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EXPERT: The Prezz
TITLE: 8* SAT BEST BET BLOWOUT **HUGE 12-0 RUN**
REASON FOR PICK:
8* EARLY PITCH BEST BET BLOWOUT
(905) MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) at (906) ST LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) 12:10 PM
Kevin Slowey left Friday's game after the sixth inning with tightness in his ribs. All reports, however, have Slowey felling fine with eight days between starts. Slowey threw a bullpen session Thursday and pronounced himself perfectly fit. The Twins right-hander has put a string of quality starts together that deserve recognition. He's easily the ace of a good Twins staff and he's done it a big differently than his career peripherals would have projected. Slowey hadn't walked more than two in any start this year, but tied a career high with four walks Friday against Houston while pitching through a stiff right side. His K/BB is still 4.8 with a BB/9 of just 1.5 and on extra days' rest this season, the righty is over-the-top good with a 5-0 record and 2.93 ERA. His despite the four walks in his last outing, his pinpoint control is even getting better, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s of 1.5/1.4/1.1, and his K/9 is an acceptable 6.3. As a fly ball pitcher, 47% FB%, he is susceptible to the longball, 12 home runs allowed in 72.2 innings, but his strong command limits the damage and pitching in new Busch fits his style perfectly.
Cards starter Todd Wellemeyer has only tossed one quality start in his last nine starts, and while he's been a victim of some bad luck, his velocity is down and his ability to get swings and misses is at a career low. A diluted New York Mets lineup slapped the right-hander for five runs, 10 hits and four walks in a 6-4 victory during his last start at pitcher friendly Citi Field. Wellemeyer was in trouble in almost all of his 5 2/3 innings, and though he often kept the Mets to a minimum — one run here, another there — he never looked comfortable. In his career Wellemeyer has been much better away from Busch, so a start today against a terrific group of left-handed bats makes the Cards starter a valued play-against. Wellemeyer has a near 9.00 ERA against left-handed hitters and 10.00 ERA with runners on base. His 22.50 ERA with runners in scoring position is explained by his drop in velocity and inability to create swings and misses.
The Twins are 16-5 against the money line versus a National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons and 24-9 overall against the money line in an inter-league games.
The favorable opening line (Twins -110) offers far too much value to pass up. Look for a second straight easy victory by the Twins and their ace today.
TITLE: 8* SAT BEST BET BLOWOUT **HUGE 12-0 RUN**
REASON FOR PICK:
8* EARLY PITCH BEST BET BLOWOUT
(905) MINNESOTA (SLOWEY) at (906) ST LOUIS (WELLEMEYER) 12:10 PM
Kevin Slowey left Friday's game after the sixth inning with tightness in his ribs. All reports, however, have Slowey felling fine with eight days between starts. Slowey threw a bullpen session Thursday and pronounced himself perfectly fit. The Twins right-hander has put a string of quality starts together that deserve recognition. He's easily the ace of a good Twins staff and he's done it a big differently than his career peripherals would have projected. Slowey hadn't walked more than two in any start this year, but tied a career high with four walks Friday against Houston while pitching through a stiff right side. His K/BB is still 4.8 with a BB/9 of just 1.5 and on extra days' rest this season, the righty is over-the-top good with a 5-0 record and 2.93 ERA. His despite the four walks in his last outing, his pinpoint control is even getting better, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s of 1.5/1.4/1.1, and his K/9 is an acceptable 6.3. As a fly ball pitcher, 47% FB%, he is susceptible to the longball, 12 home runs allowed in 72.2 innings, but his strong command limits the damage and pitching in new Busch fits his style perfectly.
Cards starter Todd Wellemeyer has only tossed one quality start in his last nine starts, and while he's been a victim of some bad luck, his velocity is down and his ability to get swings and misses is at a career low. A diluted New York Mets lineup slapped the right-hander for five runs, 10 hits and four walks in a 6-4 victory during his last start at pitcher friendly Citi Field. Wellemeyer was in trouble in almost all of his 5 2/3 innings, and though he often kept the Mets to a minimum — one run here, another there — he never looked comfortable. In his career Wellemeyer has been much better away from Busch, so a start today against a terrific group of left-handed bats makes the Cards starter a valued play-against. Wellemeyer has a near 9.00 ERA against left-handed hitters and 10.00 ERA with runners on base. His 22.50 ERA with runners in scoring position is explained by his drop in velocity and inability to create swings and misses.
The Twins are 16-5 against the money line versus a National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last two seasons and 24-9 overall against the money line in an inter-league games.
The favorable opening line (Twins -110) offers far too much value to pass up. Look for a second straight easy victory by the Twins and their ace today.
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