8-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Indian Cowboy

NFL Preseason GOY.

2 Unit Play. Take Over 38.5 between the Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 8pm est). This game will have a regular season game type atmosphere. Given the off-season hooplah and drama, both teams will get an early look as to how they have fared since the trade. Granted, it is way too early to tell which team has fared better overall. Only time will tell. Nevertheless, this is the only game that is slated for Sunday and certainly emotions will be high as Cutler faces his old team in his old stadium and Orton faces his old team who comes to visit. And, bear in mind that there are many coaches and executives who took part in this deal so emotions will be high and all involved will want to show their best. Someone who was not at their best in their last contest was Kyle Orton. Orton struggled terribly at Seattle throwing 1 touchdown but four interceptions as Denver fell short 13-27. Cutler played well for the most part against the Giants at home throwing for nearly 200 years and one touchdown with one interception. Given that Cutler faces his old team, Orton faces his old team, Orton comes off a miserable performance, and this is the only game on Sunday - a night game at that, I expect there to be plenty of offense on display. More importantly, I expect for all involved to go for the win despite this game meaning nothing in the regular season win count - but it goes a long way for early pride. I look for both teams to top 20 points as this game likely goes over.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

ATS Lock Club 9-6-2......+19.8 units

Chi Bears +2 1/2............3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Craig Davis
Craig Davis Sunday's Lineup 50 DIME ---- TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RAYS (With Niemann)

Despite scoring just one run in yesterday's 3-1 loss to David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays, I still believe the Tigers are the best play on the board today because it's not very often Justin Verlander loses at home... especially during the day. A few untimely errors cost the Tigers a chance to win yesterday's contest, but I'm not sure they were in the right frame of mind to get it done anyhow, scoring just one run late in the game. Today, I can guarantee you those same players who committed the errors are looking to make amends and get this team back on the winning track.

You see, the Tigers play much better at home and must win these types of games if they want to keep their lead in the AL Central. Detroit is 41-21 at home while the Rays are just 27-37 on the road, and it's not often the Tigers lose a game at home when the series is on the line. After winning game one but dropping game two, this is a pivotal rubber match that has a decided pitching advantage for the home team. The aforementioned Verlander is not only 7-2 at home with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, but he's also 6-2 during day game starts with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, not to mention the fact opponents are hitting just .185 against him.

Critics will point to his rather "average" August as a reason to stay away, but I believe he's just about to turn it around just as he did in 2007... a similar season to 2009. After struggling much of August, he turned it around in his last start of that month (Aug. 27th) was a major home win over the Yankees... 16-0. He pitched 7 shutout innings in the win and that catapulted him back to the top of his game. That's going to happen again this afternoon, starting with the Rays at home.

Verlander went on to allow just one earned run in each of his next three starts and finished the season with five wins in his last seven starts... and it started with that late August shutout win over the Yankees. We have all the makings of a complete game shutout for Verlander this afternoon, and although I won't go that far, I will say that Verlander is well overdue for one of these types of performances, and the fact that the Rays seem to be in a bit of an offensive slump right now only makes things better for our side. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 13 home games, 6 of their last 7 Sunday starts, and 21 of their last 28 game after the opponent scores two or less runs with Verlander on the hill.

Tampa counters with Jeff Niemann, and although his season ERA is a respectable 3.87, it's hard to ignore the fact that he appears to be slowing down, showing signs of fatigue. After a stretch of games in which he pitched seven or more innings allowing just one or two runs, he's now on a run of four straight games going less than seven innings while allowing four or more earned runs in three of those four. His fastball has lost a little velocity and he's having some control problems with his breaking stuff, walking three runners in two his last three starts. Seriously, do you trust a guy like Niemann in a situation like this when each game becomes more and more like a playoff atmosphere? Or do you trust Verlander and his proven track record?

This one will be decided by the 7th inning. Tigers roll the Rays today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Sean Michaels
Sunday's Pick 25 DIME PLAY

Chicago Bears

Note: I want you to purchase insurance on this play. If you have Chicago at +2 1/2, buy up the half-point to +3 to insure you get a push should the Bears lose by a field goal.

If you have Chicago at +3, buy the additional half-point to move the line to +3 1/2, which would result in you getting the win should the Bears lose by three points.

If this line happens to drop to +2, there is no need to purchase any insurance, but it still remains Sunday's lone release.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Anthony Redd
Anthony Redd Sunday's Card 20 Dime Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's play 20 Dime -- TWINS (Baker) over Rangers (Millwood)

TWINS
NOTE: List only Baker as Minnesota's starting pitcher

Scott Baker (12-7, 4.47 ERA) easily has been the Twins' top starter over the past two months.

