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Craig Trapp
Game Date / Time: July 19th, 2009 - 1:05 PM
This is a Guaranteed Pick on the Money Line for the Full Game.
Can't get any hotter as Craig is 7-0 in his plays since Monday!! Yesterday was 2-0 and today will add to his HOT STREAK with a very easy win! This one will be a daylight winner and add to our huge Bankroll building streak!! GUARANTEED WINNER!!
The Bottom Line
SEA -111: Pretty unbelievable as SEA has been playing great baseball going all the way before the all star break winning 5 out of last 6. Today they turn to Bedard who has not allowed more than 2 runs in his last 8 games. Even better he is 4-0 on the road and 3-0 at during day games!! Bedard will go at least 6 innings and only allow 1 run on Sunday. On the other side we have Laffey going for CLE trying to end a rough stretch of games where they have lost 20 of last 27 games and being outscored by an average of 3 runs per game. Laffey has been not good in his last two games with a 5.00 plus ERA. Today he will give up at least 4 runs in 5 innings to a very hot SEA lineup. This one will not be close. SCORE SEA 6 - CLE 2
4 Units Toronto Blue Jays Halladay - $1.25
Roy Halladay has been the talk of the town with plenty of suitors coming forward trying to trade for the Ace of the Blue Jays. His stock will rise higher today after he beats Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox. They key to this game is actually the hitting as the Jays hit left handers 19 points higher than they do right handed pitching so they will get some runs against Lester. Lester has given up 13 earned in his last three starts against the Jays in Toronto. Halladay has not looked sharp in his last couple of starts but two of those games were on the road and he pitches better at home where he is 6-2 on the season. Blue Jays are 6-2 in Halladays last 8 home starts vs. Red Sox and the Blue Jays are 2-5 in Halladays last 7 starts with Cooper behind home plate.
Saturday Recap -Splitsville....the toughest part about coming
out of the break is that you start to find out who the pretenders are
.....Texas.....
Todays Play(s) -Well since I missed the cut off and probably no one
will get the email...first off I'm sorry. I tried to wait as long as I could to
see if the line would come up. Truthfully it probably won't matter. In his
last start Y. Petit beat us on the first 5 vs Florida and his bullpen got
completely blown to pieces by the Marlins. Today, I look for him to
return to reality and get shelled. On the Cardinals side, Pinero has been
a very pleasant surprise and I like the Cards to take the rubber game
of this 3 game set! The line just came out at -215....basically what I expected.
MLB - St. Louis Cardinals -215[LISTED} Petit / Pinero....1075.00/ 500.00
Philadelphia vs Florida - 1pm
PICK: Florida ML Even (8*)
Florida and Phillies Under 9 –105 for 4 units-
The starting pitching and the umpire in the game in Florida has me playing the under on a day game Sunday. Phillies will be sending Happ to the mound and since becoming a starter he is 6-0 2.90 ERA in which also Florida has never faced him as a starter before. Florida will be starting Miller (3-4 4.50 ERA) and he has been a polar opposite pitcher home and away at home he has been impressive 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA. Miller has faced the Phillies once this season holding them to 2 ER in 6 innings 4 runs total that game ended up with 8 runs. The ump that will be starting this game is the biggest under ump in MLB this season being 14-5 to the under with just under 8 runs a game. I see this as a good game for an under and a good spot as well.
200? SAN DIEGO PADRES (LIST Latos only) - You’ve heard me talk about this pitching intangible quite a bit this season, and we’ve made money doing so quite a bit this season, that being playing on a pitcher making his big-league debut. Welcome to the Majors Mat Latos, a highly regarded prospect in San Diego’s organization, and someone who should thrive in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park.
I know the Friars are mired in a 4-13 skid and haven’t won consecutive home contests since a 9-0 home stand from May 15-24, but the Rockies 2-7 slide as road chalk and know damn well Latos is capable of after watching highlights of the kid fire in last Sunday’s All-Star Futures game in St. Louis.
He brings a fastball that consistently reaches the mid-90s and can top out around 98, and has shown pinpoint control in the Minors with his entire arsenal, which includes a wicked slider and a devastating change-up. Trust me here guys, he will make some of the league’s best hitters look foolish. He steps the bump with a confident demeanor and you never what he’s coming with, as he’s tougher to solve than the Pythagorean Theorem.
In his last start for San Antonio, on July 9, Latos pitched five perfect innings before being taken out due to pitch count. The young right-hander was a combined 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA at Double-A San Antonio and Single-A Fort Wayne in 13 games - 11 starts - this season. In 72-1/3 innings this season, Latos has 73 strikeouts versus just 12 walks – a better than 6-to-1 ratio - while allowing 42 hits.
The Padres, who won last night’s game 3-1, are on an impressive 9-3 run after limiting teams to no more than two runs in their previous game.
I even have some umpire numbers in our pocket, which favors Latos today, as the home team is on winning runs of 8-2 when Ted Barrett is calling balls and strikes and 11-5 when he’s calling the pitches and Colorado is the visitor.
Take the Friars here, and list this young rookie.
100? BOSTON RED SOX (LIST Lester and Halladay) - We have arguably the best team in baseball in the Red Sox (despite the Dodgers having the best record) against one of the most impressive hurlers this season in Roy Halladay. How do you choose? What have you done for me lately?
