8-20-09

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 11:50 AM

Re: 8-20-09

Chris Jordans 2 picks for today..
200? PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (Take any pitcher who is going for either team) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

100? NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 11:50 AM

Re: 8-20-09

Fazzini
Thursday's plays 15 Dime -- Angels (Lackey) -1 1/2 runs over INDIANS (Masterson)
5 Dime -- Eagles (minus the points over COLTS)

ANGELS
NOTE: List only Lackey as Los Angeles' starting pitcher

John Lackey has reassumed his place as the ace of the surging Angels.

The veteran right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his last seven starts. He allowed one run and seven hits in seven innings Saturday in Los Angeles' 5-1 victory at Baltimore.

Lackey is 6-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 outings against Cleveland, but has won his last three starts vs. the Tribe. He gave up one run and three hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts on July 29 in a 9-3 win over the Indians.

Cleveland starter Justin Masterson (3-4, 4.70) has been ineffective since coming over from Boston as part of the Victor Martinez trade. The right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA in two starts with the Indians. He allowed seven runs (six earned) on six hits and five walks in 3 1/3 innings Friday in Cleveland's 11-0 loss at Minnesota.

Masterson made two starts against the Angels while with the Red Sox and went 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He has allowed five runs and nine hits in seven innings vs. Los Angeles in two appearances (one start) this year.

The Angels have won their last five games, all on the road, and are 22-6 in their last 28 games away from Anaheim. They are also 24-8 overall since the All-Star break. With Lackey on top of his game and L.A.'s offense leading the majors in runs scored and batting average, this one could get ugly, especially since Masterson hasn't been able to pitch deep into games, which will mean lots of work for Cleveland's dreadful bullpen. Take the Angels on the run line.

EAGLES

Yes, I know Michael Vick is not going to be suiting up in today's game. But there's plenty of other reasons to like Philly in this one.

One big reason is Indianapolis' quarterback situation. While Peyton Manning and the Colts' first-team offense is expected to play about 20 snaps, there is a significant dropoff after that. Backup QB Jim Sorgi is still injured, so rookies Curtis Painter and Chris Crane will get the majority of playing time tonight.

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb and Philadelphia's first-team offense is expected to play the entire first half. After that the offense will be in the capable hands of veteran backup A.J. Feeley, who was 18 of 24 for 211 yards and a touchdown pass in Philly's 27-25 loss to New England in the teams' preseason opener.

While the Eagles are just 4-6 against the spread and 2-8 straight-up in exhibition road games the last five years, Indy is even worse during the preseason. The Colts are 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in preseason games since 2005, and have lost eight of nine home games SU and ATS.

I don't see Indy generating much offense after Manning & Co. come out of today's game. Take the Eagles to cover as a road favorite.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:01 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Tony Weston
THURSDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime Patriots

Bengals at Patriots
PATRIOTS - If you’re a New England Patriots fan, or you just like to get down on the Pats, you absolutely loved what you saw from Tom Brady last week.

The guy played longer than most people figured, he hit 10 of 15 passes and, most importantly, when he threw his one interception (he also threw two touchdowns) he got pretty pissed off. That actually bodes well for everyone with an interest in the Pats because if Brady gets pissed off in the preseason that means he’s actually trying and is actually competing, unlike the more than 100 guys out there who are just going through the motions.

So, tonight, in his first home game since destroying his knee, he’ll have a little something for the Bengals as he leads New England to an easy victory as about a 7-point favorite.

Last week against the Eagles the Patriots were catching 3 points and ended getting the outright win, beating Philadelphia 27-25 in Philly.

Almost surprisingly, it was the Pats’ first preseason win and cover since 2007. On the other side, the Bengals come into this game just 3-6 SU and only 4-5 ATS their last 9 preseason games, including last week’s 17-7 loss at New Orleans as a 3-point underdog.

Also keep in mind that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is hobbling around, nursing what is being called a “mildly sprained ankle.” Reports out of Cincinnati indicate Palmer will not play tonight, which means backups J.T. O’Sullivan and Carson’s younger brother, Jordan Palmer, will get extra reps.

Yeah, that doesn’t really strike fear in my heart either.

