9-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Jimmy Boyd

-= TOP PLAY =-
NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Akron vs Penn State Penn State
-26-108 at 5dimes
5* NCAAF Non-Conference GOTY on Penn State -26
The Nittany Lions dominated their non-conference schedule last season and I fully expect that to be the case again. They started off the year with a 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina and they'll be looking to send a message right out of the gate that they are every bit as good as last year's team. Quarterback Daryll Clark and running back Evan Royster lead the offense, but I expect Penn State's defense to be the key here. The Nittany Lions ranked 8th in the nation last year in both total and scoring defense and I expect them to be even better this season. The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MAC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Lay the points.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (12:00p)
Toledo vs Purdue Toledo
+10½-110 at 5dimes
4* Major Week 1 Underdog Shocker on Toledo +10.5
Toledo beat a Michigan team last season that was better than the Purdue team they will face Saturday. Plus, this Toledo team, which returns 16 starters is expected to be greatly improved as well. The Boilermakers will be a bottom of the barrel type team in the Big Ten this season. No Curtis Painter and no Kory Sheets equals no offense. The Boilermakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. the MAC and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take the points.


NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (4:00p)
Rice vs UAB UAB
-5-110 at bodog
4* Major Conference USA Game of the Month on UAB -5
UAB returns all 11 offensive starters, and I expect this unit, led by QB Joe Webb to torch a Rice defense which allowed 33.0 ppg last season. The Owls won 10 games last year but lost all of their offense and won't be able to answer the call. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while the Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September. The Blazers are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. UAB finished the season with 3 wins in its last 5 games, and nearly beat Conference USA champ East Carolina. Look for UAB to be jacked up to start the year at home and in conference play.

NCAA-F | Sep 05 '09 (7:00p)
Ul Monroe vs Texas Texas
-40½-102 at 5dimes
3* SMASH on Texas -40.5
IL Monroe is one of the worst football teams in the country. The Longhorns opened up last football season with a 42-point win over a much better FAU squad. They then posted 42-point wins in their next two home non-conference games. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the S-Belt. Plus, UL Monroe is 7-21 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992. Texas will win by as much as they want to and that should be good enough for a cover here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

North Coast Sports Line

Free 4* Power Play
Michigan

Underdog Play of the Week
Washington Huskies

Economy Club Play
Baylor

Big 12 POW
Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

RAS early College FB for 9/5/2009

#147 Akron +27

#170 E Mich -5

#183 ID +3

#199 MTSU +19'

All for 1 Unit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

WUNDERDOG NCAAF PICKS

Game: Baylor at Wake Forest (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wake Forest -2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Demon Deacons have certainly been more of a factor in the ACC the past few years than they had been in the past. The good news is that Riley Skinner returns at QB with an offense that has nine starters returning. This has been great news for teams in the past as those returning nine starters have been a perfect 25-0 the past three years playing an out-of-conference game in the first month of the season. They are 55-7 over the past decade. And with the line set low, this provides a very favorable situation for Wake. Jim Grobe has gotten it done here as they have 28 wins in his last three seasons at the helm. Baylor has not been a factor for a longtime in the Big-12 and won't be this season either, despite an exciting QB in Robert Griffin. He can't do it alone and Baylor has had a lot of key departures from a year ago. Griffin could find the going tough, especially early as his offensive line is going to need some time to develop. In week one, that just isn't likely to happen. I'll go with Wake Forest in this one.
Game: Western Michigan at Michigan (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Michigan -11.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The first year for Michigan under Rich Rodriguez was certainly one full of adjustments. They had a horrible season. But his teams are noted for making big strides in year two, and he certainly has the supporting cast in place to do just that in 2009. The offense returns nine starters from last year's team. What does that mean in this game? Home favorites that return 9+ offensive starters that are playing a non-conference opponent during the first month of the season have been premier bets to win the game, having gone 25-0 the past three seasons and 55-7 the past ten seasons. That does not even begin to tell the whole story here. The last five years in this situation the games have been brutally lopsided as the team returning the nine offensive players has won by an average score of 37.5 to 14.8. That is a huge 22.7 points per game. That sets the stage for a Michigan blowout in this one. Michigan is a bit underrated right now, given their disastrous 2008 campaign. We'll take advantage of that and get them here at a line well below what it should be.
Game: San Jose State at U S C (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U S C -34 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The departure of one of the top QBs in the nation (Mark Sanchez) would leave most teams scrambling to find success the following year. But that simply has not been the case at USC. It's more like a yearly occurrence. The offense is loaded with playmakers, and the defense should be one of the top units in the country, if not the top. The Trojans have a veteran line to ease the transition. San Jose State has made strides, but the talent they face week-in and week-out pales in comparison to what they will see here in this one. Last year, they had one of the top defenses in the country, but against a lackluster schedule. The problem was that the three competent offenses they saw in Boise State, Nevada and Nebraska all burned them for an average of 36.3 ppg and this year's version isn't as talented. Offensively, they were held to 17 points or less in seven games, and that came against defenses that aren't even close to what they will face here. I would not be surprised to see the USC defense outscore the Spartan’s offense in this one. The Trojans are 29-17 ATS as a home favorite and 24-12 ATS in non-conference games under Pete Carroll. I like USC in a blowout.
Game: Nevada at Notre Dame (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Notre Dame -14 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

