6-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Jack Jones
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
15* on Kansas City Royals +106

The Royals are the play over the Astros Thursday afternoon. Houston starter, Brain Moehler, has been a disaster at home this season. In 5 home starts, he is 0-3 with a 9.13 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP. The Royals throw Brain Bannister, and despite a so-so performance on the road this season, he has pretty good numbers. He is 5-4 on the year, with a 3.77 ERA, including a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts. Houston is already down 0-2 in this 3 game series, and the Royals should complete the sweep tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays
20* on Reds/Blue Jays UNDER 8.5

The Under in the Reds/Blue Jays game today is the strongest play on the board, mostly due to the pitching match up between Johnny Cueto and Brett Cecil. Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season, earning a 2.55 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 14 starts. He's been simply dominant on the road this year, allowing only 9 earned runs in 53 innings pitched, a 1.53 ERA. Toronto starter, Brett Cecil, only has 2 starts at home this season, but has given up just 4 earned runs in 12 innings pitched, a 3.00 ERA. As long as both starting pitchers can throw near their potential, this game easily stays under the total, as both teams have very solid bullpens.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

JEFFERSON-SPORTS

METS UNDER 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Tony Salinas Baseball
Thursday, June 25, 2009
24*
Redsox {J.Smoltz} (-120) over Nationals {J.Zimmermann}
7:05 PM -- Nationals Park
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from left to right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90.
25*
Bluejays {B.Cecil} (-125) over Reds {J.Cueto}
7:07 PM -- Rogers Centre
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.
23*
Ny Yankees {A.Pettitte} (-110) over Braves {D.Lowe}
7:10 PM -- Turner Field

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

teddy covers
1. Cubs
2. Phil/Rays over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Robert Ferrrrringo

Take Boston (-120) over Washington

Take L.A. Dodgers (-145) over Chicago White Sox


Today's Totals

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 N.Y. Yankees at Atlanta

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Cincinnati at Toronto

Take 'Under' 9.5 Chicago Cubs at Detroit

Take ‘Over’ 9.0 L.A. Dodgers at Chicago White Sox

Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Boston at Washington

Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Baltimore at Florida

Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Kansas City at Houston

Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

06/25/09
11:47 AM Smart Money MLB Wiseguys just hit #918 Washington.


06/25/09
11:55 AM Smart Money MLB Sharps backing the UNDER in #901 St. Louis.


06/25/09
12:25 PM Smart Money MLB Sharps just hit #910 Milwaukee.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

David Banks

MLB
1:10 St. Louis Cards
2:05 LA Dodgers
2:05 KC Royals
7:05 Clev Indians (KEY BEST BET)
7:05 Bost. Redsox
7:10 Atl. Braves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Gerry Andino

20* MLB Texas -110(100 Dime BIG TICKET)
20* MLB Toronto -125
10* MLB KC over 9
10* MLB Mets under 7
10* MLB Boston -125
10* MLB Yankees over 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Stan Sharp

Florida -115

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

HoopsEdge

Phoenix +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Craig Davis

Thursday's Lineup


60 Dime ---- INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf as listed pitchers)



10 Dime ---- RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher)



INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf) --- Let me get this straight... we have Cliff Lee facing Ross Ohlendorf and we're only giving -155 or -160 on the money line? I couldn't have asked for a "bettor" day (pun intended). When I first saw this pitching matchup, I thought surely we'd have to go with the run line (because we don't ask our clients to play more than -160 on a selection) as I expected this number to come out around -185 or -190. To get this price is a steal, and just so you know, I WOULD have played this game on the run line... that's how confident I am in Cliff Lee shutting down the Pirates for six or seven innings, maybe more, tonight.



First, let's look at Lee before I get to Ohlendorf. Cliff Lee is a stud; a lefty stud. The guy was absolutely phenomenal last season and despite a slow start to this year, he's back on track to post similar numbers to what we saw in 2008. Please do not, under any circumstances, let his 4-6 record scare you. I'm not one who gets all caught up in wins and losses when it comes to starting pitchers because I don't believe that's a true gauge of his value. You have to look much deeper than W/L record to figure out if a pitcher is a quality player and just had bad run support or if his W/L record really is indicative of the type of player he really is. ERA, WHIP, K:BB ratio, etc. Those numbers, to me, are a much better indicator.



Lee's season ERA is 2.94, but you'd never know it looking at his record. However, a deeper look into his W/L record finds his last three losses weren't really because he pitched poorly, but more a matter of his offense completely falling apart. 6 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Yankees; 8 innings and 1 ER in a 1-0 loss to the Tigers; 7 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Tigers. That doesn't even count his last outing where he cruised for 7 innings vs. the Cubs, allowing just 3 ERs (1 ER through 6 innings) but watching his bullpen implode in the 8th and 9th and instead of earning a win, he suffered a no decision. That's just not normal baseball and I'm calling for things to turn around for Lee, starting tonight.