Well, the Red Sox have won six of eight while the Blue Jays have lost 13 of 17. And as the Blue Jays are fading in the AL East, and talks continue about an imminent trade of Halladay, this year’s All-Star starter is winless in four starts since throwing a seven-hitter against the Royals on June 7. In three starts since returning from the disabled list, the six-time All-Star is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA. That won’t bode well against a Boston team that is on an 8-2 run when visiting a right-handed starter.
Boston, which is also on a 13-3 run after allowing five or more runs in its last time out, will be out for revenge after yesterday’s 6-2 loss in the Rogers Centre.
For Toronto, I see it having a tough go of it against Jon Lester, who is 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts while he’s struck out 69 over 54-2/3 innings. The southpaw surrendered one earned run or fewer in six of those outings. More importantly, he’s had little trouble beating Toronto in 2009, having given up two runs and striking out 16 over 12-1/3 innings in winning both starts.
Al DeMarco Sunday's Play 5 Dime - Pittsburgh (Duke) and San Francisco (Cain) UNDER the total
A combined total of five runs have been scored in the first two games of this weekend series, a period covering 23 innings.
San Francisco has stayed under in six of its last eight games and four in a row on the road. No surprise considering the Giants are 13th in the league in run production. They've managed just 12 hits (one for extra bases) to go along with four walks and 18 strikeouts in the 23 innings played in this series so far. And their only run this weekend came courtesy of an error and wild pitch.
Pittsburgh has stayed under to the tune of 17-4-1 in its last 22 games, including 12 of 15 at PNC Park. The Pirates have scored a grand total of seven runs in their last four games. They've plated just 25 in their last 10 outings.
Runs will continue to be at a premium with today's pitching match-up between All Stars Zack Duke and Matt Cain. Pittsburgh's Duke, ironically, was named to the mid-summer classic's roster as a replacement for Cain after the San Francisco hurler was literally knocked out of his last start by a line drive to his pitching arm.
Duke, who is 6-3 with a 2.77 ERA in nine home starts this season, enjoyed tremendous success versus the Giants a year ago when he compiled a 1.65 earned run averaged in two starts against them.
Cain carries a 2.37 ERA in his last five starts, a mark that's just a notch below his season average of 2.38.
Beware: These guys are 0-5 since the All-Star Break
Philadelphia at Florida 1:10pm EST
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -124
Profile: Phillies starter J.A. Happ has been one of the best young arms in the National League this season. He has posted a 2.90 ERA and has allowed 1.17 base runners per inning so far this season. In addition, no one on the Marlins has faced Happ this season, so he should have a great deal of success against them. Florida has also struggled against lefties this season, especially lately, hitting only .224 against them over their last 10 games. I look for Philadelphia to continue their hot play over the slumping Marlins with their significant starting pitching match-up.
1 UNIT SELECTION
San Francisco at Pittsburgh 1:35pm EST
Selection: UNDER 7.5 RUNS
Profile: Both of these teams have really struggled to hit in this series, mainly because they are two of the worst hitting line-ups in baseball. Both Matt Cain and Zack Duke have pitched well lately also. San Francisco really struggles against lefties, especially on the road. This season they are only hitting .216 against them on the road. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's line-up has been significantly impacted by the barrage of trades. They are only hitting .213 against righties over their last 10 games, and their scoring has dropped off as well. Look for this game to be very low scoring and dominated by pitching.
1 UNIT SELECTION
Baltimore at Chicago White Sox 2:05pm EST
Selection: CHICAGO -145
Profile: In the last few years Jose Contreras went from being undervalued to be overvalued and now he is undervalued again. He appears to be over his problems of the last few seasons and has pitched some excellent outings this season. Contreras has had excellent command as well based on his dominant strikeout to walk ratio. He also in good current form, allowing less than one base runner per inning with a 2.91 ERA in his last three starts. Meanwhile, his opposing starter, Jeremy Guthrie, has pitched horribly on the road this season. He is also in bad current form, posting a 6.91 ERA and 1.74 base runners per inning over his last three starts. Chicago is playing very well lately while Baltimore is one of the worst road teams in baseball. Look for the White Sox to get the win.
1 UNIT SELECTION
Detroit at NY Yankees 2:05pm EST
Selection: DETROIT +130
Profile: Joba Chamberlain is really having problems right now, and the oddsmakers know this which is high the Yankees are this small of a favorite. The Tigers have a significant starting pitching advantage with Edwin Jackson going against Chamberlain. Jackson has had good success against the Yankees over the last two seasons, including in his shutout performance against them this season. He has also had 12 straight starts where he has given up 3 earned runs or less. What makes that statistic even more impressive is that he routinely goes into the 7th inning or longer. Look for the Tigers to get a win at a nice underdog price.
1 UNIT SELECTION
Tampa Bay at Kansas City 2:10pm EST
Selection: TAMPA BAY -147
Profile: Tampa Bay has been on fire before the all-star break, and they have continued their good play after the break as well. The Rays have a good situation in this game, as they have the better starting pitcher going, a better bullpen, and a vastly better line-up. Luke Hochevar is a young pitcher who has been inconsistent all season. He has been able to dominate weaker hitting line-ups but struggles against the better ones, such as Boston and Chicago. In addition, Hochevar is not in good current form, coming off two straight outings where he allowed nine hits. He also doesn't have a good strikeout to walk ratio on the season and has a tendency to give up home runs. I look for the Rays to pound him today.
1 UNIT SELECTION
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, July 19, 2009
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PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MONEY LINE WINNER
NY Yankees w/Chambrlain -145 2:05 EST
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