It has been a long time since Notre Dame has been a player on the National scene. Could this be the year the Irish rise and become a player once again? It could be a special year for two reasons. The first is that the talent level and experience is the most promising in years. And the second is that the schedule is pretty easy. Outside of USC midway through the season, the Irish have a full slate of winnable games on the schedule and it starts with the Wolfpack from Nevada. This will be the first trip ever for a Wolfpack team into South Bend, and it could just add to the normal game one jitters. The Wolfpack can score with the best of them, but the problem is that they can't stop a competent offense. In their four biggest games last year, the defense surrendered 69 points to Missouri, 35 to Texas Tech, 42 to Maryland and 41 points to Boise State. That is an average of 47 ppg. Not only did they all result in losses, but they went 0-4 ATS as well. In the past 15 seasons, the Wolfpack have gone 27-48 ATS when allowing 28+ points and Notre Dame is sure to reach that threshold here. The Irish have a good enough defense to hold them down, but the Wolfpack just doesn't have any answers on defense. In the end, it will cost them. Irish get the win and cover here.
Game: Missouri vs. Illinois (Saturday 9/05 3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Missouri +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Tigers lost a lot of talent, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a lot of talent left. They will certainly miss Chase Daniels at QB, but what they do have is an above-average running game that will assist the development of new QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense has certainly seen some potent offenses, so nothing they see from Illinois will shake them. New DC Dave Steckel has already made the necessary changes in discipline and schemes. Juice Williams will lead a dynamic attack for the Illini, but again, Missouri has seen the best QBs in the country, so this isn't going to be anything but business as usual. While everyone expects the Tigers' offense to take a giant step back, I think it will still be great, especially against the back seven of this Illini defense, which is not very good. Missou has won six of the last seven games between these two clubs and Illinois was 1-5 on the road last season. I'll take the points here and go with Missouri.
Game: U L Monroe at Texas (Saturday 9/05 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Texas -40.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Laying 40 points? Yeah - in this one, no problem. All you have to do is look at UL Monroe last season playing Mississippi and Auburn. Despite an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg otherwise, they didn't net a single point in either of those games, while the defense surrendered 93 points! Now they have no QB and have to replace nearly their entire defensive line. It doesn’t help that they facing one of the top defenses, and one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Looking back at some games the Longhorns have played at home against Sun Belt teams provides further evidence that they can cover this big line. Here are four openers against Sun Belt teams: Texas won 52-10, 56-7, 60-3 and 65-0. This line is extremely high, but this Texas team has proven that it can deliver and cover against this type of opponent, and this may be the best Texas team of them all. Think the Longhorns will outgain the Warhawks by 200+ yards in this game? I think it's very, very likely to happen. If it does, it's a good sign as Texas is 44-11 ATS the past fifteen seasons when they accomplish that feat. I'd be surprised if UL Monroe can muster 14 points while Texas should score 60 or more. The Longhorns get the call here.
Game: San Diego State at U C L A (Saturday 9/05 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U C L A -20 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Aztec's head coach Brady Hoke inherits a team that won just two games a year ago and suffered seven losses by 25 points or more. Outside of QB Brian Lindley, the talent level here is going to take the former Ball State coach time to develop and upgrade. This is a lacking team that has gotten blown-out on a weekly basis. The Mountain West has some good teams, but losing seven games by 25+ shows just how far they have to go. San Diego State had no preseason 1st team conference selections (in a lesser conference). They had just one that was chosen for the second team. Meanwhile the Bruins have 16 starters returning so the talent difference in this game is huge. UCLA will field one of the top defenses in the Pac-10, and that will be the deciding factor in this one. San Diego State scored 14 points or less in eight games a year ago. They averaged 9.8 points per game on the road where they went 2-4 ATS. When facing the top four teams in the conference, they lost by an average margin of 34.3 points per game. I don't see anything here that will change that. UCLA has gone 21-9 ATS in their last 30 non-conference home games. UCLA gets the call here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11 CENTRAL MICHIGAN over *Arizona
Late Score Forecast:
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23 - *Arizona 24
Central Michigan HC Butch Jones is building a MAC powerhouse at Mt. Pleasant. The Chippewas, who own the
best recruiting class in the MAC, have 10 regulars back on defense and figure to improve considerably with 11
upperclassmen starting on the stop unit. Little needs to be said about QB Dan LeFevour, who completed 69% last
season and has thrown for 74 touchdowns and run for an additional 32 scores in his CMU career. His top three
targets return, and they combined for 199 catches LY. Arizona is retooling at QB, and running game keyed by
Grigsby & Antolin might not be as effective without graduated QB Tuitama (65%, 3088 YP, 23 TDs LY), and with
top returning receivers TE Gronkowski (47 recs.) and WR Dean (53) possibly limping from camp injuries.

