7-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2009
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PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MONEY LINE WINNER
Colorado w/Cook -143 8:40 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Karl Garrett
30 DIMER - MILWAUKEE (Looper over Vasquez)
30 DIMER - MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Looper over Vasquez)

This Milwaukee team is puzzling, as clearly they are a better team than the Pirates, but last night they let a chance to gain ground in their division pass them by, as Pittsburgh roughed them up pretty good.

The Brewers have now lost 9 of their last 12 on the road.

That is going to change tonight, as I fully expect Braden Looper to handle this lineup, and I also fully expect the Brewers bats to get it going against rookie Virgil Vazquez who is on an 0-3 run since winning his debut.

In Vasquez' last 3 starts, he has allowed 12 runs on 18 hits, in just 13-plus innings of work. Chances are, Virgil ain't gonna be around too long in this start.

Braden Looper counters with a 2-0 mark his last 3 starts, and he did pitch the Brewers to an April win over the Pirates.

In fact, last night's loss was Milwaukee's first of the season in 6 games against the Bucs.

Pittsburgh is still just 4-8 their last 12 games.

Gotta expect a Milwaukee bounce-back win this evening in the Steel City.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

JEFFERSON-SPORTS
ANGELS-128 gm1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

VR

3* Rangers/Red Sox Over...take 9 (-125) over 9.5 (+105)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Speculating Sports
Tuesday's selections are highlighted by our NL GAME OF THE YEAR, as well as two additional selections. We went 2-0 last night including an easy winner with Colorado as our Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH, a big payout of +150. The White Sox also cashed for us as well. We are now 5-2 over the last 3 days and we're keeping the hot streak going tonight.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia 7:10pm EST
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -131
Profile: Philadelphia is absolutely red hot right now, evident by their 9 game win streak, and their 10-1 win last night over Chicago. One of the biggest keys in handicapping baseball is to back hot teams, while fading cold teams. The Phillies bats are on fire right now, and I look for them to continue their hot hitting in this game. The oddsmakers know that Rich Harden is due for a bad game here based on this number. Harden was priced very high last year and early this year, but the oddsmakers are telling us something with Philadelphia and Joe Blanton being priced at -131. Harden's velocity is down and, he hasn't had his usual dominating stuff. He is able to get by against weaker hitting line-ups, such as Washington and Pittsburgh. However, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Cleveland all hit him fairly hard. What's even worse for Chicago and Harden is that Philadelphia hits righties very hard, especially lately. The Phillies are hitting well over .300 as a team against them recently, and they hit almost 40 points better against them than lefties at home. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's starter, Joe Blanton, has pitched very well lately, and he has done it against the best line-ups in baseball. Over his last ten starts Blanton has shut down Boston, Tampa Bay, and the LA Dodgers. In addition, he has only allowed 7 earned runs in his last 5 starts at home. Look for Blanton to shut down the struggling Cubs line-up while the Phillies hit Harden enough for the win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Boston at Texas 8:05pm EST
Selection: TEXAS +151
Profile: This game is a great opportunity to get Texas at a big underdog price. Josh Beckett has no doubt been dominant lately, but I expect him to have a letdown performance here. His performance has been much better at home than on the road this year. He gave up 7 runs at Philadelphia and 5 runs at Baltimore in his last 3 road starts. Beckett has no real motivation to get up for this game, which may prove important in the Texas heat. Texas' stadium is a tough place to pitch if you aren't motivated because of the power line-up that the Rangers have as well as the high temperatures. Texas got a win against Boston on Monday night, so they will bring some momentum into this game. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Tommy Hunter has been pitching better and better this season, and I look for him to be very motivated to pitch against the Red Sox. Boston is only hitting .240 against righties on the road this season, including a recent hitting slump on their current road trip. Take Texas as a large home underdog.
1 UNIT SELECTION

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox 8:11pm EST
Selection: TAMPA BAY -130
Profile: Tampa Bay outplayed Chicago in their game on Monday, despite not getting the win. Chicago only won the game because they were able to get a 3 run home run early in the game. However, the Rays have been playing very well lately, and they have a great starting pitching advantage in this game. Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann has pitched very well lately, allowing only one base runner per inning, while posting a 1.33 ERA over his last 3 starts. Meanwhile, Chicago starter Clayton Richard is in horrible current form, and I look for the Rays to absolutely crush him. They hit lefties very well, averaging almost .280 against them on the road. Meanwhile, Chicago hits righties almost 30 points lower at home than lefties, so Niemann should be able to shut them down. Tampa Bay has been able to play better on the road recently, and I look for them to get the win with a huge advantage in starting pitching.
2 UNIT SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

