6-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, June 20, 2009


BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Lilly -168 1:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Michael Alexander

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox (MLB) - 7:10 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -163 Boston Red Sox Play Title: Play on Boston w/ Beckett


Rating: 4 Unit MLB Game of the Week

BECKETT is 30-10 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 21-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.

BECKETT is 19-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.

*** DO NOT PLAY IF PITCHER LISTED IS DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL ***

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

The Prezz NA
Boston Red Sox r970
(-163) / 5 units





5* SAT NITE BEST BET BLOWOUT
(969) ATLANTA (LOWE) at (970) BOSTON (BECKETT) 7:10 PM

In his four years with the Dodgers, Lowe was inconsistent but effective. But last Sunday afternoon, against a Baltimore lineup that was without the services of Matt Wieters and Adam Jones, he served up seven runs on eight hits and three walks while retiring just seven Orioles in less than three innings of work.

Lowe has never put up big strikeout numbers, however he dependency on getting the low strike from the homeplate umpire, inducing ground balls and getting batters to swing at his sinker he's buried in the dirt has been his strength. A drop in his K/9 Rate -- from 6.6 to 6.3 to 5.2 this year -- has been compounded with a dip in his GB% from 60.3% to 56.7% rate, resulting in a tendency to pitch up in the strikezone. The 36 year-old is going to slow down at some time, and that period appears on the near horizon. In 2007 Lowe pitched 110 or more pitches 4 times. Last year he did it 5 times. So far this year, 3 of his 10 starts have hit that level. He has always been better at night and more effective when coming off a high pitch count on regular rest. Today he goes into Fenway against a Boston club that has lost two straight on six days rest after working only 2.1 innings. None of the above speaks to a bounce back performance for Lowe.

In a classic case of the numbers catching up with the peripherals, Boston starter Josh Beckett was dominant for his fourth consecutive outing (this two starts back) throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees. With the Red Sox holding a large lead and Beckett having been worked hard over the previous three starts, the Boston coaching staff gave him short pitch count (89 pitches) so he could come back strong for his next scheduled start at Citizens Bank against the Phils. He followed his dominating performance against the Yanks with a clunker against the Phils allowing six runs on eleven hits. Before his six innings of six run ball against Philadelphia he allowed one earned run in 28 1/3 innings and had lowered his ERA in the process from 5.85 to 3.77. Beckett’s BB Rate was elevated early in the year but after not walking a single Philly in his loss last Sunday he's shown the command of his arsenal is back. Beckett has dominated the Braves in his career holding the current roster of Brave hitters to a sub-.200 batting average with a career ERA of 2.45 against Atlanta.

Umpire Gary Darling is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight at Fenway, and for a pitcher coming off a poor outing that demands the low strike, there is no worse scenario for Lowe. Darling gives pitchers the high strike, but offers no love for Atlanta's Lowe on the low strike. Expect to see more walks than strikeouts from Lowe, for the second straight start, and some high cheese from Beckett tonight.

Need more evidence that tonight's big juice game on the Red Sox offers value? Play against road underdogs (Atlanta) that are hitting less than .250 as a team over their last 20 games facing a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.000 over his previous five starts, this with a money line of +150 or more on the dog. The situation has cashed at an amazing 76-13 (85%) over the last five MLB campaigns and is 4-0 this season.

We rarely back a play of -150 or more, but today's contest offers the Red Sox nearly every angle resulting in an easy win.

5 UNIT Play on the Red Sox



The **** NA
Los Angeles Dodgers r957
Los Angeles Angels r958
u9.0 (-120) / 4 units




4* LATE PITCH ACTION TOTAL
(957) LA DODGERS (WEAVER) at (958) LA ANGELS (WEAVER) 9:05 PM

The Angels Jered Weaver is rightfully the favorite tonight in a pre-Fathers Day bragging rights game over brother Jeff. Jered is 3-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career against the Dodgers while Jeff has had less success with a 5-8 mark, yet a respectable 4.05 ERA facing the cross-town rivals.

Jered, 7-2 with a 2.08 earned-run average, is having an All-Star season. He is unbeaten in seven starts at home. Jeff is 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 games. Expect the brothers to be at their best and get help from a very pitcher-friendly vest behind homeplate.