10 OKLAHOMA over Byu
Late Score Forecast:
OKLAHOMA 43 - Byu 10
(at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX)
Yes, there is a concern that the rebuilt Oklahoma OL (four new starters) could have some problems against the
veteran, stunting BYU 3-4 defense, especially sr. DEs Jan Jorgensen & Brett Denney. However, a similar concern exists on the Cougar side as well, with BYU having lost its starting LT & LG to season-ending injuries, meaning the Cougars have zero returning starters in their forward wall vs. the deep OU defense that was fourth in the nation in sacks LY. HC Bob Stoops wants his no-huddle offense (716 points LY, most in NCAA history) to execute even faster TY, and insiders in Norman say Heisman Trophy-winning QB Sam Bradford (50 TDs, 8 ints. LY; merdifully benched in second halves of blowouts) has taken to the challenge. Sooners 12-4 vs. the spread their last 16 on the board (12-2, when excluding bowl games).

10 MIDDLE TENNESSEE over *Clemson
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 24 - *Clemson 31
Sun Belt sources have alerted us to keep our eyes on underrated MTSU bunch that has seamlessly adapted to
progressive first-year o.c. Tony Franklin and his advanced spread formations. Franklin weaved similar magic a
few years ago at Troy, and word is that dynamic jr. QB Dasher appears to be the perfect triggerman for new-look
Blue Raider attack that should help Murfreesboro crew punch above its weight in Death Valley. And small but quick Blue Raider “D” not likely to get overrun by new-look Clemson “O” in its own adjustment phase with RS frosh QB Parker making first career start.

10 *MEMPHIS over Ole Miss
Late Score Forecast:
*MEMPHIS 26 - Ole Miss 31
(Sunday, September 6)
CKO sources firmly believe C-USA contender Memphis not getting sufficient respect from oddsmakers, considering
Tigers won 6 of their final 9 regular season games LY (including Southern Miss upset), coinciding with the
emergence of swift juco RB Curtis Steele (1123 YR, 7 TDs), who only had 15 carries for 83 yds. in his debut at Ole Miss LY. And Memphis’ sr. QB Hall (57%, 2,275 YP, 11 TDs) itching to hook up with his sure-handed, tall WRs for full 4 Qs after getting knocked out with an injury LY. So, Tigers should hang tough in this intense, underdogoriented series (dog 4-2 last 6), which will sadly be interrupted for at least two years since the Rebel A.D. felt series was getting too “stale.” Morever, the fortified Tiger defense (with jucos & highly-regarded SEC transfers) won’t be overwhelmed by Ole Miss’ all-star QB Jevan Sneed and mates, especially since Memphis now has
strategy to counteract the surpising “wildcat formation” unleashed for 1st time in ‘08. Last year, Tiger mentor
Tommy West claimed his team wasn’t emotionally ready to play, but with Ole Miss suddenly dropping out of
series, not the case TY.

