9-5-09

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 07:01 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Ness
25*GOY UTEP
20*Perfect Storm Auburn
Oddsmaker's Error Wake Forest
Insider Illinois

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 07:02 AM

Re: 9-5-09

PPP Gavazzi

5* TEXAS AM

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 07:02 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-09
Mississippi was one of the nation's top 5 teams at the end of last season and the only team to beat National Champion Florida, doing so on the road. All 4 of the Rebels' losses last season were by 7 points or less (they were 2-4 in close games) and this season they are once again rated in my top-5 teams (#5).

Mississippi's offense is led by junior quarterback Jevan Snead, who barely lost out to Colt McCoy for the starting spot at Texas a few years ago before transferring to Ole Miss. Snead has a great arm and can get the ball down the field, which helped him average 8.4 yards per pass attempt despite only completing 56% of his passes. Snead did have some problems with interceptions early in the season, throwing 7 in his first 4 games and 4 in the loss to Vanderbilt, but he never threw more than 1 pick the rest of the season and totaled just 6 interceptions in his final 9 games. Snead may be improved this season, but losing big play receiver Mike Wallace (20.1 yards per catch) and probably facing more pressure without left tackle Michael Oher (1st round NFL draft pick) should result in a drop of about 0.5 yards per pass play this season. Losing Oher will probably affect the rushing numbers a bit too, but Ole Miss should still be a better than average running team and I rate the Rebels' offense at 0.8 yards per play better than average after rating at +1.0 yppl last season.

Mississippi's defense was pretty good early in the season, but the Rebels became great defensively when pass rushing star DE Greg Hardy joined the lineup in game 4 after missing the first 3 games. Hardy also missed games against Arkansas and Auburn in which the defense didn't perform as well, but the Mississippi D was very good in the 8 games that Hardy played rating at 1.2 yppl better than average. The Rebels were only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively in the 5 games that Hardy missed and the sack totals were night and day. Mississippi averaged 1.6 sacks in 5 games without Hardy and 3.8 sacks per game with him and Hardy should enjoy a monster year this season if he doesn't get hurt. The Rebels do lose 1st round NFL draft choice Peria Jerry, who recorded 7 sacks and 11 other tackles for loss. Those are great numbers for a defensive tackle, but Mississippi is so loaded on the defensive line again this season that Hardy probably won't start. The Rebels return starters at the other 3 positions on the defensive line and former top recruit Jerrell Powe finally appears ready to dominate after getting in shape and dominating during the off season. The linebacking corps and the secondary are also loaded with talent and Ole Miss looks to have one of the best defensive teams in the nation and could be just as good as they were in the 8 games that Hardy played in last season.

Memphis has made it a bowl game the last two years despite being a bad team. Last season the Tigers were decent offensively, averaging 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but they were once again horrible on defense. Memphis surrendered 6.1 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. Memphis as an even worse 1.4 yppl worse than average defensively in 2007 and 1.0 yppl worse than average in 2006, so this is not a problem that is getting solved despite having 8 starters returning on that side of the ball in each of the last two years. This season 7 starters return on the defense, but one of them is not star DT Clinton McDonald, who earned 1st Team All-CUSA honors despite missing 3 1/2 games last season (he had 7 sacks and was also drafted by the Bengals). Memphis was even worse defensively without McDonald last season (-1.3 yppl) and they could be worse defensively this season now that he is gone. The Tigers do have the makings of a good defensive back 7, however, so the pass defense should be much improved while the run defense continues to struggle. I'll rate Memphis at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively this season but there is a good chance they could be just as bad.

The Tigers' offense looks like it could be decent again, as quarterback Arkelon Hall returns along with top RB Curtis Steele (1233 yards at 5.6 ypr) and some potentially game breaking receivers. The problem is a rebuilt offensive line that returns just 1 starter, so I don't expect the rushing attack to be quite as good. Hall may face more pressure this season, but he should be improved and his receiving corps is better, so the passing numbers should be solid once again. Overall, the Tigers should be about average offensively once again this season, but there is potential for them to be better if the receivers can reach their potential and the rebuilt line holds up.

