9-14-08

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:31 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Power Sweep

4* Carolina 31-17
3* Houston 28-13
2* Tampa 27-6
2* New Orleans 24-17

3* Titians U39
3* Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:32 AM

Re: 9-14-08

CKO Confidential Kick-Off

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

10 MIAMI at *Arizona

Late Score Forecast:

MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17

(Sunday, September 14)

Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:32 AM

Re: 9-14-08

2008-09-12 RON RAYMOND'S NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Tennessee Titans /Cincinnati Bengals Over 37 -110

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:32 AM

Re: 9-14-08

CHICAGO SPORTS CONNECTION

NFC NORTH Play Of The Week (2)
Both games 1:00 EDT
************************************************** *******
DETROIT +3 vs Packers
The Packers come off a big win for Rodgers...they are on a short week ...also a sandwich game (Dallas next week on Sunday night).
And Detroit is a hungry team at home ...off and embarssing loss against ATL.
************************************************** *******
CAROLINA -3 vs Bears
It will be tough for the Bears to win two straight on the road.
This line would be 6 or 7 if they didn't beat the Colts on Sunday night.
The Bears went from a team predicted to win 6 games...to a team that will start the season 2-0 on the road ?
I doubt it.
************************************************** *******

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:33 AM

Re: 9-14-08

King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet194 CIN / 193 TEN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 36.5 or less

1:05pm ET / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 42 or less

1:05pm ET / Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or less

1:05pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 41.5 or less

4:05pm ET / Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or higher

Let's lay out all applicable OU Systems that we queried in regards to the week two NFL schedule. We'll start first with a handful of solid OU RUSHING Systems.

ALL four of the teams involved in King?s 2 UNDERS are off gaudy Game One RUSHING totals. Chic:183 yds... Caro:142 yds... Atl: 318 yds... TB: 146 yds. And all four teams are therefore active this week in some variation of a solid ?UNDER? rushing System.
GAME TWO road teams are 0-5 O/U since 1999 off a SU win w/ 140+ rushing yds against an opponent ALSO off a game w/140+ rushing yds. Both CHICAGO and ATLANTA qualify.

What really jumps out at you from last week is Atlanta?s 42 rushes for 318 frickin yards in the win over the Lions. Only 11 NFL teams have rushed for 300+ yards in this decade. And in their very next game, UNDERDOGS (or ?pick em) have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.

In a hot OVER run over the last 2 seasons, one of today's teams applies in an OU Rushing 'futility' System.
In ALL games, Underdogs of 7 > points playing off a SU loss in which they rushed for < 50 yards (RAMS) are 12-1 O/U in the last 2 years.

Speaking of the Rams, their woeful week one loss of 35-3 to the Eagles has them active in multiple OU Systems.
Since 2000 in ALL games, NFL teams off a SU road loss of 35 > points are 24-9 O/U... and a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 3 years. If the OU line is 40 > points, the results are 12-1 O/U since 2000 (RAMS).
In the last 12 months, NFL home teams playing off a SU loss in which they allowed 300+ passing yards are 17-3 O/U (RAMS).
In the last 2 years ALL home dogs are 19-4 O/U off a SU loss in which they allowed 4 > sacks (RAMS).

Week Two teams playing off a week one SU DIVISION win are prime "play ON" candidates for OVER players. The results are particularly good when taking on non-division competition in week two. That would have us looking at HIGH-scoring results for the GIANTS, SAINTS, and TITANS.
This System is based on the fact that the two teams that are playing each other are actually BOTH off a division game:
11-1 O/U since 2003 in ALL games: Non-division teams playing off a SU home DIVISION WIN versus an opponent off a SU road DIVISION loss... with an OU line of 44 < points. NEW ORLEANS is a qualifier, based on their home win vs the Bucs last week and Washington's road loss to the Giants last week. Your other qualifier this week is TENNESSEE. They beat the Jags last week at home while Cincy lost on the road against the Ravens.

GAME TWO road teams who are off a BIG division win of 8 > points are 8-2 O/U since 1996... and a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last 10 years (GIANTS).

"Tight" lines for teams off a dog win have resulted in high-scoring games.
In the last 4 years, NFL favs or dogs of 3 < points are 11-1 O/U when playing off a SU win as a dog of 4 < points (TITANS).
In the last 10 years, NFL Underdogs playing off a DOUBLE DIGIT ATS division win (TITANS) aew 12-2 O/U.
In the last 2 years, NFL favorites of 8 < points are 12-1 O/U after a road game in which they had 26 < minutes in offensive time of possession (BENGALS).

Let's examine what happens when teams come into Game Two off a REALLY big game one DOG win (like Carolina and Chicago).
GAME TWO teams off a DD SU win as a dog of +4 > pts (PANTHERS) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 10 years.

SEPTEMBER home favs playing off a SU win as a dog of 7+ pts (BEARS) are a PERFECT 0-5 O/U since 2000.

Last week?s final score in the Carolina / San Diego game was 26-24. It was one of only TWO games in which both teams scored 20 or more points. The only other qualifier was the Saints vs Bucs (24-20 final score). Here?s what the database spit out:
GAME TWO home teams who scored AND allowed 20+ are 1-11 O/U since 2002... and 0-4 O/U off a SU win (PANTHERS + BUCS).

