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FerRringo 6-2-09
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Take #967 Boston (+125) over Detroit (7 p.m.)
Take #976 Minnesota (-165) over Cleveland (8 p.m.)
Take #976 Minnesota (-1.5, +125) over Cleveland (8 p.m.)
Take #953 San Francisco (-145) over Washington (7 p.m.)
Take #962 St. Louis (-115) over Cincinnati (8 p.m.)
Take #966 L.A. Dodgers (-115) over Arizona (10 p.m.)
Take #974 Tampa Bay (-160) over Kansas City (7 p.m.)
Take #978 Chicago White Sox (-145) over Oakland (8 p.m.)
Today's Totals
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7 p.m.)
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Boston at Detroit (7 p.m.)
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Oakland at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m.)
Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Colorado at Houston (8 p.m.)
Take ‘Under’ 8.0 L.A. Angels at Toronto (7 p.m.)
Take 'Under' 9.5 Cleveland at Minnesota (7 p.m.)
Jack Jones 06-02-09
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MLB | Jun 02 '09 (7:05p)
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers -125 at sia
15* on Detroit Tigers -125
The Tigers are the play at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The starting pitching match up here makes this a solid bet. Rick Porcello has been excellent for the Tigers, going 6-3 so far this season with a 3.48 ERA. In his last 3 starts, Porcello is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will have Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound. Dice-K has been terrible since being activated from the DL, the Red Sox losing in his last 3 starts while he has posted a 9.82 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. Boston is now just 12-16 on the road and the Tigers are 15-7 at home. Jump all over Detroit. -=
TOP PLAY =- MLB | Jun 02 '09 (10:10p)
Arizona D-Backs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -114 at 5dimes20*
No-Brainer on LA Dodgers -114
I'll take the Dodgers over the D-Backs with a couple of very good pitchers on the mound. Both Dan Haren for Arizona and Randy Wolf for LA have been solid all season, the biggest difference being that the D-Backs are just 5-5 in Haren's 10 starts this year, while the Dodgers have notched 7 wins in Randy Wolf's 11 starts. The reason for this is pretty simple, the Dodgers have scored 5.5 runs per game this season, while the Diamondbacks are scoring only 4.2. What makes this the best bet of the day is that, as bad as the Arizona offense is, it is even worse against left-handed starters where they are hitting just .213 as a team and scoring only 3.1 runs per game. The D-Back's record against lefties so far this season is 5-10. Add another loss to that column tonight.
peeiempee's SBR
Maddux
MLB picks
#956 - MLB - 3 units on Atlanta -118
#958 - MLB - 3 units on Florida +100
#960 - MLB - 3 units on Houston +126
#964 - MLB - 3 units on San Diego -158
#965 - MLB - 3 units on Arizona +106
#980 - MLB - 3 units on Seattle -136
Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick: 3 units: Under 5.5
The most obvious thing about this key game 3 is that it is a “make or break” game for Pens, just like last year’s finals, when they were also in an 0-2 “hole” after losing games one and two in “Hockey Town,” but at least made things interesting for awhile, with their 3-2 win in game 3. And while we would not be at all surprised with a similar result TY, and would not go against Pens in this “must win” (for them) game, how much sense does it make to lay this “heavy” 150 money line price tag (placed on Pens) against last year’s Stanley Cup champs, and probably this year’s as well? Very little, in our opinion. And the puck line? Give me a break – that’s not even worth considering for either team here, and was barely even worth mentioning.
So if we want to play this game, that leaves the total as the only remaining option, but fortunately (we hope) for us, we see taking the UNDER 5.5 goals here as a good option.
It’s unusual for a Stanley Cup finals match-up to have as much recent “history” as this one does, but that’s the situation here, with these two having also played six games in LY’s finals, won 4-2 by Detroit. And in the ten games played so far between them since last may, the under is 2-6-2, with an average of just 5.2 gpg, but both of the “pushes” were 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, and would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And looking at the 3 games played LY in Pitt, plus Detroit’s 3-0 regular season win there TY, the series under is 0-4 to the under, with an average of just 4 total gpg scored.
And if we look at the totals results for both teams games in their respective modes for this game (Pitt at home, and Wings away), based on playoff games this year (but excluding Wing’s easy first round wins over a Blue Jackets team that showed their total lack of playoff experience by easily getting ‘swept away’ by Wings) and in last year’s finals against each other, plus TY’s regular season Wings - Pens game at the Igloo, Detroit is 3-4-2 to the under on the road, with an average of just 5.0 total gpg, while Pens are 3-7-2 to the under at home, with an average of 5.55 total gpg, noting again that the two totals “pushes” for each team were the two 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, both of which would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And speaking of those two pushes at Pitt in LY’s finals, and the totals line, note that this could be our final “shot” at an under play in this series with a line of 5.5, as another under in game 3 would make it 3 straight unders for the series, which will likely cause the line makers to “chop” the total down to 5 (or if still 5.5, at least burden the under with heavy “juice”). In any event, combining and averaging the above #s, and counting the four Wings-Pens games at the Igloo just 4X, not 8X, gives the UNDER a significant 9-6-2 edge, and a projected 5.27 goals being scored in this game 3.
So based on all of the foregoing support, we’ll make this 3 unit pick on UNDER 5.5 goals, just like our game two win for 3 units on the under.
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