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Larry Ness Monday
Oddsmaker's Error - MLB
The Yanks missed the postseason last year for the first time since 1993 and reloaded this year with a bevy of high priced free agents (nothing new there). The Yanks stumbled out of the blocks and after losing a two-game series at home against the Rays on May 6 and 7, were just 13-15. However, they have won 12 of their last 16 since, despite losing two of three at home over the weekend to the defending World Series champs. The 25-19 Yanks have climbed within a game of first-place Boston, despite their 5.12 team ERA. As for the Rangers, not much was expected of them in 2009. They haven't won a division title since 1999 but Texas leads the AL West this year, entering Memorial Day with a 26-17 record. Everyone knew the Rangers could hit, as they led the majors last year in both BA (,283) and runs scored (901) but last year's pitching staff finished with a ML-high 5.36 ERA. Texas once again owns one of the league's best offenses but its the team's improvement on the mound which has them talking postseason. Brandon McCarthy pitched a nine-hitter in Sunday's 5-0 win over Houston (his first career CG), which completed a three-game sweep. The team's ERA is 3.20 in May and at its 4.39 ERA on the season ranks 14th in MLB (quite an improvement). Texas has now won 16 of its last 21 games and opens this three-game series with the Yankees on an eight-game home winning streak. The Rangers have hit .305 and scored 48 runs (six per game) during the streak. While a pitching rebirth has been instrumental in Texas' good play this year, the Yanks have struggled with their pitching all season. Their team ERA is 5.12 entering this game, ranking them 26th in the majors. The Yankees have been "talking up" Phil Hughes for a few years now but he may be pitching to "stay in the rotation," this afternoon. Chien-Ming Wang is seemingly healthy and about ready to return. Hughes looked promising back in 2007, going 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts. However, he was dreadful in his eight starts last year, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA (team was 3-5). His first start of 2009 came on April 28 and he was very good (6 IP / 2 hits / 0 runs), as the Yanks routed the Tigers, 11-0. However, in four starts since, he's allowed 27 hits and 17 ERs in just 15.2 innings, for a 9.77 ERA. His last outing vs Baltimore was by far the best of those four outings (5 IP / 6 hits / 3 ERs) but it helped that the Yankees got him 11 runs. Here he'll face a Texas team which has won eight straight at home, going 14-6 in Rangers Ballpark on the year (averaging 6.45 RPG) and is a perfect 5-0 in afternoon home games vs right-handers. Texas will counter with left-hander Matt Harrison, who is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA in eight starts. He had won four straight starts and thrown back-to-back complete games but in his last outing (at Detroit this past Wednesday), allowed five ERs and three HRs in five innings of a 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Still, Harrison has been pretty good for Texas this year and the Yanks have struggled the last two seasons against lefties away from Yankee Stadium. They are 2-2 in the early going of 2009 in that situation but that follows records of 11-15 (in 2008) and 5-14 (in 2007) vs left-handed starters on the road. Hughes vs this Texas lineup here in Arlington is a HUGE mismatch (favoring the Rangers) and the lefty Harrison should keep New York's daunting lineup in check. The way Texas has played at home, there is no reason for this line to be so cheap, other than the opposing team is wearing those famous pinstripes.
