6-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Gamehunter
ST. LOUIS +102 (1.5 UNITS)

PITTSBURGH -124 (1.5 UNITS)

CUBS +110 (1.75 UNITS)

ATLANTA +124 (1.5 UNITS)

MILWAUKEE +110 (1.75 UNITS)

WHITE SOX -112 (2. UNITS)

LA ANGELS -128 (2. UNITS)

OAKLAND -106 (1.5 UNITS)

OVER SD/SEA 9 RUNS (-102) (1.5 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

David Banks

MLB
7:05 Tor. Bluejays
7:05 Pitt. Pirates
7:05 Bost. Redsox Best Bet
7:05 Chi Cubs
7:10 FL. Marlins
8:05 Houst. Astro's

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Tom stryker

mlb interleague golden arm blowout
chicago cubs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2009

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Porcello -113 7:05 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Steven Budin-CEO
WEDNESDAY'S PICK COSTA RICA CONNECTION

25 DIME RELEASE

Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Chris Jordan Wednesday's winner ...


300? DETROIT TIGERS (LIST Porcello and Harden) - Love this young kid Rick Porcello tonight, as he’s arguably the best rookie pitcher in the bigs, while the Tigers come into this one after winning a thriller last night, 5-4, thanks to a clutch home run. It was Detroit’s sixth-straight win, and tonight in a clear pitching mismatch, there should be no trouble getting this win.

Detroit has batted .311 and outscored opponents 33-18 during its winning streak, and over the first four games of this streak Magglio Ordonez was on the pine. Though he’s back in the lineup, and he’s still yet to show his offensive prowess, the Tigers are still looking good in the box.

As for Porcello, he comes into this one looking for his third straight win and eighth in his last 10 starts. The right-hander leads all rookies in wins and ERA and has given up just one earned run in last two wins. The Tigers are 8-1 since May 5 when Porcello pitches. He won’t have any problem shutting down an offense that has struggled to support its pitching staff.

The Tigers, who lead this all-time interleague series 9-3, will earn their sixth straight win over Chicago.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Drew Gordon
Tonight's Games...

1. 100,000? Mariners
2. 50,000? Twins

1. Mariners- After watching the Padres hammer Garrett Olson and the Mariners yesterday, I can understand why some bettors would be hesistant to back this Seattle team tonight. However, don't let one good game by the Friars fool you, as they remain a tremedously road-weary club, and tonight's pitching match up isn't nearly as favorable as they had last night. Read on...

Let me make something clear: Josh Geer is BIG trouble tonight. He's been total garbage on the road this season, going 0-2 with a disgusting 6.99 ERA, including getting rocked by the Angels in his last roadie, allowing 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings. And what's worse, the Mariners JUST saw him. He pitched a solid game at home against Seattle Thursday, but you can expect things to go very differently this time around, as the Mariners adjust and Geer once again gets exposed on the road.

While the same argument can be made against Brandon Morrow, who pitched opposite Geer in that Thursday contest, I believe the converted reliever will benefit from two things: A. He returns home, where he posts a 2.08 ERA (albeit he has not started a game there this season). And B. He's only started two games this season, and showed marked improvement from his first start (at Colorado), to his second (at San Diego). Look for even more improvement tonight, as he zeroes in on the Padres pathetic offense.

Finally, there's some trends I want you to consider, incl. the fact the Padres are just 1-7 following a win. Not only that, but they're just 1-7 in their L8 interleague road games AND just 2-7 in their L9 meetings with Seattle! In other words, every dog has its day, and for San Diego that day was yesterday... Expect the Padres to come right back down to Earth in this contest, as their 10-23 road record is NO accident. Geer has been a gascan on the road, and while Morrow is still getting his feet wet as a starter, he was solid in 5 starts last year (2-1, 2.67 ERA) and showed flashes of that last Thursday. In the end, Seattle bounces back strong Wednesday night.

Take the Mariners behind Morrow over the Padres and Geer as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Twins- Got to like the Twinkies in this one, as they have a tremendous edge on the mound, and coupled with a slumping Brewers offense, this game has all the makings of a lopsided Minnesota win. Milwaukee has lost 4 straight, including yesterday's 7-3 loss to the Twins, where their offense couldn't produce despite a relatively poor effort form Liriano (3 runs in 5 innings, 5 walks). Things get A LOT tougher tonight, as Nick Blackburn gets the nod...

Speaking of Blackburn, he's been downright nasty for over a month now, tossing 6 straight quality efforts, incl. an impressive complete game winner over Pittsburgh Thursday (1 run allowed on 6 hits)! Note, Blackburn is 4-0 with a miniscule 1.84 ERA over his last 8 starts! The Twins righty has also been strong in interleague play, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA... Needless to say, the last thing this Brewers offense needs is to face the red-hot sinkerballer!

