9-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NCAA Football Power Play for Saturday is:

10* Take Oklahoma (-22.5) over BYU (NCAA Power Play)
7:00 PM EST

Oklahoma
• 12-3 ATS when the total posted is 63 points or greater
• 31-3 SU when playing as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points
• 7-1 ATS when playing in the month of September the last 3 years
• Averaged over 51 points a game on offense last year

Their Guaranteed Win or 1 Month Free (if matters to any)



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Extra Football Play

5* Take Syracuse (+6.5) over Minnesota (NCAA Bonus Play)
12:00 PM EST

Minnesota
• 1-3 ATS when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points
• 2-6 ATS when playing as a favorite the last 3 seasons
• 2-5 ATS in non-conference games the last 3 seasons


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Extra Football Play

5* Take Western Michigan (+12.5) over Michigan (NCAA Bonus Play)
3:30 PM EST

Michigan
• 0-3 ATS vs. MAC Conference Opponents the last 3 seasons
• 0-3 ATS when playing in the 1st two weeks of the season
• 0-3 ATS when playing as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points the last 3 seasons



ATS=Against the Spread
SU=Straight Up

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Dave Malinsky

4* Nevada
4* Middle Tenn State
4* Auburn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Robert Ferringo's


Saturday College Football Selections
4.5-Unit Play. Take #188 California (-21) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #188 Cal (-13) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

This game should be a god damn bloodbath. Maryland lost nearly half of its team last year. That’s not an exaggeration. They lost 45 percent of their lettermen from last year’s squad and saw 30 seniors graduate. In fact, 58 of Maryland’s players still have three years of elgibility left. That is a laughably young team. And now they are on the road, in a rowdy stadium for a night game, against an extremely veteran team with 15 returning starters, 10 senior starters, several All-American’s and a bad chip on its shoulder. All of that spells trouble and it spells blowout to me. Cal suffered a stunning 35-27 loss as a 14-point favorite last year at Maryland in a game that kicked off at 9 a.m. PST. It clearly impacted the Bears, who were down 28-6 heading into the fourth quarter. But that’s what sticks out to me. First, oddsmakers only swung the line seven points for the adjustment of venue? That seems light. Second, that means that once Cal woke up they outscored Maryland 21-7 and had several other opportunities to tie the game. Finally, when you factor in revenge and the disparity in youth and experience this one has blowout written all over it. Bears big this weekend.

3.5-Unit Play. Take #180 Texas A&M (-14) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
0.5-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take #180 Texas A&M (-8) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Sat., Sept. 5)
This is a game that I think can get a bit ugly. The Aggies actually won in Albuqurque by six points last year and that was a much better Lobos squad. New Mexico only brought back nine starters, including erratic and inconsistent quarterback Donovan Porterie, who I am not a fan of. They also have a new coach, new coordinators, and a completely different offensive systems as they shift to more of a pass-happy attack. That’s good and all, but their quarterback is a turnover machine and a lack of proven skill players. Texas A&M is 20-1 in home openers since 1988 but they lost at home last year to Arkansas State in Mike Sherman’s first game at the helm. They will remember that and I know they won’t want another embarrassment at home against a weaker opponent. A&M has a bye week following this game so they aren’t looking forward to anything. I think they are going to step out and lay on a big number against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.

3-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (-5.5) over Rice (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
This line was the first one that I noticed when the college football spreads came out and I absolutely loved it as a ‘pick’ game. Apparently, so does everyone else because it’s been bet up nearly six points. We have to fade Rice in this spot in a letdown spot after last year’s incredible season. They lost two of the program’s best players every in Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard and this year they welcome back only four offensive starters. UAB, on the other hand, has all 11 offensive starters back and 18 starters total. That includes a whopping seven three-year starters on the offensive side. This is coach Neil Callaway’s third year with his system and that is usually the season where everything takes off. UAB quarterback Joe Webb is likely the best player on the field and the dual threat senior should have enough to lead his team to a win here.

3-Unit Play. Take #162 Illinois (-6.5) over Missouri (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
I don’t know if any team in the country lost as much as Missouri did. They bid farewell to three of the best players in the school’s history in Chase Daniels, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman as well as seven All-Big-12 defenders. This team is completely starting over. And on the other side of the field is an Illinois team that fought very gamely last year in a 52-42 loss. And don’t think that the Illini don’t remember how Mizzou rang up those 52 points. This is a fledgling rivalry in the area. And this is the last meeting that these two teams are going to have, as the schools decided not to keep it going, and I think that Illinois is going to want to lay the wood to give Missouri something to remember them by. The Illini had significantly weaker teams than Missouri in 2007 and 2008 and only lost by six and by 10. Not bad. But now the Illini are the ones with the upper hand in terms of experience and talent.