Oddsmaker's Error on the Tex Rangers
7* Daytime Dominator - MLB
Not much went right for the Tigers in 2008, as they fell to 74-88 and their moneyline mark of minus-$2,917 was the third-worst in all of MLB. Justin Verlander, a star in his first two seasons of MLB (2006 and 2007), fell as hard as anyone in Detroit. He finished last season 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA in 33 starts, with the Tigers going 13-20 in those starts, as his moneyline mark of minus-$1,351 ranked him dead-last among MLB's starting pitchers! Verlander opened the 2009 season with a 9.00 ERA through four starts but the "old Verlander" has returned in his last five outings. He is 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA (team is 4-1), with an amazing 52 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings. Verlander is 4-2 on the season and is ERA is down to 3.99 ERA. He had a chance to become the first Detroit pitcher to strike out at least 10 in four straight starts in his last outing (last Wednesday against Texas), but he "only" recorded eight Ks in the team's 5-3 win. The Tigers dropped the final two games of their weekend series against Colorado but at 24-18, they lead the AL Central. The Royals are 20-20 and find themselves in second-place, three games back of the Tigers. KC had been shut out in back-to-back 5-0 losses to open its weekend series at St Louis but salvaged the finale against the Cardinals on Sunday, escaping with a 3-2 win. The KC bats have been pretty 'quiet' during the team's recent slide, as the Royals are averaging just 3.2 RPG while losing 11 of their last 15 games. Gil Meche took a lot of 'heat' for the big free agent deal he signed with KC prior to the 2007 season, as he had just a 55-46 career mark with the Mariners when he signed a $55 million deal with the Royals (one million per win). However, he quieted those critics with back-to-back solid seasons, with ERAs of 3.67 (2007) and 3.98 (2008). However, it's not easy getting wins when pitching for the Royals and Meche entered this year 23-24 in his two seasons with KC. Meche has been dealing with an ailing back this season and that could explain some of his recent struggles. He looked pretty good in his last outing though, going six innings and allowing just two runs last Wednesday against Cleveland. However, he came away with a no decision as the bullpen didn't do its job in a 6-5 Cleveland win. Meche is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in starts nine (team is 3-6) and the truth is, he was pitching far better earlier in the year than he has lately. Meche was 1-4 with a 6.33 ERA in his previous five starts before Wednesday's outing vs the Indians. He figures to need some run support to win here and that's not likely, as the Royals haven't been hitting plus they've NEVER done well vs Verlander, who comes in pitching great. Not only is Verlander in "top form" but he's 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Royals (Tigers are 8-3 in those games).
Daytime Dominator on the Det Tigers
Weekly Wipeout Winner - NBA
The "old" Nuggets showed up in Game 3 on Saturday night. Denver hadn't made it past the first round of the NBA playoffs since 1994, but this year's team took care of both the Hornets and Mavs in five games, reaching the Western Conference finals for the first time since 1985. They then outplayed the Lakers in both games in LA, returning home with the series tied at one game apiece. The Pepsi Center was psyched but the Nuggets played an undisciplined game, shooting a playoff-low 39 percent from the floor. They were just horrific from behind the arc, missing 22 of 27 shots. Carmelo Anthony was 1-for-7, Chauncey Billups 2-for-7 and JR Smith 2-for-10, in what was an 'ugly' performance. In the end, Kobe's 41 points (13 in the 4th quarter) and another late Ariza steal (his steal in Game 1 'saved' LA in that one), gave LA a 2-1 series lead. The loss was Denver's first at home in the postseason and ended a 16-game home winning streak. I had the Lakers in Game 3, pointing out they were an NBA-best 29-12 on the road during the regular season. Yes, they had been just 2-3 on the road in the postseason prior to Saturday's game but the two wins came in very similar situations to Saturday night's game. LA was up 2-0 vs the Jazz in Round 1, before losing Game 3, 88-86. Knowing Utah could tie the series with a win in Game 4, the Lakers left little doubt as to which was the better team in Game 4, winning 108-94. Then in the second round, LA traveled back to Houston after splitting the first two games of its series with the Rockets at home and won Game 3, 108-94. I also noted that the Lakers have been terrific as underdogs, now 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 opportunities, including 14 outright wins and that playoff history was also on my side. The Lakers are now 16-3 SU the last 19 games when coming of an upset loss, including a perfect 5-0 in the 2009 postseason. However, as we saw in the Houston series, the Lakers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this postseason. While I don't like giving the Lakers any points (see that underdog record above, they are NOT coming offa n upset loss in this one but rather, an upset win (big difference). Let's not forget that Denver had been 11-0-1 ATS this postseason before Saturday's loss and that other than Gasol and Ariza, Kobe has been getting very little help this postseason. Fisher may have given a great "win one for the Gripper" speech in Game 3 but he's can't 'buy' a basket (especially from three-point land) plus Bynum has become a total non-factor with he and Phil Jackson not even talking. Then there is Lamar Odom, easily one of the league's most gifted and multi-talented players, who often is "nowhere to be found." I don't know if I'll ever be 100 percent sold on Karl or the Nuggets but this sure seems like an excellent spot for them to get a big win, as LA throws in another 'clunker' of a performance.
Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Den Nuggets
Oddsmaker's Error - MLB
The Yanks missed the postseason last year for the first time since 1993 and reloaded this year with a bevy of high priced free agents (nothing new there). The Yanks stumbled out of the blocks and after losing a two-game series at home against the Rays on May 6 and 7, were just 13-15. However, they have won 12 of their last 16 since, despite losing two of three at home over the weekend to the defending World Series champs. The 25-19 Yanks have climbed within a game of first-place Boston, despite their 5.12 team ERA. As for the Rangers, not much was expected of them in 2009. They haven't won a division title since 1999 but Texas leads the AL West this year, entering Memorial Day with a 26-17 record. Everyone knew the Rangers could hit, as they led the majors last year in both BA (,283) and runs scored (901) but last year's pitching staff finished with a ML-high 5.36 ERA. Texas once again owns one of the league's best offenses but its the team's improvement on the mound which has them talking postseason. Brandon McCarthy pitched a nine-hitter in Sunday's 5-0 win over Houston (his first career CG), which completed a three-game sweep. The team's ERA is 3.20 in May and at its 4.39 ERA on the season ranks 14th in MLB (quite an improvement). Texas has now won 16 of its last 21 games and opens this three-game series with the Yankees on an eight-game home winning streak. The Rangers have hit .305 and scored 48 runs (six per game) during the streak. While a pitching rebirth has been instrumental in Texas' good play this year, the Yanks have struggled with their pitching all season. Their team ERA is 5.12 entering this game, ranking them 26th in the majors. The Yankees have been "talking up" Phil Hughes for a few years now but he may be pitching to "stay in the rotation," this afternoon. Chien-Ming Wang is seemingly healthy and about ready to return. Hughes looked promising back in 2007, going 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts. However, he was dreadful in his eight starts last year, going 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA (team was 3-5). His first start of 2009 came on April 28 and he was very good (6 IP / 2 hits / 0 runs), as the Yanks routed the Tigers, 11-0. However, in four starts since, he's allowed 27 hits and 17 ERs in just 15.2 innings, for a 9.77 ERA. His last outing vs Baltimore was by far the best of those four outings (5 IP / 6 hits / 3 ERs) but it helped that the Yankees got him 11 runs. Here he'll face a Texas team which has won eight straight at home, going 14-6 in Rangers Ballpark on the year (averaging 6.45 RPG) and is a perfect 5-0 in afternoon home games vs right-handers. Texas will counter with left-hander Matt Harrison, who is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA in eight starts. He had won four straight starts and thrown back-to-back complete games but in his last outing (at Detroit this past Wednesday), allowed five ERs and three HRs in five innings of a 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Still, Harrison has been pretty good for Texas this year and the Yanks have struggled the last two seasons against lefties away from Yankee Stadium. They are 2-2 in the early going of 2009 in that situation but that follows records of 11-15 (in 2008) and 5-14 (in 2007) vs left-handed starters on the road. Hughes vs this Texas lineup here in Arlington is a HUGE mismatch (favoring the Rangers) and the lefty Harrison should keep New York's daunting lineup in check. The way Texas has played at home, there is no reason for this line to be so cheap, other than the opposing team is wearing those famous pinstripes.
