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Re: 6-5-09
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
NATIONALS
Game: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Game Time: 6/5/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Washington Nationals Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Many will see the Mets taking on the Nationals and they'll quickly decide that the Mets are the play. After all, everyone knows that New York is a much 'better' team. They'll see the Mets at an attractive price and will be quick to back them. That said, I believe that the Nationals will prove to be the 'correct' side this evening. For starters, while the perception is that New York is really good and Washington is really bad, note that the Mets' road record (11-15) isn't all that much better than Washington's (8-18) home mark. Additionally, keep in mind that the Mets are currently dealing with numerous injury problems. They've lost three straight and four of five. Looking at the offensive stats of these teams and many would be surprised to find out that the Nationals actually score more runs. They're averaging 4.8 overall and 4.9 at home. The Mets are averaging 4.7 overall and 4.6 on the road. Martis goes for the Nats and while he's had some trouble recently, he's shown that he is capable of pitching well. That's more than Redding, who goes for New York today, has been able to say, so far this season. Martis, who threw a no-hitter in the World Baseball Classic, has made five home starts. He's gone 3-0 (Nats are 4-1) with a respectable 4.05 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP. He's averaged a healthy 6 2/3 innings in those five starts, going a minimum of six complete in all five of them. On the other hand, the Mets are 0-3 when Redding has been on the mound. Dating back to last season, his teams are now 0-6 his last six starts. Redding is 0-2 with a terrible 9.20 ERA and 1.909 WHIP in this season's three starts, averaging less than five innings per start. Sure, Redding, who was with Washington last season, would love to pitch well against his former team. However, "wanting" and "doing" are different. Listening to Redding doesn't inspire much confidence. After his latest loss he was quoted as saying: " Even as professionals, there are days when you go out there and you are a little intimidated, because you know you don't have your quality stuff. You're pitching scared in a way, just trying to do the best you can." Yes, the Nats only have eight home wins, which is admittedly pretty bad. However, half of them have come when Martis has been on the mound. While the Mets will surely be a popular selection, I'm backing the home team. *"Contrarian" Annihilator
UNDER mariners/twins
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners Game Time: 6/5/2009 10:10:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Minnesota and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. This line has climbed from 7.5 up to eight. While I understand the reason (Liriano) for the move, I feel that we're now being provided with terrific line value. Hernandez goes for the Mariners and he's been in top form of late. Indeed, he has a 0.61 ERA in his last two starts. He's had 16 K's to just two walks in those starts. For the season, he has a solid 3.41 ERA. He also has a 2.98 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in eight starts vs. the Twins, five of which stayed below the total. He's allowed one earned run or less in three of his four home starts vs. the Twins. Liriano admittedly has struggled. However, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire still has confidence in him, saying: "I'm definitely not ready to send (Liriano) to the minor leagues and I'm not ready to send him to the bullpen right now..." He feels Liriano will bounce back and I also expect him to do so. Keep in mind that this guy was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA a few years ago - so he's definitely got the ability. Liriano has made two starts here at Seattle, both of them finished below the total with identical 4-2 scores. He'll face a Seattle lineup which is averaging a mere 3.6 runs (.248 average) here at home. While the Mariners have had trouble scoring runs at home, the Twins have had trouble doing so on the road. That's led to a poor road record but it's also led to the UNDER going 14-6-2 in their 22 road games. I look for those stats to improve as this evening's final score proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip
WHITE SOX
Game: Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox Game Time: 6/5/2009 8:10:00 PM Prediction: Chicago White Sox Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. After losing the final three games of their 4-game set vs. Oakland, including a 7-0 shutout loss yesterday, the White Sox should be happy to see the A's leave town. Now, they'll face a Cleveland team which has lost five of seven and which is just 11-19 on the road. Wednesday's loss notwithstanding, the Sox are a profitable 57-39 the last 96 times that they were coming off a shutout loss. They're also 8-2 the last 10 times that they hosted the Indians. I expect them to bounce back from yesterday's setback with a much-needed victory this evening. While the Indians currently have better overall offensive stats, the Sox have scored slightly more runs recently. Even after getting blanked yesterday, they're still averaging just slightly more than four runs per game through their last eight - that's definitely not great but it is better than what the Indians have managed recently, as they're averaging less than four per game through their last eight. More importantly, I expect the Sox to have the advantage on the mound. Danks gets the call and he's got a solid 3.32 ERA in four home starts. Pavano goes for the Tribe and while he's admittedly been much better recently, he's still got a poor 5.79 ERA on the road for the season. Note that the Chicago relievers have much better overall stats than the Cleveland relievers. Danks will face Cleveland for the first time this season. On the other hand, Chicago batters will have the advantage of having just seen Pavano a few weeks ago - that should be especially helpful for the Sox, as they previously hadn't seen Pavano in a number of years (since 2004) and they've been a team which has struggled against pitchers which they haven't seen before and/or haven't seen in a long time. Looking at Pavano's last start (5/13 at Clev) vs. Chicago and we find that while he did earn the victory, he didn't exactly fool the White Sox hitters - Chicago had 10 hits and scored four runs against him in 6 1/3 innings. Pavano hasn't started here at Chicago since back in 2002 - his lone start here resulted in a 13-2 loss which saw him give up seven runs (5 earned) in just 3 1/3 innings. In addition to their recent dominance of the Indians here at Chicago, the Sox are also a profitable 94-71 (+26.4) their last 165 games against division opponents overall. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *AL Central GOMComment
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