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Tony Weston MONDAY'S PLAYS
25 Dime Lakers
10 Dime Lakers-Nuggets Under
25 Dime Lakers
10 Dime Lakers-Nuggets Under
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Re: 5-25-09
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Phillies as the play host to the Marlins slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-20 making 52.7 units since 1997. Play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. Her eis a second system that has gone 34-8 making 24 units since 2003. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting NL pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season and with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Florida is just 2-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line versus a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season. Plus, the Philly bullpen with the exception of closer Lidge is pitching better and better. Lidge will work his way out of his pitching slump over time, but he is just one pitcher in a very strong group. Take the Phils.Comment
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Re: 5-25-09
Dave M@linsky
6* #514 DENVER over L.A. LAKERS
On Saturday we focused on what we thought were a litany of edges that Denver had over the Lakers going into Game #3, and with the Nuggets winning each of the first three quarters, adding up to an 8-point advantage going into the final period, the path to a winning ticket appeared to be there. Then a team that has played so flawlessly throughout the playoffs turned in their worst quarter of the post-season, getting out-scored 32-18 to not only turn that game around, but to put their backs firmly against the wall here. And while that setting could be awkward for a team with a different mentality, they bring exactly the kind of aggression and intensity to
step up big under the circumstances. We believe that turns this one into a blowout.
Denver did a lot of things right in Game #3 ? more points in the
paint, more fast break points, more steals, fewer turnovers and more offensive rebounds. Those are the hustle categories in which we believe the Nuggets have substantial advantages in this matchup, and once again they easily won the battle of the benches, out-scoring Los Angeles 29-15, with a 17-15 edge in rebounds and 8-5 in assists. So what went wrong? Two areas that can easily turn around. After playing
the best basketball of his career in the first two games, Carmelo Anthony had a foul-plagued outing in which he only made 4-13 field goal attempts, including 1-7 from beyond the arc, and he finished with more fouls than rebounds and more turnovers than assists. That is not going to happen again. And as a team the Nuggets were a dismal 5-27 from 3-point range, dragging down their overall shooting to 39.3
percent. We can also expect that to turn around, and note that even with that awful accuracy they still held a 95-93 lead when Kobe Bryant made that tough triple with 1:09 remaining. On a night in which they got a poor game from a superstar and shot about as poorly from long range as they had all season, they still had the lead almost 47 minutes into the proceedings.
Now not only do we expect a much better performance from the Nuggets, but the Lakers look even more vulnerable. The bench issues are in play again. The limited fuel left in the tank of Derek Fisher showed again on Saturday (only four points and two assists in 26:13). Andrew Bynum continues to show a lack of rhythm and played only 20:47. But the Lakers got big-time games from Bryant and Pau Gasol, who scored
61 of their 103 points. That, however, comes at a toll. Bryant had to have an IV solution after the game, and only shot free throws in practice yesterday. Meanwhile Gasol is off of a draining 42:53, and he and Bryant played more minutes than anyone else on the floor. That particularly matters because of the Denver altitude, and their ability to regenerate after just one day off, and having had more than one day off only once since the start of the Houston series, raises serious flags for tonight. And Trevor Ariza, who has been an integral part of the Laker floor game, is being bothered by both a
hip pointer and a strained groin. This is a fragile team for this
setting, one that will not be able to take the kind of punch being thrown by the home team and still be able to stay on their feet.Comment
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Re: 5-25-09
EZ Winners
2009 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL RECORD
10 STAR 1-0 (+10.00 UNITS)
5 STAR 10-10 (+22.27 UNITS)
3 STAR 23-29 (-13.74 UNITS)
2 STAR 25-30 (-5.58 UNITS)
1 STAR 22-19 (+8.02 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 81-86 (+20.97 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $2097
2* Reds -102
2* Tigers -129
2* Rays -103
1* Pirates +106
Free- Cardinals +102Comment
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Re: 5-25-09
Jeff Benton
Monday's winners ...