10x MILWAUKEE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

VR

2* Houston Over
2* Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

KBHoops
5* Pittsburgh UNDER 9.5 **POD**
5* Philadelphia UNDER 9
5* NY Yankees UNDER 10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Tim Trushel

Over Yanks/featured play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

THE PREZ

Cardinals at Astros

Pick: Under 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Jack Jones

15* on Tampa Bay Rays -120

Jump on the Rays over the White Sox with starting pitcher Clayton Richard struggling to get the job done for Chicago. Richard has just 6 decisions in 12 starts this season, but that's only half of the story. He's 1-2 at home on the season with a 7.59 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. If that wasn't enough, then his 11.81 and 1.87 WHIP over his last 3 starts should be. Rays' starter, Jeff Niemann, has been rock-solid in Tampa's rotation, notching an 8-4 record with a 3.55 ERA in 16 starts. Niemann hasn't had any trouble throwing on the road, going 5-2 with a 3.78 ERA in 10 road starts (the Rays are 8-2 in those starts). The Rays have been hot over the last month and Niemann has been a big factor in that success. The Rays have won all 3 of Niemann's last three starts, while he has posted a 1.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Grab the Rays as a medium-sized road favorite.


20* NO Doubt Rout Houston Astros -1.5 +140

It's hard not to love the 'Stros tonight with how poorly the Cardinals have been play, not to mention how well Astros' starter, Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching. Rodriguez is 4-2 this season in 9 home starts (the Astros are 7-2 in those starts) with a 2.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball this month, earning a microscopic 0.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts, all Houston wins. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are hitting just .231 as a team and scoring just 3 runs per game over their last 7 overall, and have struggled against left-handed starters this season, averaging 3.5 runs per game and hitting only .242. The Cards throw Todd Wellemeyer, and he's not helping their case. Wellemeyer has been very hittable this season, going 7-7 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far.


15* on Red Sox/Rangers UNDER 9

This line is high for a couple of teams struggling to score runs, especially when you consider the two pitchers on the mound. First, Josh Beckett pitched some of his best ball this season in his last 3 starts, earning a 2.78 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over that stretch. Tommy Hunter, tonight's starter for the Rangers, is relatively unknown, but he's been great for Texas since being called up. He's only 1-1 in 4 starts this year, but over that span he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, including a 1.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his three most recent starts. These teams are normally offensive powerhouses, however, they've both been flat on offense over the past week, a trend I expect to continue with a pair of pitchers going tonight that have pitched really well of late.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Stu's 1000 Dime Baseball


BREWERS @ PIRATES 7:05 ET
ALTHOUGH HIS ERA IS HIGH LOOPER IS HAVING A SOLID SEASON. 8-4 THIS YEAR AND HIS TEAM HAS WON 12 OF HIS 19 STARTS. HE IS ALSO WON HIS LAST 2 DECISIONS. VAZQUEZ HAS BEEN GETTING SHELLED ALL YEAR. IN HIS LAST 13 INNINGS HE IS 0-3 WITH AN ERA OF 8.31. ALL BREWERS TONIGHT.
BREWERS -125 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION





Stu's 1000 Dime Baseball #2


RAYS @ WHITE SOX 8:11 ET
ALTHOUGH NIEMANN IS 0-2 LIFETIME AGAINST CHICAGO, HE WILL GET THE WIN TONIGHT. HE IS 8-4 ON THE YEAR AND HIS TEAM IS 12-4 IN HIS 16 STARTS. HE IS ALSO 5-2 ON THE ROAD AND IN HIS LAST 20 INNINGS HE IS 2-0 WITH AN ERA OF 1.35. RICHARD IS 1-2 WITH AN ERA 12.60 IN HIS LAST 10 INNINGS AND WILL GET SHELLED TONIGHT. ALL RAYS TONIGHT.
RAYS -120 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Scott Delaney
Scott Delaney Tuesday night ... 10-DIME ANGELS (WITH O'Sullivan and Chen) - Alright, it’s a re-write from last night’s Pay-After release that was rained out, as I am backing this kid Sean O'Sullivan, who has lived up to his hype and has rapidly opened eyes after his first four Major League starts. As I stated last night, this kid has done a great job in keeping his team in ball games against some very tough lineups, including Colorado and Texas. He’s displayed durability, he’s shown toughness and he’s provided resourcefulness for the American League West-leading Angels.