I don't expect the Memphis line to hold up well against Mississippi's dominating defensive line in this game and Hall won't have enough time to find his fast set of wide receivers. On the other side of the ball, Jevon Snead and the rest of the offense should have another field day moving the ball on a bad Memphis defense, much like they did last year in racking up 7.4 yards per play. Memphis gained 5.5 yppl in last year's 24-41 loss, but the Rebels were without their two best defensive players in that game as Hardy and Jerry were both out and Mississippi wasn't much better than average defensively in 5 games without Hardy. Memphis this year will face a dominating Ole Miss defense and the Tigers didn't perform well against good defensive teams last season, gaining 183 at 3.2 yppl against ECU, 305 at 4.2 yppl against UCF, and just 238 at 3.7 yppl in their bowl loss to USF. My ratings favor Mississippi by 25 1/2 points in this game and the Rebels also apply to a 94-53-3 ATS week 1 situation. I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.

Strong Opinion
Missouri 30 Illinois (-6.5) 31 (at St. Louis)
12:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
Illinois was a better team from the line of scrimmage last season than they were in the win-loss column, going just 4-7 against FBS foes despite out-gaining those teams 6.2 yards per play to 5.3 yppl. Quarterback Juice Williams had a very good season overall, but he threw too many interceptions (16) and the defense managed to pick off only 6 passes all season. The Illini are loaded offensively with Williams coming back along with star WR Arrelious Benn and most of the other skill players. The line looks decent and I expect Illinois to be even better offensively in 2009 after ranking 15th in compensated offense in 2008.

The defense was better than average on a national scale last season, but I don't think they'll be quite as good this season without stars CB Vontae Davis, DE Will Davis and LB Brit Miller. There is some talent and the Illini should be solid against the run, but the pass rush is a potential issue and I expect only mediocre pass defense numbers this season.

Special teams was a big issue with Illinois last season but there is too much talent in the return game to be as bad as they were in 2008, although I still think they'll be worse than average given that the Illini have been worse than average in special teams in 3 of coach Ron Zook's 4 seasons as head coach. Illinois should be bowl bound after last year's disappointing 5-7 season and their is potential for them to be near the top of the Big 10 standings with only one tough conference road game (Ohio State) and with most of their games against other good teams coming at home (Penn State, Michigan State).

Missouri was a very good team last season, rating at 1.6 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense while having very good special teams. The Tigers will enter the 2009 season without star quarterback Chase Daniel, without 1st round NFL draft choice WR Jeremy Maclin, and without All-American TE Chase Coffman. There is no way that the Tigers can match last season's great offensive numbers, but they'll still be pretty good. With Daniel at quarterback the Tigers went from average offensively in 2005, to +0.6 yppl in 2006, to +1.0 yppl in 2007 and then to +1.6 yppl last season. New quarterback Blaine Gabbert is considered more of a pro prospect than Daniel ever was and he's looked good in 3 scrimmages, completing 74% of his passes for a solid 7.4 yards per attempt with just 1 interception on 57 passes. Even with the good showing by Gabbert, I expect Missouri to go back the +0.6 yppl level this season but they certainly could be better if Gabbert is as advertised. The rushing attack should continue to be very good with Derrick Washington returning after running for 1036 yards at 5.9 ypr last season, but I don't expect them to match last year's overall rushing numbers (0.7 yards per rushing play better than average) without the contributions of Maclin's 293 yards at 7.3 ypr. Backup De'Von Moore looks promising after averaging 5.6 ypr on 41 carries as a freshman last season and the offensive line is regarded as better than last year's group with highly touted RT Dan Hoch ready to step into the starting lineup after serving as a backup last season. The big drop in the offense will be in the passing numbers, but I still expect Gabbert and a talented group of up and coming receivers to perform at a better than average level with a lot of potential upside. The Tigers probably won't be as explosive offensively this season but they should be good.

Defensively the Tigers have been consistently good in recent years, rating at 0.5 yppl better than average in 2006, 0.5 yppl better than average in 2007, and 0.4 yppl better than average last season. Last year's numbers may have looked bad (424 yards per game allowed), but that's because the pace of Missouri's games was fast (77 plays per game on defense) and their opponents were very good offensively. The 5.5 yppl that the Tigers allowed came against teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Only 4 starters return, but one of them is All-American LB Sean Weatherspoon, who was credited with 18.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage while defending 10 passes. The defense will regress a bit, as I don't see Weatherspoon getting much better than last year, but the Tigers still figure to be better than average defensively and the coaching are very enthused about the quality and depth along the defensive line. I'll rate Missouri's defense at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season.

