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Re: 6-3-09
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
OVER tampa bay/kc
writeup to follow
SAN DIEGO
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Game Time: 6/3/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Padres Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. This line has fallen from it's opening number and I feel we're now getting excellent value with the Padres. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series but I expect them to have some real trouble scoring runs in this evening's finale. Chris Young goes for San Diego and he's a perfect 4-0 (Padres are 5-0) in five home starts. While averaging greater than six innings per start and going a minimum of six in each, Young allowed two earned runs or less in four of those five starts and three in the other. His home ERA for the season is 2.25. His WHIP is 1.00 and he's got 28 K's to go along with just nine walks. The Padres won those games by a combined score of 23-9, most recently a 7-2 winner over Lilly and the Cubs. Looking back further and we find that Young has allowed three earned runs or less in 15 straight home starts, dating back to September of 2007, and 19 of his last 20 here. He went a minimum of six innings in 17 of those 20 games. That includes a 1-0 shutout victory vs. Cole Hamels in his lone home start vs. the Phillies (on 7/19/07) during that stretch. That was Young's only career home start vs. the Phillies. However, he has also made a few starts at Philadelphia. While Young did get roughed up (SD still won) at Philadelphia back in April, the Padres are still 3-1 in his four starts against the Phillies, including 3-0 the most recent three. Happ has done a solid job since joining the starting rotation, recording a 3.97 ERA in two starts. However, that's still a very small sample size compared to the type of consistent success that Young has enjoyed here. With the Padres looking to avoid the sweep and the Phillies potentially looking ahead to the Dodgers and Mets - (they play at LA tomorrow and series is followed by one at NY; the Dodgers are currently the top team in the majors and the Mets are the Phillies' primary division rival) - I'm backing Young and the home team. *NL GOW -
Re: 6-3-09
Brandon Lang (verified)
Wednesday and Thursday ...
Wednesday
15 Dime Phillies
5 Dime Mets
5 Dime Giants
Free pick - Rangers (See daily video for your analysis on this game)
Thursday
40 Dime Lakers
15 Dime Lakers first half
Free pick - Over Magic/Lakers (Your analysis on this game will be available on video, for Thursday)
Written analysis on Thursday's basketball plays will be ready by 8 p.m. eastern on Wednesday night
NOTE: Be sure to write or print out Thursday's plays, as they will not be made available once this package expires Wednesday night. This is very important, as my Customer Service department may not be in position to send you the plays when you've been advised to write or print out Thursday's plays ahead of time. Thank you, B-Lang!
Wednesday
15 Dime Phillies - It's an easy question I pose with the same connotation every time ... but if the Phillies are going to blast the Padres on a night their ace takes the mound - albeit he was sick and all - what do you think happens against a hurler who struggled in one of his worst starts of the season against the Phillies back in April?
I am a big fan of Chris Young, absolutely. But the Phillies terrorized the right-hander back on April 17, shredding him for seven runs and nine hits over 3-2/3 innings. Amazingly, the Pads came back to win that game, 8-7, but that just tells me the defending champs will want to avenge that loss.
And if you haven't noticed, I've been all over J.A. Happ, missing out with one release because he was scratched from his start, and following him since. He's now 3-0 and makes his third start since Chan Ho Park was put in the bullpen. He finally notched his first victory as a starter this season, after limiting the Nationals to just three runs and three hits spanning 5-1/3 innings last Friday.
Bottom line with this team, it's hitting the hell out of the ball, and that should carry over to tonight. It hit three home runs off Padres relievers, and now hit five dongs in the series. The Phils have talltallied 33 runs and batted .315 in their last five games.
While Raul Ibanez cracked two long balls last night, the Flyin Hawaiian - Shane Victorino - is hitting .476 (10-for-21) with two doubles, a triple and six runs scored and Chase Utley is hitting .389 (7-for-18) with two doubles, a home run, six runs scored and five RBI during the run.
Take the road team in this one, as the Phils are the solid choice to wrap this sweep.
