5-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

charlie
mlb. arizona @ florida under 8' runs (500*).
mlb. angles @ seattle under 8' runs (30*)
mlb. washington-110 (20*)
mlb. st.louis-130 (20*)
mlb. mets+135 (10*)
mlb. oakland+135 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Craig Trapp

MLB | May 18
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees -1½+115

Another MLB Top Play won for Handicapper Craig Trapp yesterday with his Run Line Game of week (TOR -110) winning easy yesterday. Craig's free play lost with the Mets not being able to push any runs across and losing a close one. Today we will sweep the board no problem.


Records


Minnesota Twins 18-20, 4-11 away (Perkins 1-2, 4.27 ERA)


New York Yankees 20-17, 9-7 home (Pettitte 3-1, 4.00 ERA)



Betting Trends


-Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.


-Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games on grass.


-Yankees are 5-1 in Pettittes last 6 starts as a favorite.


-Yankees are 6-2 in Pettittes last 8 starts.



Love taking teams that win in heroic fashion and the Yankees have done it three games in a row. The first three games of the series the Yankees have come back in each to win in walk off fashion. Yankees have won seven straight home games over Minnesota and 22 of 25 meetings in New York. Today the Twins will be down emotionally and the Yankees will dominate with Pettitte who is due for a shut out. The Yankees offense has been good since AROD has came back and today they will knock around Perkins starting for Minnesota. EASY BIG WIN on Monday!! SCORE NYY 6 - MIN 1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

RatedPicks 5/18 MLB (small *BP*) The Bulldog



Blue Jays RUN LINE -1.5 +130

The Blue Jays love playing in the sun. They have a 13-2 record during the day, they should also have a sell out crowd in the stands pumping them up, as first place Toronto celebrates a national holiday today. A much improved Blue Jays team throws Scott Richmand on the mound who faces off against Clayton Richard. The last time Richard faced the Blue Jays he lasted 4 innings as the Blue Jays pounded him for 5 runs injust 4 innings. Richard has also given up a 5.40 ERA and clubs hit a staggering .314 BAA against him. Couple this with the fact that he holds a lifetime record of 2-6, and the last time he faced the Blue Jays he was taken out in the 3rd inning while he got hammered for 4 runs, and had the bases loaded 2 of those 3 innings.



LA Angels -102

Lackey is the small underdog here, on the road vs the Mariners. The Mariners counter with Washburn, who has been getting pounded as of late against the Angels ball club. Going 1-4, and giving up 20 runs in the process. Lets take the small dog on the road in this one, as Lackey has yet to get a start since coming back. Look for Lackey to come in pumped after the ejection, and play this game a little stronger then normal. Reccommend taking on an extra 20% of your normal bet, as this is considered a smaller *BP*



Arizona D'Backs -130

Haren is a great pitcher vs Nolasco who is on a horrible tear. Haren for the D'Backs is posting a 2.09 ERA, but is 3-4 on the season. Due to the fact that his offense hasnt given him any runs. The D'Backs bats appear to have started to heat up as of late, and going against a shaky Marlins pitcher in Nolasco, They should take this easy win on the road.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Matt Rivers

For Monday let's play a rare total and go low between Arizona and Florida.

I definitely do not love totals as they are crap shoots and there is absolutely no rocket science going on here but the way Jon Garland has been pitching on the road and the way his Diamondbacks don't really hit a lick I can't help but believe that this thing has 3-2 written all over it.

Ricky Nolasco is not great and without a doubt has been struggling mightily of late but the Florida righthander should feel fairly comfortable on his home mound and is up against an offense that is just not very good right now. Sure Arizona may be a force to reckon with eventually as guys like Upton, Drew, Young and others are solid young players but many more times than not collectively this group, at this point, just does not score runs.

Florida obviously jumped out of the gate with that 11-1 start to the season but ever since the Marlins have been a bad team. Not all of that at all has been due to the offense however the bats are far from clicking right now and up against Garland should not exactly bust out. Hanley Ramirez is a superstar and can hit anybody but the Arizona starter should be extrenmely fresh after getting rained out in Atlanta on Sunday and continue the success on the highway.

Either team being able to muster four runs today seems like a bit much to me in this spot so therefore I will endorse that under!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Red Dog Sports

Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Play Toronto

Look for Toronto to win again at home on Monday afternoon. Monday is Victoria Day in Canada and there should be a big crowd to watch this game. Clayton Richard starts for the White Sox and his ERA is 10.80 in his last 3 starts. Scott Richmond has pitched well this year but has struggled in his last 3 (6.48 ERA) but the Blue Jays are a good home team.The White Sox are 1-8 in their last 9 on the road and 1-10 in the last 11 at Toronto. The Blue Jays are 6-2 in Richmond's last 8 starts and 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Look for Toronto to win!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

John Ryan

MLB | May 18
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays -162

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face the XWS slated to start at 1:07 EST. CWS are in a series of poor roles for this game that reinforce and under score the grading by the AiS. CWS are just 8-22 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons; 3-15 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus good fielding teams turning 1.1 or more DP's/game over the last 2 seasons; 4-19 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is a stout 12-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season; 15-4 (+9.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Take Toronto.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Mike Rose

Tampa Bay Rays -140

Oakland's struggles with its pitching staff have caused plenty of shuffling in the rotation. Today, RHP Sean Gallagher will take the hill for his second start of the young season. His numbers have never been anything to write home about, but the most startling stat about the 23-year old is that opposing batters are hitting .360 against him this season. In his only other start this year, Gallagher allowed a whopping ten hits over five innings, allowing three runs in Oakland's 6-4 loss to Toronto on May 9th. Historically, he has been an awful pitcher away from home, as he is 0-7 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.85 WHIP for his career in 17 road appearances (11 starts). That doesn't bode well for a team that just got finished allowing 34 runs in three days in Detroit.

