8-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Greg Shaker AAA Sports (COMP) 9-1 L10
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates - Pirates +1.5 (Gallardo/Maholm) -110
Game Date: 8/19/2009
Note: What is going on with these Brewers? They are, as we say in the Dugout "Stinking Up The Joint." Losers of their last 3 games and two of them to these Pirates. They are not only losing, they are losing badly. The Brewers, who had won 20 of 23 over Pittsburgh prior to this series own the majors' seventh worst record since July 1 at 16-23. And they are a Huge Favorite on the road? Well shoot myself!! The Pirate offense is coming around in a big way and they are having fun playing baseball. We have seen them hit 5 Homers in the first two games of the series and we have seen them POUND Righthanded pitching here at PNC to the tune of a .286 batting average all year. I do know that Maholm is struggling right now, but he has been much better at this park than on the road and he will be throwing at Milwaukee's weakest hitting point, verses lefties. Gallardo is a quality pitcher but it takes more than a starter to make a team and the fact is, the Brewers have won just 3 of his last 9 starts. As good as Yovani is, he does have control issues a lot and he has been having those lately with 7 BB's in his last 2 efforts. The Brewers are slowly, no they are fastly, seeing their Playoff Hopes go down the drain. There are some harsh words from the Milwaukee Press, and some Dugout problems as well with everybody pointing fingers at everyone. This Team is not in a good frame of mind. I am going to grab these 1.5 runs tonight and I feel right smart in doing so.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

FantasySportsGametime.com Wednesday Plays MLB Baseball 100* Play Milwaukee (-165) over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY) Pittsburgh has lost 18 of the last 22 games and they have also lost 18 of the last 20 games as a home underdog of +150 to +200. Paul Maholm has lost 4 of the last 5 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.41. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50* Play Colorado (-170) over Washington (MLB BONUS PLAY) Colorado has won 4 consecutive games vs. Washington this season and they have also won 18 of the last 22 games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Colin Balester has lost 7 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is also 0-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 8.59. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50* Play Toronto (-160) over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY) Roy Halladay has won 20 of the last 28 games as a home favorite of -150 or higher and he is also 13-5 in all starts this season with an ERA of 2.65. Clay Bucholz has lost 12 of the last 15 road games and he has also lost 5 of the last 6 games when pitching on a Wednesday.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Doc's Sports

6 Unit Play. #929 Take New York -125 over Oakland (10:05 pm MLB.tv)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Tony Weston
WEDNESDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Angels
5 Dime Cardinals

Angels at Indians
ANGELS - It was close, but the Angels got over on the Indians last night for their third straight win over the Tribe this season. Tonight, the Halos will make it four in a row.

Going back to last season the Angels have gone 6-3 their last 9 games against Cleveland.

Consider, too, Anaheim comes into this game on a roll, having won 7 of its last 8 games and is 14-5 its last 19 games overall.

The Indians, on the other hand, come into this game 9-17 their last 26 games at home.

Also consider that Cleveland scheduled starter Jeremy Sowers has been unlucky for the Indians. The team is just 3-6 his last 9 starts overall and is 3-6 at home with Sowers on the mound. The Indians have also lost each of his last three home starts.

On the other side, the Angels are 7-1 their last 8 games with tonight’s scheduled starter Jered Weaver on the mound.

Tonight, the Angels will get over once again with Weaver on the mound as they get their fourth straight win over Cleveland.


Cardinals at Dodgers
CARDINALS - After getting off to a blazing start this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been inconsistent and have struggled since the middle of July.

The Dodgers are just 9-14 their last 25 games and are just 3-7 their last 10 games at home, having lost 4 of their last 5 in Los Angeles. Tonight, the Dodgers will lose another game at home to the visiting Cardinals.

These two have split the first two games of this series, but for the year, St. Louis is still 4-2 against the Dodgers and is 10-4 its last 14 games against Los Angeles, going back the last few seasons.

Consider, too, the Dodgers come into this game having lost each of its last 5 games in which Clayton Kershaw has started, while the Cardinals have gone 7-2 their last 9 games in which scheduled starter Adam Wainwright has taken the mound.

