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Mill---------------------Mets
Insiders---------------Blue Jays
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Re: 6-14-09
Ness' 15* Situational Mismatch-MLB (88-63 in MLB '09!)
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Atl Braves at 1:35 ET. The Orioles won a season-high five in a row from May 25-29 but yesterday's 8-4 win made them just 3-10 since that winning streak and they haven't won back-to-back games since that time. Derek Lowe goes for the Braves today and the free agent has surely lived up to his end of the bargain. He's 7-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 13 starts. He's been extremely consistent for Atlanta, allowing three ERs or less in 11 of his 13 starts, including his last six. He's gone seven-plus innings in all but one of his last six outings (lasted 6.2 in the one he didn't), posting a 2.93 ERA. It should also be noted that pitching against the Orioles is nothing new for a man who pitched for the Red Sox, as he's 8-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 lifetime starts against Baltimore. He'll be opposed by Baltimore rookie Brad Bergesen. Bergesen is 2-0 over his last three starts, allowing just four ERs in 23 innings (1.57 ERA). However, he's just 3-2 with a 4.04 ERA on the season (10 starts), with the Orioles going 5-5. It should also be noted that like the team as a whole (see below), Bergesen has not done well in day games, allowing 24 hits in 15.2 innings over three starts (1-2), posting a 6.89 ERA. Now, I've never been a big fan of how teams have played on a particular day but the Orioles have taken their abysmal play on Sundays to new levels of ineptitude. The Orioles lost at Washington 8-5 back on May 24, then lost 3-0 at home to Detroit on May 31. The losing continued into June, as they lost 3-0 last Sunday at Oakland. So what else is new? They've now lost EIGHT of nine Sunday games in 2009, getting outscored 48-27. Going back into the 2008 season, they've lost a quite amazing 29 of their last 32 Sunday games! Is Baltimore's play on Sundays just a pure coincidence? Here's why it's not. Most Sunday games are in the day and the Orioles are 3-14 in day games this year, after going 12-29 in day games last year (by the way, the Orioles were 36-60 in day games in the 2006 and 2007 seasons, as well!). Sunday games also often represent the final game of a series between teams and the Orioles are a miserable 3-17 in series finales this year. Situational Mismatch 15* Atl Braves.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* Playoff Punisher-NBA Finals Game 5 (6-0-1 run)
My 20* Playoff Punisher is on the Orl Magic at 8:00 ET. The Magic will have had a couple of days to recover from Thursday's Game 4 loss, before taking the court for their final home game of the season (win or lose). If the Magic can win, the series will return to LA for Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary). The Magic are faced with any number of near-impossible 'mountains to climb' in this year's NBA Finals. After falling behind 0-1, the Magic knew that Phil Jackson-led teams were a perfect 43-0 all-time (31-0 in seven-game series) after winning Game 1 of a series and that the Lakers had won 16 consecutive best-of-seven series after taking a 1-0 series lead. After losing Game 2 in OT (Lee missed a 'bunny' at the buzzer in regulation), the Magic faced the fact that the Lakers were 38-1 all-time after taking a 2-0 series lead in a best-of-seven-series. Now, after another "blown opportunity" in Game 4 (Howard's two FT misses with 11.1 seconds remaining in regulation and the team's 15 FT misses for the game), the Magic's second overtime loss of the Finals leaves them down 3-1. Orlando now is up against yet another overwhelming fact, that in NBA Finals history, all 29 teams which have taken 3-1 leads have gone on to win the title. The Lakers will surely want to close out the Magic in this game and while the Lakers did just that in a Game 6 at Denver in the Western Conference finals, that's really the only time this postseason in which the Lakers have won when they really didn't "have to." The Lakers lost Game 3 in Utah (up 2-0) in the first round, lost Games 4 and 6 at Houston in the second round (up 2-1 and 3-2, respectively) and then lost Game 2 (up 1-0) in LA and Game 4 (up 2-1) at Denver in the Western Conference finals. In contrast, the Lakers are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS this postseason, following a loss. While the Lakers may give lip service to wanting to "end things" in Game 5, I believe we will not see LA's best effort in this game. As for Orlando, while some of Van Gundy's decisions are open for criticism and some of the Magic players have "come up wanting" in "crunch time," one can't dismiss the strides this team has made in 2009. Clinching their first round series (sans Howard, who sat out with a suspension) by winning 114-99 (as five-point dogs) at Philly, was impressive. So was winning Game 1 at Boston in the second round and then making a great comeback in Game 6 of that series to 'stay alive,' before CRUSHING the Celtics at Boston, 101-82 in Game 7. It was on to Cleveland a few days later and despite falling behind 33-19 at the end of the first quarter (and by more than 20 points during the second quarter), the Magic rallied to win yet another Game 1 on the road, 107-106. The Magic would eventually eliminate LeBron and the Cavs in six games, averaging 103.7 PPG in the six-games series, after the Cavs had opened the 2009 postseason with eight straight wins (7-0-1 ATS), having held opponents to 78.1 PPG. History says the Magic won't come back to win this series but that doesn't mean they can't win here. While the Zig Zag theory is a modest 35-30-4 ATS this postseason, it is an excellent 9-3-1 ATS since the beginning of the conference finals and the Game 5 play is on the Magic. Let's also note that SU and ATS winners have been almost synonymous since the start of the second round, with the 39 SU winners going 33-3-3 ATS (that's 91.7 percent!). Yes, the Magic are small favorites (minus-2 1/2 or three) and there is a small danger of them winning but not covering but it's worth the risk. In fact, I see them winning Game 5 and I don't expect it to be close. Playoff Punisher 20* Orl Magic.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch-MLB (7-0 all sport run the L3 days)