The right-hander is 10-1 since June 1, and has gone 6-0 with a 3.10 ERA over his last nine outings, with wins in his last three starts. He allowed one run and four hits in seven innings Monday in a 2-1 victory over Baltimore.

Baker also is 2-0 in two outings against the Rangers this season, giving up five runs and 15 hits while striking out 14 in 13 1/3 innings.

Texas starter Kevin Millwood (10-8, 3.63) has faded after a very strong first half of the season. He got his first win since July 20 on Tuesday despite giving up five runs on seven hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium.

Millwood has just two wins in his last nine starts, and he is 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 12 road starts this year.

The veteran right-hander allowed five runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to Minnesota on Aug. 19. That dropped Millwood's career record against the Twins to 0-7 with a 6.18 ERA in 11 starts.

With Millwood's miserable track record against Minnesota, and Baker's sharp performances over the past couple of months, I don't see Texas having much of a chance in this one. Take the Twins today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

ATS LOCK

3 Giants
3 Marlins

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Al DeMarco
Sunday's Play
5 Dime - Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) - 1 1/2 Runs over New York Mets (Figueroa)

Carlos Zambrano was awful against Washington on Tuesday in his first start since August 1, allowing a season-high eight runs in 4.1 innings. But that was, as noted, his first outing since being sidelined by a back injury, and it came against a good-hitting Washington team.

Today Chicago's less-than-stellar ace faces an injury-riddled New York lineup missing Wright, Reyes, Delgado, Beltran among others. No surprise New York has dropped nine of 11 entering the contest. And injuries haven't only wreaked havoc with the Mets' offense as Nelson Figueroa gets the spot start at Chicago because of injuries to Santana and Perez.

Figueroa is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in four career starts versus the Cubs.

Zambrano is 4-1 with a 3.76 career ERA in seven starts versus the Mets.

The Cubs, who have won two straight and four of six, are coming off an 11-4 rout of New York on Saturday. They've won four straight and 14 of 19 at Wrigley Field in the series.

Chicago's offense has come to life suddenly, plating 35 runs the past five games after scoring just six times in the previous four. With expectations of Zambrano returning to form, and New York scoring three runs or less in seven of its last 11 games, laying the 1 1/2 runs is worth the investment.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Kelso

10 units Bears +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Randall the Handle

Atlanta +1.23 over PHILADELPHIA PINNACLE

The Braves love playing here, as they’ve won seven of its last 10 games in Philly and they have a significant edge on the hill today. Jair Jurrjens will take the mound looking for another strong performance at Citizens Bank Park, where he has gone 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. Jurrjens is 10-8 overall with an impressive 2.91 ERA. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and no matter how you break it down this guy is impressive. Joe Blanton is pitching his heart out too and he’s allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts. How he does it is a big mystery because his stuff is average at best. Blanton’s strength lies in his ability to throw strikes, as he’s only walked 38 batters in 124 frames. He is constantly ahead in the count but these Braves are an aggressive team that will jump on those first pitches and not allow him to get ahead 0-2 or 1-2. The Braves have seen Blanton four times already this year and while Blanton’s numbers are pretty sweet overall, they’re not good against these visitors. In fact, the Braves are hitting a combined .311 off him and his ERA in those four games is 6.38. Facing the Braves for the fifth time this year and having little success, it’s very unlikely that he’ll have success here either. This wager is based on the starters, thus the five-inning wager. Play: Atlanta in the first five innings +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

Soccer

August 30, 2009 8:30am EST
Holland - Eredivisie
FEYENOORD +1.43 over FC Twente PINNACLE
Both teams have started the season on fire as they both share first place with 10 points form the first four games of the season. Feyenoord faltered a little last season, as they were marred with injuries to key players for much of the season. FC Twente on the other hand enjoyed a really good 2008/2009 campaign finishing in 2nd place earning them a chance to qualify for the Champions League this season; unfortunately they lost out to Sporting Lisbon. A new season with many new hopes for both clubs, as they will both be gunning for top spot in the wide open Eredivisie. The home team has won six of last seven matches in this series, which tells us home field plays a huge role here. Feyenoord, a traditionally strong Dutch club led by Canadian born Jonathan De Guzman will come out strong in this one signaling their intent and will sit alone in first place after 90 minutes. Play: FEYENOORD +1.43 (Risking 2 units).

