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Re: 5-30-09
ness writeups
As I wrote last night in taking the Rays over the Twins, Tampa Bay had 'limped' home after a 2-5 road trip. The trip concluded with four straight losses at Cleveland, which had entered the series with the worst record in the league, leaving the Rays with an incredible 17-game losing streak at Jacobs Field. However, the Rays opened a six-game homestand last night with a 5-3 victory over the Twins (24-26). Evan Longoria led the way with a three-run HR, which helped snap the Rays' season-high five-game skid." The win was Tampa Bay's sixth in its last eight games at Tropicana Field, where last season the Rays went 57-24 and won more money than any team in MLB (plus-$2,701). The Rays are just 12-10 at home so far this year but the team's average of 5.91 RPG at home, bodes well. As for Minnesota, the Twins road woes continue. The Twins have now lost 10 of their 11 away from the Metrodome (lone win was that 20-1 game at the White Sox) and they are a major league-worst 5-15 on the road for the season. Francisco Liriano will get the start for the Twins this afternoon. He was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in his memorable rookie season of 2006 in 28 appearances (16 starts). However, he sat out all of 2007 with arm trouble and made just 14 starts last year, going 6-4 with a 3.91 ERA (team was 6-8). He'll look to avoid losing a third straight start in this one. He allowed seven ERs and seven hits in four innings of a 7-4 loss to the Chicago White? Sox on May 20 and gave up five ERs and a season-high 11 hits in four innings of plast Monday's 6-5 loss to Boston. He's 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA this season in 10 starts (team is 3-7). The Rays will counter with David Price. He was MLB's No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft and was 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA in the minors a year ago before being called up Sept 13. He posted a 1.93 ERA in five appearances and helped the Rays advance to the World Series. He then had a 1.59 ERA in five postseason relief outings. He began this year in the minors because the Rays didn't want to overwork him but he hasn't gotten off to as good of a start as most anticipated. He went just 1-4 with a 3.93 ERA in eight Triple-A starts and made his season-debut on Memorial Day at Cleveland, replacing Scott Kazmir who went on the 15-day DL a week ago with a strained right quadriceps (it was the game in which the Rays blew a 10-0 lead!). He didn't last four innings, allowing two runs on four hits in 3.2 innings. He threw 100 pitches, racking up high counts with five walks and six strikeouts. The good news here is that Price has "great stuff" and will face an Minnesota team in a road funk (lost 10 of 11 and own MLB's worst road record) and one which is particularly poor vs left-handers. The Twins went just 11-21 on the road vs lefties last year and this year are still winless in that situation, going 0-6 while averaging 2.7 RPG. Expect Price to get his first win of 2009, right here! Daytime Dominator 15* TB Rays.
The Orioles have won the first two games of their four-game home series with the Tigers, giving them five straight wins and seven wins in their last eight. That's quite a turnaround from a team which had gone 10-23 from April 15 through May 21, before beginning its current hot streak. Speaking of turnarounds, while the Tigers have lost 5-1 and 7-2 the last two days, the team which stumbled to a 74-88 mark in 2009 (owned third-worst mone?yline mark of minus-$2,917), enters this game 26-21 and with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AL Central. Justin Verlander will get the call for the Tigers tonight and he's been a big part of Detroit's turnaround in 2009. He was a star in his first two seasons of MLB (2006 and 2007) but fell as hard as anyone in Detroit last season. He finished the 2008 season 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA in 33 starts, with the Tigers going 13-20 in those starts (his moneyline mark of minus-$1,351 ranked him dead-last among MLB's starting pitchers!). Verlander opened the 2009 season with a 9.00 ERA through four starts but the "old Verlander" has returned in his last six outings. Verlander allowed five hits while striking out eight in seven scoreless innings of a 13-1 rout of Kansas City on Memorial Day. He's now 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last six starts (team is 5-1), striking out an amazing 60 batters in just 42.1 innings. Making matters worse for the Orioles, he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four career starts vs them (Tigers are 4-0). The Orioles will counter with Jeremy Guthrie, who's coming off one of his best starts of the season. He gave up just one ER and seven hits over seven innings of a 4-1 victory over the Blue Jays on Monday but let's remember, the Jays were in a tailspin which saw them go 0-9 on that road trip. Let me point out that in Guthrie's previous seven starts, he was 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA (team lost SIX of the seven). Guthrie doesn't have much of a history against the Tigers, going 1-0 with a 4.85 ERA in one start and three relief appearances against them. This one should be easy. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* Det Tigers.