The best way for Lee to ensure a win this evening is to go as deep into the game as he possibly can. If you look at his last three wins, Lee has gone 9 innings, 8 innings and 7 innings and his pitch count never rose above 113. In fact, in his 9 inning, complete game win over St. Louis Lee pitched just 93 pitches, striking out 6 and allowing just three hits. With Pittsburgh not being a disciplined team at the plate, I don't expect Lee to go too deep into any count with any hitter. That's going to keep his pitch count down and keep him in the game longer.



As for Ohlendorf, well let me just say he's a trainwreck. Ohlendorf was a career relief pitcher with the Yankees and Pirates over the last two years before Pittsburgh decided to promote him to the rotation in 2009. Since he's become a starter, Ohlendorf's ERA is 4.94 but his record (6-6) is two wins better than Lee's. Part of the reason for Ohlendorf's high ERA is the fact he doesn't quite have the stamina to go deep into games. In fact, just once this year has he thrown more than 97 pitches and he averages less than 6 innings per start. That still doesn't take away from the fact he's allowing at least 3 ERs per contest or the fact he's allowed five or more in 3 of his last 7 starts.



After a 10-6 thrashing of the Indians last night, I can't believe the Pirates have it in them to score more than a few runs tonight. Cleveland should be able to get to Ohlendorf early and often, giving Lee more than enough run support. The Indians are 4-1 in their last five road starts when listed as a favorite of over -150 and 15-5 in Lee's last 20 Interleague starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 5-23 in their last 28 (1-8 in their last 9) Interleague games vs. a lefty and 0-5 in their last five games as a dog. This game is over by the 6th or 7th inning as the Indians rout the Pirates 7-2.



RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher) For starters, Texas has taken six of the last seven from Arizona dating back to the 2000 season of Interleague play. On top of that, I just like Scott Feldman and I don't trust Arizona's offense to get on top of his fastball. Yes, I realize Feldman's ERA has crept above 4 for the first time since May 17th when it was 4.04. Two of Feldman's last three starts have been his two worst of the year, allowing four ERs to Toronto and five ERs to San Francisco in his last start. He did, however, shut down the Dodgers for five innings in between those two games, so it's not like he's lost it completely. He's run into a little hard luck... but it's nothing a great performance tonight can't cure. His ERA is still respectable and he's only walked one batter in his last two starts, helping his WHIP to improve while keeping runners off base.



To be honest, I don't care if Jon Garland starts tonight for Arizona or not because I don't think it's going to matter. As long as Dan Haren isn't the starting pitcher (which I know he's not going to be), I feel the Rangers are capable of winning this game. Texas' bats haven't come alive yet in the desert and are way overdue... and I believe tonight is the night we see them light up the Phoenix sky. The Rangers aer 12-3 in their last 15 games vs. a losing team and 4-0 in Feldman's last four starts vs. a team with a losing record. Like I said, I don't care who really throws tonight for Arizona because I'm counting on a Texas win regardless. Play the Rangers as your bonus play of the day.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

EXPERT: David M@linsky
TITLE: 6* Top of the Ticket - Night
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #922 ATLANTA/NY YANKEES UNDER

The way that the ball has carried at new Yankee Stadium has obviously created some issues in terms of games being played there. Tonight we get to take advantage of those factors in a different direction, as both the New York offense, and starting pitcher Andy Pettitte, getting priced improperly here because of some of those performances in the Bronx.

In their first road trip in June, the Yankees scored eight runs in three games at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. They opened this trip with just 11 runs in four games prior to last night, and take that 8-4 win with a grain of salt – they did not score in three innings against Kenshin Kawakami, who had to leave early, and piled up those runs against the bottom of the Atlanta bullpen. Away from home this is only a good, no a great, offense, and they are going to have their hands full against Derek Lowe, who rebounded from a rare bad outing at Baltimore to pitch solidly in a road loss to Boston his last time out. Lowe has only allowed three home runs in 92.1 innings this season, and if you keep the Yankees from hitting the ball out of the park, this offense has trouble finding other ways to score.

Meanwhile Andy Pettitte’s 4.26 ERA does not paint the proper portrait here. Pettitte like all others has his issues with the new ballpark, where he has worked to a 5.77 tune, allowing nine home runs in 48.1 innings. But on the road he has been a razor-sharp 2.35, allowing only two homers in 38.1 frames, and his first outing of this trip was a sparker at Florida, with only one run on three hits over seven innings, a span in which he struck out seven while not walking a single batter. In terms of how the value shapes up, his six road starts have played Under to a 5-1 tune, with those games finishing a collective 19 runs below the Total, and with the only Over coming by just a half run.

Lowe and Pettitte are not the full story here – because of the way that this series has flowed, all key bullpen arms are available here; while Mariano Rivera did go 1.1 innings last night, it only required 19 pitches. That means that big innings are not easy to come by at any point vs. starters that do not allow homers or issue many walks, and solid late-inning arms that bring the same traits. With the 8.5’s available out there at no juice, or even a plus price in some key precincts, it makes it even easier to step up here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Billy Coleman Sports

4* PHILLIES
3* YANKEES
3* FLORIDA

WNBA

3* PHOENIX

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Vegas Runner

3* Tampa Bay Rays
2* Yanks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 6-25-09

Bob Balfe:

06/25/2009

MLB Baseball
Nationals +105 oer Red Sox
Zimermann/Smoltz