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Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Texas Rangers - Saturday June 13, 2009 8:05 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 9.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)
4 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 between the LA Dodgers @ Texas Rangers (Saturday @ 8pm est).
The Dodgers look to bounce-back from 0-6 loss to the Rangers yesterday. They will send Wolf to the mound who has been hit hard in his last two contests and who really needs a bounce-back today. What stinks for him is the fact Arlington is a hitter's ballpark but having said that, I have been founding the under in Texas for quite some time. In particular, when Feldman starts, I have been really going after the Under. Feldman has pitched in 9 straight Unders and we have been on at least 5 of them that I can think off my head. The young man from Hawaii is 5-1 and has dropped his era down to 4.01. Note, he had a non-quality start and I expect him to bounce-back today as I expect Wolf to bounce-back from back to back non-quality outings. So, you have two pitchers who are on bounce-back and although I think the Rangers are likely to roll once again, let's just ride the Under wave in Scott Feldman games to potentially make it 10 straight Unders for Feldman. The Under is 9-0 overall for Feldman of late and the Under is 9-2 in the Dodger's last 11 interleague games.
These guys have been pretty good but probably a new service... I'm doing their trial right now....
Here is their write up:
Although neither the average UFC fan nor his opponent would be able to pick Cain Velasquez out of a lineup; make no mistake about it, he is the new rising star in the fighting world. This guy is an absolute freak. His professional fighting career has been characterized by fast TKOs (only one of his five pro fights went past the first round) and even more notably by opponents simply refusing to fight him. Velasquez's reputation as an absolute monster in sparring sessions (he simply does not get tired... ever) has caused him consistent problems when trying to find an opponent to even get into the ring with him. Opponents have backed out of fights with him and in several cases they actually showed up to the weigh in, took one look at him then backed out. This guy has been avoided like the plague by most fighters because of his reputation in the fighting community. He is believed by many to be one of the next great champions of the sport- some say he may become the greatest ever.
Cheick Congo took this fight on 3 weeks notice when Velasquez's original opponent Heath Herring withdrew due to "illness". Congo is a big guy who is popular among average UFC fans due to his imposing stature but he will be totally outclassed here. Congo had only three weeks to prepare for a fight against the greatest talent he will have ever faced in UFC competition.
Congo weighed in at 230 pounds vs Velasquez's 239. Although he has a 3 inch height disadvantage, Velasquez will likely neutralize Congo's reach by his superior wrestling skills (he was a two time All American wrestler at Arizona State). At American Kickboxing Academy where Velasquez trains he consistently spars with fighters that are 6'3" and 6'4" sometimes taking on one opponent right after the other. There is no one on the UFC circuit that works harder than this guy, we promise. He has never been more prepared for a fight in his career and already has his eyes on the belt of current heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar.
We are exploiting the fact that Velasquez is relatively unknown to the betting public. This line should be -450 or higher but due to Congo's impressive appearance and Velasquez's lack of exposure we are getting a gift at -190. Oh, and on top of all of this, Congo could be in even graver danger as Velsquez has a little extra motivation going into this fight: “Me and my girlfriend just had a baby girl four weeks ago. We named her Coral Love Velasquez That’s the most exciting thing for me right now. It has been an awesome experience. I’m going to dedicate this fight to her.”