The Brewers managed just three hits but two were HRs, including Fielder's two-run shot in the first. The three runs were good enough, as the Reds scored just twice. Milwaukee has scored just 15 runs (2.14 per game) in a 2-5 stretch, batting only .195 as a team with just four HRs (two came last night!). It hasn't helped that leadoff hitter Rickie Weekes was lost for the season on May 17, after suffering a wrist injury. However, he's gone and the Brewers will adapt. Milwaukee was an excellent home team in 2006 and 2007 (99-63) but the team's road struggles (59-103) kept them out of the playoff picture. However, the Brewers went 41-40 away from Miller Park last year (49-32 at home) and made the postseason for the first time since 1982. No pitcher mirrored the team's home/away dichotomy better than Dave Bush. From 2006-08, the Brewers were 32-15 in Bush's home starts but just 14-32 in his road starts. Bush enters tonight's game 3-1 with a 3.92 ERA this season in nine starts. He allowed four ERs and five hits (two HRs) over 6.2 innings of a 6-3 loss at Minnesota last Sunday. However, he had been 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his previous six starts, which were all Milwaukee wins. When Bush is on the mound for the Brewers at Miller Park, the Brewers are always going to be 'live!' The Reds are dealing with a key injury of their own, as they could be without Joey Votto (he's batting .357), after he left in the second inning of last night's game. He has now left three consecutive games immediately after flights, due to complications from an inner ear infection. The Reds have been solid on the road this year (13-9) but will have no easy task tonight. Aaron Harang gets the start and after back-to-back 16-win seasons in 2006 and 2007 (the Reds were 24-10 in his starts in '07, making him MLB's biggest moneymaker at plus-$1,347), Harang was 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA last year (team was 12-17 and minus-$640). He enters this game 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 10 starts in 2009 (team is 5-5) but he's coming off a tough start in his last outing. Harang kept working during a rain delay of more than two hours on Memorial Day and was able to get the final out of the fifth inning of an 8-5 win over Houston. "I think I threw a complete game with all the work I did inside," Harang said. It's "my bet," that outing will have some effect here, plus I get to back a strong home team with a pitcher who thrives in his home starts, at a very favorable price. Situational Mismatch 15* Mil Brewers.Comment
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Re: 5-30-09
B Lang
Saturday ...
20 Dime Orlando Magic
10 Dime Over Magic/Cavaliers
5 Dime Tigers Run Line
5 Dime Cardinals Run Line
Free pick - Brewers (See daily video for your analysis on this game)
Note: I sat there watching the Lakers just have their way with Denver last night and the only thing I kept asking myself is where has that been?
Sure as hell didn't see that kind of effort at Houston in games 4 and 6 but we saw it last night.
That is what is so frustrating handicapping this Laker team. When they really want to play they do. When they don't, as a gambler, you get screwed.
And that was the case last night.
Flat out didn't see that coming and I am pretty confident I am not alone.
So once again, the Dr.Jekyl/Mr.Hyde Lakers figure out a way to beat me on a big play. Unreal.
Really got to step up now.
20 Dime Orlando Magic and 10 Dime Over Magic/Cavaliers - Time for the Magic step up as well. I say this with great urgency because this is just as much a do-or-die game for Orlando, as it is Cleveland. The Magic do not want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, so I'm pretty confident we're going to see their absolute best performance tonight. Of course that's what we always get when Orlando plays the Cavs, only this time there's a whole bunch at stake. Everything I'm going to say relates to this being a shootout, so consider the over with everything I'm telling you as well ...
Win tonight and big-bad LeBron go away. No more puppets in their nightmares, just the Kobe one awaiting them in the NBA Finals. Fact is, life would be much simpler with a win tonight. It would mean four days off, to prepare for Kobe and the Lakers, rather than another trip to Cleveland and a Monday night date with the Cavaliers at the Q.
Think about this, the Magic should already be in the NBA Finals, if not for that incomprehensible game-winning shot in Game 2 by King James with one second left in the game. That was the dagger. Fortunately, there's a good chance to recover from that wound. It's a much better wound than the one looming over their heads if they lose these last two games. Forget the three-game collapse, the Magic would have to head to the fishing pond or golf course for the summer, knowing they came within one second of playing for the championship for only the second time in franchise history.
