6-13-09

**Mr. IWS** · 06-13-2009, 12:09 PM

Re: 6-13-09

BEN BURNS

Florida Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - Jun 13, 2009 1:05 PM EDT
Premium Play
Play Title ***EARLY BLOWOUT*** Burns' PERSONAL FAV. (5-0 L5!)
Play Selected Money Line: -138
I'm laying the price with TORONTO. After losing with ace Roy Halladay on the mound yesterday , I expect a big "bounce back" from the Blue Jays early this afternoon. Casey Janssen has quietly been throwing very well for Toronto. Also, the Jays lineup is dominated by solid right-handed sticks which should help vs. the rookie Marlins southpaw which they'll be facing. Left-hander Sean West hasn’t even turned 23 yet (that happens on Monday) and this should be the perfect spot for him to falter. West is coming off of a very impressive outing but that eight inning shutout effort came at home and he threw 104 pitches in his longest effort so far in the bigs. West did go seven innings at New York against the Mets in his final May start but his other two starts have lasted a combined 9 1/3 innings. Having alternated shaky and good outings so far in his rookie season, I believe that "start #5" has trouble written all over it. Toronto is hitting .304 versus left-handers this season. The Jays are also hitting .286 in day games. The Blue Jays are 21-11 at home this season. Before winning last night’s game, the Marlins had gone just 3-4 and they had scored only 25 runs in those seven games. They'll certainly have their hands full with Janssen this afternoon. Janssen had great stuff at Texas on Monday and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is not an easy park to pitch in. Although he’s struggled at home so far this season, Janssen's career numbers show that he’s been stronger at home than on the road. His career numbers also show that he’s fared very well in day games. In fact, Janssen has a 1.38 ERA and a .180 BAA with a 0.81 WHIP in 45 2/3 innings in career day games! While Toronto is 16-8 in day games this season, the Marlins are just 9-11. Looking back further and we find the Jays at a highly profitable 76-54 (+17.2) in afternoon games the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also a lucrative 37-20 when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect the Jays to bounce right back and quickly resume their home and daytime dominance, earning a rare victory vs. the "pesky" Marlins. *Personal Favorite

**Mr. IWS** · 06-13-2009, 12:24 PM

Re: 6-13-09

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (12-4 since May 1)
My 15* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. The Tigers beat the Pirates last night 3-1, their sixth win in eight games. Rick Porcello was both the pitching and hitting star, giving up just one run and six hits over seven innings, while going 2-for-3 at the plate with two RBI. Armando Galarraga will take the mound tonight for Detroit and a quick check of the Tigers' stat sheet shows he'll be batting for the first time this year. However, the Tigers aren't concerned with that part of his game. Galarraga was impressive last year, going 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA in 30 appearances, including 28 starts (Tigers were 18-10). He opened the 2009 season like he was set to improve on his 2008 numbers, going 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four starts (team was 3-1). However, he's winless over his last eight starts, going 0-6 with a 7.06 ERA (team is 2-6). Pittsburgh was trying to win its third straight last night and the 3-1 loss also means that the Pirates are just 1-3 in interleague play, having scored only five runs. That being said, the Pirates are a respectable 15-12 at home this year and why shouldn't they be able to hit Galarraga? Taking the mound for Pittsburgh is Zach Duke, who finally seems to have "found himself." Duke was so impressive back in 2005, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. However, these last three years (2006-08), he was a pathetic 18-37 (4.82), as the Pirates went 31-53 in all of his starts. Breaking those numbers down shows that his real problems were on the road (Pirates were 10-33 in those starts), while he was fine here in Pittsburgh (team was 21-20). He's pitched well in 2009, going 6-4 with a 3.07 ERA in 12 starts (team is 6-6). Again, note his home numbers, which show he's 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA in six starts. You can't say this too often but expect the Pirates to roll in this one. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* Pit Pirates.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (5-0 all-sports run the L2 days!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the SF Giants at 10:05 ET. I rode Tim Lincecum to a 3-0 win last night with the Giants and will take 300-game winner Randy Johnson tonight, against Oakland's Josh Outman. Outman was part of a very young and inexperienced starting rotation that A's manager Bob Geren trotted out at the beginning of the 2009 season. Dallas Braden was the team's Opening Day starter, followed by Trevor Cahill, Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson and Josh Outman. That group owned a combined 63 major league starts! The A's can now add Vin Mazzaro to that group, as the A's have 10 pitchers less than 30 years old and five starters 25 or younger. Outman made just six appearances last year (four starts), working less than 30 innings. He opened this year with two poor starts (6.48 ERA) and was then sent to the bullpen. However, he didn't stay long and has now made eight consecutive starts. He's been very good, going 4-0 with a 2.92 ERA (tem is 6-2). However, like Mazzaro found out last night, it's not easy winning on the road when pitching for the A's. Oakland owns the AL's lowest team BA (.238) and last night managed just seven hits without scoring against Tim Lincecum. The A's are 11-18 on the road, averaging a measly 4.0 RPG, while on average, the team has allowed 5.55 RPG way from home. The A's will face Randy Johnson tonight and while he's the five-time Cy Young winner is past his prime, he's had quite a four-game stretch recently. He's allowed just five ERs over his last four starts (22.1 innings), winning his 299th and 300th games in the process while striking out 19 batters. Three of those five ERs came in his last outing, when he came back on just three days rest (following getting his 300th career win) this past Monday at Florida, losing 4-0 (5 IP / 7 hits / 3 ERs). At this age, Johnson was asking way too much of himself but tonight, he's back on normal rest. The Giants have been very tough here at AT&T Park, as with last night's win, they are 19-9, while allowing opponents just 3.43 RPG. The A's had all sorts of troubles with lefties on the road last year (10-18, while averaging 3.14 RPG) and while they have done better this year in that situation (are 5-5 vs lefties on the road), they are just 8-13 (3.5 RPG) against lefties in all situations in 2009. Is there any reason that Outman (five career wins) should be pick'em vs Randy Johnson (300 career wins) when the A's are 11-18 on the road and the Giants 19-9 at home. You may remember Lincecum and the Giants were favored by minus-$1.50 (or more) last night. Oddsmaker's Error 15* SF Giants.

Good Luck...Larry

6-13-09

6-13-09

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