My 15* Pitching Mismatch is on the Cin Reds at 2:10 ET. Kansas City was an AL Central-best 18-11 entering May 8 but the Royals would go on to drop 23 of their next 30 games. They lost nine series and split another in that stretch. Then came this weekend and the Royals have already guaranteed their first series win in more than a month by beating the Reds 4-1 on Friday and 7-4 on Saturday. They go for the sweep today but that won't be easy. Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds has to be mentioned among any talk of the NL's best pitchers this season. He's long ago put last year's 9-14, 4.87 ERA mark behind him (Reds were 12-19 in his starts). Cueto is 6-3 with a 2.33 ERA in 12 starts in '09, with the Reds going 8-4. He's allowed just 61 hits in 81 innings and has been much better on the road, than at home. He's made five home starts, going 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA (Reds are 2-3) but 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA in seven road starts (Reds are 6-1). His 2.33 ERA ranks in the NL's top three, as does his opponents' batting average (.210). Cueto has lasted at least seven innings in nine of his last 10 games with eight quality starts in that stretch. It should also be noted that he's 1-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his four career interleague starts. Yes, KC has won the first two games but the Royals haven't swept a three-game series this season, with the team's last sweep coming back in September of 2008. Brian Bannister will take the mound for the Royals and the 2009 season seems to playing out exactly as it did in 2008 for this young right-hander. Bannister opened the 2008 season 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA but then went 6-16 (6.82 ERA) over his last 29 starts (Royals were 10-19). It's deja vu all over again in 2009. He started 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his first four starts of '09 but over his last six, is 1-3 with a 7.18 ERA (team is 2-4). No sweep today for KC, as it's Cueto over Bannister in a knockout! Pitching Mismatch 15* Cin Reds.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-MLB (9-1 in MLB '09!)
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Twins entered their series with the Cubs this weekend just 9-20 on the road this year and with only two wins in nine all-time road games at Wrigley Field. However, they won 7-4 Friday afternoon and then 2-0 on Saturday. Maybe that shouldn't be all that much of a surprise, as with 125 interleague wins, the Twins are one of only three teams with 120 or more. It should also be noted that the Cubs are in a funk, especially offensively. Saturday's shutout loss makes it four losses in a row, with the team batting .174 during its slide. Indicative of the Cubs' woes was yesterday's ninth inning. Chicago got its first two batters on base but with no outs, couldn't get even one of them home against Minnesota closer Joe Nathan. The Cubs have totaled just six runs in their four-game losing streak. While I've yet to produce anything to "back the Cubs" in Sunday's game, I'm just getting started. The case begins with Minnesota's starter today, Scott Baker. He went 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA last year in 28 starts (team was 17-11) and he was expected to be the team's 'ace' in 2009. While Baker has looked like the ace that Minnesota expected him to be in his past two starts (15 IP / 5 ERs / 3.00 ERA), let's not get carried away. Baker didn't make his first start until mid-April and his first four were just awful (9.15 ERA). Yes, he's been better in his last seven (4.02 ERA) but he will enter this game only a 4-6 record this year, with a 5.59 ERA in 11 starts (team is 5-6). He's made just four road starts in '09, going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA and in four daytime starts, he's 1-2 with a 6.85 ERA (Twins are 2-2). Now let's get to Chicago's Ted Lilly. He's been very good since coming to the Cubs in 2007, going 15-8 (3.83 ERA) that season and following it up by going 17-9 (4.01) last year. He's been the team's most consistent starter this season, entering with a 7-4 mark and a 3.00 ERA in 12 starts (team is 8-4). Lilly has an 0.87 ERA in his last three starts (he's 2-0 and the team is 3-0) and on the season, has been much better here in Wrigley, than he has been on the road. He's 3-3 with a 4.40 ERA in seven road starts (team is 4-3), while going 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA in five home starts. Unlike Baker, who has struggled in his daytime starts, Lilly has posted a 2.25 ERA in his four afternoon starts. Lilly, as most know is a lefty, and that's the clincher. The Twins were only 11-21 vs lefties in road games last year and while they are 8-1 at home in night games vs lefties this year, they are just dreadful vs left-handers in all other situations. Follow the bouncing ball. The Twins are 0-2 (1.5 RPG) in home day games vs lefties. In road day games vs lefties they are 0-5 (1.6 RPG) and in road night games, 2-5 (4.6 RPG). That comes to 2-12 and more importantly, the Twins are 0-7 in day games (anywhere) vs lefties this year, having scored a total of only 11 runs (1.57 per game!). No sweep here, as Lilly leads the Cubs to a win. PERFECT STORM 20* Chi Cubs.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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