Oddsmaker's Error on the Tex Rangers
7* Daytime Dominator - MLB
Not much went right for the Tigers in 2008, as they fell to 74-88 and their moneyline mark of minus-$2,917 was the third-worst in all of MLB. Justin Verlander, a star in his first two seasons of MLB (2006 and 2007), fell as hard as anyone in Detroit. He finished last season 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA in 33 starts, with the Tigers going 13-20 in those starts, as his moneyline mark of minus-$1,351 ranked him dead-last among MLB's starting pitchers! Verlander opened the 2009 season with a 9.00 ERA through four starts but the "old Verlander" has returned in his last five outings. He is 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA (team is 4-1), with an amazing 52 strikeouts in just 35.1 innings. Verlander is 4-2 on the season and is ERA is down to 3.99 ERA. He had a chance to become the first Detroit pitcher to strike out at least 10 in four straight starts in his last outing (last Wednesday against Texas), but he "only" recorded eight Ks in the team's 5-3 win. The Tigers dropped the final two games of their weekend series against Colorado but at 24-18, they lead the AL Central. The Royals are 20-20 and find themselves in second-place, three games back of the Tigers. KC had been shut out in back-to-back 5-0 losses to open its weekend series at St Louis but salvaged the finale against the Cardinals on Sunday, escaping with a 3-2 win. The KC bats have been pretty 'quiet' during the team's recent slide, as the Royals are averaging just 3.2 RPG while losing 11 of their last 15 games. Gil Meche took a lot of 'heat' for the big free agent deal he signed with KC prior to the 2007 season, as he had just a 55-46 career mark with the Mariners when he signed a $55 million deal with the Royals (one million per win). However, he quieted those critics with back-to-back solid seasons, with ERAs of 3.67 (2007) and 3.98 (2008). However, it's not easy getting wins when pitching for the Royals and Meche entered this year 23-24 in his two seasons with KC. Meche has been dealing with an ailing back this season and that could explain some of his recent struggles. He looked pretty good in his last outing though, going six innings and allowing just two runs last Wednesday against Cleveland. However, he came away with a no decision as the bullpen didn't do its job in a 6-5 Cleveland win. Meche is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in starts nine (team is 3-6) and the truth is, he was pitching far better earlier in the year than he has lately. Meche was 1-4 with a 6.33 ERA in his previous five starts before Wednesday's outing vs the Indians. He figures to need some run support to win here and that's not likely, as the Royals haven't been hitting plus they've NEVER done well vs Verlander, who comes in pitching great. Not only is Verlander in "top form" but he's 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Royals (Tigers are 8-3 in those games).
Daytime Dominator on the Det Tigers
Weekly Wipeout Winner - NBA
The "old" Nuggets showed up in Game 3 on Saturday night. Denver hadn't made it past the first round of the NBA playoffs since 1994, but this year's team took care of both the Hornets and Mavs in five games, reaching the Western Conference finals for the first time since 1985. They then outplayed the Lakers in both games in LA, returning home with the series tied at one game apiece. The Pepsi Center was psyched but the Nuggets played an undisciplined game, shooting a playoff-low 39 percent from the floor. They were just horrific from behind the arc, missing 22 of 27 shots. Carmelo Anthony was 1-for-7, Chauncey Billups 2-for-7 and JR Smith 2-for-10, in what was an 'ugly' performance. In the end, Kobe's 41 points (13 in the 4th quarter) and another late Ariza steal (his steal in Game 1 'saved' LA in that one), gave LA a 2-1 series lead. The loss was Denver's first at home in the postseason and ended a 16-game home winning streak. I had the Lakers in Game 3, pointing out they were an NBA-best 29-12 on the road during the regular season. Yes, they had been just 2-3 on the road in the postseason prior to Saturday's game but the two wins came in very similar situations to Saturday night's game. LA was up 2-0 vs the Jazz in Round 1, before losing Game 3, 88-86. Knowing Utah could tie the series with a win in Game 4, the Lakers left little doubt as to which was the better team in Game 4, winning 108-94. Then in the second round, LA traveled back to Houston after splitting the first two games of its series with the Rockets at home and won Game 3, 108-94. I also noted that the Lakers have been terrific as underdogs, now 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 opportunities, including 14 outright wins and that playoff history was also on my side. The Lakers are now 16-3 SU the last 19 games when coming of an upset loss, including a perfect 5-0 in the 2009 postseason. However, as we saw in the Houston series, the Lakers have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this postseason. While I don't like giving the Lakers any points (see that underdog record above, they are NOT coming offa n upset loss in this one but rather, an upset win (big difference). Let's not forget that Denver had been 11-0-1 ATS this postseason before Saturday's loss and that other than Gasol and Ariza, Kobe has been getting very little help this postseason. Fisher may have given a great "win one for the Gripper" speech in Game 3 but he's can't 'buy' a basket (especially from three-point land) plus Bynum has become a total non-factor with he and Phil Jackson not even talking. Then there is Lamar Odom, easily one of the league's most gifted and multi-talented players, who often is "nowhere to be found." I don't know if I'll ever be 100 percent sold on Karl or the Nuggets but this sure seems like an excellent spot for them to get a big win, as LA throws in another 'clunker' of a performance.
Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Den Nuggets
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