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Re: 8-23-09
Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton Sunday's MLB winners ... 20 Dime: DODGERS (Billingsley) on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) over Cubs (Dempster) ... NOTE: Billingsley (Los Angeles) and Dempster (Chicago) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
5 Dime: Brewers-Nationals OVER the total ... NOTE: Both Parra (Milwaukee) and Stammen (Washington) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
Dodgers (-1 ½ runs)
Here’s what this play comes down to: The Chicago Cubs simply cannot hit a lick, and now they’re facing an All-Star pitcher in Chad Billingsley who is very much back on his game after suffering through a rough patch. So if the Dodgers can score at least three runs today, I honestly don’t see how we don’t cash this one.
How bad is Chicago’s offense? Well, it has scored a grand total of three runs in losing the first three games of this four-game series at Dodger Stadium (two of them being multi-run losses). The Cubs have a whopping three extra-base hits in the series (and one of those was a fluke double yesterday when L.A.’s Matt Kemp lost a pop fly in the sun). And they’re 2-for-20 with runners in scoring position in this series.
Yesterday, Chicago was shut down by a journeyman knuckleballer making just the second start of his career (both this week), one day after being one-hit by Randy Wolf and two Dodgers relievers.
Now the Cubs, who have scored three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games, have to face the resurgent Billingsley. The big right-hander stumbled over a 3½-week, four-start stretch last month. But so far in August, he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three starts. In four career starts against the Cubs (including a 10-3 win in Game 1 of the N.L. Division Series last October at Wrigley Field), Billingsley has allowed a total of nine runs in 24 2/3 innings (3.28 ERA). What’s more, of L.A.’s 16 wins behind their ace in 2009, 14 have been by more than one run!
As for Billingsley’s counterpart today, Chicago’s Ryan Dempster, here’s all you need to know: He lost 6-3 to rookie pitcher in San Diego on Tuesday; he’s given up 10 runs in 14 innings in his last two starts (losing to the Padres and 6-1 to the Phillies); and Chicago is 7-15 in his 22 starts this season, including 2-11 on the road.
Bottom line: Chicago is 1-5 on its current road trip to San Diego and Los Angeles, and in those five losses, Lou Pineilla’s bunch has produced a grand total of seven runs against the following starting pitchers: Kevin Correia, Cesar Carillo, Jeff Weaver, Randy Wolf and Charlie Haeger. Do you REALLY think those bats are going to come to life against Billingsley today? Not a chance! Play the Dodgers on the run line, and don’t be surprised if big hitters Andre Either, James Loney and Russell Martin – all of whom got the day off yesterday – tee off on Dempster and push Billingsley to an easy win.
Brewers-Nationals OVER the total
Milwaukee and Washington have faced each other six times this year, all in the last month. The combined run totals in those five games: 20, 11, 12, 10, 10 and 20. Surprise, surprise, all six jumped OVER the total.
What makes me think that trend will continue today? Five words: Manny Parra and Craig Stammen. These are your starting pitchers in this contest. Here are Parra’s numbers for Milwaukee: 6.33 ERA and 1.82 WHIP overall, 6.93 ERA and 1.85 WHIP on the road, and just one quality start in the southpaw’s last six trips to the mound (with all five non-quality outings coming in games that went OVER the total, including a 7-5 Brewers home win on July 29).
As for Stammen, he’s got a 5.13 ERA overall, a 6.28 ERA at home and a 6.92 ERA in three day starts. Yes, the Washington right-hander is coming off two decent outings (two runs allowed in each start against the Rockies and Braves), but before that, he had a three-start stretch in which he gave up 17 runs (16 earned) in 9 1/3 innings – including a five-run, 4 2/3-inning effort on July 27 at the Brewers in which the Nationals rallied for a 14-6 victory.
Today, these pitchers will be facing to very hot offenses with two very shaky bullpens behind them. To wit: In a 10-game stretch prior to Saturday’s 11-9 shootout won by Milwaukee, the Brewers were hitting .306 as a team, including .298 against right-handers, with their relievers posting a 5.76 ERA, while the Nats were hitting .302 against left-handed pitching with a 5.09 bullpen ERA.
Finally, check out these trends; The Brewers are on OVER streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-0 against N.L. East teams, 11-4 as a favorite, 18-6-1 when the posted total is at 9 runs or more, 7-2 when Parra starts on the road and 7-1 when he starts on Sunday. For Washington, the OVER is 10-3-1 in its last 14 games against the N.L. East and 6-2 in its last eight as an underdog. Throw in the fact that we’ve got a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate – the OVER has hit in Chuck Meriwether’s last four games when working the dish – and we’re set up for another double-digit Brewers-Nationals shootout. Take the OVER.
Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton Sunday's MLB winners ... 20 Dime: DODGERS (Billingsley) on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) over Cubs (Dempster) ... NOTE: Billingsley (Los Angeles) and Dempster (Chicago) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
5 Dime: Brewers-Nationals OVER the total ... NOTE: Both Parra (Milwaukee) and Stammen (Washington) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
Dodgers (-1 ½ runs)
Here’s what this play comes down to: The Chicago Cubs simply cannot hit a lick, and now they’re facing an All-Star pitcher in Chad Billingsley who is very much back on his game after suffering through a rough patch. So if the Dodgers can score at least three runs today, I honestly don’t see how we don’t cash this one.
How bad is Chicago’s offense? Well, it has scored a grand total of three runs in losing the first three games of this four-game series at Dodger Stadium (two of them being multi-run losses). The Cubs have a whopping three extra-base hits in the series (and one of those was a fluke double yesterday when L.A.’s Matt Kemp lost a pop fly in the sun). And they’re 2-for-20 with runners in scoring position in this series.
Yesterday, Chicago was shut down by a journeyman knuckleballer making just the second start of his career (both this week), one day after being one-hit by Randy Wolf and two Dodgers relievers.
Now the Cubs, who have scored three runs or fewer in six of their last seven games, have to face the resurgent Billingsley. The big right-hander stumbled over a 3½-week, four-start stretch last month. But so far in August, he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three starts. In four career starts against the Cubs (including a 10-3 win in Game 1 of the N.L. Division Series last October at Wrigley Field), Billingsley has allowed a total of nine runs in 24 2/3 innings (3.28 ERA). What’s more, of L.A.’s 16 wins behind their ace in 2009, 14 have been by more than one run!
As for Billingsley’s counterpart today, Chicago’s Ryan Dempster, here’s all you need to know: He lost 6-3 to rookie pitcher in San Diego on Tuesday; he’s given up 10 runs in 14 innings in his last two starts (losing to the Padres and 6-1 to the Phillies); and Chicago is 7-15 in his 22 starts this season, including 2-11 on the road.
Bottom line: Chicago is 1-5 on its current road trip to San Diego and Los Angeles, and in those five losses, Lou Pineilla’s bunch has produced a grand total of seven runs against the following starting pitchers: Kevin Correia, Cesar Carillo, Jeff Weaver, Randy Wolf and Charlie Haeger. Do you REALLY think those bats are going to come to life against Billingsley today? Not a chance! Play the Dodgers on the run line, and don’t be surprised if big hitters Andre Either, James Loney and Russell Martin – all of whom got the day off yesterday – tee off on Dempster and push Billingsley to an easy win.
Brewers-Nationals OVER the total
Milwaukee and Washington have faced each other six times this year, all in the last month. The combined run totals in those five games: 20, 11, 12, 10, 10 and 20. Surprise, surprise, all six jumped OVER the total.
What makes me think that trend will continue today? Five words: Manny Parra and Craig Stammen. These are your starting pitchers in this contest. Here are Parra’s numbers for Milwaukee: 6.33 ERA and 1.82 WHIP overall, 6.93 ERA and 1.85 WHIP on the road, and just one quality start in the southpaw’s last six trips to the mound (with all five non-quality outings coming in games that went OVER the total, including a 7-5 Brewers home win on July 29).
As for Stammen, he’s got a 5.13 ERA overall, a 6.28 ERA at home and a 6.92 ERA in three day starts. Yes, the Washington right-hander is coming off two decent outings (two runs allowed in each start against the Rockies and Braves), but before that, he had a three-start stretch in which he gave up 17 runs (16 earned) in 9 1/3 innings – including a five-run, 4 2/3-inning effort on July 27 at the Brewers in which the Nationals rallied for a 14-6 victory.
Today, these pitchers will be facing to very hot offenses with two very shaky bullpens behind them. To wit: In a 10-game stretch prior to Saturday’s 11-9 shootout won by Milwaukee, the Brewers were hitting .306 as a team, including .298 against right-handers, with their relievers posting a 5.76 ERA, while the Nats were hitting .302 against left-handed pitching with a 5.09 bullpen ERA.
Finally, check out these trends; The Brewers are on OVER streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-0 against N.L. East teams, 11-4 as a favorite, 18-6-1 when the posted total is at 9 runs or more, 7-2 when Parra starts on the road and 7-1 when he starts on Sunday. For Washington, the OVER is 10-3-1 in its last 14 games against the N.L. East and 6-2 in its last eight as an underdog. Throw in the fact that we’ve got a hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate – the OVER has hit in Chuck Meriwether’s last four games when working the dish – and we’re set up for another double-digit Brewers-Nationals shootout. Take the OVER.
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