6-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Stu Finer


100 Dime Baseball #1
TEXAS RANGERS @ NY YANKEES 7:05 ET
Play On: RANGER + 140

FELDMAN IS 4 - 0 SO FAR THIS YEAR. HE IS 3 - 0 ON THE ROAD. HIS LAST 18 INNINGS HIS ERA 2.5. HE WILL SHUT DOWN THE YANKEES.
Play on the TEXAS RANGERS for a 100 Dime Selection.





100 Dime Baseball #2
L.A Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays 7:05 ET
Play on LA ANGELS - 130
WEAVER 4 - 2 ON THE YEAR, 4 -1 LIFE TIME AGAINST BLUE JAYS. HIS LAST 21 INNINGS ERA OF 2.14. HE WILL SHUT DOWN BLUE JAYS.
PLAY ON THE LA ANGELS AS A 100 DIME SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Beatyourbookie.com
100* Pirates

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Teddy Covers
Oakland under
NBA
Big Ticket Orlando + 6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Craig Davis
25 Dime MARINERS
10 Dime Rangers-Yankees OVER

SEATTLE MARINERS
I realize I'm putting a lot of faith into a young, relatively unestablished starting pitcher like Jason Vargas, but you can't ignore how well he's pitched since being called up a few weeks ago. In fact, I was talking to a big time Seattle Mariners fan just the other day and he was telling me that Vargas was the real deal and that he should have been in the starting rotation out of spring training. Then I did a little digging myself. Although he has been with three teams in three years, Vargas was seriously sought-after by the Mariners and they got their man. Vargas was solid in the spring and was used in the bullpen before getting called to become a starter.It wasn't until Carlos' Silva's elbow inflamation that Vargas got his shot, and I'm not expecting to see him demoted to the bullpen anytime soon. In his four starts since May 12th, Vargas has worked 23.2 innings, scattering 18 hits, 8 walks, and just five earned runs, earning one win and three no decisions. The good news for Vargas is... two of those three "NDs" resulted in wins for the Mariners and that's all we're asking for tonight. As you can see, he hasn't really struggled with control and allows less than one hit per inning pitched.Seattle hasn't been great at home this year, but they've been better at home than Baltimore has been on the road (8-16). Seattle has won four of their last six, they've won 4 of their last 5 in the third game of a three-game series and they've won 11 of their last 16 games vs. teams with a losing record. With Baltimore throwing little known Bradley Bergesen (4.94/1.48) and the fact that they are just 1-5 in his last six starts as an underdog, my money is on the Seattle Mariners at a very favorable price.


YANKEES/RANGERS OVER
I gave this out as a free play last night and it cashed in by the end of the fifth inning. If only I had released it as one of my dime plays... yes, I'm kicking myself. But I also know that my analysis was "spot on". Here we have two of the best home run hitting teams in Major League Baseball duking it out in the ballpark that has surrendered the most long balls of any park in the big leagues. Call it a fluke all you want, the point is... runs are NOT at a premium in the new Yankee Stadium as proved in last night's 12-3 Yankees win. One thing you can be sure of tonight... the Rangers will NOT be held to just three runs in tonight's contest.This offense is simply too talented, top to bottom, and it's not like they don't know how to score runs. A.J. Burnett had one bad inning but settled down after that and completely dominated. Tonight, it's up to Andy Pettitte to try and keep this offense in check. Though Pettitte has been good, he has also been known to "give it up" to the Texas Rangers. In his long career, only the Texas Rangers have been able to beat him up, and they've done it convincingly. In 20 career starts vs. the Rangers, Pettitte has allowed 77 earned runs while the Rangers are hitting a very comfortable .313 against him. No other team comes close.As for the Yankees, it doesn't really matter who the Rangers throw at them, they're going to score their runs (especially at home) and help push this total well over the posted number. Vegas isn't stupid, and that's why you consistently see their totals listed between 10 and 11.5 nearly every game. We'll be glad to take the over here tonight