2-Unit Play. Take #147 Akron (+27) over Penn State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
It’s always tough going against JoePa because he’s one of those coaches that is notorious for trying to cover the spread. But that aside I think that this could be a decent spot for a feisty Akron team. This Nittany Lions team is nearly completely new. They have just nine returning starters and are breaking in some raw players in key spots. All three of their wideouts are new starters. That should at least slow down Penn State’s high-powered attack just a little. Their offensive line is pretty new as well, with three new starters, so I don’t expect domination right from the start. But the key thing here is that Penn State’s weakness is in the secondary and Akron is a team that can throw the rock. The Zips have a three-year starter at quarterback and bring back all three starting wideouts from last season. They also have four returning starters from their offensive line, including three three-year starters. The defense is pretty weak. And Evan Royster should have a day. But I just think that Akron will be able to score enough points to keep this one respectable. Since 2006 Akron is 2-7 SU in games against BCS teams. But they are a solid 6-3 ATS in those games. They are also 0-11 in their last 11 games against the Big 10 but they have only lost those games by an average of 25 points. That includes an 18-point loss at Penn State in 2006, an 18-point loss at Ohio State in 2007, and a 21-point loss at Wisconsin last year. That’s not bad. They also covered an 11-point line at home against a very good Cincinnati club last year. I’ll see if we can’t take advantage of that young Penn State secondary and passing game and keep this one within the spread.

2-Unit Play. Take #156 Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
I’m going with talent on the field over coaching in this one. It is so tough to bet against Mark Richt in an opponent’s stadium. But there is just a lot working in the favor of Oklahoma State here. They have three All-American first teamers on their offense, and that doesn’t even count stud quarterback Zac Robinson. Conversely, Georgia will need a little time to get over the loss of No. 1 draft picks QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshown Moreno. Georgia’s defense is legit. And they regained some strength on the offensive and defensive lines. But last year they weren’t that impressive in a 17-point win over Arizona State on the road in their big nonconference away game. And it isn’t like Oklahoma State hasn’t played against teams the caliber of Georgia before. Oklahoma State has some revenge in mind after getting worked over 35-14 in the season opener in Athens. And this year I think that OSU’s talent on offense is just going to be too much for UGA and its new quarterback to overcome.

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 38.0 Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Two exceptional defenses and two subpar quarterbacks equals an ‘under’ in my book. This is one of the marquee games of the weekend and I can see it being a slugfest. Neither offense is stacked with playmakers and the defenses are probably in the Top 10 in the country. Both coaches know how important this game is so I expect them to be a little conservative, and none of the players want to be the guy that makes the big mistake. With all of the talent that was on the field in the Georgia Dome on offense last year (and a weaker Clemson defense then than this Tech defense now) there was still only 44 points scored in that game. Eight of Tech’s 14 games last year saw less than 38 points scored in it and two more had 40 and 42.Alabama played over that mark in nine of their 14 games but that was with a much more experienced offensive attack, including a three-year starter at quarterback and a very good running back. I see this one played in the teens or maybe a 23-10-type game and I think it stays ‘under’.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #167 Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
We have to go with experience here. It might be a new era of Syracuse football but that still doesn’t change the fact that they have still been one of the sorriest programs in the country over the last couple years. Now they are starting Greg Paulus at quarterback. I’m sorry, but I’m not a Paulus believer. Minnesota has 18 starters back from a bowl team last year, including a veteran quarterback and potential All American receiver Eric Decker. The Gophers just have a much better sense of who they are and that should make the difference here. Syracuse is just 1-6 in its last seven home openers and had lost their last six nonconference home games against BCS teams by an average of 18 points per. The Orange lost six of their top 10 tacklers and they just don’t have the talent right now. Last year they lost three of their first four home games by 14 (Akron), 42 (Penn State), and 10 (Pitt). Two years ago they lost by 30 in their home opener to an eventual 4-9 Washington team and then came back two weeks later to get pasted by 21 at home to Illinois. The Dome is going to be rocking. But Minnesota is used to playing on turf. I’m backing their experience here and although I do expect a close game I think the Gophers end up winning by 10.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #173 Toledo (+10.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
Toledo is a team that can make some noise in the MAC and this is an awful generous number against a Purdue team that is really starting over. Even with really good Purdue teams, the Boilers have struggled against the MAC in recent years. They did not cover against Central Michigan in 2008, covered by just two points against them in 2007, and then went 0-3 ATS against Akron (2005), Miami, OH and Ball State (2006). That’s a dicey 1-4 ATS and the only blowout they have had against a MAC team in the past four years was a 52-24 win over – Toledo. I think the that Rockets will be taken a little lightly by Purdue because of that. But Toledo is one of the more veteran teams in the country. Don’t forget that this Rockets club won in The Big House last year over Michigan, lost by just one point to No. 25 Fresno State, were down just 3-0 to Ball State at the half, and lost by Central Michigan by just one point. Toledo has nine three-year starters and some quality depth. I think that they avoid their road woes here and are competitive in a high-scoring game.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #170 Eastern Michigan (-5.5) over Army (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Army has a new coach, a new defense, a freshman quarterback, and is playing against a team set for revenge. On the other side, Eastern Michigan has a solid veteran quarterback, three-year starter Andy Schmitt, and nine of their 17 returning starters have been starters fro three years. Last year the Eagles led Army 13-10 late in the game but gave up a late touchdown for a tough loss. That was one of three losses in the second half of the season by a touchdown or less. So although this team finished 3-9 they were justa few plays away from being a 5- or 6-win team. They even sprung a huge upset of rival Central Michigan to close the season. Army has lost 12 straight season openers, including a 28-point loss to Temple last year, an 8-point loss to Akron in 2007 and an 8-point loss at Arkansas State in 2006. Not exactly powerhouses that were beating them.