St. Louis comes into this game having gone 9-2 its last 11 games and is 4-1 its last 5 games on the road. Tonight, the Cards will chalk up another win against the spiraling Dodgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Alex Smart

4* St. Louis Cardinals +110

The St. Louis Cardinals go head to head with the LA Dodgers in southern California tonight in a contest that Im betting favors the road underdog. The Cardinals starting pitcher, a viable Cy Young award candidate Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62 ERA), is one of MLB's most consistent starters, and when under rated by the lines makers is a very viable hurler to back as is evident by his teams 9-0 record as a road underdog. Wainwright is 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA in his last six on the outings and has seen his team win all 7 of his road starts at night this season. The right-hander's ERA and 149 strikeouts rank fifth in the NL in their respective categories. That is not a good omen for dodgers starting thrower Jayson Kershaw who has seen his team lose his last 5 starts thanks to a lack of run support. It must also be noted that the thrower was frustrated once again in his last meeting with the Cardinals on July 29, yielding four hits with seven strikeouts in eight innings of a 3-2, 15-inning loss.

Final notes & Key Trends: Cardinals are 9-4 L/13 meetings here in LA and are 35-16 in the L/51 overall confrontations. Wainwrights team when he starts against a winning team in the 2nd half of the season, dating back to last year is a
perfect 8-0.

Play on the St. Louis Cardinals - 4*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Wunderdog

Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
4 units Tampa Bay -240 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.7)

I keep saying this over like a broken record, but the oddsmakers can't make the Tampa lines at home chalky enough to take away the value. The Rays have been sizzling at home compiling an 83-34 mark as a home favorite and now also 69-24 vs a righthand pitcher at home. Rays also 47-13 at home with a posted total of 9-10.5 and with tonight's starter Jeff Niemann on the hill they are 10-1 in that spot. The Birds have been horrible on the road period, but as a dog of +201 or higher they are just 12-55. Looks like a chalky line, but taking a look at the numbers here says otherwise as a lot of four to one or better longterm situations in favor of the Rays, who I will back in this one.


Game: Seattle at Detroit
4 units Detroit -290 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.4)

All you had to see was what Justin Verlander did in his last game, especially late, to know this guy is zoned in and very strong right now. Verlander threw 123 pitches vs the Red Sox in his last outing and his final two pitches were fastballs, both clocked at 100 MPH! While he has struggled at times on the road this season, such has not been the case at home where he is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA with opposing batters hitting .205 against him. The Mariners Ian Snell is lost on the mound right now as his teams are just 4-14 on the season with him starting. That includes a horrible 1-9 on the road. It will take a minor miracle for the Tigers to lose this one and will play Detroit here.


Game: Boston at Toronto
3 units Boston +1.5 runs -160 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

The Boston Red Sox have probably done a better job than any other team in baseball against Roy Halladay. What makes it an even more difficult position for the Blue Jays is they are a slumping team and even with Halladay on the mound they are just 3-7 in his last ten starts. The Red Sox have a winning record vs Halladay over the last three years and, for his career, Halladay has a 4.34 ERA against the Red Sox, a full run above his career average. Clay Buchholz has had success against the Blue Jays as he limited them to one run in 5.2 innings this year and in his last outing worked seven innings allowing one run. Red Sox really stepping up against top pitchers as they have turned in an 18-6 mark in their last 24 vs a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Going with the Red Sox here on the runline.


Game: Minnesota at Texas
3 units Minnesota +120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Twins could have really caved in last night trailing 5-1 heading into the sixth, but ended up winning easily 9-6 and have the momentum coming in here after a 16 hit explosion. The Twins began the season at 0-4 with Scott Baker on the hill, but since then they have been an impressive 12-7 and also 5-3 in his last eight road starts. The Rangers have not been successful in Kevin Millwood's last six starts where they are just 2-4 and things don't get much easier here. Millwood has had fits with the Twins as he has taken the goose-egg at 0-6 for his career with a 6.00 ERA allowing 82 hits in just 57 innings and walking 21 as well, so just about two base runners per inning. Texas bullpen overworked last night puts the Twins in a good spot here and I'll go with them.