Umpire Jeff Nelson is scheduled to call balls and strikes tonight. Nelson has, arguably, one of the largest (top-five) K-zones in the league.

One can get 9u-120 at Pinnacle.

4 UNIT Play on the UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Mike Rose

5* Clv/chc Over 9 -120

3* Sfg -142 Vs. Tex

3* Bos -165 Vs. Atl

2* Kcr +150 Vs. Stl

2* Cws +145 Vs. Cin

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Alex Smart

Chicago Sky Washington Mystics
Play: Under 148.5 / 3 units

The Washington Mystics played yesterday and will now be on tired legs as they play their 5h game of the season, this Saturday against a Chicago Sky team that also played yesterday and now playing their 6th game of the season.

After allowing an average of 70 points in winning its first three games, Washington went against Julie Planks tempo and system plans and got caught up in a high scoring 93-81 loss to Atlanta. Plank will sure here ladies get back to a more conservative approach tonight , against a Sky team that suffered their first loss of the season yesterday, because of poor defense allowing 91 points in a lopsided loss. Here is a quote from Sky coach Steven Key."Our defense, from the start, was poor at best," said of the Sky, who are 14-39 all-time on the road. "We were guessing a lot has to do with what we wanted to do and they took advantage."

Needless to say both teams will be keying on paying attention to defense in this spot , which I'm betting will result in a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number.

Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-3 in Sky last 12 games following a S.U. Loss. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Chicago is 15-4 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last couple of seasons, with the average combined score clicking in at 140.9 PPG

Play Under 3*


New York Yankees / Florida Marlins
Play: Under 8.5 / 3 units

AJ Burnett the Yankees starting hurler tonight in South Florida vs the Marlins was fantastic in his last start, putting together seven shutout innings while allowing just four hits and striking out eight against the Mets last Sunday. He will face a Marlins offense that has been largely inconsistent this season averaging 4.3 RPG vs right handers , on a batting average that floats right around the Mendoza line.

Josh Johnson the Marlins has made 14 starts, with his team winning 11 of them. It is pretty obvious he has been a night mare for opposing offenses this season, especially here at home where in 8 starts has garnered a very stingy 2.04 ERA. The 25-year-old continues to be in top form and is off a complete game effort last time out vs Toronto. It also was his sixth consecutive quality start, and fifth straight outing of lasting at least seven innings. With the Yankees top player Alex Rodriguez expected to miss this game because of fatigue, and Derek Jeter playing with a sore ankle, Johnson should once again be dominating.

I'm betting on this top quality hurlers to go deep tonight, and for this contest to remain on the low side of the number.

Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1-1 in Marlins last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These teams have gone under in 8 of the L/10 meetings in this series.

Play Under 3*


Los Angeles Dodgers / Los Angeles Angels
Play: Under 8.5 / 3 units

Jeff Weaver is expected to start tonight for the LA Dodgers, (replacing Eric Stults) as he goes against his brother Jared Weaver the starting thrower for the LA Angels. I'm betting we have ourselves a situation that sets up well for a major sibling rivalry , which in turn sets up well for a pitchers duel.

Jared Weaver the right-handed starter for the Halos has allowed just 10 earned runs in his past 89 2/3 innings of top tier baseball, which has seen him give one or no runs in six of his past eight outings, which is just incredible. Weaver has pitched like a man possessed, especially at home where he owns a 1.01 ERA in 8 starts, and in the past against the Dodgers, owns a 3-1 record along with a 1.59 ERA in five starts. He is a good bet for another big effort against a Dodgers team that is hitting just .240 in their L/7 while scoring n average of just 3.1 RPG

Meanwhile, Jeff Weaver the Dodgers man on the hill is 3-1, along with a very stable 3.72 ERA , and very capable of a top effort, in a spot start vs a team that has not faced him since the 2007 season.

Final notes & Key Trends: Jared Weaver is 10-0 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last couple of seasons, with the average combined score clicking in at 5.5 RPG . Under is 5-0 in Jeff Weavers last 5 interleague starts. Under is 5-0 in Jared Weavers last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Play Under 3*


Seattle Mariners -130) / 3 units

The Seattle Mariners are playing some excellent baseball at home of late, and are on the verge of winning their 4th straight series in front of their home town fans . The Seattle Mariners have posted a major league-best 2.64 ERA since May 20, keeping opposing offenses to a lowly .225 average during that impressive span. The Mariners have been even better in their 12 games at home in that period with a 1.69 ERA - more than a run lower than any other team.