On strictly value alone, the Mets are a play here. Of course that doesn’t mean they’ll win but damn, this is a big time tag on a strong team. Yesterday’s pitching match-up looked a lot more favorable for the Yanks than this one and the Yanks needed a whole lot of luck and a ninth inning error to overcome an 8-7 deficit, not to mention a 6-3 deficit earlier on. The Mets are a dangerous team, just like the Yanks and Andy Pettitte, although he can be very tough, has thrown a ton of pitches this season and it’ll catch up to him at some point. In fact, his pitch-count over his last several games reads like this; 104, 104, 87, 114, 105, 106 and 115. Pettitte has allowed four runs or more in five of his last eight games and his ERA at home is 5.40 to go along with a .316 BAA. He could definitely get hit hard here. For the Mets, we’ll see a young pitcher with major-league experience. Fernando Nieve has thrown 109 pitches in the bigs and his numbers are not bad at all. He’s started 11 games, he’s appeared in 52 and in those 109 innings, he’s allowed just 105 hits while striking out 84. He’s been up here for a few games and saw action in relief on June 6 in Washington in which he went two full innings and allowed one hit, no runs and struck out two. Nieves has been around for a while and he’s one of those guys that could fill in very nicely for an injured pitcher for a start or two. He’s been up and down for years and won’t be intimidated by this scenario. These long-time minor leaguers that have been around for a while have seen it all and it’s not like he doesn’t have talent. Anyway, the Yanks are overpriced again and the tag here makes the risk a worthy one. Play: NY Mets +1.88 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.01 over BALTIMORE PINNACLE
I’m going to break my rule of playing AL teams only in inter-league play because the Orioles are absolutely not worthy of being the chalk right now. Whether they’re playing at home or on the road, the Orioles are not scoring runs and that’s an understatement. In fact, over its last 12 games, they’ve scored more than three times in a game just once. They’ve been held to two runs or fewer in eight of those last 12. They have two wins over that stretch and one of the wins was a 1-0 victory over Seattle. They’ve never seen today’s Braves starter and that can’t be beneficial to them in any way. The Braves came in here last night, scored two in the first and it was over. They cruised to an easy 7-2 victory and chances are they’ll win again over this crumbling host. Play: Atlanta +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.30 over TORONTO PINNACLE
The Jays looked completely lifeless last night in a 7-2 loss and this one goes at 1:00 PM. If last night is any indication then there’s a good chance that they’ll be lethargic again today. Ricky Nolasco was having a horrible year indeed until he faced the Jays last night and they made him look very good when in fact, he’s not. Nolasco struck out nine Jays. Today, the Jays will have to deal with Sean West, a guy that throws extremely hard and has wicked stuff. West is a big lefty that has made four big-league starts. In those starts he’s 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA. In 24.1 innings he’s allowed just 14 hits while striking out 15 and the opposition has hit a puny .159 against him. Casey Janssen has also made four starts but his ERA is 5.24 and at home in two starts his ERA is 6.55. The Blue Jays looked awful last night and they’re very vulnerable to another defeat today. Play: Florida +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.00 over PITTSBURGH PINNACLE
The Pirates held true to form last night with another inter-league loss and have now dropped 41 of its last 56 inter-league games. The fact that they’re favored here is all the incentive needed to pull the trigger on the Tigers. Zach Duke has impressive numbers this season but a lot of luck has figured into that. He’s struck out just five batters over his last 20 innings and now has just 44 k’s in 85 innings of work. He puts the ball in play and he keeps it down but this isn’t the Cubbies, Atlanta, San Diego or Cincinnati he’ll be facing. No, this is the Tigers, a team that has won six of eight and that has a 14-5 record against left-handed starters. Offensively, the Tigers are far superior and when I don’t have to lay anything with the Tigers over the Buccos, you can pencil me in and I make no exception here. Play: Detroit +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
2 units each
Take #904 Toronto (-135) over Florida (1 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take #928 L.A. Angels (-1.5, +100) over San Diego (9 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take #923 L.A. Dodgers (+105) over Texas (8 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take #914 Tampa Bay (-155) over Washington (6 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Today's Totals
Take ‘Over’ 9.5 L.A. Dodgers at Texas (8 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Boston at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Minnesota at Chicago Cubs (1 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Florida at Toronto (1 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Bastardo)
Let's take a look at the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Red Sox are 37-24 with an away record of 16-16, but are on a 5 game winning streak on the road and are beating good teams in that stretch. They beat the Phillies last night in extra innings, swept the Tigers in Detroit and took the last game from the Blue Jays on May 31st. The Phillies meanwhile are dominant on the road, but are playing downright terrible at home. Their home record is 12-15 and 5 of those wins are against the worst team in baseball, the Washington Nationals. Matsuzaka has struggled this season going 1-4 with a 7.33 era, but I look for him to step up tonight. When everyone around you is playing well, you step up your game and that's what he'll do tonight. Bastardo is 2-0 with a 2.45 era, but hasn't seen a lineup like the Red Sox. He is only in his 3rd start of his Major League career and I don't see him beating a hot Red Sox team that is hot on the road. Jump all over the Red Sox tonight and watch them take game 2 in Philly tonight!
Boston Red Sox (+101) 20 Dime Interleague "Sharp" Game of the Month
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