Game: Minnesota at Texas
3 units Minnesota +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

Looking at the track record the Twins have had against Kevin Millwood makes this one hard to pass up. Millwood has pitched the Rangers to just two wins in his last six starts, but now he faces the team that has had more success against him than any other. The Twins own Millwood and that is attested to by his career 0-6 mark, backed by an inflated ERA of six. He has allowed the Twins 82 hits in just 57 innings and adding in the walks makes for two base runners an inning. Getting +1.5 runs to go along with these numbers puts me on the runline with the Twins.


Game: New York Yankees at Oakland
5 units Oakland +120 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 6)

The Yankees will be in their most vulnerable spot as they call on newly acquired Chad Gaudin to face the A's tonight. Oakland is a team built around on base percentage and patient hitters, and since Gaudin walked 100 batters in an Oakland uniform in '07 in just 199 innings you know they will be taking a lot of pitches. Gaudin has already walked 57 in just 108 innings this season and his ERA was over five in the NL. The A's lost Brett Anderson's first six starts, but are now 7-2 in his last nine as he begins to figure things out and certainly is capable of a gem, more so than Gaudin. A's are playing well in the role of an underdog, winning six of their last seven and I'll go with them in this one.


Game: New York Yankees at Oakland
3 units Oakland +1.5 runs -140 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Yankees are light years beyond what the A's are this season interms of talent, but much closer when you consider the Yankees 34-27 road mark vs the A's 28-31 home mark. Put the A's pitcher with the best stuff on the hill vs the Yankees worst option that has not fared well and you have a situation that pushes the pendulum of value on the A's here and I will grab them on the runline in this one as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

BOB BALFE

Angels/Indians Over 10.5
Weaver/Sowers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Chris Jordan

100? PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (WITH Lee for sure going for Philly) - Point blank, I’m not ignoring the Cliff Lee revival in the City of Brotherly Love. He is in after eight strong innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last Thursday, when Lee allowed six hits, one run and three walks while striking out eight. Since moving over to the National League from the Indians, the Cy Young southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in three starts for the Phillies.

He’s dominated foes, allowing 16 hits, three runs and six walks in 24 innings. He’s fanned 24 batters and opponents are hitting a bleak .193 against him. Here’s the irony, last season CC Sabathia was traded to Milwaukee, he went 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his first three starts. He allowed 17 hits, six runs, five earned runs, one home run and six walks in 24 innings. He struck out 24 and opponents hit .205 against him. It must be a trade-thing, cause it’s working, and the Phils are this year’s beneficiary. Lay the run line, as Arizona gets nowhere and the Phils roll.

100? TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (WITH Niemann for sure going for Tampa) - I’ll bank on the defending American League champions tonight, as Jeff Niemann will be looking to turn things around as he comes in off another four-run outing as he was tagged for four runs in 5-1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Angels last Wednesday. He started the month of August surrendering just one run over eight innings to the Royals at the start of August, but the right-handed rookie has now given up four runs in back-to-back outings, and has a 6.17 ERA in those two starts.

I’ve watched the 26-year-old pitch, and he’s going to dominate the Orioles once again. He’s pretty familiar with the O’s, as this will be Niemann's fifth game – his fourth start - of his career against them -- the team he's faced the most; he's 3-1 with a 5.30 ERA against. Okay, so I don’t necessarily like the ERA, but I think I’ll be okay against Baltimore starter Chris Tillman. Lay the run line tonight for a blowout win.

100? TORONTO BLUE JAYS RUN LINE (WITH Halladay for sure going for Toronto) - Having settled back down since the trading deadline, Roy Halladay appears to be back to his old self again. He’s in off a Halladay-like dominating performance on Friday night, when he held the aforementioned Rays to a meager one earned run over eight innings for his second successive win. It also marked the Major League-leading 21st time in 23 starts this season the former Cy Young winner and 2009 candidate has logged at least seven frames.

Over his past two starts, the 32-year-old veteran is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Though he was 1-4 with a 3.16 ERA in his previous eight trips to the mound, he’s shed those doldrums and will come in with plenty of confidence in facing the Red Sox. In his lone start this season against Boston on July 19, Halladay turned in a complete-game victory.