Sullivan has recorded 15 strikeouts against a mere six walks over 23-2/3 innings. He had his roughest start in his most recent appearance, on July 4, at home versus the Orioles, as the brawny right-hander was tagged for four earned runs on nine hits in 5-2/3 innings. He took a no-decision out of that one, and the Angels are a perfect 4-0 in his starts.

On the other hand, we’re going against Bruce Chen, whose numbers don't look so great, despite giving the Royals a chance to win in his first two starts, pitching at least six innings in both of them. It’s his last two starts that are suspect, as he lasted 4-2/3 innings and gave up seven runs against Detroit on July 7, and then surrendered three runs in three innings of his last start on July 12 against Boston. He’s 0-4 with a 6.86 ERA overall, and against a superior lineup, he’ll struggle.

After a hard-fought 1-0 win in Oakland on Sunday, the Angels have won nine of 12, so I believe they’ll most certainly be able to manhandle a Royals team that has now lost eight of nine.

5-DIME ASTROS (WITH Rodriguez) - I wasn’t necessarily a believer of Wandy Rodriguez until his last outing, in which he threw six scoreless innings against the Major League-leading Dodgers last Thursday. He extended his scoreless innings streak to 17 over three starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his last three starts, allowing one earned run in 22 innings, and in his only appearance against the Cardinals this season he produced a quality start in giving up five hits and three runs in six innings.

And that was at Busch Stadium on April 12. This one is at home, where the southpaw is 1-0 in his last three starts there, having given up five earned runs over 22 innings for a stellar 2.04 ERA. Expanding the look at Rodriguez to his last five starts overall, he’s 4-0 with a stifling 1.54 ERA, while he’s recorded 33 strikeouts in those outings.

He’ll most certainly out pitch Todd Wellemeyer, who has had difficulty on the highway, as evidenced by his 5.90 ERA with a suitcase in hand. Trouble is for him tonight is left-handed hitters are crushing Wellemeyer with a .345 batting average and .604 slugging percentage.

This might seem like a hefty price to lay, but the Astros are 29-18 since losing a season-high seven in a row near the end of May, and they’re just three games behind the Redbirds, who have now lost four in a row at Houston dating to last season. Take the home team here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

Trace Adams

1000* - Tampa Bay w/Niemann over Richard, 500* - Toronto w/Cecil over Lee
The Rays threatened severely last night, loading the bases in the 9th before bowing 4-3 to snap their 3 game winning streak.



Look for Tampa to take this middle game, as Jeff Niemann has simply been brilliant lately, going the route his last time out, in a 6-hit shutout. That moves his mark to 4-0 his last 7 starts.



The Rays will tee off on Sox starter Clayton Richard who is on a 1-2 slide his last 3, with an ERA near 12.



The White Sox pitching has looked shaky their last couple of games, and let's face facts, the Rays are a better team than the Sox.



No issue with laying a little road wood in this one.



1000? - Tampa Bay w/Niemann over Richard



??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??



I said it before, but this Cleveland team should be ashamed of themselves. They have talent, but this is a heartless, gutless squad that continues to slump. The Indians lost the final 3 of their 4 game set at home with the Mariners, as they have now lost 13 of their last 18 overall.



Toronto has a little momentum going, as they won their last pair of Boston to end the weekend.



Brett Cecil will go against Cliff Lee, and while Lee may appear to be the logical choice, it is hard to get excited by his 5-9 mark this season.



Cecil did work 6 innings of 1 earned run ball in the last series meeting against the Tribe back on May 5th in a no-decision.



The Jays have won 3 of the 5 season series meetings this season, and they win again tonight.



500? - Toronto w/Cecil over Lee



??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 7-21-09

jefferson-sports
angels gm1 -128
tampa-120
yankees over 10.5
phillies-125