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #186 UTEP (-1.5) over Buffalo (9 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5) AND Take #188 California (-14) over Maryland (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
This line has skyrocketed since word of James Starks’ injury for the Bulls. Starks was one of the best running backs in the school’s brief history and by far their best offensive player back this year. Now the Bulls will head to Texas without their quarterback and stud runner from last year’s team. Buffalo is yet another team that had a dreamy 2008 and now is going to come back to earth somewhat in 2009. UTEP got rolled 42-17 last year in Buffalo. However, that was actually a 14-14 game with less than a minute left in the half before the Bulls hit the jets. UTEP might have been looking ahead to a bit-time game with Texas at home the next week. They won’t be looking past Buffalo this year and they again have some revenge on the brain. UTEP has 15 returning starters, including nine three-year starters, and an excellent passing game. They will have their hands full with a talented Buffalo secondary. But the Bulls defense was erratic, at best, last year.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #194 UCLA (-12.5) over San Diego State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5) AND Take #180 Texas A&M (-7) over New Mexico (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
Note: I actually like this UCLA game much more than the grading (I wanted to play it as a straight-up pick) but I think the odds are that they are going to reschedule the game due to the California wildfires. So I didn't want to get on this game too big only to have to have the ticket be refunded. However, if they do happen to play it's a game I definitely want my money on.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Teddy Covers

Georgia 20* Big Ticket

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Northcoast
Northcoast 4 GOW UTEP 4 TAM 3 Ga 3 Ohio U 3 Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Pure Lock

Ucla -18 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Truschel 20* Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Dave Malinsky added

4* Central Mich/Arizona Under 55

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Trushel add ons
ov ohio
und n mex st.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections
NCAA Football
4 (****) UAB -6
3 (***) UTEP -9.5
2 (**) Mid Tennessee St +18.5
2 (**) Auburn -13.5

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
MLB Baseball
3 (***) LAA -105

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Chris Jordan
Chris Jordan Saturday night sweep ...
200? CALIFORNIA - This is a true revenge game for the Bears, and with Maryland having to travel to the West Coast time zone and play at what will be 10 p.m. to them, I don’t give the Terrapins any shot today.

This is a talented team that returns 15 starters on offense and defense to a team that won nine games last year. And as far as I can tell, the Bears have every intention of winning the Pac 10 that USC has. The Bears are stacked at the skill positions, there is experience in the trenches and there’s an overall sense this team by this team that is can finish September 4-0 and head into its home clash with Southern Cal on Oct. 3 with virtually everything on the line.

Meanwhile, the Terps might be in the top 60 in the nation, they’re one of the youngest and inexperienced teams in the nation, there is uncertainty in the trenches and though the talent that was recruited and brought in is highly regarded, I think this team has its hands full far from home.

This is a helluva road trip for the Terps, who play their next four games at home. My guess is coach Ralph Friedgen just wants to get out of this one unscathed on the injury front. That’ll be tough, cause Cal has had this date circled for months!

Legit revenge situation here, as Cal rolls large!!!

100? TEXAS AM - This is another mismatch, and it’s mainly because of the Lobos, who are under a new regime and will feel the growing pains with a new coaching staff in place. Former coach Rocky Long – a defensive genius – is now the D-Coordinator at San Diego State, and now the entire stop unit faces a new system to learn. This isn’t the best way to start the season, against a Big 12 team that has nine starters back on offense, including talented junior quarterback Jerrod Johnson.