It might be pricey to lay a run line against this team, but with Clay Buchholz on the hill, the Jays should have no trouble getting some runs in my opinion. They’re in revenge, as his first start in his return to the rotation was here in Rogers Centre, on July 17. He stifled them to one earned run over 5-2/3 innings and scattered just four hits for the win. The tide turns tonight. Lay the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

LT PROFITS

UNDER in all of these games

PHLIA 2 *
TBAY 2 *

TORONTO 5* GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

SSG/********

Chicago v. San Diego 10pm
PICK: Cubs RL +100 (8*) Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

40x MINN TWINS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

seabass 100* st louis, 300*angels, 400* cubs, 100* steam tigers run line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

JACK JONES

Angels ML
Padres +1.5
Yankees ML

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #919 L.A. Angels (-120) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
You all should know how I feel about Jeremy Sowers by now. The Angels are just a solid all-around team and they just happen to rock left-handed pitching. They are 35-16 overall against southpaws and are an automatic play against a lefty starter. The Angels are also 21-6 on the road and they are 13-3 in Jared Weaver's last 16 starts. In fact, the Angels are 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Tribe. This play should be rated much, much higher. But I respect how hard the Indians have been playing and I think something is a little off about the line. But not off enough to get me away.

2-Unit Play. Take #929 N.Y. Yankees (-135) over Oakland (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Here we are going to back the better team on the short line again. The Yankees are 10-2 in the last 12 games against the A's and they are 37-14 overall. If I see them at less than -160 I'm making a move on them. Why not? They have been wrecking people for the last two months. The Yankees have seen, and beaten, Brett Anderson this year. And after a strong start Anderson has posted a 5.51 ERA in his last five starts. Yankees eat up southpaws and I think they get the job done.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #905 Colorado (-155) over Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Just like the Yankees and Angels, the Rockies have been one of the best bets in sports over the last two months. They are a silly 46-22 in their last 68 games, so why wouldn't we be on them against the worst team in baseball? Rockies are 20-6 against the Nationals and 11-5 in Jason Marquis' last 16 starts.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #928 Texas (-130) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
I like the Rangers to win this series and that would require a strong performance out of Kevin Millwood today. I have held out for the Twins for weeks now, but the fact of the matter is that they suck. They are 5-12 in their last 17 and they have been one of the worst road teams in the league. Scott Baker has had all kinds of trouble this season and he is just 1-8 as an underdog (1-7 as a road dog). Kevin Millwood is 21-8 in his last 29 home starts, and facing a Twins lineup likely sans Justin Morneau I like him to get another 'W'.

1-Unit Play. Take #924 Tampa Bay (-1.5, -120) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 hosting the O's and they are 24-8 overall. Baltimore just can't beat other A.L. East teams. All Jeff Niemann has done lately is win. He is 12-4 in his last 16 starts and has been one of Tampa's best pitchers this year. The Rays are 37-14 at home and the O's are just 7-21 overall.

1-Unit Play. Take #911 Florida (-110) over Houston (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Florida is staying hot. They are 10-2 in their last 12 games and they have a nice edge in the pitching matchup. This club is 27-9 as a favorite and they are 7-1 in their last eight against the Astros. I don't see them letting up after a nice win last night, and the Astros just continue to struggle against N.L. East teams.

1-Unit Play. Take #909 Atlanta (-175) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)
Braves pissed away a 4-0 lead last night. I don't get it, but I have no problem going against the Mets again today. The Mets are doing the quintessential "Bet on a team that just lost its best player" maneuver. But I'm going to ignore that and back Jair Jurrjens, who should dominate the Mets lineup tonight. Right now the Mets are basically the Pirates, only worse. Braves gotta get one of these games and I think Chipper Jones will victimize New York again.

Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Minnesota at Texas (8 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Seattle at Detroit (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.0 St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Arizona at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 L.A. Angels at Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, Aug. 19)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-19-09

Kelso:

15 Units Rockies RL
10 Units Angels ML