Lay the points and take the Patriots at home in this one.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:03 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Indianapolis (+3) over Philadelphia (NFL Power Play)

Philadelphia
• 1-6 SU & ATS in non-conference pre-season games the last 3 years
• 0-3 SU & ATS in pre-season as a road favorite the last 3 years
• 7-24 SU in pre-season road games

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:03 PM

Re: 8-20-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

10x HOUSTON ASTROS

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:04 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Vegas Informer

MLB BASEBALL PLAYS

4 Unit Play. #964 Take LA Dodgers –125 over Chicago Cubs (Thursday 8/20 10:10 PM WGN)

The West Coast hasn't been very kind to the Chicago Cubs and it seems like the Cubs always struggle against NL West teams (especially in the playoffs). Chicago is 8-20 in their last 28 road games against a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Cubs.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:04 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Wunderdog

Game: Seattle at Detroit

2 units Detroit -165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.2)

The Seattle Mariners hung in the wildcard race for quite awhile, but are slipping fast. This team that lost over 100 games last season is vastly improved, but now face the rest of the season without ace Eric Bedard, leaving a gaping hole in the rotation. The Mariners are just 11-14 in their last 25 games, and four of them were won by Felix Hernandez. Ryan Roland-Smith has done a very good job coming back off an injury, but he is facing a team that eats up lefthanders at 89-57 the last four years, and is also winning two of every three at home, and an even better 24-9 in their last 33. The Tigers have not lost more than one in a row at home in their last 16 played in Detroit, while the Mariners are now just 17-37 in their last 54 as a road dog. I'll go with the Tigers in this one.

Game: Seattle at Detroit

2 units Detroit -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 2 to win 2.6)

The Tigers are winning their way to the AL Central title at home, as they are 24-9 here over their last 33. They have an above .500 record playing to a would be -1.5 runline in those 33 games, making the + odds on the runline spill value on the Tigers. When you consider that the Mariners, in their last 11 road losses, that 10 of them have been by two runs or more it just adds to the value here. I'll go with the Tigers on the runline here.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:05 PM

Re: 8-20-09

INDIAN COWBOY

4 Unit Play. #974. Take the Texas Rangers -1.5 (-105) over the Minnesota Twins (Thursday @ 8:05pm est). I'm not a huge fan of the run-line but given that the Rangers come off back to back losses to the Twins and with Holland on the mound for them I expect them to do well. Bear in mind the Rangers were up 4-1 yesterday prior to Millwood giving up four runs before his exit and ended up losing 4-5. This team is in the playoff hunt and certainly cannot afford to drop 3 of 4 games to the Twins at home. I look for them to bounce-back today behind Holland who has pitched very well of late including a complete game shutout of the Angels on the road and defeating Boston by going 6 innings and yielding just 2 runs. The Rangers are 10-2 in their last 12 home games and the Twins are 0-4 vs. a left hander of late. The Rangers have quite a bit of frustration of late and they will look to take it out on Swarzak who has given up 16 runs in his last 8 innings.

Good luck,

IC

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:05 PM

Re: 8-20-09

INDIAN COWBOY

4 Unit Play. Take Over 166 between the San Antonio Silver Stars @ Atlanta Dream (Thursday @ 7:30pm est). There has been a sharp spike in the total since its opening. You should be able to find a few 165.5's as well so keep an eye out for that. The Silver Stars are quite good at winning games ouright on the road as evdient by their SU wins at Minnesota and at LA. Given that these two teams have not met each other this year, this game will likely be an up and down game which the Silver Stars don't mind playing on the road. After all, the game in Phoenix totaled 178 on the road and the game in Minnesota totaled 176 on the road - two teams that run the same pace for the most part as the Dream. Atlanta has been playing very well as they have covered their last 8 of 10 and won their last 7 of 10 straight up. The Dream are 4-1 to the Over against the Western Conference of late and San Antonio is 6-1 to the Over against the Eastern Conference. I have this game at 172 today so let's roll with the over.

Good luck,
IC

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:05 PM

Re: 8-20-09

USA SPORTS
8/20/2009

Best Bet!
FLORIDA MARLINS (J.Johnson) at HOUSTON ASTROS (W.Rodriguez)

Under 7.5

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:23 PM

Re: 8-20-09

KELSO STURGEON

Thursday, August 20, 2009

10 Units

Eagles (-3) over Colts

8:00 PM -- Lucas Oil Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) -3 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-1) Prediction: Eagles by 10-13 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: FOX Comments: This is the ultimate situation play in the NFL pre-season. For openers, Philadelphia coach Andy Reid has said he will play his starting units for the entire first half and that should spell big trouble for an Indianapolis team that has so many new players at so many positions they hardly know one another’s names. The Colts have new receivers, two new offensive linemen, other offensive linemen playing new positions and a new coach. There was a reason starting quarterback Peyton Manning was sacked three times on the six downs he played last week in a 13-3 loss to Minnesota last week. Manning will play a bit more tonight but the Colts will again be without the services of his long-time back up Jim Sorgi who is out another week with an injury. This means once Manning leaves the game Indianapolis will be primarily in the hands of rookie Curtis Painter, fresh out of Purdue, and another rookie or two. This is just one giant bad spot for Indianapolis who will work more to establish chemistry than to win.
Partly cloudy with an 80-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

