5-28-09

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  • Mr. IWS
    215 Hustler
    • Sep 2006
    • 98662

    #16
    Re: 5-28-09

    Dave m@linsky

    4* BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Hernandez)-110 over Detroit Tigers (Galarraga)

    For a team in last place, the Baltimore Orioles have played some decent baseball being in the A.L. East simply does that to a team. What is also does is to under-rate them when stepping out of that difficult division, one that is a collective 10 games over .500 against outside competition this season. This game provides a classic example. 28 of 47 Baltimore games have come against teams that currently sport winning records, while only 16 of 45 Detroit opponents are over .500. And the David Hernandez vs. Armando Galarraga matchup gives us the tools to take advantage this opportunity. The Orioles have been careful to not rush Hernandez, but his numbers show that he is more than ready for the challenge of a Major League mound. He was given a full season at AA ball LY, working to a 10-4/2.68 with 166 strikeouts vs. only 112 hits allowed, and in eight starts at AAA this season it was a 3-1/2.91 with a dominating count of 60 strikeouts vs. only 33 hits allowed. He enters on a run of back-to-back shutouts in which he struck out 20 while allowing only five hits, and not only does his presence bring a spark tonight, but also the fact that the rest of the team is on a major high after making that dramatic rally to beat Toronto on Wednesday, getting a season-high 18 hits in the process (six different players had multiple hits). They were particularly buoyed by the return of Luke Scott, who went 2-4 with a home run and three rbi?s, and the addition of another big left-handed bat matters in this matchup against Galarraga. There may not have been a bigger surprise in the Major Leagues Ly than the Detroit right-hander, an unheralded prospect that turned in a solid 13-7/3.03 campaign. But after getting off to a good start this season the wheels have come off ? he has worked to an 0-4/9.93 over five May starts, and has been every bit as bad as that suggests, with eight home runs allowed in 22.2 innings, and more walks than strikeouts through that span. And it was not as though he was pitching batting practice in the All Star game ? the five teams he has faced in May are a collective 30 games under .500. His biggest weakness is allowing the long ball to left-handed hitters, with 25 blasts in 466 at-bats the past two seasons, and the combination of the Oriole lineup and the friendly right field wall at Camden Yards makes this a particularly difficult matchup for him.
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    • Mr. IWS
      215 Hustler
      • Sep 2006
      • 98662

      #17
      Re: 5-28-09

      Triple Crown

      3* Baltimore
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      • Mr. IWS
        215 Hustler
        • Sep 2006
        • 98662

        #18
        Re: 5-28-09

        C-Stars Sports

        1000 Units Top Play Cleveland minus the points over Orlando
        50 units Boston over Minnesota
        50 Units Cubs over Dodgers
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        • Mr. IWS
          215 Hustler
          • Sep 2006
          • 98662

          #19
          Re: 5-28-09

          PICK: under
          Your pick will be graded at: 190.5 betED
          EXPERT: Stephen Nover
          REASON FOR PICK: The Cavaliers are out of balance on offense. Most likely they'll win this home game down 3-1, but they'll do it with defense.

          Orlando isn't going to shoot 50 percent like it did in Game 4, nor make 17-of-38 shots from beyond the arc. Cleveland's perimeter defense is too strong for that. I don't trust Orlando's erratic point guard Rafer Alston on the road either.

          LeBron James is the best player in basketball. His offense gets all the attention. But he's also become a darn good defender, too. Cavaliers coach Mike Brown is a defensive-oriented coach. He knows he's going to need James on the defensive end, which could mean less James on offense and more of a reliance on the lesser Cavaliers scorers.

          Cavaliers on the money line probably is the safest play. But I wouldn't recommend laying that kind of price. The Magic have been playing too well for the Cavaliers to be laying this many points. But Cleveland is due. I expect the Cavaliers to have their strongest defensive game. So my play is on the under for three units with the total jacked up because of the Game 4 explosion
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          • Mr. IWS
            215 Hustler
            • Sep 2006
            • 98662

            #20
            Re: 5-28-09

            jeff benton

            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

            Thursday's winner ...
            30 Dime: CAVALIERS in the First Half ONLY (minus the points vs. Magic)

            SPECIAL NOTE: This is a first-half play on Cleveland ONLY! Again, you're to play Cleveland minust the points in the first half!