August 30, 2009 11:00am EST
Spain - La Liga
Atletico Madrid +1.10 over MALAGA PINNACLE
A favorite indeed as Atletico should be one of the favorites to win the league in my opinion. They may very well possess the best one-two punch attack in the world let alone the league. Diego Forlan and Sergio Aguero are just sick! I witnessed these two guys dismantle Panathinaikos, a very good, well-respected team during the last qualifier of the Champions League. I cannot see Malaga’s back end coping with these two. Not only do they have Forlan, and Aguero, Atletico is full of firepower as they also have Maxi Rodriguez and Simao. This is a deep team attacking wise. They bring Reyes off the bench! Atletico do struggle defensively but defense won’t be needed in this one. Atletico Madrid is a force to be reckoned with as they score a glut of goals and shouldn’t have a problem here in Malaga. Play: Atletico Madrid +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

August 30, 2009 11:00am EST
Spain - La Liga
Villarreal +1.57 over OSASUNA PINNACLE
This is a price that is just way too good to pass on. Villarreal are a really good team that played in last season’s Champions League and did extremely well making it all the way to the quarter-final. They haven’t made many changes since then, as the core still remains and they are poised to make a strong run in Spain’s La Liga trying to get back to the Champions League. Osasuna are just happy with not getting relegated last season, as they did almost that. These teams tied both meetings last season and Villarreal will remember that and as a result should come out firing in this one. With new coach Ernesto Valverde, Villarreal will accept nothing less than three points to open their campaign in what is Europe’s finest league in my opinion. Villarreal gets off to a good start and takes this one easily. Play: Villarreal +1.57 (Risking 2 units).

August 30, 2009 2:45pm EST
Italy Serie A
Genoa +2.25 over ATALANTA PINNACLE
This is another great value selection. Genoa has made great strides the last couple of seasons, as last year they finished a surprising 5th place in Serie A earning a spot in the Europa League. They have gone out and spent some money in acquiring aging Argentine star Hernan Crespo bolstering their already good squad. Genoa is also deadly from set pieces as they showed this a week ago scoring from two free kicks in what was the game of the week against Roma in my opinion. Atalanta is an average squad that plays out the season without much expectation looking to surprise a few teams, maybe even pulling out an upset from time to time, however, Genoa has showed that are for real a season ago. Add in a couple of new additions and this team should get the result they are looking for. There will be no upset here as Genoa wins consecutive matches. Play: Genoa +2.25 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Jim Feist's 5* Inner Circle High Heat Dominator!
08/30 01:10 PM PT / 4:10 PM ET

MLB (965) HOUSTON ASTROS at (966) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take: (966) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (5* Inner Circle)

Reason: Houston surprised a lot of people this year as they contended for the NL Central lead for a good part of the season. However, they have fallen back now and trail St Louis by 13 games in the division and have too many teams to climb over for the Wild Card. As for the Diamondbacks, well the good news is they are in the same division as the Padres so that means they are not in last place just yet. Both teams will toss their aces today as Wandy Rodriquez starts for the Astros and Dan Haren for the D'backs. Rodriquez is 12-8 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. Rodriguez got bombed for 10 earned runs on August 14th against the Brewers. However, if you toss that game out, he hasn't allowed more than one earned run since June 26th. There is a slight chance here that the Cubs will not start Rodriquez and save him for the Cubs. If that happens, we like our play on the D'backs even more. Still, Rodriquez and the Astros face Haren. Haren has a 2.73 ERA this season. Haren typically struggles in the 2nd half of the season, but is coming off a fine outing at San Francisco where he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. What we love about Haren is his control and KO to BB ratio. Not only does Haren have 173 K's on the season, but he has walked just 27 batters in 181 innings. Taking Haren you know you are in the game. Take the D'backs.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Jeff Benton Sunday's winners ...

10 Dime: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Phillies ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does not start, this play is VOID!

5 Dime: A's-Angels UNDER the total ... NOTE: Both John Lackey (Angels) and Brett Anderson (A's) must start this game, or this play is VOID!


Braves

Joe Blanton got the best of Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens two weeks ago in Georgia, beating him 3-2. And as I’ve said a few times recently, Blanton has been pitching his ass off lately, delivering nine straight quality starts and allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight outings and 15 of his last 16. So why fade the beefy right-hander tonight? Well, first and foremost, we’re getting value with Jurrjens.

Despite losing to Philadelphia on Aug 14, Jurrjens has been tremendous himself lately. He’s got a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts (including the loss to the Phillies), and he’s surrendered two earned runs or fewer and pitched at least six innings in seven of his last nine trips to the mound (including three of his last four starts on the road). Also, Jurrjens has been spectacular against this killer Phillies lineup all year, allowing a total of three runs (two earned, both on Aug. 14) in three starts covering 19 2/3 innings, good for a 0.92 ERA. And in three career starts in Philadelphia’s bandbox of a ballpark, Jurrjens has given up just two runs and 12 hits (no home runs) in 20 2/3 innings (0.87 ERA), with the Braves winning two of those games.