15 Dime: Lakers-Nuggets UNDER the total
10 Dime: RANGERS (over Yankees) ... NOTE: List both Harrison and Hughes as the starting pitchers. If either does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Lakers-Nuggets UNDER the total
You can’t ignore the numbers. Of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Lakers, nine of them have played “under” the total. And each of the last six meetings in Denver has stayed low. What’s more, the under has cashed in each of the Lakers’ last seven playoff games going back to Game 4 of the Rockets series, and L.A. has held seven of its last nine opponents under triple digits and hasn’t given up more than 106 points in any of its last 10 games.
Back to this rivalry: In the last nine meetings, the winning team has scored 107 points or fewer six times, and on five occasions during this stretch, one of the two teams didn’t crack triple digits. So far in this series, Denver is averaging 102 ppg and shooting 43.9 percent from the field and the Lakers are putting up 103.7 ppg and also shooting 43.9 percent. And in addition to that, neither squad is shooting free throws very well in this series, particularly Los Angeles in the last two games.
Finally, in addition to their current 7-0 “under” run, the Lakers are on “under” streaks that include 23-9 overall, 8-0 in conference finals games, 6-0 against the Northwest Division (including 3-0 in the final three games of the Jazz series in the opening round), 5-1 on the road and 20-7 when playing after one day of rest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have stayed low in four straight games against Pacific Division squads and six of their last eight when laying less than five points.
Bottom line: There are just way too many signs pointing to the Lakers and Nuggets going under the total once more, and barring overtime – which is impossible to forecast – we’ll see this one fall short of the number.
Rangers
At some point, the Texas Rangers are going to start getting respect from the oddsmakers. But right now, they’re not, and it’s especially true today as Texas should be a sizeable favorite in this series opener against the Yankees. After yesterday’s 5-0 shutout win over the Astros completed a three-game interleague sweep, the Rangers are now 10-3 in their last 13 games and 16-5 in their last 21. That includes eight consecutive home wins, and for the season, Texas is 14-6 in its own ballpark, batting .303 as a team with a very respectable 4.43 ERA.
By comparison, the Yankees are just 11-10 on the road with a .267 team average and a 4.81 team ERA. Speaking of the road, the last time New York starter Phil Hughes worked on a foreign mound, he didn’t even get out of the second inning in Baltimore as he got rocked for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings. So far, Hughes has made two road starts and posted a 9.39 ERA, allowing eight runs in 7 2/3 innings, and that was against offenses not nearly as potent as Texas’.
Another problem for Hughes is he’s not giving New York innings. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of his last four outings, going a total of 15 2/3 frames in those five contests. That’s a big deal because the Yankees’ bullpen before Mariano Rivera is really weak.
Finally, Rangers starter Matt Harrison is proving he’s the real deal. He’s 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA overall but 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his last three starts and 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA at home, which is one of the toughest pitchers parks in baseball. The Rangers are 4-1 in Harrison’s last five trips to the mound (2-0 at home), and the fact he comes from the left side is important because the Yankees are hitting just .264 against southpaws over the past 10 contests.
Bottom line: We’ve got a hot team with a superior starting pitcher playing at home where they’ve dominated all season, and they’re laying this cheap price. Love Texas in this one!Comment
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Re: 5-25-09
Maddux MLB picks
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#951 - MLB - 3 units on Cincinnati +110
#954 - MLB - 3 units on Milwaukee -115
#955 - MLB - 3 units on LA Dodgers +127
#971 - MLB - 3 units on Boston +115
#975 - MLB - 3 units on Seattle +128
#977 - MLB - 3 units on Tampa Bay +10Comment
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Re: 5-25-09
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 2009 3:40PM
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
Your pick will be graded at: -125 Belmont
EXPERT: Stephen Nover
REASON FOR PICK: I'm not impressed with the Padres bringing a nine-game winning streak into this matchup.
San Diego is not a good team. All nine of the Padres' victories came at Petco Park.
Playing at Chase Field is something much different for the Padres. They are a major-league worst 5-16 on the road. The Padres have lost 11 in a row on the road.
The Diamondbacks are playing better and with more confidence. They are 4-1 in their last five games.
I look for Doug Davis to bounce back and have another solid start against the Padres. Davis was 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA against the Padres last year. He is 5-1 versus San Diego with a 2.40 ERA during the past three seasons.
The Padres are going with Chad Gaudin, a journeyman No. 5 type pitcher.
This is a one-unit play for me.Comment
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