Missouri lost a lot of star power on offense, but coach Gary Pinkel has done a great job of recruiting in recent years so the cupboard is hardly bare and the Tigers appear to be underrated heading into this season. My ratings favor the Illini by just 1 point and the line opened at Illinois by 3 points and is now up to 6 1/2 or 7 points. Even if the odds makers were correct in making the Illini a 3 point favorite there is still plenty of line value in taking Missouri at +7. However, there is also a lot of variance because it's tough to know exactly how good Missouri's new quarterback is going to be (although I think he'll be good). I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I'd take the Tigers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 or more.

Strong Opinion
Cincinnati 27 RUTGERS (-6.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 07-Sep-09
Cincinnati only out-scored their 13 FBS opponents by an average of 3.6 points last season, yet the Bearcats were 10-3 in those games thanks to winning all 5 of their games that were decided by 7 points or less. Cincy probably won't come close to 10 wins this season with just 1 returning starter on defense but a healthy QB Tony Pike and a talented group of receivers should keep the Bearcats in the race for the Big East title.

Pike took over at quarterback after Dustin Grutza was injured in game 2 against Oklahoma and then suffered a broken arm a couple of games later. Pike returned at mid-season with a cast on his broken left arm and played pretty well - averaging 6.9 yards per pass in his 10 starts against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Pike's numbers should be a bit better this year with star WR Mardy Gilyard returning for his senior season. The sub-par rushing attack should improve with speedy sophomore Isaiah Pead (6.5 ypr on just 30 carries last season) getting more touches and the other top backs returning with him. Overall, Cincinnati's offense should improve significantly from a unit that had to use 4 quarterbacks last season due to injury.

The Cincinnati defense was very good in 2008, rating at 0.8 yards per play better than average while being good against both the run and the pass. That will change this season, as just 1 starter returns from that veteran crew. The Bearcats still have decent talent along the defense, but they will go from very good (17th in my ratings in 2008) to near the middle of the pack defensively this season.

One advantage that Cincinnati has is their special teams, which I rated as 3rd best in the nation last season. Outstanding kick returner Gilyard is back after averaging 27.6 yards per kick off return (with 2 TD's), but the Bearcats aren't going to lead the nation is net punting again this season without star punter Kevin Huber. Cincy will still have an edge in special teams on most teams and they'll be a solid team unless the rebuilt defense is considerably worse than expected.

Rutgers shrugged off a sluggish start on offense last season (13.2 points per game in their first 6 games against FBS foes) and scored 43.3 points per game over their last 6 contests with 4 year starting quarterback Mike Teel airing it out to big play receivers Kenny Britt, Tim Brown, and Tiquan Underwood. Overall, the Knights finished the season with an average of 28.3 points and 6.4 yards per play against FBS competition, which are good numbers, but the offense won't be as good this season without Teel, Britt, and Underwood. senior Dom Natale and freshman Tom Savage are battling it out for the starting quarterback job and neither looked good in scrimmage last month against the Rutgers' number 1 defense. The Scarlet Knights do return all 5 starters from an offensive line that only allowed sacks on 4.4% of the team's pass plays (6% is average), so the new quarterback should have plenty of time to find a receiver and Tim Brown is a veteran receiver with great speed and an 18.8 yards per catch average over his career. The other receiver spots may be manned by red-shirt freshman and a compliment to Brown must emerge for Rutgers to have a good pass attack. My best guess is that Rutgers will be 0.4 yppp better than average throwing the ball, which is where the Knights graded before Teel became the quarterback. The rushing attack has been solid in recent years and the experienced line and good set of backs should produce better than average rushing numbers. Overall, I'll call for Rutgers to be 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season, but the poor performance of the offense in scrimmages could be a sign of trouble and I may be overestimating the new quarterbacks.

Rutgers is known for having good defenses under coach Greg Schiano, but they've really only been really good for one season (1.2 yppl better than average in 2006). Rutgers was 0.3 yppl better than average in 2005, 0.4 ypl better than average in 2007 and they were actually 0.2 yppl worse than average last season despite allowing just 20.4 points per game. The Scarlet Knights gave up 5.7 yppl for the season (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense), but that unit improved in the 2nd half of the season (just as the offense did) and I rate the Rutgers' stop unit at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this season.

Rutgers looks like they could be a solid team if their new quarterback is decent, but they're not that much better than an average team on either side of the ball and I'll know a lot more about this team after this game with Cincinnati.