What's the best (or most profitable) OU Line range for week two?
If you're looking for the Best OVER results, check this out:
NFL WEEK TWO games in which the OU line is 40 to 43 points have gone 16-5 O/U since the 2001 season... and 10-2 O/U in NON-division games. Your ONLY two qualifiers in this OU line range on Sunday are: RAMS vs GIANTS... and SAINTS vs REDSKINS. Another reason that we must play BOTH of them.

GAME TWO home favs of < 7 pts with an OU line if < 38 pts (BEARS / BUCS/ CHIEFS) are 0-6-1 O/U in the last 3 years.

The defending Super Bowl champs looked pretty sharp in their opening game on Thursday night against the Redskins. Based on that game, BOTH teams qualify in solid OVER Systems.
In the last 10 years, NFL teams off a SU DIVISION win on a THURSDAY are 12-4-1 O/U.... and 7-1-1 O/U on the road (GIANTS).
In the last 10 years, NFL non-division teams off a SU THURSDAY road loss are 8-2 O/U... including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U at home (REDSKINS).

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:33 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Greg Roberts

Titans +1Over Bengals

Saints Pick 'Em Over Redskins

Dolphins +6.5 Over Cardinals

Jets -1.5 Over Patriots

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:33 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Dave M@linsky

GAME: San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Sep 14, 2008 4:15PM
PICK: San Diego Chargers +1

4* SAN DIEGO over DENVER

Some of the biggest over-reactions in any calendar sports year come after the first week of NFL play. It is the only sport left where the betting “public” is still a significant factor in the setting of the lines, and that puts some outstanding situations into our laps. This is one of them, now that we can take the Chargers at +1.

San Diego buried Denver over eight quarters LY. The two games were won by a combined 64-6, with the scoreboard a pretty accurate reflection of what was happening on the field – the Chargers won the total offense by 297 yards. And with San Diego only scoring seven fourth quarter points, we can see that both games could have been even worse. And 2007 was not really anything new – the previous season brought a pair of wins by a total of 36 points, so the Chargers own a 4-0 advantage with Philip Rivers as the starting QB in this series, winning by an average of 23.5 per game. But now here come the Week #1 results in which these two teams fell a combined 35.5 off of the oddsmakers projections, and that leads to the usual leaping to the wrong conclusions.

The Bronco problem in this matchup LY, and in general, was a soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. So what did we see in Monday’s 41-14 rout of Oakland? A soft defensive front that could be controlled at the point of attack. Raider RB’s Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden rambled for 143 yards at 5.3 per carry, but they could not run the ball more because their own defense took them out of the game. We rarely find teams in a favorite’s role that have such a negative matchup in that key area of the game.

Meanwhile there was nothing to be particularly alarmed about in that San Diego loss to Carolina. LaDanian Tomlinson ran for 97 yards at 4.6 per carry and Philip Rivers threw three touchdown passes without an interception. The defense was a disappointment, but that helps from a mental standpoint here. It creates a “backs to the wall” setting from a talented unit, and now that they know that Shawne Merriman is gone for the campaign they can bring the proper focus to make the adjustments. The DL of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky and Luis Castillo has dominated the Bronco OL in those recent routs, and with the latter still trying to build chemistry with Casey Wiegmann at center (Tom Nalen will miss at least another week) and rookie Ryan Clady at RT, we can confidently back the Chargers to control the trenches on both sides of the ball.

We don’t find this price range often when one side controls the line of scrimmage the way that we can project this flow to be.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:34 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Erin Rynning
20* stlouis +9
reg. cleveland +6

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:34 AM

Re: 9-14-08

HSW early: 5*NO; 3tm parlay: NO, NE AND denv.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:34 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Tommy Rider | NFL Side
triple-dime bet203 NYG -8.5 (-110) BetUS vs 204 STL
Analysis: INSIDE THE HUDDLE PLAY - I've talked to a lot of NFL people Saturday night and the team they tell me is in the biggest trouble right now is the Rams. Scott Linehan has lost total control of the team and their offensive and defensive lines are the worst units in the NFL. Actually, I grade each position of every team and the Rams offensive line has the lowest rating of any positional unit in the NFL. That's not good when facing the Giants blitzing defense. This may look like a trap or a sucker bet but the thing is: The Rams are the worst team in football right now. They made the Eagles look like world beaters last week and the Philly offense simply isn't that good. Marc Bulger will be lucky to make it out of this game alive, as the Giants win big. ***3 UNIT PLAY***

Sun, 09/14/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Total
double-dime bet196 MIN / 195 IND Over 43.0 BetUS
Analysis: This is my classic "Play an over when one team runs the ball well and their opponent can't stop the run, while the other team passes the ball well and their opponent can't stop the pass." This is a rather simple theory and it's been a strong moneymaker for me over the years but so far in CFB it hasn't been cashing. So now I'll give it a shot in the pros. I'm playing the odds here and saying Peyton Manning won't have two terrible games in a row. I'm not saying the Colts will win but I do expect Manning to be much sharper than he was against the Bears. On the other side, I expect Adrian Peterson to eat up the Colts defense. I actually thought the Vikings ditched the run a little too soon last week. I don't think that will happen here. This should be a fun game to watch and I do see some points being scored by the offenses. **2 UNIT PLAY**