5 Units

Rockies {J.Hammel} (-135) over Nationals {G.Mock}

7:05 PM -- Nationals Park
Colorado Rockies (67-53) -145 over WASHINGTON NATIONALS (43-77) Pitching for Colorado: RH Jason Hammel (7-7, 4.73) Pitching for Washington: RH Garrett Mock (2-4, 5.27) Rockies Trend Profile: Last 10: 7-3, Streak: Won 3, Road Record: 35-30, Against RHP: 47-35. Nationals Trend Profile: Last 10: 5-5, Streak: Lost 2, Home Record: 26-35, Against RHP: 34-59. Starting Time: 7:05 TV: Fox Sports Rocky Mountains, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network2 Comments: The Nationals may have a slight pitching edge ( Mock has an E.R.A. of 1.50 in his last two starts while Hammel is 2-3 with an E.R.A. of 6.65 in his last five starts) in this one but the bottom line says the Rockies are 8-0 against them this season and are hitting the cover off the baseball. My money says Colorado batting trumps Washington pitching in this one.
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing out to center field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 85.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:23 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Sam Clayton

**7-0 with 30 dime selections, No. 8 goes today!**

30 dime - SF/CIN Under 7.5 (LIST Cain and Harang)

As some of you know, I've been talking about a big Thursday play all week long. After I saw the opening total that Vegas set for this game, I immediately called up my local, logged into my online account and proceeded to hit it hard with both. And to be perfectly honest, this would probably still be a premium play even at 7. Don't get me wrong, I implore you to shop around for 7.5 and buy the hook if you must, but know full well that this line is a gift.

Thursday's morning matinee boasts two of baseball's worst offenses as the Giants and Reds rank 26th and 30th respectively in runs scored this season and Cincy is the worst hitting team in the Majors with a .239 average. The Giants have been able to stay in the thick of a pennant race because of the best team ERA in baseball and while the Reds are more centered in comparison to the rest of the league, one of their starters is certainly capable of keeping opposing hitters at bay. Lucky for us, each team will stroll out an ace-caliber pitcher Thursday and I'm taking full advantage. This game is going to be a full scale pitching battle and anyone who thinks otherwise is out of their damn mind.

Matt Cain (12-4, 2.49 ERA) gets the nod for the Giants and he has been absolutely sensational all season long. Cain has some of the sharpest stuff in baseball and his ability to avoid the big inning places him among the elite. He's holding opposing hitters to a .225 clip, he doesn't walk many hitters and his WHIP hovers around 1.15. Most runners that reach base on Cain usually don't make it very far and the majority find themselves stranded. Opposing Cain on the bump is Reds' ace Aaron Harang (6-14, 4.35), but don't let his win-loss total fool you, the guy can flat out deal. You have to factor in that Harang has lost two games by one run and a whopping five games by two runs. I hate to point the finger at Cincinnati's putrid offense, but that's the validity behind my reasoning. That's seven losses in games that were mostly low scoring that he wound up on the wrong side of. It's an excuse sure, but don't back off because of his 14 losses especially considering had he any offense behind him, those numbers wouldn't be so skewed.

Those that have been following my picks know that I'm a strong advocate of important intangibles when I see them. And today I actually have a couple. In games that Matt Cain has started this season, the under has cashed 14 of 23 times. For Harang, it's sailed under 16 of 24 times. Delving deeper, 9 of Cain's last 11 starts have gone south of 7.5 runs and the same can be said for 4 of Harang's last 6 starts. Also, Thursday's game is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET, which means both clubs have to wake up extremely early to get to the ballpark by 9 a.m. It gets better though as both teams have to travel immediately after for their weekend series as the Giants fly to Denver and Cincinnati heads to Pittsburgh. Trust me when I say that team motivation isn't at its highest point on travel days, especially games this early. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a couple reserves get some spot starts so that regulars can rest up. I expect a low scoring affair as both starters have downright nasty stuff and they shouldn't have many problems keeping their struggling offensive opponents off the scoreboard.

Play the UNDER.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:35 PM

Re: 8-20-09

FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball

50* Play Detroit (-150) over Seattle (MLB)

Detroit has won 13 of the last 17 home games vs. AL West Division Opponents and they have also won 17 of the last 22 day home games. Jarrod Washburn has won 8 of the last 11 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has an ERA of 2.89 in all home games this season.

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50* Play Philadelphia (-180) over Arizona (MLB)

Arizona has lost 4 consecutive games and they have also lost 13 of the last 15 road games as an underdog of +175 to +200. Doug Davis has lost 7 of the last 8 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 21 of the last 27 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Philadelphia has won 7 of the last 8 games.

**Mr. IWS** · 08-20-2009, 01:47 PM

Re: 8-20-09

Anthony Redd

Thursday's Card
10 Dime Patriots