9-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Tony Salinas Baseball
Monday, September 07, 2009

23*
Astros {B.Moehler} (+170) over Phillies {J.Moyer}
2:05 PM -- Minute Maid Park
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 90.

24*
La Angels {E.Santana} (-175) over Royals {K.Davies}
2:10 PM -- Kauffman Stadium
Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 75.

25*
Redsox {J.Beckett}/Whitesox {M.Buehrle} UNDER 8½ Runs
2:05 PM -- U.S. Cellular Field
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Near 75.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Rob Veno

Bluechip Cincy

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Vegas Sports Informer

4 Unit Play. Take Under 48½ Miami Fl at Florida St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Rocketman 5* Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

The Duke's Sports


Monday Premium:
*Best Bet* Cincinnati Over (47') for 3.5 Units ***'
Cincinnati/Rutgers 4:00: We like the offensive opportunities that should materialize between these teams; for example, the Bearcats have just 1 returning starter on defense and face an offense with an experienced offensive line, deep running back corps, and quality QBs in Natale (Mich State transfer) and Lovelace (runner). On the other hand, the Bearcats' spread attack should continue their success with QB Pike returning along with a deep and talented supporting cast. The normally defensively stout Scarlet Knights will have a new defensive
coordinator and new specialty teams coach that may factor in yielding more points than normally, especially out of the gate in an opener. Cincy is 4-0 O/U as a road dog and 5-1 O/U in September. We'll go "over" here.

Miami Florida (+6') for 2.5 Units **'
Miami/Fla State 8:00: Things look bleak for the once dominant "U" with QB transfers and injuries. But hold everything! The 'Canes still had a solid recruiting class and return a solid nucleus from last year's bowl team. QB Jacory Harris has a good surrounding cast and won't have to carry the offense himself. He has a deep receiving corps and potent backfield. On the other hand, the 'Noles lost their top three tacklers and inexperience in key positions. Offensively, the 'Noles were sluggish in their recent scrimmage with penalties being the major problem. The 'Noles squeaked by in this matchup last year but they're only 1-4 ATS at home
vs an opponent with revenge. And with the dog at 7-0 ATS in this series, we'll grab the 'Canes.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

kelso

25 Units
Florida State (-6) over MiamiFlorida
8:00 PM -- Bobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell Stadium
FLORIDA STATE (-6) over Miami Prediction: Florida State by 13-14 Starting Time: 8:00 TV: ESPN Comments: Both teams enter this game with major injuries on their defensive units and that means one thing points to a solid FSU win in this one. Florida State has a dramatically superior offense built around quarterback Christian Ponder who sitting on a break-out year behind one of the best offensive lines in the country—one that returns all five starters from last year.


Kelso: Also has a small play 3 unit on Cincinatti

LA Angels -1.5 RL 15 units
Texas Rangers ML 10 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Vegas Runner: More coming

2 KC +1.5
2 LOS/ARZ O9

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Stu Feiner 50 dime on Cin +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

R. Ferrringo

1.5-Unit Play. Take #958 Colorado (-1.5, -120) over Cincinnati (3 p.m.)
Watched the Reds play in person over the weekend and I have to say, they are living a somewhat charmed life. Doing good things, winning close games, and taking advantage of the fact that teams and crowds take them very lightly and aren’t getting up for them. Colorado is 32-12 at home, 5-0 in Ubaldo Jiminez’s last five home starts. Colorado is making a furious push for the postseason and has been playing at a high lefel for months. I think they stay hot and get this one. If not, I’ll be back on them tomorrow. They will dole out at least one ass-whooping against the Reds this week.

1-Unit Play. Take #963 Tampa Bay (+165) over N.Y. Yankees (1 p.m., Monday, Sept. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take #965 Tampa Bay (+190) over N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 7)
This is my normal doubleheader chase. DON'T PLAY GAME 2 OF THIS DH IF WE WIN GAME 1. There has been some pitcher shuffling, so play both games as "Action".