I am betting on more of the same top tier work from the Mariners Jason Vargas , (2-2, 3.56 ERA) is one of the pitchers who has been lights out at home where he is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four appearances( three starts).

Meanwhile, Billy Buckner (2-3, 7.36) will start for the Dimaondbacks. The right hander has looked bad in losing his last two while recording a nasty looking 11.81 ERA in that span. He gave up six runs in in an 8-3 loss to Houston, last time out and is very viable fade material in this spot today.

Final notes & Key Trends: Arizona has hit a lowly .226 against LHP this season. Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Diamondbacks are 2-9 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Play on the Seattle Mariners 3*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Robert Feringo

Take Toronto (-115) over Washington
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

Take Philadelphia (-140) over Baltimore

Take Boston (-165) over Atlanta

Take Seattle (-130) over Arizona

Take Tampa Bay (+115) over N.Y. Mets


Today's Totals

Take 'Under' 7.5 Tampa Bay at N.Y. Mets

Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Toronto at Washington

Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Baltimore at Philadelphia

Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Houston at Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Tom Stryker 3* Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Greg Shaker
MLB: Tampa Bay Devil Rays at New York Mets - Mets (Shields/Santana) -113
Game Date: 6/20/2009
Note: Santana was rocked by the Yankees in his last game and boy did he ever look like Doo Doo. He is a gamer though and he should bounce back strong today. He does have a good chance to do so in a venue that he has thrived at. He has been next to unhittable here at home and is 5-1 with an ERA of right at 2 runs. Shields has not thrown very well away from home this year and it has been a long time since he has even done it. His last 4 thrown has been at Tropicana. His last 2 road games he lost at Florida, and he lost at Boston. The fact is, his team is 0-4 the last 4 times he has hit the road and overall he has not been quite the thrower in this situation. The Mets got a much needed win last night and with Big Ace on the Hill, they are in a good situation to get another one, despite their injury woes they are going through. I will have to say that Under might be worth a look in this contest as well with both Pens ranked very high this year in that department. I have not looked at public betting for this one but I am sure if I did, I would be on their side. They do win sometimes, don't they? Yep. Let's just No-Brainer this one with a nice price for the home team.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

doc Sports

5-Unit Play Take #966 Florida Marlins -110 over New York Yankees (7:10p.m.)

4-Unit Play Take #954 Chicago Cubs (1.5RL+120) over Cleveland Indians (1:05p.m.)

3-Unit Play Take #972 Kansas City +150 over St. Louis Cardinals (2:10p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, June 20, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Last year we were 86-43 for +36.7 Units in Baseball playing ONE UNIT PER GAME! Today we are featuring BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS WINNER as ALL FIVE of our handicappers are on this game and ALL FIVE of them are making this game a BEST BET!! The Computer Simulator gives our play an 88% chance of winning! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER for $25! 40-18 WINNING RUN!! 6/20/2009

BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS WINNER
Chicago Cubs w/Lilly -168 1:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

IndianCowboy Free Play

Take Under 9.5 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Washington Nationals

I actually predicted the public likely getting buried as they took the Bluejays to a tune of 73% on the road at Washington. But, rather than having the gonads to take Washington, I took the Under yesterday which is an indirect play on them. Today, not much is different as 70% continue to ride the Jays on the road at Washington. And, Vegas has only put Toronto as a slight favorite, simply because Washington is expected to do well today as well with Detwiler on the mound. Detwiler has pitched in 5 straight Unders thus far this year and comes off giving up 4 runs in 6 innings at Tampa Bay. Although he has not picked up a win yet this season, he has quality stuff and I wouldn't be surprised if he has a big game at home today. On top of that, Cecil is a Maryland native as he comes around to pitch at his old stomping ground today. He was born in Maryland and when to the University of Maryland so he should have plenty of family and friends at the game today. Plus, he gave up 8 runs in in less than 5 innings at Beantown in his last game and the Jays ended up losing that game 3-8. I look for both pitchers to pitch well today and this game likely to go Under. The Under is 5-1 for the Jays when they face a righty on the road with this total and the Under is 6-0 for the Nats as a home Underdog of late

