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Take the Phillies on the run line at the Mets tonight with with J.A. Happ on the mound for Philadelphia. Happ has been incredible since joining the Phillies, going 9-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, including a 4-1 record with a 1.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 9 road starts. He'll be opposed tonight by the Mets' Tim Redding,who is just 1-3 in 9 starts this season with a 6.99 ERA and 1.57 WHIP (the Mets are 3-6 in his 9 starts). The Phillies have played extremely well on the road this season at 37-21 and have won 5 of their last 7, while the Mets have dropped 4 of their 7. New York stole game one of this series from Philly last night, but look for the Phillies to bounce back big over the Mets Saturday.
Building on last week’s underdog winner on the Falcons plus the points I look to make it two straight huge preseason winners thanks to the Seahawks taking care of business at home.
The Seahawks with their outright win over the Chargers continued to show they are a very good preseason team as they have covered their last 7 preseason games while winning 6 of 7 straight up. So thanks to playing at home and extending the playing time for the first team I see Seattle making it 8 straight covers in August.
Denver lost at San Francisco last week, but the Broncos did cover as the underdog despite an awful game from Orton. Well due to playing on the road for the second straight week, I look for the Broncos to be a bit flat as they come up short tonight in Seattle.
Simple, home teams have a huge advantage in the preseason and that fact will not change as I fully expect for Seattle to roll over a Denver team that is not very good.
All Seattle minus the points!
100? N.Y. Yankees (Burnett) -1 ½ Runs over Boston (Tazawa)
Bonus winner on the Yankees 20-11 last night I look for New York to post yet another lopsided win today.
Now having won the last 5 series meeting I more than expect for the Yankees to make it six in a row over the Red Sox today. Paving the way for New York today will be the fact they have won 26 of their last 34 games since the break and Burnett who was dominate in his last start against Boston throwing 7 2-3 scoreless innings to help New York post a 2-0 win over Beckett a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, countering for the Red Sox will be Tazawa who is fresh off a five inning 10 hit and 4 earned runs last start out the righty is in for a long day as he makes just his third start against the hottest team in all of baseball.
Simple, given the Yankees huge win last night and their advantage on the mound I expect yet another easy series win for New York this afternoon.
5 Unit Play. Take Chicago Sky -3 over the Detroit Shock (Saturday @ 8pm est). It seems we are on a nice groove in the wnba. Let's hope it continues and continue to focus. These two teams meet for the second time this year. The first time, the Shock won 64-58 at home but the Sky were 7.5 dogs and they covered the spread. The game went well under as the posted total was 150. The Sky are 13-13 and are looking to secure playoff seating currently. While the Conn Sun are 13-12, Atlanta is 14-11 and Indiana is 19-6. The Sky are also tied with Washington who is 13-13 as well in the East. It seems that Detroit could have packed it in for the season as they have lost their last 3. More importantly, this is a pivotal game for the Sky who come off a loss to Phoenix at home. And, the Sky have yet to lose back to back games during this playoff stretch over their last 8 games where they are 6-2 ATS during that span. I like the Sky coming off a loss, having revenge here in a game that they certainly could use to propel them to 14 wins in the East. This team is the #1 team in the league in 3 point field goals percentage at 41.5% and 3rd in the league in field goal % overall at 44.6. I think this is a good opportunity for us to step out here and pick up 5 units as we have made some solid ground over the past 2 weeks. The Shock are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against the Eastern Conference and the Sky are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss.
3 Unit Play. #958 Take Houston +110 over Arizona (Saturday 8/22 7:05 PM)
Arizona has dropped a season-high six straight games and can't seem to catch a break. Tonight we hope the D-Backs again can’t catch a break and the Astros win another game at home. Houston won two of three meetings with Arizona from June 12-14 at Chase Field. Houston is 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
5 Unit Play. #965 Take St. Louis –1 ½ -120 over San Diego (Saturday 8/22 10:05 PM)
The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Padres and tonight should feel good about themselves with Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter seeks a sixth straight winning start tonight and the way Carpenter pitched against the Dodgers he should have no trouble against San Diego. St. Louis is 6-0 following a SU loss and the Padres are 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog.
2 Unit Play. #972 Take Chicago White Sox –1 ½ +105 over Baltimore (Saturday 8/22 7:05 PM)
We tried the White Sox last night on the run-line and failed so let’s roll the dice again. The White Sox are 4-0 following a SU loss and the Sox are also 11-2 when playing on Saturday’s.
4 units Boston +130 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.2)
3 units UNDER 10.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The oddsmakers have a forced hand here after everyone watched these teams put up 31 runs last night, so this one is padded. You know the Red Sox are going to take last night's debacle personally, and come out with a much better resolve for this one. The Red Sox have been devastating at home vs. right-hand pitching, where they have run the count to 90-41 in their last 131 at Fenway. Overall they are now 14-3 against a team with a winning record playing them at Fenway as well. Burnett has pitched well enough to see his last eight starts with a total set between 9-10.5 all go UNDER, and the Sox have played to a 20-7-1 mark in their last 28 as a dog, and under to the tune of 30-13-2 when the opponent scored five or more in their last game. The Yankees haven't exactly been feasting at Fenway, as they are just 1-7 in their last eight played here. I like the Red Sox and the UNDER here.
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay
5 units Tampa Bay -170 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.9)
While the gap between these teams in the standings is minimal, when you consider the venue, the gap is substantial. The Rangers are 55-115 in their last 170 as a dog of +151 to +200. They have a losing record on the road this season, while Tampa Bay has been fielding a wrecking crew in Tampa at 85-35 in their last 120 as a home favorite. Jump that line up to -151 to -200 and they go to a solid 49-11! So we are really looking at 49-11 vs. 55-115 when you get right down to it. I don't see the odds here looking anything close to what those numbers say, especially with Tampa having their ace on the mound in Matt Garza who has had a 3.21 and 2.89 ERA at home the past two seasons. The Rangers have found the wins difficult to come by in Tampa as they have dropped six of their last seven here. I like Tampa in this one.
Game: Texas at Tampa Bay
3 units Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
You don't have to look long and hard to find value here, as Tampa is in their best role as a chunky chalk, which is the Rangers worst role - as a chunky dog. The Rays are 49-11 as a favorite from -151 to -200, while the Rangers are just 55-115 in the same size role as a dog. When you consider that Garza is the Rays' ace, and the Rangers are just 1-7 in their last eight played in Tampa, the runline with its plus odds, becomes a very favorable and value-laden proposition. I'll also go with Tampa on the runline in this one.
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