Now back to Blanton: Although he’s been dealing lately, the Phillies are just 2-3 in his last five starts. And prior to his strong start in Atlanta two weeks ago, Blanton had faced the Braves three times this year and given up 16 runs in 17 innings (8.47 ERA), with none of those three starts being quality efforts.

Yes, the Phillies have been playing tremendous baseball lately, and they’ve turned around what was once an awful home record. But the Braves aren’t a pushover. They’ve won five straight games as an underdog and six of their last eight on the road, and with last night's upset win over Cliff Lee in Phiadelphia, the Braves are now 11-5 in the last 16 meetings with the Phillies, including 7-3 in Philadelphia. Put it all together and I’ll take the plus money with Jurrjens and the visitors tonight.


A’s-Angels UNDER the total

The last time A’s lefty Brett Anderson matched up against the Angels’ John Lackey was back on July 19 in Oakland, and the two pitchers matched goose eggs for nine innings, with Los Angeles eventually pulling out a 1-0 victory in 10 innings. Anderson and Lackey combined to allow five hits and one walk in 17 shutout innings. Do I expect a duplicate performance from both pitchers today? That would be asking a lot! But I definitely think we’ll get a couple of quality starts from Anderson and Lackey and we’ll see another UNDER today.

For starters, Anderson has been a very underrated pitcher all season. The rookie has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, lowering his ERA from 5.74 to 4.35 during this stretch. Impressively, Anderson has contained some of the best offenses in the American League during this stretch, including the Red Sox (twice), Yankees (twice), Rays, Angels and Rangers. During this 12-start stretch for Anderson, there have been more than nine combined runs scored just four times, including his last two starts, which the A’s lost by scores of 3-2 and 4-2.

As for Lackey, his dominating July 19 performance in Oakland was hardly stunning. The guy has owned the A’s his entire career, going 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a .226 batting-average against in 27 starts covering 176 innings. The big right-hander has delivered a quality start 11 times in his last 12 outings against Oakland, giving up two earned runs or fewer in eight of those games (including one run or less in four of the last five). In this 12-start stretch for Lackey versus the A’s, the under is 9-2-1.

Some more under trends to consider: For the A’s, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 when Anderson faces A.L. West rivals and 7-2 when facing right-handed starters, while the under is 6-1 in the Angels’ last seven against left-handed starters, 5-1 in Lackey’s last six starts on Sunday and 12-3-1 when Lackey finishes up a four-game series. Finally, this has been a very low-scoring rivalry the last two-plus years when they meet in Southern California, with the under going 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in Anaheim (2-1 this weekend).

Oh, one more thing: Today’s scheduled home-plate umpire is Ted Barrett. The last 11 times he’s put on the mask, the under has hit 10 times. And the under is 8-1 the last nine times Barrett has worked behind the dish in an Angels game. Throw in two offenses that have cooled up considerably over the past two weeks, and we’ll confidently play this one UNDER the inflated posted price.

Bought and confirmed, GL guys!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Scott Delaney
Sunday ...
5-Dime Chicago Bears - analysis by 1 p.m. eastern

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 8-30-09

Tony Weston
SUNDAY'S PLAYS

20 Dime Bears


5 Dime Bears-Broncos Over


Bears at Broncos
BEARS - It’s the game many people have been waiting for. And while traded quarterback Jay Cutler will downplay his return to Denver, this is his chance to get back at the team that he felt wronged by.

Cutler will lead his new team to a cover tonight as it flirts with the outright victory as about a 2 1/2 point underdog.

So far this preseason the Broncos have not won a game SU, but are 1-1 ATS. However, the Broncos barely covered in their first preseason game, losing 17-16 as a 1 1/2 point underdog at San Francisco.

In their second game, however, they got beat up 27-13 as a 3-point underdog at the Seahawks. Including that non-cover, the Broncos have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 preseason games and are just 1-4 SU in that stretch.

Now they have to deal with a Bears team that was impressive last week at home as a 3-point favorite, beating the Giants 17-3. In that game Cutler finished 8 of 13 for 121 yards, throwing a touchdown and no interceptions. Tonight, Cutler is expected to play the entire first half and possibly into the third quarter.

Cutler will be playing to make a point against his former team as he leads his team to a cover.





Bears-Broncos Total
OVER - The Total for tonight’s game is set at around 38 points and the Bears and Broncos will definitely go Over that number.

Coming into this game the Over has gone 4-1 in Chicago’s last five road preseason games, including its only roadie this August where the Bears and Bills combined for 47 points, going well over the 35 point Total.

Going back a little further, the Bears have seen the Over come in 7 of their last 10 games overall in the preseason.

On the other side, the Broncos have seen the Over come in 3 of their last 4 preseason games and have seen it go 12-7 their last 19 games in August.

These teams will score in bunches as they play Over the Total.