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Steven Budin-CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK CALI-CARTEL

25 DIME RELEASE

New York Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

Craig Davis

Saturday's Lineup


40 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Detwiler as listed pitchers)



10 Dime ---- GIANTS (With Cain) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RANGERS (With Holland)





TORONTO BLUE JAYS (With Cecil and Detwiler as listed pitchers) --- This one was easy to spot. As many of you know, I'm not a big fan of pitchers who go back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation, and Detwiler (who I've played against in the past for this very same reason) is a classic poster child. The Nationals have been desperate for pitching since the beginning of the year... they've had trouble nailing down a closer, the bullpen has been a mess, and other than a few, spotty, solid starts from guys like John Lannan and Jordan Zimmerman, the rotation is a joke. Ross Detwiler doesn't help.



Since being called to the rotation, Detwiler has allowed 19 earned runs in 32 innings of work (5.34 ERA), but has been even worse in his last four starts, failing to last past the 6th inning in any start while posting a 6.21 ERA in those four games. He's also had some troubles with his control recently, walking five batters in his last game and three the game before that. He also failed to strike out a batter vs. Tampa Bay and the Nationals lost another one of his starts, 5-4. Remember, Detwiler hasn't earned a win in six starts for the Nationals and I don't see that streak ending tonight.



For Toronto, they send lefty Brett Cecil to the hill. He started 2009 hot and I have seen enough of his games to know what he's capable of. After allowing 8 ERs to the Boston Red Sox back on May 20th, the Blue Jays panicked and sent him back down to the minors. Desperate again, they have recalled him to start tonight against Washington. If you look at his first three starts of the season, he allowed just four earned runs 20 innings of work, posting two wins and a no decision. I backed Cecil as a big 40-dime winner over Oakland in his second start of the season and it came through as Toronto dominated their way to a 5-0 win. Cecil has all the physical tools to get the job done tonight, it's going to come down to a matter of how serious he is mentally. In an attempt to earn his job back for good, I believe you will see the best Cecil has to offer.



Toronto may have only scored one run last night vs. Jordan Zimmerman, but they clearly have the offense to score 6 or 7 runs easily, and they may get there by the 5th inning against Detwiler. Prior to last night's game, the Jays scored 8, 7, and 8 runs for a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia... beating Hamels, Blanton and Moyer. That's an impressive resume any way you slice it, and if he can't beat Ross Detwiler tonight he probably doesn't deserve to be in the majors right now.



The Blue Jays offense absolutely tatooes lefties, hitting .297 for the season against southpaws, including 22 home runs and an OPS of .832. They've beaten good lefties in the past (guys like Cole Hamels and Jon Lester) and there's no reason to think they can't do it again. Washington, on the other hand, does not hit lefties well, batting just .242 against them for the season. With Cecil out to win a permanent job, I believe the Washington bats are in trouble. Bottom line is that Toronto's offense is better and they have the clear advantage on the hill. Take the Blue Jays as your top play of the day.





SF GIANTS (WITH CAIN) -1 1/2 RUN LINE OVER THE RANGERS (WITH HOLLAND) --- I will continue to back Matt Cain until he lets me down. If I've counted correctly, I have backed him three consecutive times and he's delivered three consecutive wins. In fact, I could have backed him 8 straight times and come out on top... those are pretty good numbers. His overall record is 9-1 and since early in the season he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, I'd argue that he, and not Tim Lincecum, is the ace of this staff this year. Cain hasn't allowed more than one earned run in five of his last six starts, and when he starts at home he's even better, not to mention the fact he faces an offense today that's hitting .266 against righties. The Giants are 22-12 at home and face a team that has a .500 record on the road and a pitcher that was once in the bullpen and now finds himself in the rotation. Remember, that's a "no no". Derek Holland has allowed 10 earned runs in his last three games (11 innings) and just doesn't seem to have the stuff to be a starter... at least not yet. This one will be a laugher as the Giants win by at least four today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

INDIAN C PLAY OF THE DAY
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Boston
4 Unit Play. Take Under 147.5 between the Chicago Sky @
Washington Mystics

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-20-09

ASA's 5* play is Florida Marlins