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Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers Jun 10 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Grade: Push (0)
Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS. The Rangers haven't just lost the first two games of this four game series; they've been routed by a combined score of 15 to 3. That's not typically what we've come to expect from the Rangers here at home. Not this season, at least. Texas came into this series with an 18-9 mark at home while the Blue Jays came into this series with an 11-17 mark on the road. That also should provide some additional motivation for the Rangers, as no team likes to be beaten up in front of their home fans. Naturally, they'd love nothing more than to serve up some payback by delivering a "blowout" win of their own. Casey Janssen and Brian Tallet of Toronto managed to shut down the Rangers vaunted offense at home but I believe that it will be a different story with Ricky Romero on the mound. Romero is a rookie southpaw and the "mistake pitches" he's made recently are reflective of his lack of big league experience. Indeed, he's allowed seven homers in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has an ugly 7.16 ERA and an awful 1.837 WHIP. Romero is coming off a quality start (3 runs in seven innings) in his last outing. However, he still gave up two home runs and that was vs. Kansas City. Even without Hamilton in the lineup and even thought they've struggled so far this series, the Rangers at home represent a much tougher offense. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Rangers have fared very well vs. southpaw starters. Even with yesterday's loss, they're a profitable 13-8 vs. left-handers. Note that Romero has only made two road starts and his most recent one (at Baltimore) was a disaster, where he was battered for 11 hits and 5 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings. After his last start he was quoted as saying: "...I still have some work to do. I haven't gotten a feel for that changeup that I had earlier in the year." Romero is likely to be no match for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. After a rigorous off-season training program, Millwood is off to a fantastic start this season. He's in better shape than he's been in for years and his 5-4 record is nowhere indicative of how well he's throwing. He's got a 2.96 ERA on the season, is averaging better than seven innings per start and is holding opponents to a .247 batting average. Last time out, Millwood dominated the Red Sox, at Fenway. He went seven innings, allowing just one unearned run. He didn't receive a decision in his last home start but was also very sharp, allowing five hits and two runs through six complete. Overall, he's 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA here at home. While this price is typically a little higher than I prefer to lay, I feel that the situation, venue and current form of the starters make the current line actually quite reasonable. The Blue Jays are a money-burning 12-27 their last 39 as a road dog of +125 and +150. Toronto is also just 10-17 on the road when the total is a 10.5 or 10. Conversely, the Rangers are an impressive 14-6 at home when the total is listed at 10.5 or 10. I expect the revenge-minded Rangers to bounce back and improve to 5-2 at home this season with Millwood on the mound and 14-7 his L21 home starts overall. *"Blowout" GOM
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers Jun 10 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Texas Rangers
Grade: Push (0)
Reason: I'm laying the price with TEXAS. The Rangers haven't just lost the first two games of this four game series; they've been routed by a combined score of 15 to 3. That's not typically what we've come to expect from the Rangers here at home. Not this season, at least. Texas came into this series with an 18-9 mark at home while the Blue Jays came into this series with an 11-17 mark on the road. That also should provide some additional motivation for the Rangers, as no team likes to be beaten up in front of their home fans. Naturally, they'd love nothing more than to serve up some payback by delivering a "blowout" win of their own. Casey Janssen and Brian Tallet of Toronto managed to shut down the Rangers vaunted offense at home but I believe that it will be a different story with Ricky Romero on the mound. Romero is a rookie southpaw and the "mistake pitches" he's made recently are reflective of his lack of big league experience. Indeed, he's allowed seven homers in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has an ugly 7.16 ERA and an awful 1.837 WHIP. Romero is coming off a quality start (3 runs in seven innings) in his last outing. However, he still gave up two home runs and that was vs. Kansas City. Even without Hamilton in the lineup and even thought they've struggled so far this series, the Rangers at home represent a much tougher offense. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Rangers have fared very well vs. southpaw starters. Even with yesterday's loss, they're a profitable 13-8 vs. left-handers. Note that Romero has only made two road starts and his most recent one (at Baltimore) was a disaster, where he was battered for 11 hits and 5 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings. After his last start he was quoted as saying: "...I still have some work to do. I haven't gotten a feel for that changeup that I had earlier in the year." Romero is likely to be no match for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. After a rigorous off-season training program, Millwood is off to a fantastic start this season. He's in better shape than he's been in for years and his 5-4 record is nowhere indicative of how well he's throwing. He's got a 2.96 ERA on the season, is averaging better than seven innings per start and is holding opponents to a .247 batting average. Last time out, Millwood dominated the Red Sox, at Fenway. He went seven innings, allowing just one unearned run. He didn't receive a decision in his last home start but was also very sharp, allowing five hits and two runs through six complete. Overall, he's 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA here at home. While this price is typically a little higher than I prefer to lay, I feel that the situation, venue and current form of the starters make the current line actually quite reasonable. The Blue Jays are a money-burning 12-27 their last 39 as a road dog of +125 and +150. Toronto is also just 10-17 on the road when the total is a 10.5 or 10. Conversely, the Rangers are an impressive 14-6 at home when the total is listed at 10.5 or 10. I expect the revenge-minded Rangers to bounce back and improve to 5-2 at home this season with Millwood on the mound and 14-7 his L21 home starts overall. *"Blowout" GOM
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