My ratings suggest that these teams are about even from the line of scrimmage, but Cincinnati has a huge edge in special teams and that could be the difference in this game. Too much is being made of Cincinnati having just 1 returning starter on defense, as that unit has plenty of talent and performed very well in scrimmages this summer. I rate the Bearcats' defense as average, which is a huge 0.8 yppl drop from last year's great defense, and I actually think they'll be better than average this season. Overall, my ratings favor Cincinnati by 1/2 a point based on their offensive advantage and special teams. I certainly don't see how Rutgers can be favored by 6 points in this game but I'll resist making the Bearcats a Best Bet because of all the variance involved with forecasting Cincy's new defense and Rutgers' new quarterbacks. I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd make the Bearcats a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

Strong Opinion
UNDER (51 1/2) - UCLA (-19.5) 31 San Diego St. 13
04:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
San Diego State was a horrible mess defensively last season, as multiple injuries to the defensive line crippled the defense and allowed teams to run at will against them. The Aztecs also had issues on the offensive line, which had trouble run blocking. Bad line play greatly attributed to San Diego State being out-scored by an average of 19 points per game but they did win a best bet for me in their final game by taking down UNLV 42-21 as a double-digit home underdog. That win was not enough to save Chuck Long's job and Brady Hoke, who coached up Ball State's program in recent years, is the new head coach. I'm not completely sold on Hoke as a head coach (it certainly helped having Nate Davis at quarterback), but Hoke was wise enough to pick good assistant coaches in OC Al Borges and DC Rocky Long, whose defenses at New Mexico always out-played their talent.

Long is bringing in his 3-3-5 defense, an alignment that tends to make up for a lack of physical talent, which should suit the Aztecs. Long always had solid defenses despite mediocre talent at New Mexico (aside from Brian Urlacher), and his defensive units had an average rating of 0.5 yards per play better than average (on a national scale) the last 8 seasons. San Diego State isn't going to be that good just yet, but they are in much better shape this season with lots of players that have starting experience. Based on experience and talent ratings San Diego State would be about 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively this season, but Long's defenses at New Mexico were on average 0.3 yppl better than the projected defense based on those parameters. I have faith in Long but I'll base my defensive rating on experience and talent and call for the Aztecs to be 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. However, that unit could be closer to average if Long does his usual magic.

San Diego State's offense should be better as well, as Hoke has a pretty good young quarterback in sophomore Ryan Lindley, who was only 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and threw just 9 interceptions on 427 pass attempts as a freshman. Most of Lindley's receivers are back, but I'll call for about the same sort of numbers since the offense is learning a new system - although Lindley certainly could be average or better this year. The rushing attack was horrible last season (just 3.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and I don't see too much improvement this season as all the top backs average around 4.0 ypr in their careers. I'll call for San Diego State's offense to be just slightly better than it was last year when Lindley played (he missed almost all of 2 games and the backup quarterback stats were horrible). The Aztecs look to be about 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively but could be better than that if Lindley can pick up the new system quickly.

San Diego State looks like one of the most improved teams in the nation, as I rate them at just 7 1/2 points worse than an average team after being 18.5 points worse than average last year.

UCLA was decimated by injuries last season, with 44 starts lost due to injury by starters (among the most in the nation), and the Bruins are in much better shape with 15 returning starters (compared to 6 last season) and young talent that is ready to contribute. Red shirt freshman QB Kevin Prince takes over the reigns of an offense that was among the worst in the nation last season, averaging just 4.2 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Prince will be better than last year's quarterback Kevin Craft (now battling for the 2nd string job) and the rushing attack will also should be much better with a more experienced offensive line and without Kahlil Bell, who was banged up last season and averaged a pathetic 2.8 ypr. The Bruins have 7 returning starters on offense surrounding Prince (it will be 8 when RG Ekbatani returns in October) and there is a chance that they could be better than average offensively, but Prince was just 9 for 19 passing for a paltry 77 yards in the scrimmage last week. I'll rate UCLA's attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average heading into this season.

The Bruins were solid defensively last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), with a mediocre run defense and a very good pass defense (1.0 yppp better than average). That pass defense should be even better with 1st Team All-Pac 10 CB Alterraun Verner back after leading the nation with 20 passes defended in 2008. Overall, the defense is more experienced and more talented and the run defense should be better than average this season while the pass defense could be among the nation's best if the pass rush improves (just 21 sacks last season).

The Bruins' defense dominated the offense in August scrimmages and new quarterback Prince completed just 17 of 31 passes for 146 yards with 2 interceptions in the most recent 2 scrimmages. That is not a good sign considering those stats were compiled mostly against UCLA's 2nd string defense. I'll stick with my initial projections for UCLA's offense but the state of the offense in August scrimmages certainly suggests that things may not have improved at all for the Bruins' offense.