RHP Jeff Niemann still isn't getting much in the way of respect from the oddsmakers. He isn't going to be pitching deep into games, as he hasn't completed more than six innings of work once in his young career, but those innings that he is throwing are becoming more and more effective as the season wears on. He allowed two runs in five innings to get the W in his last outing at Camden Yards, which exorcized the demons of allowing five runs before recording an out in his first start of the season there. The biggest bugaboo on Niemann has been his K/BB ratio, which is less than 1.00. This will be the big right-hander's third start at home this season, but it will clearly be a much easier task than facing the White Sox and Red Sox.

History will tell you that Gallagher has been a total gas can, and that trend shouldn't buck tonight. Since the Rays came back from behind 7-0 to beat the Indians on Friday night, everything seems to be kicking just right. Expect to see Tampa Bay's winning streak stretch to four games tonight at the expense of the slumping A's.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

IC

4 Unit Play. Angels/Mariners Under 8.5 (Monday @ 10:10pm). Long story short here, after getting thrown out of the game, I expect Lackey to come out with some fire in his first full start of the year. His last start was obviously cut short as he beaned Ian Kinsler. On top of that, he faces Washburn who comes off a ND at Texas but his team lost 5-6. Wash is the type of pitcher that nearly always bounces back as he is 3-2 with a 3.11era this year and bear in mind the last time he faced the Angels in Anaheim he was roughed up so he has the revenge angle here as well. As per the side, I do think the Ms likely win but more importantly, I think with Lackey wanting to send a message that he is back plus the fact Wash comes off a non-quality start all combines into the fact for this game to likely dip under today. The Under is 8-2 for the Angels overall and the Under is 5-1-1 for the Mariners overall and the Under is 4-1 for Lackey when he faces the Rangers of late.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

KBHoops

10* Split ML/RL Play

5* Toronto -162 **POD**
5* Toronto -1.5 +120

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Anthony Redd

Monday's Card
5 Dime Yankees-Twins Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

The Miller Group picks

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto Blue Jays -160

Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins - under 5.5

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners - under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Yankee Capper

Pittsburgh/Washington Over 10
Milwaukee/St. Louis Over 9
Arizona Diamondbacks -115

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

James Patrick

NY Mets at Los Angeles
Play: LA DODGERS

Back home after going 4-2 on a six-game East Coast road trip, I’ll take the home team tonight against a NY Mets squad that can put men on base but just can’t drive ‘em across the plate. Look for Wolf to outduel Redding as Joe Torre’s team continues its winning ways at home. Dodgers!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Jeff Benton

Colorado at ATLANTA

For Monday’s free play, we’ll take the Braves on the run line (-1½ runs) against Colorado.

Atlanta has its best pitcher, Derek Lowe, on the hill tonight, and he’s going on extra rest after Sunday’s scheduled start against Arizona was rained out. The last time Lowe was on the hill was a week ago tonight when he outdueled Johan Santana in New York, giving up just two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-3 road victory. Atlanta has won four straight games with Lowe on the mound, all by multiple runs, and four of Lowe’s last five outings have been quality starts.

Lowe also had a lot of success against Colorado during his days with the Dodgers … as long as he wasn’t pitching at Coors Field. In fact, the last five times he’s faced the Rockies outside of Colorado, Lowe gave up 10 earned runs in 35 combined innings (2.57 ERA). On the flip side, check out Rockies starter Jason Marquis’ career numbers against the Braves, his former team: 1-3 with an 11.45 ERA in five starts – that’s 28 earned runs, including 10 home runs allowed, in just 22 innings of work!

On top of that, Marquis is coming off two really poor starts against the Giants and Rockies, yielding a combined 16 runs (14 earned) in 9 2/3 innings. Those two performances sent the right-hander’s season ERA soaring from 3.31 to 5.40. And behind Marquis is a Rockies bullpen that’s falling apart (the bully gave up 10 runs in the seventh inning of yesterday’s 11-4 loss at Pittsburgh and has a 6.00 ERA in the Rockies’ last 10 games).

Finally, Colorado comes into this contest having dropped seven of its last 10 games, while Atlanta has won seven of its last 10. Throw in the fact that the home team is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry – with the Braves going 5-0 in the last five played in Atlanta – and I’ll confidently lay the 1½ runs with Lowe and the Braves.

3? ATLANTA -1½

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 5-18-09

Karl Garrett

Minnesota at NY YANKEES

For Monday, take the Yankees on the RUN LINE to complete the 4-game sweep of the Twins.

After 3 straight walk-off 1-run wins - the last pair via the long ball - you get the feeling that Minnesota has got to be demoralized, and will get romped tonight.

Minny is just 3-22 their last 25 games played in the Bronx, and starter Glen Perkins has been giving them up of late, as the southpaw has allowed 14 runs over his last 17 innings.

His counterpart Andy Pettitte is coming off a sparkling 6 innings of 1 run ball in a win over Toronto to improve to 3-1 this season.

The Yankees winning streak is at 5, and you just get the feeling that tonight is going to be the blowout after 3 straight close one.

Take the Yankees on the RUN LINE.

4? YANKEES RUN LINE