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Re: 8-26-09
Craig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
40 DIME ---- DODGERS (With Wolf and Fogg as listed pitchers)
While everyone else in the world is falling in love with the Rockies, I'm cautiously handicapping the numbers to make sure I, too, don't fall prey to this Colorado love-fest. Look, I'm not doubting what they've done recently and the amazing comeback they have made in the NL West, but let's be real... this type of comeback takes its toll and it's eventually going to slow down. This team has won 27 of their last 37 games to pull within two games of the Dodgers in the West, and with two more wins vs. their rival they will be tied heading into their weekend series at San Francisco. As quickly as they've climbed back into this race they can just as quickly fall six or seven games out. How many times do you see a team put together this type of magical run, only to get within a few games of the division lead before they come back to earth? It's just too much to ask of any team to expend this type of energy and consistency in any sport for as long as they have... and it would be crazy to think they can keep it up much longer.
Remember, we're talking about grown men, not machines. They will eventually break down and start playing "regular baseball". Look at the Yankees --- they went on an incredible tear right after the All-Star Break but have recently come back to "normalcy" and have maintained a 6-7 game lead over the Red Sox for about two weeks now. Expect the same from Colorado, starting tonight. No longer can they continue to win games in dramatic fashion in the 9th inning. Eventually the well will dry up and they'll return to being a normal baseball team. And what better time for that to happen than with a season-long relief pitcher like Josh Fogg? Fogg hasn't started a game all season, but has thrown out of the bullpen since May 25th and that seems to be the best role for him.
If you look at his career (with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and Colorado), not one time this decade has his season ERA been below 4.35 and, in fact, he's struggled more recently than he did early in his career. Last season, Fogg's ERA was 7.58... the season before it was 5.00. Bottom line: Fogg is lucky to still have a job, and going from the bullpen to the rotation in a game like this doesn't make a lot of sense to me. His career vs. Los Angeles (3-5, 4.38 ERA) has been decent, I guess, but nothing that scares me into taking the Rockies just because they are hot. The Dodgers have hit .288 vs. Fogg in 10 career starts and look to carry that over to tonight.
Randy Wolf starts for the Dodgers, bringing in a 3.34 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, not to mention a 4-2 career record against the Rockies. Wolf has won his last three starts while the Dodgers were winners in his last four, not to mention his strikeout total has gotten better (15 in last two games). Wolf is also know to be a better, more dominant pitcher on the road (2.91 ERA) and loves to pitch under pressure. Folks, it doesn't get any more pressure-packed than this. If the Dodgers win, they go back up 3 games in the West. Lose and you are in danger of falling into a first place tie. Dodgers pull this one out with timely hitting and better starting pitching.
Craig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
40 DIME ---- DODGERS (With Wolf and Fogg as listed pitchers)
While everyone else in the world is falling in love with the Rockies, I'm cautiously handicapping the numbers to make sure I, too, don't fall prey to this Colorado love-fest. Look, I'm not doubting what they've done recently and the amazing comeback they have made in the NL West, but let's be real... this type of comeback takes its toll and it's eventually going to slow down. This team has won 27 of their last 37 games to pull within two games of the Dodgers in the West, and with two more wins vs. their rival they will be tied heading into their weekend series at San Francisco. As quickly as they've climbed back into this race they can just as quickly fall six or seven games out. How many times do you see a team put together this type of magical run, only to get within a few games of the division lead before they come back to earth? It's just too much to ask of any team to expend this type of energy and consistency in any sport for as long as they have... and it would be crazy to think they can keep it up much longer.
Remember, we're talking about grown men, not machines. They will eventually break down and start playing "regular baseball". Look at the Yankees --- they went on an incredible tear right after the All-Star Break but have recently come back to "normalcy" and have maintained a 6-7 game lead over the Red Sox for about two weeks now. Expect the same from Colorado, starting tonight. No longer can they continue to win games in dramatic fashion in the 9th inning. Eventually the well will dry up and they'll return to being a normal baseball team. And what better time for that to happen than with a season-long relief pitcher like Josh Fogg? Fogg hasn't started a game all season, but has thrown out of the bullpen since May 25th and that seems to be the best role for him.
If you look at his career (with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and Colorado), not one time this decade has his season ERA been below 4.35 and, in fact, he's struggled more recently than he did early in his career. Last season, Fogg's ERA was 7.58... the season before it was 5.00. Bottom line: Fogg is lucky to still have a job, and going from the bullpen to the rotation in a game like this doesn't make a lot of sense to me. His career vs. Los Angeles (3-5, 4.38 ERA) has been decent, I guess, but nothing that scares me into taking the Rockies just because they are hot. The Dodgers have hit .288 vs. Fogg in 10 career starts and look to carry that over to tonight.
Randy Wolf starts for the Dodgers, bringing in a 3.34 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, not to mention a 4-2 career record against the Rockies. Wolf has won his last three starts while the Dodgers were winners in his last four, not to mention his strikeout total has gotten better (15 in last two games). Wolf is also know to be a better, more dominant pitcher on the road (2.91 ERA) and loves to pitch under pressure. Folks, it doesn't get any more pressure-packed than this. If the Dodgers win, they go back up 3 games in the West. Lose and you are in danger of falling into a first place tie. Dodgers pull this one out with timely hitting and better starting pitching.
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