I'm thinking it won't sit well. And I'm thinking the Magic will find that wherewithal they had in Game 6 up in Philly and in Game 7 up in Boston. Only this time they get to do it at home, with the chance to move on to the Finals. Hey, the road resume is impressive, this is a given. But why chance it.
Win the East in front of the home crowd. I've lived in Orlando before, I know what it's like inside that arena. I know all about the Magic, and I am telling you right now this is the most excitable crowd ever, even when Shaq was in town, there wasn't as much hope as there is with the current start wearing the emblazoned S on his chest.
It'll come down to the fourth quarter, again, and you're going to see the Magic will send an extra defender to guard LeBron, while trying to make him give up the ball. And let's not forget how tough the Magic are at defending on the perimeter. We all know Lebron can dish the rock, and so does Stan Van Gundy. Shut down those passing lanes!!! Defend, defend, defend, and create turnovers to create transitional buckets.
The first half is going to be where we get a slew of points. Things may slow up in the third quarter, and we'll stick to the pace in the fourth quarter. When it's all said and done, this one is going to fall in Orlando's favor and will be over the posted number. Magic win, 104-98.
5 Dime Tigers Run Line - To win on the run line you have to have effective pitching and a solid lineup. And when it comes to the Tigers, you don't get much more effective than Justin Verlander. The right-hander is 5-0 with a 0.85 ERA over his last six starts, and in facing an inconsistent Orioles team, I'm looking at a solid 4-run win in this one. Verlander is in off a Memorial-Day win against the Royals, who struck out eight times by his arm. He tossed seven scoreless innings and didn't walk a single batter. I didn't watch the game, but I did read a piece on him and saw the highlights ... kid is incredible with the control he has. He's getting batters to swing and miss from all angles, thanks to the command of his heater, and the right mix of junk at any point in the count. He's owned these Orioles, beating them three times without a loss in four career outings and has a stifling 1.29 ERA in 28 innings against them. Let's lay the run line and take Detroit.
5 Dime Cardinals Run Line - My early vote for Comeback Player of the Year has to be on Chris Carpenter. Talk about a feel-good story, the right-hander has returned twice in incredible shape from injury. He began the 2009 campaign with two spectacular starts after missing nearly all of the last two season with elbow and shoulder issues, and following another sting on the disabled list due to a left oblique strain, he tossed two more startling games. Carpenter, who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, will look to make it five starts without allowing an earned run, which pretty much wraps it up as to why we're playing this one on the run line. The veteran hurler is 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA in four career starts versus San Francisco, and I think we can count on him to neutralize this lineup tonight, while we can bank on the Cardinals to provide plenty of run support against the always abysmal, I-should-have-stayed-in-Oakland, overpaid Barry Zito. Cards roll here.Comment
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Re: 5-30-09
Scott Spreitzer's NBA PLAYOFF **HAMMER** GAME OF THE YEAR! *8-3, 73% Winners! - Saturday
I'm playing Orlando on Saturday. Those who have been with me in this series understand why I'm on the Magic. Just because Lebron changed game-five all by himself doesn't make up for the Cavs defeciencies in this matchup. The Magic still have a huge advantage with Turkoglu and Lewis and their 6'10 frames...and their ability to nail "threes"...and their ability to lose their defender with dribble-drives for shots of their own or to hit the open man. There is nothing Cleveland's current roster can do to stop those two players. The Cavs have to hope Lebron not only scores 40-plus again, but also have to hope the two key Orlando players mentioned above go absolutely ice-cold on their home floor. And again, like I said in an earlier write-up, once the Cavs' big-men leave their man to help out, Dwight Howard "busts out the cape." Orlando is simply a bad matchup for the Cavaliers. The Magic are 10-5 SU and 13-2 ATS the last 15 against Cleveland. And, they're 6-1 SU/ATS at home. The Magic are also serious-bank following a game where they allowed 105-points or more, going 12-4 ATS in that spot this season and a healthy, 40-19 ATS the last 59 times. They're also 31-14 ATS against teams that score more than 99 ppg. Look for the Magic to follow the Lakers' lead and wrap-up a berth in the Finals in game-six. I'm playing the Magic on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.Comment
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