10 *COLORADO over Colorado State
Late Score Forecast:
*COLORADO 34 over Colorado State 13
(Sunday, September 6)
Colorado’s 38-17 victory over CSU in 2008 took place at neutral Mile High Stadium in Denver, with the Buffaloes
out-rushing the Rams 153-71. That rush edge could be even bigger TY, with the game in Boulder, CU owning a
plethora of talented & seasoned RBs, and Colorado State rebuilding virtually its entire defensive front seven.
Moreover, Ram HC Farris was disappointed in his QBs most of spring and much of August, before naming 6-2 sr.
Grant Stucker, who is 3 of 5 passing in his four career appearances. Therefore, must count on more-experienced
Buffalo signal callers Hawkins & Hansen—even with their own limitations—to have greater success. The intensity of this rivalry should not be underestimated. But host CU appears to hold important firepower edges in this year’s clash.

TOTALS: UNDER (52) in the Utah State-Utah game (Thursday night)—Utah defense still plenty rugged, while last year’s Ute defensive coordinator, Gary Anderson, is now the Aggies’ head coach!...OVER (64) in the Oregon-Boise State game (Thursday night)—Both offenses should be at their tricky, wideopen best for this shootout on the blue carpet in a game the Broncos cannot afford to lose if they want to be a BCS buster...UNDER (47) in the Connecticut-Ohio U. game—Huskies’ conservative style is to run & defend; well-coached Bobcats will yield points grudgingly on home turf...UNDER (38) in the Virginia Tech-Alabama game—With ground-oriented offenses vs. powerful defenses, this seems like a natural “under,” unless the defenses set up easy points, that is.

NINE-RATED GAMES: TEXAS A&M (-14½) vs. New Mexico—Mike Sherman has his offense in place; if he is right about Aggies’ added speed on defense, all the Lobo changes under new coach Locksley should be too many for them to absorb in their first game...SAN JOSE STATE (+34) at Southern Cal—Dick Tomey has upgraded the Spartan defense during his stay; this is mostly a “training” game for USC true frosh QB Matt Barkley, who will NOT be asked to reach
Mark Sanchez’ levels in Barkley’s first college appearance, especially with a trip to Columbus on deck...WASHINGTON (+17) vs. Lsu—Yes, Huskies were 0-12 LY, but they still have a core of talented players and are a different team now that dynamic QB Jake Locker is back from injury.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Pigskin Prophet

(167) MINNESOTA
(168) SYRACUSE

Take "(167) MINNESOTA"

Syracuse starts fresh with a new coach, but a problem here is they face a dynamite Minnesota spread offense. Tim Brewster brought the spread offense to Minnesota (7-6 in 2008) and it has worked, as the Gophers averaged 23 points, 105 yards rushing and 206 yards passing. Junior QB Adam Weber impressed with 2,895 yards, 24 TDs and 19 picks as a freshman, when he led the Gophers with 617 rushing yards, and last season he had 2,761 yards, 15 TDs and 8 picks. Senior WR Eric Decker returns after leading the team with 84 grabs for 1,074 yards. He's a keeper. Throw in senior WR Ben Kuznia (310 yards) and junior RB Duane Bennett and this offense is loaded. Nine starters return on defense, led by senior Tramaine Brock, but they lost impressive defensive coordinator Ted Roof to Auburn. Minnesota is 9-18 SU, 14-13 ATS on the road the last five seasons. Minnesota is 26-17 over the total the last four years with a strong offense and sometimes suspect defense. Syracuse is rebuilding mode under new coach Doug Marrone, a relative unknown from the New Orleans Saints. He takes over a program in tatters that needs a lot of help. It was another poor season for Syracuse (3-9), 1-6 in the Big East. They have a new-look offense with QB Greg Paulus, a high school football star who played point guard for the Duke Blue Devils for four years, then transferred to Syracuse as a graduate student this spring. "He has instincts that are hard to teach," Marrone said. "He knows how to look people off, how to take control of the game and how to change plays..5? Marrone also likes freshman WR Alec Lemon, so you won.5?t recognize this team (for better or worse). The Orange have a new offensive line grouping of left tackle Josh White, left guard Ryan Bartholomew, center Jim McKenzie, right guard Jonathan Meldrum and right tackle Nick Speller. Marrone has been running tough practices. A few weeks ago, starting outside linebacker Derek Hines turned in his locker key and quit the Orange. Hines, a junior college transfer from California, had been penciled in as a starter at weakside outside linebacker spot by head coach Doug Marrone. The 2008 Orange allowed 27 touchdown passes and picked off just eight in a weak league for passers, so there is a LONG way to go. They are 3-10 SU/4-9 ATS at home the last two seasons.