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:35 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Stan Sharp | NFL Side
triple-dime bet198 WAS 1.0 (-110) Bodog vs 197 NOS
Analysis: Stan has Bet Washington as Stan believes that Washington will win this game by 7-10 points. Washington has had a few extra days to prepare for this game and will exploit a very weak defense. TAKE WAHINGTON as STAN'S EARLY SEASON SHOCKER OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 08:35 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Matty O'Shea | NFL Total
double-dime bet204 STL / 203 NYG Over 41.5 BetUS
Analysis: Let's take advantage of a low number here in what should be a much higher-scoring game than what the oddsmakers think based on Week 1 performances. The OVER ended up going 5-1 in the last six home games for the Rams last season, and they should be able to score at least a couple touchdowns against the Giants after being held to a mere field goal at Philadelphia last week. New York is also more than capable of putting up 30+ points here against a terrible St. Louis defense. While I believe the point spread is right where it should be with the Giants favored by nearly 10 points, the total is way off. Bet the OVER as my Double Dime NFL Total Play O' the Week.

Sun, 09/14/08 - 1:00 PMMatty O'Shea | NFL Side
dime bet202 CAR -3.0 (-120) BetUS vs 201 CHI
Analysis: Like last week with the Saints, the oddsmakers are keeping this game at a key number and making you lay the juice. Our New Orleans play turned out to be a winner, and I see no reason not to back another quality home team in the Panthers here. The Bears are coming off a serious statement game against the Colts last Sunday night and are a bit overvalued in this spot despite the fact that Steve Smith is not playing for Carolina due to a suspension. Smith has killed Chicago in the past, and his presence on the field would be worth at least a couple more points. Instead, former Bears WR Muhsin Muhammad will have the opportunity to burn his former team. I believe the running of Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be the difference though and see the Panthers winning this one by at least a touchdown. That's why I'm betting Carolina as my Single Dime NFL Favorite Play O' the Day.

Sun, 09/14/08 - 3:35 PMMatty O'Shea | MLB Money Line
dime bet929 SEA (+150)Bodog vs 930 ANA
Analysis: The Mariners had to watch Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez break the single-season saves record on Saturday night and should be able to take advantage of a team that has accomplished just about everything it can before the end of the season. K-Rod's record was certainly a cause for celebration for the home team, and that could come back to haunt LA during the day on Sunday. Seattle's Felix Hernandez is 3-3 when pitching under the sun this season with a 2.66 ERA while Ervin Santana's ERA under the same scenario for the Angels is an inflated 4.65. I expect the Mariners to be extra motivated in this spot as they also look to avoid a four-game sweep, so bet them as my Single Dime AL Underdog Play O' the Day.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 09:19 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Sean Michaels
Sunday's Pick
25 DIME PLAY

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Note: This line is a solid -3 here in Vegas. But if it rises to -3 1/2, make sure you buy the 1/2 point and take it down to -3 to insure you get a push if Carolina only wins by three.

Now, I often have been asked my opinion regarding by down off -3. If you're playing a lot of games daily, over the long term it probably is not a good investment because the price you're paying will accumulate for all the wagers you're making for insurance that will rarely be needed or used.

On the other hand, if you're like me, a guy who only plays one game a day, and not every day at that, buying the 1/2 point down off -3 is a small price to pay every now and then. Thus, if you have -3 on Carolina today, buy the half-point down to 2 1/2 to make sure you win should the Panthers prevail only by a field goal.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-14-2008, 09:19 AM

Re: 9-14-08

Red Zone Sports

Carolina -3 GAME @ 1PM WE'RE ON THE PANTHERS
We note that Chicago is not going to have nearly as easy a time this week, as they hit Indy in a really bad spot with their injuries. We find Carolina's preference is to pound away at its opponent on the ground behind a rebuilt line that possesses plenty of size & strength. The two-back tandem of DeAngelo Williams (86 rushing yards, 1 reception) and Jonathan Stewart (53 rushing yards worked well last week). We also note that Chicago is not nearly as good as they looked. Forte's was just average vs the Colts. Carolina at home this week is solid value. & we will lay the 3
49'ers vs Seahawks Over 38 Game @ 4pm....

The Red Zone will look for the Offenses to get back on track this week We 're banking on 49er's QB O'Sullivan to rack up yards this week, off a 15- of-20 pass attempts.
O'Sullivan played with Martz in Detroit last year. Expect the offense to still go through running back Frank Gore, who rushed for 96 yards last week -- including a 41-yard TD run -- while also catching four passes for 55 yards.
Former Cowboys running back Julius Jones made his Seahawk debut versus Buffalo and rushed for 45 yards on 13 carries. This baby fly's over the Total of 38

9-14-08

9-14-08

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