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40 Dime- Lakers
15 Dime-Lakers first half
40 Dime- Lakers
15 Dime-Lakers first half
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Re: 6-4-09
BURNS NBA
Basketball (NBA)
LAKERS
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 6/4/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers Reason: I'm laying the points with the LA LAKERS. The Magic deserve plenty of credit for their great run through the Eastern Conference. I expect them to find things significantly more difficult in this round though. They had real trouble with a mediocre (at best) Philadelphia team in the first round and then were fortunate to catch the Celtics without their best player. They were admittedly impressive against Cleveland but I feel the Lakers will be a much tougher matchup. The Cavs had Lebron. The Lakers have Kobe. Call that a wash. (Personally, at this stage of their careers, I'd choose to have Kobe leading my team.) In my opinion, Kobe has a much better supporting cast than Lebron did though - not to mention a much better coach. Additionally, the fact that the Lakers have been here while the Magic have not should not be overlooked. The Lakers know how critical Both teams have been tested. The Magic have had three straight hard-fought matchups while the Lakers are off back to back very difficult ones of their own. After fighting so hard, both teams should enjoy having a few days off. That said, I feel that the rest should be more beneficial to the Lakers. For starters, Kobe had logged a ton of minutes and had been played very physically. Although he still played at a very high level, he had acknowledged being exhausted. He's the most important player for the Lakers (obviously) and having him fresh is important. Additionally, the Lakers have a coaching edge. While many don't like him, I feel that Van Gundy has done a fine job and is a decent coach. That said, Phil Jackson is one of the best of all-time and he should be able to make more effective use of the time off. Note that the Lakers were 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Conversely, the Magic were just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. The fact that the Magic won here during the regular season and the fact that they stole Game 1 at both Boston and Cleveland will surely be noticed by Jackson's Lakers. They're 23-13-1 ATS the last few seasons when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss and I expect them to take care of business here. *Main Event
UNDER lakers/magic
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 6/4/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on LA and Orlando to finish UNDER the number. The Magic saw their final three games (and five of six) against the Cleveland all finish on or above the total. While that's helped to provide us with a generous total for tonight's game, it shouldn't be reason for concern. For starters, the Magic have had plenty of time to 'cool off.' This is also an entirely different opponent. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go 8-1 the last nine times that they were coming off three or more consecutive games which landed on or above the total. Also, note that the majority of games from Orlando's previous two matchups (Boston and Philly) finished below the total. As for the Lakers, while they did see their final game vs. Denver eclipse the total, they've still seen the UNDER go a profitable 8-2 their last 10 games and 12-4 their last 16. LA home games have been particularly profitable for 'under' bettors. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the last five games here and 7-1 the last eight. Looking back a bit further and we find that 15 of the last 20 Laker home games have stayed below the total. It's also worth noting that the Lakers, who are currently favored by six points at most shops, have seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Lakers are still bitter about losing in last year's Finals and the theme this year was getting "tougher" and better defensively. Looking at last year's Finals and we find that Game 1 (played at Boston) finished with only 186 points. The three games played at LA averaged just 185.67 points, none of them finishing with more than 201. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting. *TOW -
Re: 6-4-09
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
FLORIDA
Game: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Florida Marlins Game Time: 6/4/2009 7:10:00 PM Prediction: Florida Marlins Reason: I'm laying the price with FLORIDA. The first three games of this series have all been decided by a minimum of three runs. The Marlins won the first two by scores of 7-4 and 10-3 and the Brewers bounced back with a 9-6 victory yesterday. I expect the Marlins, who are now 12-3 the last 15 times that they hosted the Brewers, to have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Johnson goes for the home team and that's good news for Florida fans. That's because the Marlins are a profitable 13-4 his last 17 starts, most recently a 7-3 win over the Mets. Averaging nearly seven innings each time he takes the mound, Johnson has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts this season and that includes eight straight. He's 4-1 (Marlins are 8-3) with a stellar 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His home numbers are even better, as he's got an outstanding 1.66 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in six starts here, averaging more than seven innings per start. He has 42 K's (and only 8 walks) in 43 1/3 home innings. Overall, Bush has been solid for the Brewers so far this season. That said, his numbers (3-1, 4.38 ERA) don't come close to comparing to what Johnson brings to the table. Additionally, although he's been respectable so far this season, he's never had much success on the road, since coming over to the Brewers. Most importantly, Bush has struggled in his last two starts, allowing nine runs in 10 2/3 innings for a poor 7.59 ERA. Over that 2-game stretch, he's allowed 12 hits, four of them home runs, and issued seven walks. When considering that Johnson has allowed only one home run at home all year long, Bush's recent stats look that much worse. These pitchers faced each other at Milwaukee a few weeks ago. Johnson had to leave early with a minor shoulder problem and Bush came away with the victory. Johnson, healthy now, still has better career stats vs. Milwaukee than Bush does against Florida. Note that Bush got rocked for six runs (2 home runs) in six inning in his last start here, which came on 5/7/08. I expect Johnson to outpitch Bush, getting some payback from last month and leading the Marlins to the series victory. *annihilatorComment
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