Projected Score: Minnesota 34, Syracuse 14

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Power Sweep
Key Selections
4* Texas A&M 45 - 17
3* UTEP 40 -23
3* Illinois 37 -23
2* Georgia (+) 28 - 27
2* Wisconsin 41 - 17
2* Navy (+) 17 - 31
Underdog Play of the Week
Ohio U. (+) 23 - 20

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Jim Ashland

NCAAF Week 1

New guy on Sam Clayton's site...

25 dime - Eastern Michigan -5.5

Eastern Michigan

This team is going to be better than they have been in previous years. Now I’m not talking about bowl contention, but I do think they will be more competitive in the MAC this year. Andy Schmitt’s back and he is a big quarterback at 6’4". Last year he threw for 2,644 and 15 touchdowns with 8 picks. Those numbers will improve with 7 receivers returning with game experience including Jacory Stone and Josh Leduc is a strong tight end. Also, the offensive line returns 4 guys that have had either started or have game experience. On defense there are some questions, linebackers will be some what of a problem with the departure of Daniel Holtzclaw but the defensive line is bringing in Junior College transfer to fill the spots and the secondary is returning 3 starters. Yes, this is a unit that gave up 27 touchdowns through the air, however, you must remember Eastern Mich is playing Army, a notorious running team.

Army

Army’s offense has a lot of work to do they only threw 3, yes only 3, touchdown passes last year and only attempted 10 passes per game. In a normal college football game you usually play in between 65-70 snaps that means one out of every 7 offensive plays they tried to throw the ball. That’s horrible. Army has a new coach in from Cal Poly. While he was there they ran the triple option to perfection. However, this isn't Cal Poly and Army isn’t very good. In college when you play against a team that runs this sort of offense in the middle of the season it can be very difficult to prepare for because it has a lot of motions and fakes. But seeing that Eastern Michigan has been preparing all summer for this I think they get the job done. Also there is not one projected offensive lineman on Army’s team who has started a game.

Final Thoughts

Eastern Michigan is the better team. This is also week 1 Eastern Michigan is going to be excited to play especially at home. I like this game because Army will not be able to expose Eastern Michigan’s secondary because they can’t throw the ball at all. And Eastern Michigan's offense will be able to score at will against the weak Army 'D'.

Army 17
Eastern Michigan 31

--

15 dime - Illinois -6.5

Illinois

This is a very important season for Ron Zook. This Illinois team needs to play well early. On offense there isn’t much of a problem, they have probably the second best WR unit in the nation behind only the Irish. Daniel Dufrene and Jason Ford will both take carries and are both capable of breaking the game open. Also having Dufrene back as a senior I think is very important. The offensive line returns three starters from last year’s team. And when the Juice is on he’s as good as anyone. He's entering his senior season, it’s time to grow up and I think he will with a lot of the supporting cast back. The defensive unit is a little bit of a mystery. Martez Wilson returns but is going to play middle and they return three starters in the secondary. I’m very interested in how the front seven will play as a lot of guys on defense have game experience but NO returning starters. It is very important for the Illini to stop the run this year.

Missouri

On offense a ton of questions will be answered as Blaine Gabbert will take the reigns from Chase Daniel. Blaine will be starting his first collegiate football game. Jeremy Maclin is not here anymore, who is going to be their down field threat? Derrick Washington is back at running back and he is a tough player runs hard and is physical. But he's only one player. The offensive line returns three starters and that is a plus. I know how Missouri is going to come out -- they are going to run first and throw second -- they are not going to put a lot of pressure on Gabbert. I just do not see this offense being as explosive as they were last year. Onto the defense... Sean Weatherspoon is one of the best if not the best linebacker in the nation. But they only return four starters return on a defense that was BRUTAL against the pass last year. This secondary gave up on average of 286.6 yards through the air, good enough for dead last in the Big XII.

Final Thoughts

Illinois' offense has the potential to put up a lot of points this year and it's so important that the Illini get off to a fast start. The defense is a question but if they can clamp down on the run early, I think that Illinois can jump out to a nice lead. Last year Jeremy Maclin had 234 all purpose yards and had 2 scores on special teams, a punt for 45 yards and a kickoff for 99 yards. HE IS GONE. I just cannot see Missouri winning this game. Missouri has to replace Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, Ziggy Hood, William Moore and Stryker Sulak. All have moved on to the NFL. Not to mention Missouri has to replace three players in the defensive backfield and they were BAD. Also, Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel said in an interview that he will play 5 true freshman on Saturday. That doesn’t sound good at all.