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

C-Stars Sports


1000 Units Top Play Boston over Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Drew Gordon


1. 100,000? Chi. White Sox

2. 50,000? Twins

1. Chi. White Sox- Needless to say the White Sox are not happy with Tuesday's 5-0 shutout loss to a rookie making his Major League debut... And I expect them to respond accordingly in this one. Its not like the White Sox were playing poorly either, as they had won 4 straight prior to yesterday, and not only did they just fall asleep at the plate, but a costly error by Betemit cost them 3 runs. It was an all around ugly effort, but you better believe they bounce back tonight and here's why:

First, while there's no doubt Josh Outman was rock-solid in the month of May, I'm not totally convinced that continues. Besides a nice effort against Texas, he has the benefit of facing some relatively sorry teams, including the Diamondbacks, the Royals, the Rays, and the Mariners... So let's not get too carried away. He'll have to be perfect tonight at the Cell, as his sorry-ass offense is going to have major issues with Clayton Richard tonight.

Speaking of Clayton Richard, he's 2-1 with an outstanding 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts! While those also came against some relatively sorry clubs, he has the benefit of pitching at home tonight, where he's 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA on the season! Also, as mentioned above, its not like he's going against a powerhouse offense either, as the A's rank dead last in the Majors in team batting average at .239, and are even worse against southpaws, averaging 3.2 runs per game against them this season, batting just .210 in the process! That's music to Richard's ears, as his last home start saw him throw 6 scoreless against the Pirates for the win May 23rd!

Finally, besides the motivation of bouncing back after the shutout yesterday, the White Sox have a huge advantage in the bullpen, where they've posted a stellar 2.08 ERA over their last 3 games. Compare that to the Athletics 'pen, which has been a disaster, posting a ridiculous 9.23 ERA over the same 3-game span! In the end, look for the White Sox to bounce back strong here, as Outman may pitch well, but not well enough to offset Clayton Richard and the White Sox pen locking down the A's offense in this one.

Take the Chicago White Sox behind Richard over the Athletics and Outman as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Twins- I'll be the first to admit that CyYoung winner Cliff Lee is pitching great rigth now after starting the season poorly. BUT, before you go blindly jumping on the southpaws bandwagon, I want you to consider a couple things:

First, the Metrodome has been a house of horrors for lefties, as the Twins have gone an outstanding 25-6 there against southpaws over the last 2 seasons! That includes a PERFECT 8-0 against them this season under the lights... A trend that's very hard to ignore! Sure, Lee is one of the best southpaws out there, but he's going to one place where lefties go to die, and that doesn't exclude him, as one of his few losses in his Cy Young award winning season came at the Twins, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits over 7 innings July 6th!

Second, although he's just a rookie, Anthony Swarzak has been rock-solid thus far, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA this season. He faced two very strong offenses in his two starts this season, Milwaukee and Boston, and came away having proven his effectiveness. He not only has the benefit of never having been seen by the Indians, but he's also pitching for a roster spot, as Perkins returns in about a week or so, and another quality effort will go a LONG way in securing that spot.

Two other factors to consider are the Indians piss-poor road play, going 10-18 on the season, including just 8-16 against righties away. And also, the garbage play of the Indians bullpen, posting a 5.16 ERA on the season, and an even worse 5.71 ERA over their last 3 games. Opposite is true for the Twins, who've enjoyed great bullpen play: 3.83 ERA on the season and an outstanding 1.12 ERA over their last 3 games. As a final note, with Joe Mauer and this Twins offense crushing the ball of late, Lee and the sputtering Indians bullpen will be tested early and often, and the fact their batting .300 against lefties at home doesn't hurt either! Twins roll!