My ratings favor UCLA by just 18 1/2 points so there is not much value on the side. The better play looks to be the Under (51 1/2 points). UCLA is strong defensively and weak offensively while San Diego State appears to be at least as good defensively as they are offensively given their expected improvements under new DC Long. My ratings project just 44 total points in this game and it could be even lower given how much UCLA's defense has dominated their offense in scrimmages - which either means that the Bruins' offense is worse than expected or their defense is even better than expected. Either way, that favors an even lower scoring game. I'll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 09:23 AM

Re: 9-5-09

PPP

3 Toledo
3 Akron
4 Utep
5 Tex AM

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:17 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Brandon Lang

Saturday's Selections ...
Note:

All about this Saturday.

I love the first Saturday of College football. Just absolutely love it.

Last year, the first Saturday I delivered a 9-point dog that won outright in East Carolina. Value in the dogs.

Well, I am ready to do it again today. Another solid play.

Winning July. Winning August. 7 straight winning weeks. I've won every single week since the all star break.

That is how dialed in I am right now, and how much I feel dialed in with this Saturday card.

Time to go have a big day and take a big step in locking up winning week # 8 in a row.

15 DIMER - OHIO UNIVERSITY - Note: if this line is bet down to 3, buy the 1/2 and make sure you get +3 1/2.

This is a live dog at home tonight.

Frank Solich has put together in my opinion his best team since he came to Ohio U, and as the year progresses you will not get the kind of value you are getting tonight.

Ohio 6-0 ATS outside the MAC the last 2 years, including going into Ohio State last year as a 33-point underdog and covering easily losing 26-14.

They actually led for most of the first half in that game with great play from their defense, which returns most of the defensive line and the best group of linebackers in the MAC.

This is also an Ohio team that has covered 8 of their last 12 at home.

The Huskies have to break in a new QB, new running back as last years stud Brown is playing on Sunday now, and this is just a very tough spot for Uconn to open the season.

The next 2 weeks they have both North Carolina and Baylor, so it wouldn't suprise me if they took this Ohio team a bit lightly, which would be a huge mistake.

This is a very experienced Ohio team that was far better than their 4-8 record from a season ago, and I think the wrong team is favored here tonight.

I am rolling with Ohio at home in what I feel is the last time you will get this kind of value with this team the rest of the year.

Ohio goes to 7-0 ATS versus non-conference opponents the last 2 years, and don't be suprised if they win the game outright.

Ohio plus the points is the play.

OHIO UNIVERSITY - 7pm

5 DIMER - ILLINOIS - Payback for Ron Zook and Illinois today.

First and foremost, I've always felt this line should have been -7 so the linemove up doesn't scare me at all.

Secondly, people are going to find out just how good this team is after today and you won't get this kind of value with them the rest of the year as well.

Missouri returns a total of 9 starters from last years team that fell hard at the end of the year losing their last 2 games and failing to cover their bowl game versus Northwestern.

Now they have a new QB they have to break in versus a defense that led the Big Ten in sacks last year, and my gut tells me this is blowout city.

The last 2 games have been shootouts with Illinois coming back in the 2nd half of both games only to fall a little bit short.

Well, no comeback here today, as Juice Williams and this explosive Illni offense absolute shred a Missouri defense that returns 4 starters from a group that gave up 126 points their last 3 games to close out last year.

Love Illinois in this spot today.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI - 3:30 pm

FREE SELECTION - VIRGINIA TECH-ALABAMA UNDER

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:25 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Burns 9* Cal
Burns 10* under Illinois

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:38 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Wayne Root

Vegas Legend Texas A&m
Millionaire Washington U
Tv Plays Nevada Byu Alabama

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:38 AM

Re: 9-5-09

Spreitzer 25* Morning Massacre- Kentucky

Spreitzer 25* Blowout- Texas A&M

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:38 AM

Re: 9-5-09

executive

250 ok st
250 nd

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 10:48 AM

Re: 9-5-09

PPP
added
5% utep

**Mr. IWS** · 09-05-2009, 02:01 PM

Re: 9-5-09

Root

baylor no limit

byu billionaire part of tv extravaganza

**jzayas22** · 09-05-2009, 08:43 PM

Re: 9-5-09

colorado vs. colorado st ?

9-5-09

9-5-09

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