Illinois 41
Missouri 21

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

igz1 sports

Saturday CFB 9/5/03 Card
CFB
4* Over 66.5 (-110) Oklahoma vs BYU
4* Texas A&M -14 (-110)
3* Virginia Tech +6.5 (-110)
3* Colorado -10 (-110)
3* Oklahoma -22 (-110)
3* USC -33 (-110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Colin Cowherd's Sizziling 7

Georgia + 5
LSU -17
California -21
Alabama -6 1/2
Oklahoma -22
Nevada + 141/2
Illinois - 6 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Robert Ferringo

4.5* GOW: California,
3.5* Texas AM,
3.0* UAB, Illinois,
2.0* Akron, Oklahoma St, vat/alabama Under 38, tease: UTEP~California,
1.5* Minnesota, Toledo, E Michigan,
1.0* tease: UCLA~Texas AM,
0.5* California 1st Half, Texas AM 1st Half,

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Trushel

20* ohio u
reg / illinois
reg / washington

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Matchup: Navy at Ohio State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Navy (+22.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

Navy (+) over OHIO ST - These two last met in a rain soaked 1981 Liberty Bowl. Ohio St has covered 5 straight home openers but this time has a massive game against USC on deck. Last year the week before USC they trailed going into the 4Q vs Ohio as a 33’ pt favorite. OSU is 5-10 ATS vs non-conf and Navy is 6-3 ATS in road openers. OSU lost 2 LB’s and 2 CB’s to the NFL and projected starter Moeher, but still has a very athletic defensive front 7. Last year Navy had just 12 FD’s vs Pitt and 11 vs ND and in both games got the majority of their yards and pts vs the backups. OSU lost RB Wells prior to USC so they probably won’t take chances late and if their minds wander ahead to USC, the Mids will keep trying until the end and could get some big plays. They are 14-4 ATS as an AD.

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Matchup: W. Michigan at Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Michigan (-11.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

MICHIGAN Over W Michigan - Michigan has been upset in their last 2 home openers (App St & Utah) after having won the previous 9. UM is 24-1 SU (0-5 ATS run) vs the MAC and we mention that because their one loss was last year to Toledo. UM is 4-11 ATS in their 1st lined game of the season. These two last met in ‘01 & ‘02 (UM 2-0 ATS). Michigan has a huge game vs ND on deck but must take every opponent seriously after a 3-9 season including that upset loss to Toledo a team that also finished just 3-9 LY. Here they take on a 9-4 WM team that went to a bowl while the Wolves were home for the holidays. WM has talent but it is very inexperienced on D with just 3 starters back and Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg LY but should have one of the most improved offenses in the country led by new starting QB Forcier (PS#16). Expect a fully focused Michigan squad. While Cubit has knocked off 3 BCS teams in 4 years he has dropped his last two openers to WV and Neb by 30.5 ppg. WM may hold some stuff back for a more winnable game next week at Indy.



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Matchup: No. Illinois at Wisconsin
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Wisconsin (-16.0 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

WISCONSIN over N Illinois - Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here.

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Matchup: New Mexico at Texas AM
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas AM (-14 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

TEXAS A&M over New Mexico - LY vs NM, A&M was outgained (236-370) but won the TO battle (+3) in Mike Sherman’s 1st victory as the Aggies HC 28-22 on the road. A&M is 20-1 S/‘88 in home openers, but lost LY to ASU. NMex looks to be in a rebuilding year with just 9 starters back and a new HC and schemes on both sides of the ball. A&M will be much improved with 16 ret starters and now is in Sherman’s 2nd year. A&M is off a disastrous 4-8 year and should want to gain confidence with big early season wins and has the schedule to accomplish that. LY A&M’s 10 returning starters were upset by Ark St in the opener and expect a defense which allowed 462 ypg and 5.2 ypc to dominate a New Mexico offense that is switching to a pass oriented scheme. The Aggies have a bye next week and will hold nothing back.