The Aggies are looking to improve on last year’s 4-8 season, and a favorable schedule in September could have them 3-0 heading into a clash with Arkansas on Oct. 3. On deck are home clashes with Utah State and Alabama-Birmingham, so there’s not to squirm about. Big 12 mid-range versus Mountain West mediocre … I’ll lay the chalk.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Dave Cokin

20* Baylor +2.5
20* California -21

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Jack Jones

NCAAF

15* on Kentucky -15

Miami of Ohio has fallen hard after several prosperous years in the MAC. Last season they managed just a 2-10 record, including a 4-7 record against the spread. This season the Redhawks welcome a new coaching staff, new style of offense, and many new players to the team. It's going to be another long season for Miami Ohio fans. Kentucky has been flying under the Radar in the SEC. They aren't one of the powerhouses in the conference just yet, but the program is moving in the right direction. Last year the Wildcats struggled offensively in the conference, but they will be facing a Miami team Saturday that allowed about 33 points per game a year ago. A real show-stopper hasn't emerged on the Kentucky offense just yet, but they will move the ball down the field, and they will put up a lot of points over a program in the process of a complete overhaul.

15* on Illinois -6.5

Take the Illionis Fighting Illini over the Missouri Tigers on Saturday. Missouri loses two of their most productive players from a year ago in QB Chase Daniel and WR Jeremy Maclin. In fact, the Tigers return just 10 of their 22 starters from a year ago, which has most fans and experts calling this season a rebuilding year for this Missouri program. Illinois has not played well against this Missouri team in recent years, losing 6 of the last 7 meetings, but they get their best chance in recent memory today with a solid core of players returning, including multi-talented QB Juice Williams, who is one of the most dangerous weapons in the Big 10 this season. Juice will rack up yards on the ground and through the air against an inexperience Missouri defense. Williams will need to be the go-to guy if the Illini want to pick up a win in their opener, but don't be surprised to see someone like WR Junior Arrelious Benn step up and help the Illinois cause. This is Williams' senior year. He has enough talent around him, and is catching Missouri at just the right time to walk away with a victory in his first game of the 2009 season.

15* on UAB -6

Rice's amazing offense from a year ago has been completely gutted with the departure of 7 offensive starters, of who accounted for 97% of the team's passing yards, 93% of their rushing yards, and 64% of their receiving yards. UAB returns all 11 starters on offense from last year's team, and while the Blazers didn't light-up the scoreboard, they did average almost 370 yards of total offense per game, and with the whole squad back, those numbers will continue to improve. Senior QB Joe Webb is a versatile player for UAB, coming off a season where he led the team in passing and rushing. Webb also has some solid returning receivers to throw to, making my expectations for the Blazers in this game, and in Conference USA this year much higher than the 4-8 season they turned out in 2008.

20* No Doubt Rout on Stanford -17

This game has all of the makings of another blowout after Stanford's 58-0 thrashing of the Cougars. Washington State is one of the 10 worst teams in college football, and they arguably have the worst offense-defense combo of any team in a major conference. The Cougars gave up 44 points per game defensively, while scoring a mere 12.7 points per game on offense. Washington State returns 15 of their 22 starters from a year ago, and while that's a good thing for some programs, I can't see these returning players taking their game to a much higher level than they performed at last season. Stanford managed just a 5-7 record last year, but they return 17 starters from last year's squad, which was solid enough offensively to post 350 yards per game. Their defense somewhere in the middle of the pack, but they should have no problems with this Washington State attack. While 58-0 isn't likely for a second straight season, it's still going to be a cake walk for the Cardinal tonight.

20* Bailout Blowout on UCLA -19

The Bruins had their problems on offense last year, but they return 9 offensive starters this year, which means they will make less mistakes and be more consistent on that side of the ball. They also get a virtual cupcake in their home opener with San Diego State, a team that went 2-10 last season (0-6 on the road) and had one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Aztecs gave up an eye-popping 40.5 points per game on the road last season. Expect Rick Neuheisel's offense to be much more productive this year, and much less apt to turning the ball over. UCLA cruises in their opener over San Diego State.

MLB

15* on Texas Rangers -128

Take the Rangers over the Orioles as Texas continues to fight for the AL Wildcard. Kevin Millwood is starting for the Rangers and has been solid this season, going 10-8 with a 3.61 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP. Millwood is backed by a strong Texas offense that is hitting .280 as a team and averaging over 5 runs per game over their last 7 contests, where the Rangers are 5-2 over that stretch, including winning their last 4 games in a row. Baltimore has been the exact opposite of Texas over the their last 7 games, going just 2-5 while hitting .259 as a team and scoring just over 4 runs per game. The Orioles throw Brian Matusz, who has seen some success in limited innings earning a 3-2 record, but who has a 5.28 ERA and 1.73 over his 6 starts. The Rangers are just 2 games back from the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card race and they should put their best foot forward against a Baltimore team with nothing to play for.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Anthony Redd

Saturday's Card
25 Dime Notre Dame (1st Half)

25 Dime Notre Dame

25 Dime Texas A&M

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-5-09

Northcoast College Totals Club (Late Phone Selections)

3* Rice/UAB UNDER 60
3* Idaho/New Mexico State UNDER 53'
3* Alabama/Va Tech UNDER 37