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2009 Record: 173-157, +50.4174 Iorgs
Saturday: 6-5, +1.4625 units
I want just one come from behind win with a 2+ run deficit in the 8th or 9th innings to offset these horrific late beats. A's at +146 last night with a 4 run lead in the 8th lose in extras. Ouch!
Momentum could not be any more on the side of the Cavaliers right now. Had that been in Game One, Cleveland would have had a big edge for Game Two since it would have remained home. In this case, the Cavaliers have to travel to Orlando and I think that any momentum gained by the LeBron clutch shot, is lost due to the change in venue. Most importantly, we have seen that Orlando matches up extremely well with the Cavaliers, arguably the toughest matchup they have of any team in the NBA. Also, the fact that the series is tied and Orlando has stolen the home court edge, you can say that it and not the Cavaliers have the momentum edge. Orlando was able to come back in both games from huge deficits and that alone says a lot about the character of this team. The slow starts in both games may be considered an issue as in the two first quarters of the series, Cleveland has held Orlando to 34 percent shooting and 17.5 points per quarter. ESPN analyst Jon Barry summed it up perfectly. “Obviously, a lot of people think Orlando is going to be devastated after LeBron hit that game-winning shot, but the team is going to be fine,” he said. “This is a great series and it's not going to be decided by that shot. I think people put way too much emphasis on how a team does the game before and worry too much about one shot impacting the psyche of a team. NBA teams seem to put a game behind them a lot easier in the playoffs than regular season.” I cannot agree more with that statement since short-term memory is the key and will no doubt be the key for tonight. If there was good that came from the heartbreaking loss, it might be that the Magic now seem to have no fear of the Cavaliers and forward Hedo Turkoglu said that watching the Cavaliers jubilant celebration was fuel for them going into the rest of the series. Cleveland may still be considered the best team in the Eastern Conference or the NBA but it has not fared well against the top teams. The Cavaliers are just 2-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. Orlando meanwhile is 10-2 in its last 12 games dating back to last season against teams outscoring opponents by nine or more ppg. Say what you want about Stan Van Gundy but Orlando is 28-6 ATS off a road loss in games he has coached in Orlando. Also, the Magic are 12-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. 9* Orlando Magic
My "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 4.5 point favorite getting great value. Orlando knows that they are every bit as good as Cleveland if not better. In the two regular season meetings at home the Magic were 3.5 and 5 point favorites winning both 116-87, and 99-88 respectively. Holding the Cavs to a combined 39.2% shooting percentage, while shooting a combined 49.3% themselves. Through the first two games Orlando has shot 51.5% from the field to Cleveland's 47.2%. It's clear that Orlando poses offensive matchup problems for Cleveland. Particularly H.Turkoglu and R.Lewis. Who are a combined 28-56 50% from the field with 81 points. As the series has shifted to Orlando, these will stand out more and more.
1000 Units Orlando over Cleveland When ORLANDO team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 2 years - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog 13-1 ATS in this spot.
1000 Units Top Play NY Yankees over Phidlelphia When NY YANKEES team Played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non conference game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 game win - Coming off a Win vs. NL EAST opponent 11-2 SU in this spot.
50 Units Texas at Houston under the total When HOUSTON team played as a Home team - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a Loss vs. AL WEST opponent - Coming off a Home loss 1-11 O/U in this spot
The Brewers have lost three of four after winning seven in a row and Milwaukee has a 6.55 staff ERA in its last four games after recording a 2.29 ERA during its winning streak. Minnesota has won 5 out of their last 6 games at home against Milwaukee and tonight on ESPN we should see the same outcome.
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