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Matchup: Connecticut at Ohio
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Ohio (+4 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

Ohio University (+) Over Conn - Take an 8-5 Big East team that won its bowl 38-20 over the MAC Champs and pit them against a lowly 4-8 MAC team to beat and note that the Big East tm won their only previous meeting 37-19 in ‘02 and you would expect the BE team a 2 or 3 TD favorite. Delving a little deeper we see an upset here. Ohio is 5-1 SU in home openers and knocked off Pitt here in Solich’s 1st year. Ohio is a team that opened 0-4 LY but could easily have been 4-0 at that point which would have made them an 8-4 team instead of 4-8. OU is 11-6 ATS at home. Last year UC needed OT to get past MAC member Temple on the road. Ohio only has NT on deck and should be sky high while UC will be looking ahead to NCar and Baylor the next 2 weeks. While UC is a veteran group they lose their star off player in Donald Brown (2,083 rush) and the ret skill players combined (incl the QB) do not equal his numbers. OU was an injury plagued team in ‘08 and that makes them even more exp than their 14 ret sts.

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Matchup: Buffalo at Texas-El Paso
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas-El Paso (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

UTEP over Buffalo - These two teams are going in different directions. Buffalo was the MAC Champ last year and does have 14 ret sts including super RB Starks but loses QB Willy and caught a lot of breaks LY to get that title. UTEP could have been a bowl squad but had a couple of tough losses to finish just 5-7. They have one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Trevor Vittatoe and they also have 15 ret sts. Last year these two met in Buffalo and it was close until Buf got a 34 yd TD pass with :30 left in the half (1 play after 4th down conv) to take the lead and romped in the 2H. It was an unusual trip north for UTEP who were preoccupied by the biggest home game in their history (Texas) which was played the following week. This year it will be a strange trip to the Southwest for Buffalo and UTEP is playing with legitimate revenge. ST and defense are close but UTEP has a large edge on off (#41 vs #112).

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Member Plays
Matchup: Missouri at Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Illinois (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT

Illinois over Missouri (St Louis) - The Illini were just 5-7 last year and Missouri was the Big 12 North Champs but these two are vastly different teams. Illinois could go to a BCS bowl and Missouri is the least experienced team in the country. These two have met in St Louis each of the last 3 years with the Tigers winning by an avg of 38-30 and covering all 3 by just 2 ppg. Illinois has veteran senior QB Juice Williams and one of the most explosive offenses in the country along with a much improved defense. Missouri has an untested QB after Chase Daniel led them to all 3 wins over Illinois and just 9 starters back. History says Missouri but this year’s talent says Illinois is the stronger team and gets a more comfortable win than expected.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Allen Eastman

6-Unit Play. Take #167 Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
This is my Game of the Week. The Golden Gophers are one of the most experienced teams in the country and should be able to take advantage of a Syracuse team that is still trying to find its way. Syracuse has a new coach and a whole new system that they are working on and they are just 2-7 ATS in nonconference games and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on the road. They are a much more solid and stable team and they should take care of business here. Syracuse lost 30-10 to big 10 foe Northwestern last year. I can see a similar outcome in this game.

4-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (-5.5) over Rice (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
I’m playing the Blazers in this one mainly because they are at home. The home team is 2-0 in this series and I like the experience that UAB brings to the table here. UAB finished last year on a 4-1 ATS run and I think that they will carry over some momentum and get off to a fast start here.

3-Unit Play. Take #156 Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Oklahoma State is looking forward to making a big impression in their opener. They have one of the best offenses in the country and they are looking forward to sticking it to an SEC team. Mark Richt has been great in opposing stadiums over the last few years but Oklahoma State has revenge from their opener in Athens two years ago (35-14 UGA win). Georgia has a new starting quarterback and running back and Stillwater is still a tough place for even experienced teams to win. I think this one will be close for a half but the playmakers on Oklahoma State are too much.

2-Unit Play. Take #152 Ohio (+3.5) over Connecticut (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Connecticut has been really banged up this month and I think that they might be taking Ohio a little too lightly. The Bobcats played some BCS teams tough last year. They only lost to Ohio State by 12 and to Northwestern by 8. They get this one close to home and are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog over the last few years.

3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 LSU at Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
The LSU defense is still one of the fastest and strongest defenses in the country. Usually early in the season the defense is well ahead of the offenses and it results in sloppy play. The Tigers have been a really strong ‘over’ play over the last couple years but I think that the oddsmakers have overadjusted this early in the season. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson is not really a proven guy and I could see him struggling. On the other side, Jake Locker is more of a runner than a thrower. I see LSU in the 20’s and Washington in the 10’s and this one staying well ‘under’.