Opposing Blackburn is the Brewers Braden Looper, who's 0-1 with an ugly 7.97 ERA over his last 4 starts (Brewers 1-3 over that span)! True, he's been better at Miller Park, but overall, I'm hardly impressed, posting a very beatable 4.31 ERA at home on the season. Opponents are batting a ridiculous .322 off of him in the month of June, and the fact the Twins already beat him this season (May 23rd at Metrodome) AND the fact Minnesota is swinging the bat well of late, does NOT bode well for Looper in this one.

Finally, neither team's bullpen is pitching well of late, but the Brewers 'pen has fallen apart, posting a 7.68 ERA over their last 3 games. Couple that with their piss-poor hitting of late, and the fact Looper has been tossing up beach balls to the opposition (3 dingers allowed at Detroit), and I'm expecting Milwaukee's slide to continue in this one. Blackburn has been too damn consistent to look any other way, as he continues to impress in interleague play with another strong effort tonight.

Take the Twins behind Blackburn over the Brewers and Looper in this MLB match up.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

stan sharp

double dime

tigers -115 (betus) over cubs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

KBHoops

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2-2 last night but still another profitable day as we picked up 1.9 units. You have got to love underdogs, 2-2 last night and profited, 2-3 the time before and profited as well. Since the 16th I am 12-11 but up 24 units thanks to playing underdogs! If you were playing -150 faves you would have to go 16-7 70% just to match my results this past week. Playing favorites can drain your bankroll quick, play underdogs with value and shop for the best lines and you will build that bankroll. If you can hit around 50% with underdogs you will make a killing, and that is exactly what Im going to do. Lets have another profitable night, big card for tonight full of value.

5* Kansas City +160 **POD**
5* Cincinnati +134
5* Philadelphia +157
5* Washington +152
5* San Francisco +109

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Marc Lawrence

Underdog Game of the Week

Yankees at Braves
Pick: Braves +130

When the Braves send Kenshin Kawakami up against Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees in Atlanta tonight they will do so knowing Kawakami is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last three home starts. With Chamberlain having failed to last more than 6 innings in eight of his last nine starts, look for the Yankees to drop their 5th straight game here tonight. Atlanta with Kawakami versus Chamberlain is our MLB Underdog Game of the Week.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Jamie Tursini

Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -125

Lost with the Pirates last night as they fell short with a strong 9th inning rally. Z.Duke has been strong. At home especially as he is 5-2 with an ERA of 2.77. He's allowed only 46 hits and 9 BB's in 52 innings leading to a WHIP of 1.06! Umpire M.Winters is behind the plate. On April 13th he called a 7-0 Z.Duke win at home vs Houston.

Take the Pirates

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

WeCoverSpreads

Marlins-136

The high 7.15 ERA that Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco has this year is somewhat misrepresenting his play of late. He has three quality starts in a row under his belt against Boston, Toronto, and San Francisco. He has a 2.50 ERA, 18/4 strikeout/walk ratio, and has given up just six earned runs in those starts. Nolasco was a 15 game winner with a 3.52 ERA last season and seems to be settling down into last seasons form. Nolasco got off to a slow start last year as well and finished the year with an amazing 12 quality starts in a row. This is a good number to lay considering Nolascos overall talent and his opponent tonight.

Jason Berken is in for a long night. The touted rookie has not adjusted to the big leagues as of yet. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.84 ERA on the season. His last three starts he has given up 17 earned runs in just 14.1 innings of work wit ha 10.67 ERA. He has produced just one quality start out of five starts this season and was rocked for 9 earned runs in his lone start on the highway this year. Facing the potent Marlins line up in this hitter friendly park isn't too appealing for the young struggling Berken. The O's are just 1-7 in the last 8 meetings overall when facing Florida. We'll back the proven young hurler over the struggling kid lacking confidence in a tough spot tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2009

4* Padres at (980) Mariners: Chris Young is joining Jake Peavy – and nearly every other Padres starting pitcher from the start of the season – on the disabled list. For the Padres, it has gone on way too long already: their record 13-game losing skein in interleague play, the 10-game winning stretch by the Mariners at Petco Park, the 12-game, 44-at bat stretch between homers for Adrian Gonzalez and silence of the Padres' bats in general. It doesn't help to face Mariner starter Brandon Morrow, who has struck out 30 in 25 innings. Morrow, starting once more in place of Erik Bedard, struck out six and allowed two runs over four innings Thursday against the Padres. This weak San Diego team is 9-23 on the road. San Diego is 1-4 in the last 5 starts made by wild Josh Geer (5.98 ERA), who is winless with a 6.99 ERA on the road. Play the Mariners.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

seabass

50* texas
30* atl
30* fl. marlins
30* san fran
30* tor
30* st louis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-24-09

David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #976 L.A. ANGELS over COLORADO

In the long run Joe Saunders over Jason Marquis, and the Angel lineup over the Colorado lineup, is a -180 setting on this field. But that recent moment from the Rockies has vastly reduced the price structure, and that means it fits into our upper ranges for a 6* call. The pieces fall in to place to win it easily.

