0 win at Busch was the team's fourth straight win and its 10th in its last 12. Milwaukee enters Sunday 22-14 with the Cards falling back to 21-15 and the Cubs in between the two clubs at 21-14. The Cards, the early leaders in the NL Central, have now lost five of seven. However, I believe we are getting a real bargain on St Louis (price wise) in this game. Converted reliever Todd Wellemeyer gets the call for St Louis and he's been either very good or very bad in 2009. He's 3-3 with a 5.80 ERA in seven starts this season. In his three losses this season he's surrendered 12 runs in the first two innings but in his three wins, he's gone seven full innings each time, allowing just five ERs (2.14 ERA). Don't forget this guy came to St Louis during the 2007 season from KC and finished that year by making 11 stats for the Cards with the team going 9-2 and plus-$995 vs the moneyline, which ranked 5th-best among starters for the entire season! He was then 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA as a full-time starter last season. Lefty Manny Parra goes for the Brewers and don't be fooled by him winning his last two starts (3.75 ERA). I've seen some claim that a lack of run support was the cause of his 0-4 start in his first five outings this year (team was 0-5). Yes it's true that the Brewers only gave him 10 runs in those five games but how about his 5.33 ERA during that span? You think that had anything to do with his lack of success? Let me also note that Parra has been fairly inept (I'm being nice here!) since last year's All Star break. He returned from the break to win his first start (7-4 over the Giants) but then went 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA in his next five (team was 1-4). He won August 20th, 5-2 at home vs the Astros but then finished 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA in his last four starts (team was 0-4), before the Brewers banished him to the bullpen. So let me recap. Before winning his last two starts this year, Parra (since last year's All Star break), had gone 2-10 with the Brewers going 3-13 in his previous 16 starts! Throw in the fact that the Cards were 16-10 vs lefties at home last year (averaging 4.7 RPG) and that they are 5-2 at home vs lefties to open 2009 (averaging 4.9 RPG) and you can see why I feel it's a bargain to get the Cards at home vs Parra at this price. Oddsmaker's Error 15* StL Cards.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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