            Cavaliers (First Half ONLY)

            Surprised? Surprised after riding the Magic four straight times and cashing four straight winners in this series that I would jump off Orlando tonight in Game 5 despite the fact it has all the momentum while the Cavaliers have all the pressure. Despite the fact the Magic have OWNED Cleveland? Despite the fact I’ve been telling you for more than a week now that Orlando is a terrible matchup for the Cavaliers? Allow me to explain.First off, even though they’ve had major problems with the Magic for the last two-plus seasons, I have no doubt that the Cavaliers are going to win this game tonight and force a Game 6. Not to go all Oliver Stone on you, but you can be sure that the NBA has sent word to its officiating crew tonight to, well, let’s just say protect the home team, much the same way that the Lakers were protected versus the Nuggets last night. I am not, however, 100 percent confident that Cleveland can cover this big number for the entire game, because, A) they haven’t shown all season they can cash against Orlando, and B) they’ve been prone to second-half collapses in this series.
            On the other hand, the Cavs have been an outstanding first-half team in this series. Get this: In Games 1 and 2 at home, Cleveland led Orlando 63-48 and 56-44 at the break, easily cashing the first-half ticket in both games. Then in Game 3 in Orlando, the Cavs trailed just 42-41 after two periods, but they came back in Game 4 on Tuesday and had a 58-50 halftime advantage.In fact, if you check out Cleveland’s boxscores in their six playoff home games so far, you’ll see they led at halftime in every contest by the following margins: 12, 14, 5, 24, 15 and 12 points. And they covered the spread in five of those six games, and with one more bucket in Game 1 against Atlanta, the Cavs would be 6-for-6 in first halves at home.Bottom line: If there’s one thing I’m absolutely certain of tonight it’s that the Cavs are going to come out like a team possessed, and nobody more so than LeBron James. At the same time, the Magic have come out flat in the first half in every game of this series so far, getting outscored by an average margin of 54.5 to 46. Now, up 3-1 in this series, it would only be natural for Orlando to lack focus and intensity in this contest, at least early on. If that happens, there’s a very good chance the Cavaliers will go into the locker room at the half up 20-plus points.
            Simply put, without question the best value on the board tonight is the first half of this Game 5 showdown in Cleveland. Look for the Cavaliers to make an early statement and pounce on Orlando from the opening tip and cash easily.
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            • Mr. IWS
              215 Hustler
              • Sep 2006
              • 98662

              #21
              Re: 5-28-09

              charlie
              mlb. cleveland-7' (500*).
              nba. orlando 2 cleveland under 190 (30*)
              mlb. dodgers+120 (20*)
              mlb. arizona-125 (20*)
              mlb. minnesota+115 (10*)
              mlb. tampa bay-120 (10*) free play
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              • Mr. IWS
                215 Hustler
                • Sep 2006
                • 98662

                #22
                Re: 5-28-09

                Trace Adams

                1500* - Orlando Magic,
                500* - Detroit w/Galarraga over Hernandez




                2 of the first 4 games in this series have been decided by just 1-point. Tuesday's game was decided by a basket in overtime, and the other game contested was a 10-point Magic win. Now you want to give me 7-plus points with underdog Orlando this evening?!?!?!

                Really!?!?!?!?

                OK, I am game!

                Orlando has shown not just in this series, but during the regular season that they just match up well with the # 1 seeded Cavaliers, and boy is it evident in this series, as the Magic has a strangle-hold now, up 3 games to 1.

                The Magic has now won 7 of the last 9 series meetings straight up, and they are on a 19-7-1 spread run in this series the last 27 meetings.

                No way I am going against Orlando in this spot. Cleveland needs to show me they can put this team away, and I just don't see it happening.

                1500? - Orlando Magic

                Baltimore just enjoyed feasting on the fading Blue Jays, but I don't see the feast continuing against a Detroit team that is also off a Wednesday win, and has won 8 of their last 11.

                Sure, it is easy to go against Armando Galarraga right now, as the righty has now lost his last 4 decisions, and in pretty ugly fashion, but you can't tell me he is not the more battle-tested starter in this lineup tonight?

                David Hernandez will make his major league debut, and my money is on the first place Central Division-leading Tigers to get some run support for Galarraga, and get him back on track.

                Take the Tigers.

                500? - Detroit w/Galarraga over Hernandez

                ??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play
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                • Mr. IWS
                  215 Hustler
                  • Sep 2006
                  • 98662

                  #23
                  Re: 5-28-09

                  Brian Edwards

                  Orlando at Cleveland
                  Play: Over 190.5

                  The 'over' is 3-1 in this series and 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams. The main reason for these 'overs' is moderately low totals and tons of fouls and trips to the charity stripe. As the play gets more physical, the more officials try to keep the games under control (well, L.A. and Denver last night was an exception, but that's because the refs swallowed the whistles and allowed both teams to beat each other up in the fourth quarter) and free-throws galore obviously help 'over' backers. So did 3-pointers galore by the Magic, who hit 17 in Game 4 and hoisted 44. We'll get another 'over' winner tonight.
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