Marquis brings a lot of respect from his 9-4/3.71 and current form, but we peg him as most vulnerable here. First note that he has not turned his career around, but instead has taken advantage of a soft opening schedule – of the 131 pitchers that have worked at least 50 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #105, and it has been a particularly easy recent stretch. But part of that stretch was a home game against Pittsburgh in his last outing when Jim Tracy put too much emphasis on his getting a complete game (he had only thrown five previously in his 10-year Major League career). He ended up toiling to 125 pitches, and ultimately having to be replaced in the 9th, and that kind of work load at the Denver altitude is not what the doctor calls for at this stage for a guy that is still not much more than a journeyman. The pitch count was by far his season high, with the previous being only 113, and in six starts he did not even reach 100. What happened when he threw 113? The next time out the Giants got to him for seven runs, five earned, in six innings, and over the last three seasons he has worked to a 5.67 tune in starts after topping the 110 plateau. Now he is off of back-to-back counts of 110 and 125 at Coors Field, against weak Pirate and Mariner offenses, and that does not bode well for him to step up against this group tonight.

Meanwhile the Rockies as a team also lost some of their momentum on Tuesday, managing only six hits, and have to step in against Joe Saunders, another of those left-handers that can be awfully difficult to read on the first look (a 4-1/2.85 in Inter-League play for his career speaks volumes about that). Carlos Gonzalez is the only Colorado starter that has ever faced him, which means significant matchup problems, and Saunders will exacerbate those issues by throwing strikes (only 28 walks in 92.1 innings), and forcing a lot of weak contact on pitches at the edges of the strike zone. With both the timing and the value just right, we step this one up.


EXPERT: David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* #970 HOUSTON over K.C.

Wins do not always mean that teams have broken out of slumps, and last night’s Royal victory here was a good example – after entering on an 0-5 slide in which they had been out-scored by 32 runs, they did little as a team, getting out-hit 10-6, while striking out eight times. They simply road the backs of Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria, which has been one of the few paths to success that they have had. Now a struggling side has to find a way to win with much less going for them from a pitching standpoint, while going into a much tougher arm, and we believe this a mismatch much worse than is being priced.

Luke Hochevar has worked to a 3-9/6.50 on the road as a Major League starter, with 13 home runs allowed in those 81.2 innings. Ordinarily we would not need to say much more than that, except note that there were also six unearned runs in that span. Yes, he was taken at the top of the draft board and is considered a good prospect, but there is a surprising lack of pop coming from his arm (only 12 strikeouts in 31.1 innings), and off of a dismal outing vs. Arizona in his last appearance confidence is absolutely an issue.

Meanwhile we see Roy Oswalt as being in a correction mode off of his slow start to the season, and his last two outings have been outstanding, but no one has noticed. Two games back he held Arizona to one run on five hits over seven innings of a road win, and at Minnesota on Friday he had some of his best stuff of the season, working eight innings and getting 20 of 24 outs on ground balls or strikeouts. But when Jason Michaels lost a fly ball in the Metrodome lights in the 8th inning it added a couple of earned runs and a double to his allowance that in reality were not of hid doing, and that keeps the value behind him excellent for this setting. Now we can confidently call for him to dominate a weak lineup, on a night in which he should also get plenty of offensive support.




EXPERT: David M@linsky
TITLE: Three for the Money - MLB
REASON FOR PICK: 3* #966 FLORIDA over BALTIMORE

We had a good idea behind Ricky Nolasco in turning a 5* Under play at Boston in his last outing, but it rained on our parade – he showed that he was ready to get back to that excellent late-season form of 2008, allowing only one run and one hit through five innings while not walking a batter, but the weather took away a chance to cash that ticket. Now we can come right back again in a pitching mismatch that is much wider than is being priced.

Nolasco shows a 3-6/7.15 for the full season, but those numbers carry no meaning. What matters to us is the 2.50 over three starts since coming back from that corrective stint in the Minors, and he has gotten stronger each time – in his last two outings he faced tough Boston and Toronto lineups in the road, yet had twice as many strikeouts (14) as base-runners allowed (six hits and one walk). We can call for his momentum to continue here, and a team that has won three straight, moving to within three games of first place in the N.L. East in the process, brings a similar enthusiasm to the setting.

Meanwhile the Orioles are floundering at 11-21 on the road, even with that weekend success at Philadelphia, and Jason Berken brings little to the proceedings. After winning his debut he has worked to an awful 0-3/7.59 over his last four starts, and in his only road outing was crushed at Oakland. His ground-ball and strikeout ratios are such that he does not have the stuff to be in a Major League rotation yet, and having only had five career starts at the AAA level, he could be on his way down for more seasoning soon.