Tweet
Re: 6-11-09
Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- LAKERS
(If the line is +2 1/2, buy the half point up to +3.
If your line is +3, buy it up to +3 1/2)
25 Dime ---- RANGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must list Millwood as starting pitcher)
5 Dime ---- BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must List Gallardo as starting pitcher)
LAKERS
(Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +2 1/2 and also if it's +3)
I can't really add anything to the massive analysis I had on the Lakers in Game 3 of the series. I still believe the Lakers are the better overall team and if Kobe Bryant could have hit his free throws, we might be talking about a Lakers 3-0 lead instead of a 2-1 advantage.Kobe personally blames himself for the Game 3 loss for a few reasons... all of which I don't see happening in Game 4 tonight. First, he blames himself for the missed free throws. Honestly, there's no excuse for him to miss as many free throws as he did in Game 3, and I read where he spent much of Wednesday shooting free throws on both ends of the floor. Like him or hate him, he's a hard worker.Secondly, turnovers. His crucial fourth quarter turnover to Michael Petrius could have been the back breaker. The Lakers had a chance to take the lead, but instead sent the Magic to the line on the other end. He must, and will, clean up the errors for the Lakers to grab a 3-1 lead.Third, points in the second half. Kobe simply wore down, scoring just ten points in the second half of Tuesday's game, likely due in large part to his performance in the second half and overtime of Game 2 in L.A. Bryant looked sluggish down the stretch and could have cost his team the game. You can bet, without a doubt, he will "will" this team to a win in Game 4.As I mentioned in my analysis Tuesday, the Lakers (aside from Game 3) have really started to step up their defensive intensity. In the first two games of this series, L.A. held the Magic to less than 89 points in regulation and they still didn't allow Orlando to score triple digits despite giving them five extra minutes during overtime. Orlando isn't invincible at home, and the road team (and underdog) when these two meet is covering ATS nearly 80% of the time. Play the Lakers PLUS tonight.
TEXAS RANGERS (on the run line) (must list Kevin Millwood) --- Are you kidding me? Am I to believe the Blue Jays have actually gone into Texas and taken the first two games of this series? Well, that's exactly what has happened and the buck stops here. Kevin Millwood won't let his team drop another game at home, especially against a team they have OWNED over the years at home. Toronto pitched a shutout last night, beating the Rangers 9-0. The night before saw Toronto beat Scott Feldman 6-3 (yes, I was on the Rangers that night too). Tonight, there's no chance Texas allows Toronto to get another win on their home turf.Kevin Millwood is sizzling right now, allowing just five earned runs in his last three starts (18 2/3 innings). For the season, his record might only be 5-4, but his ERA is 2.96 and his WHIP is 1.26, not to mention the fact he hasn't suffered a loss since May 21st, a 4-3 loss at Detroit. You see, it's actually beneficial for us that Millwood is pitching at home. For the season, his home ERA is 2.59 in eight games, with a 3-1 W/L record. For his career, Millwood is a better pitcher at home too with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 in 170 games started. In his last start, Millwood had his best game of the year, blanking the Boston Red Sox for 7 innings, allowing just seven hits in a 5-1 Texas win.
Toronto counters with Ricky Romero... a lefty who is about to face a powerful right-handed hitting lineup. Romero has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts and knowing the Rangers have only scored three runs in two games vs. Toronto in this series, he could be run out of the game by the 4th inning. Texas still dominates at home despite the losses, especially when listed as a favorite. Toronto, conversely, is still not a good road team and has dropped 9 of their last 11 away from Toronto. Play the Rangers on the run line as your top rated baseball play of the day.
BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Gallardo as starting pitcher) --- Sorry Rockies fans, but it's just not happening today. There's NO WAY the Rockies will sweep the Brewers in Miller Park, especially not with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. The guy has been absolute money much of the year, touting a 2.84 season ERA, winning 6 games while dropping just two, but the Brewers are 8-3 in his 11 games started so far. When he pitches, they win. His season WHIP is 1.08 which is absolutely incredible, but it's even better in his last three starts (0.98). Oh, and get this... Gallardo has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and we're talking about 23+ innings of work. Folks, that's less than a 0.50 ERA.Colorado counters with Aaron Cook. The problem with Cook is that he's too erratic, sometimes dominating and other times getting dominated. So I checked it out... and it appears the guilty culprit is his walk total. When Cook has command of his fastball, he's very good.... like his last outing where he nearly blanked the St. Louis Cardinals. When he doesn't have command, he starts to struggle, putting base runners on via walks and then a few timely hits. The next thing you know, Cook is down 3-0, and if that happens today, Colorado has very little chance of mounting a comeback. Bottom line here is that Gallardo is on fire and Cook is average...
Gallardo dominates again today as the Brewers win going away.
Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- LAKERS
(If the line is +2 1/2, buy the half point up to +3.
If your line is +3, buy it up to +3 1/2)
25 Dime ---- RANGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must list Millwood as starting pitcher)
5 Dime ---- BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must List Gallardo as starting pitcher)
LAKERS
(Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +2 1/2 and also if it's +3)
I can't really add anything to the massive analysis I had on the Lakers in Game 3 of the series. I still believe the Lakers are the better overall team and if Kobe Bryant could have hit his free throws, we might be talking about a Lakers 3-0 lead instead of a 2-1 advantage.Kobe personally blames himself for the Game 3 loss for a few reasons... all of which I don't see happening in Game 4 tonight. First, he blames himself for the missed free throws. Honestly, there's no excuse for him to miss as many free throws as he did in Game 3, and I read where he spent much of Wednesday shooting free throws on both ends of the floor. Like him or hate him, he's a hard worker.Secondly, turnovers. His crucial fourth quarter turnover to Michael Petrius could have been the back breaker. The Lakers had a chance to take the lead, but instead sent the Magic to the line on the other end. He must, and will, clean up the errors for the Lakers to grab a 3-1 lead.Third, points in the second half. Kobe simply wore down, scoring just ten points in the second half of Tuesday's game, likely due in large part to his performance in the second half and overtime of Game 2 in L.A. Bryant looked sluggish down the stretch and could have cost his team the game. You can bet, without a doubt, he will "will" this team to a win in Game 4.As I mentioned in my analysis Tuesday, the Lakers (aside from Game 3) have really started to step up their defensive intensity. In the first two games of this series, L.A. held the Magic to less than 89 points in regulation and they still didn't allow Orlando to score triple digits despite giving them five extra minutes during overtime. Orlando isn't invincible at home, and the road team (and underdog) when these two meet is covering ATS nearly 80% of the time. Play the Lakers PLUS tonight.
TEXAS RANGERS (on the run line) (must list Kevin Millwood) --- Are you kidding me? Am I to believe the Blue Jays have actually gone into Texas and taken the first two games of this series? Well, that's exactly what has happened and the buck stops here. Kevin Millwood won't let his team drop another game at home, especially against a team they have OWNED over the years at home. Toronto pitched a shutout last night, beating the Rangers 9-0. The night before saw Toronto beat Scott Feldman 6-3 (yes, I was on the Rangers that night too). Tonight, there's no chance Texas allows Toronto to get another win on their home turf.Kevin Millwood is sizzling right now, allowing just five earned runs in his last three starts (18 2/3 innings). For the season, his record might only be 5-4, but his ERA is 2.96 and his WHIP is 1.26, not to mention the fact he hasn't suffered a loss since May 21st, a 4-3 loss at Detroit. You see, it's actually beneficial for us that Millwood is pitching at home. For the season, his home ERA is 2.59 in eight games, with a 3-1 W/L record. For his career, Millwood is a better pitcher at home too with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 in 170 games started. In his last start, Millwood had his best game of the year, blanking the Boston Red Sox for 7 innings, allowing just seven hits in a 5-1 Texas win.
Toronto counters with Ricky Romero... a lefty who is about to face a powerful right-handed hitting lineup. Romero has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts and knowing the Rangers have only scored three runs in two games vs. Toronto in this series, he could be run out of the game by the 4th inning. Texas still dominates at home despite the losses, especially when listed as a favorite. Toronto, conversely, is still not a good road team and has dropped 9 of their last 11 away from Toronto. Play the Rangers on the run line as your top rated baseball play of the day.
BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Gallardo as starting pitcher) --- Sorry Rockies fans, but it's just not happening today. There's NO WAY the Rockies will sweep the Brewers in Miller Park, especially not with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. The guy has been absolute money much of the year, touting a 2.84 season ERA, winning 6 games while dropping just two, but the Brewers are 8-3 in his 11 games started so far. When he pitches, they win. His season WHIP is 1.08 which is absolutely incredible, but it's even better in his last three starts (0.98). Oh, and get this... Gallardo has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and we're talking about 23+ innings of work. Folks, that's less than a 0.50 ERA.Colorado counters with Aaron Cook. The problem with Cook is that he's too erratic, sometimes dominating and other times getting dominated. So I checked it out... and it appears the guilty culprit is his walk total. When Cook has command of his fastball, he's very good.... like his last outing where he nearly blanked the St. Louis Cardinals. When he doesn't have command, he starts to struggle, putting base runners on via walks and then a few timely hits. The next thing you know, Cook is down 3-0, and if that happens today, Colorado has very little chance of mounting a comeback. Bottom line here is that Gallardo is on fire and Cook is average...
Gallardo dominates again today as the Brewers win going away.
Comment