Take the Twins behind Swarzak over the Indians and Lee in this MLB match up

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Scott Rickenbach’s


6/3/2009
8:05:00 PM OVER 9.5 RUNS,HOUSTON ASTROS (Moehler)
-vs- Colorado Rockies (Marquis)
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Top Play OVER the total in Houston vs Colorado @ 8:05 PM ET: Moehler vs Marquis – In Game One of this series, on Monday, the teams combined for 18 hits but the Astros were the only ones doing some scoring as the Rockies scored just one run and left nine men on base. Last night, in Game Two, it was more of the same in terms of wasted opportunities. The teams combined for 20 hits (plus there were 11 walks in the game) and yet only five runs were scored as 24 men were left on base. It was an amazing display of offensive futility in key spots and the Rockies also turned three double plays in the game! The “break-through game” – in terms of offense – is going to occur on Wednesday! That’s because the pitching match-up is there for the offenses to not only get in position (again!) for big innings but, this time, actually cash in those opportunities! Jason Marquis of the Rockies has won three straight starts and pitched very well in those outings. However, prior to this solid run in three straight outings, Marquis got absolutely clobbered on May 13th. The culprit in that game was – you guessed it – the Astros. Houston absolutely pummeled Marquis three weeks ago and we expect more of the same tonight. Marquis has a stellar 2.97 ERA in day games this season but he’s compiled a 5.01 ERA in night games. Last year he was 7-3 in day games but just 4-6 at night so this disparity is nothing new for the sinkerballer. He also faced Houston three times last season and compiled a 5.09 ERA so, after already facing them this season, that makes this his 5th start against Houston in less than a season and a half. Not surprisingly, the Astros are getting familiar with Marquis and their low-ball hitters are feasting on this sinkerballer’s offerings. Neither one of these bullpens has been very solid so far this season plus they both had additional work to put in with last night’s extra-inning affair. That means any faltering from the starting pitchers tonight spells trouble and we feel Marquis won’t be the only one coming up short tonight. Brian Moehler gets the start for the Astros tonight and he’s coming off of a very strong outing against the Pirates. However, that game was at Pittsburgh and he now returns for a home start where he’s not fared well in two of his three starts so far this season. At Minute Maid Park Moehler is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and teams are hitting .379 against him! Facing Colorado is unlikely to help Moehler improve on his poor numbers at home. The Astros right-hander has compiled a 6.85 ERA and been hammered at a .316 clip by the Rockies in seven games, three starts, in his career. The Rockies will have a number of hitters in their lineup tonight who have enjoyed great success against Moehler and, with him coming off of his first complete game in nearly 9 years, don’t expect him to last long in this one! Moehler had previously lasted an average of about four innings per outing in his first six starts this season. Look for a return to “normal” for Moehler tonight and note that he’s just 7-8 with a 5.05 ERA and a .291 BAA in his career outings at Minute Maid Park. The runs are coming from both clubs tonight. Neither starter lasts long, both bullpens pitch true to their season-to-date subpar form, and the big hits finally come after so many wasted opportunities last night. Play OVER the total in Houston as a Top Play selection.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

asawins


6/3/2009
6:00:00 PM UNDER 8.5 RUNS,PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Ohlendorf)
-vs- New York Mets (Pelphrey)
ASA - The Pirates have won the first two games of this series and after a rough stretch in late April and early May Pittsburgh is again playing very respectable ball, inching closer to .500. The Pirates have scored four or fewer runs in seven of the last ten games and on the season Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 runs per game. The ‘under’ is 15-10 in home games for the Pirates at PNC Park and this has been one of the lower scoring stadiums in baseball, averaging just 8.2 runs per game with the eighth worst collective OPS and only 31 home runs in 25 games. The Mets and Pirates have each only hit 33 home runs on the season, tying for the second fewest in baseball.

Michael Pelfrey has emerged as a very solid starting option for the Mets. He struggled early in the season but has since made five straight quality starts and the ‘over’ has hit only once in his past seven outings. Pelfrey does not generate a lot of strikeouts but he rarely walks batters and the Mets have gone 7-2 in his starts. The Mets also have the best bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.10 and the meltdown in the opening game of this series was a rare occurrence.

Pittsburgh’s bullpen went through a rough stretch earlier in the season but appears to be healthy and back-on-track. Overall Pittsburgh pitching has been excellent this season, allowing just 4.2 runs per game. The ‘under’ is 10-3 in the last 13 Pittsburgh games and Ross Ohlendorf has emerged as a very effective starter for the Pirates. Ohlendorf has six quality starts this season and the ‘under’ is 7-3 in his outings. His ERA at home is just 3.72 with a WHIP of only 1.14. The Mets have not hit particularly well in recent weeks against right-handed pitching and several key hitters will be unavailable tonight. These two solid but unheralded starters should deliver solid results in a low-scoring game even with Tim McClelland behind the plate.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Vegas runner

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2* cubs
2* tigers
3* Minnesota and Cleveland over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-3-09

Seabass:

50* Bos -1.5
50* Tex under
50* LAA
20* KC

100* Steam NYM