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Wunderdog (1 of 3 premium NBA picks, not the 5*)
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Orlando +6 (-110)
The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavaliers, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mismatches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skill set and confidence to stay close with Los Angeles in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as an underdog. Want evidence of the Lakers’ propensity to under perform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. Take Orlando plus the points here.
Game: Orlando at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Orlando +6 (-110)
The Magic did the unthinkable in beating the Cavaliers, the top team in the league all season and nearly unbeatable at home, in six games. In that series the Magic had many mismatch advantages and to their credit, they took advantage of it. We called a series win for Orlando (and banked at +250 on that) after game one after seeing the mismatches and noting that the Magic have been atop my NBA power rankings for a while now. While they won't have the mismatches in this series, they have the skill set and confidence to stay close with Los Angeles in game one. The Lakers play best when their backs are against the wall. When the pressure is off, they tend to leave their "A" game in the locker room. They lost to Houston at home in game one of the second round and followed that up with an ATS loss to Denver in game one at home (a game they really should have lost straight-up). The Lakers put together back-to-back excellent games vs. Denver to close them out but prior to that, this team had really underperformed in the playoffs. Can they win this game by more than three baskets? I don't think they do. While they don't have the matchup advantages they did vs. Cleveland, this Magic team still won both games vs. the Lakers twice in the regular season so we know they are not, at a minimum, at a big matchup disadvantage. Orlando is now 31-18 ATS this season vs. winning teams. That includes a 25-10 ATS mark vs. the elite teams that outscore opponents by 3+ points per game. They are also 16-4 ATS on the road this season vs. teams that average 103+ points per game. They are 14-6 ATS this season vs. up-tempo teams like the Lakers (those averaging 83+ shots per game) and 18-7 ATS as an underdog. Want evidence of the Lakers’ propensity to under perform when the pressure is off? They are just 7-18 ATS this season at home after having won three of their last four games. Orlando should keep this one close enough to cover. Take Orlando plus the points here.
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