5 Dime Mets - Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I know the Mets have lost seven of their last nine on the road; but Mike Pelfrey is going to bail them out tonight and lead them to the win. He's been pitching good enough to win over his last four starts, going 0-1 with a 2.28 ERA; but he's received only four runs of support. So what makes tonight so different? Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf, who is looking to avoid a personal three-game losing streak after getting knocked around by the Astros last Friday, when he gave up four uns and eight hits over five innings in a 6-1 loss. The Mets are a much better team than we've seen lately, and though they're dinged up to all hell, they should be able to muster up enough offense in order to get past the lowly Pirates.
5 Dime Giants - Anybody know who Randy Johnson earned his first Major League victory with? Hint: the team doesn't even exist any longer. He won No. 1 playing for the Expos. Tonight he'll win No. 300 against the same franchise, just now in the nation's capital. All the honors this guy has - World Series ring, 5 Cys, two no-no's, a perfect game, he's second all-time with 4,843 strikeouts - I think it's time he notches this milestone win. The lanky fireballer has held two straight foes to one run and has a 2.99 ERA against this franchise over his entire career. That includes a May 11 win this season. Besides, Washington is a mess, as the organization fired pitching coach Randy St. Claire yesterday, it ranks last in the bigs with a 5.67 ERA and is mired in a 4-18 slump since May 10. Tonight is all about the Big Unit, so I'll play the Giants.
Thursday
40 Dime Lakers - Analysis on these plays by 8 p.m. eastern tonight.
15 Dime Lakers first half -Comment
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Re: 6-3-09
BIG AL
American League Over/Under Crusher
At 8:10 pm our selection is on the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox under the total. In a very short span of time, young lefthander Clayton Richard has gone from the status of rotation replacement (originally for Jose Contreras) to being the White Sox most consistent starter over his last three outings. In those three starts, going back to May 18, Richard has gone 2-0 with just three earned runs in 20 innings. His reward is another great assignment tonight at home against a very weak hitting A's squad. And Richard will actually be the senior starter in this matchup against Oakland and its lefthander, Josh Outman. Outman has also pitched very well for his team and like Richard, Outman is going to make it very hard for his team to remove him from the rotation if he continues to pitch this way. Is Outman a strikeout pitcher or a control pitcher? Hard to tell judging from his last two outings, as on May 24 he went 7 2/3 innings and despite only allowing a single run, he failed to record a single strikeout. But then he followed that up with a nine strikeout performance in his very next start, which lasted just 6 2/3 innings. Go figure. Of course that last start was against the Rangers, so that could go a long way toward explaining the nine Ks. Chicago is without its top home run producer, Carlos Quentin, who will be out until at least June 10 with a foot injury, and this has all the earmarks of a low-scoring game. Take the under.
MLB Roadkill Winner
At 10:05 pm our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Philadelphia Phillies. Think the Phillies have returned to their dominating form that won them the title in 2008? Perhaps we shouldn't read too much into the Phillies' recent success. Last year's World Series champs are 15-8 their last 23, which seems like a pretty decent streak. But upon closer inspection, if you take out the seven games (all wins) they've played against the Majors' worst team - the Washington Nationals - the Phils are actually 8-8 during this time. Tonight they play the second of a three - game set on the west coast against the Padres, a team that has been playing very well and had a surprising .500 record heading into this series. Big righthander Chris Young gets the start for the Padres and he has been one of their most consistent starters not named Peavy since he joined them in 2006. He has three quality starts in his his last three trips to the hill, and seems to do very well as long as he's not facing Colorado. Young has been particularly strong when he's pitched at home and has only given up three runs at Petco Park once this season in five starts there. He gets to face a young lefthander in J.A. Happ who is probably better suited to the bullpen, but is getting a chance to start thanks to the most recent health issues of Brett Myers. Speaking of the Nationals, Happ is 3-0 this season but all three of his wins (two in relief) have come against Washington. Take the Padres.Comment
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