The Rays have been garbage lately and they are about two more blown saves away from packing it in for the year. But they also always get up for the Yankees and the Red Sox. And they are just plucky enough to get in here and get one of these two games. Pitching mismatch in both games - and not in our favor. But this is a great price when you consider the rivalry aspect and the fact that the road team in this series is 7-3 in the last 10 and 10-6 in the last 16. Also, the dog is 7-4 when these two meets. Just need one of two for our profit.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Let's hope for some of our own fireworks on Labor Day. I am hoping that we can go at least 2-1 today. We have won three straight days so hopefully that can carry over to today for us.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Monday @ 12:35pm). Despite the Cubs struggling to make the playoffs, Lilly continues to have a strong year. Ted has ten wins this year but more importantly, he has a 3.17era and 123 strikeouts this year. He has pitched four straight quality starts and comes off a brilliant eight inning start against Houston where he pitched a shutout. In fact, over his last four starts he has given up four runs in his last 27 innings. He last faced Pittsburgh on June 30th and despite pitching seven strong innings, fell short 0-3. I look for Lilly to remember that start today as he likely has a strong effort this afternoon. Daniel McCutchen pitched well in his road start at Cincy where he picked up a no-decision. However, the Pirates fell short 3-4 in that contest. This is McCutchen's first home start and I expect him to have a strong outing today and try to pick up his first win. After all, he gets to face Ted Lilly one on one and that will certainly a be a thrill for him and an opportunity to raise his game. The Under is 7-0 when Lilly starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 and the Under is 21-6-1 in the Pirates last 28 games at home.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees (Monday @ 1:05pm). Matt Garza did not pitch all that well against Boston at home but still managed to help his team win 8-5 as he picked up a no-decision in his last effort. Prior to that start he was rocked at Detroit for six runs in five innings as he picked up a loss. He last faced the Yankees on July 29th where he pitched well and gave up just three runs in seven innings but the Rays still lost 2-6. Garza rarely goes three starts in a row without a quality start and he looks to get some revenge on the Yanks here as well. Garza has not pitched in overs in back to back games over his last ten starts as well as he comes off an over his last effort. Sabathia has simply been brilliant this year. One can argue that he has been worth every penny spent on him as he is 16-7 this year with a 3.48era. What he has done in his last ten starts has been truly impressive. CC is 8-1-1 over his last ten starts and eight of ten of them have been quality. However, one of his non-quality starts over that span was indeed at Tampa Bay when he gave up five runs in less than six innings as the Yankees lost 2-6 back on July 28th. I look for CC to have a strong showing to avenge that loss a bit today. The Under is 7-1 in Garza's last seven starts against the AL East and the Under is 4-1-1 in Sabathia's last six home starts.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Philadelphia @ Houston (Monday @ 2:05pm). The Phillies lost a tough game yesterday to the Astros. Considering they were huge favorites, this team certainly was expected to win that contest. I expect Happ to pitch well to help his team rebound. Happ comes off a rare non-quality start as prior to that start he had pitched in six straight quality starts. After all, this is what has aided him to have a 2.77era thus far this season. I also believe Moehler will have a strong effort. Keep in mind that nearly 70% of the public are once again on the Phillies. And, for the most part, the line has not changed indicating a likely strong effort from Moehler. Despite pitching extremely well at Chicago, Moehler picked up a loss in his last start giving up one run in five innings. In fact, his last four starts have gone under and have all been quality. The Under is 10-1-1 in Happ's last twelve road starts and the Under is 6-1 in Moehler's last seven starts when the total is set at 7 to 8.5.

Good luck,

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Doc's Sports

4-Unit Play Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers +105 over Arizona DBacks (3:40p.m.)

3-Unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies Cincinnati Reds UNDER 9 Runs (3:10p.m.)

3-Unit Play Take #970 Chicago White Sox Boston Red Sox UNDER 8 ½ Runs (2:05pm)

3-Unit Play Take #974 Cleveland Indians Texas Rangers UNDER 9 ½ Runs (6:05p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Chris Jordans pick for today
Lost yesterday with Colorado...Going to watch this one...

Monday Winner ...
200? RUTGERS - Everyone knows Rutgers will be an offensive-minded team today against a defense that has just one one starter back, so I won't touch on that ...

Instead I want to talk about Tony Pike, Cincinnati's over-hyped quarterback who is about to see his star fall this season. He's everywhere ... the cover of the media guide, every article regarding the Bearcats, the Davey O'Brien Watch List and likely on the list of every NFL scout.

Big mistake, as it's going to his head based on quotes I'm reading all over the place.

Think about it, this kid is making just his 11th start ever. Sure, this team went 11-3 last season, but the defense led the way. Now he's being called upon to not only perform on the field, but also strengthen his game mentally.

That's going to be a tough chore against a senior-laden Rutgers defense that has six starters back. The Big East media and coaches are saying this could very well be the best defense in the country.

This is the home opener, the season opener and the showcase game for the Knights to make a statement. The returners know what it's like to start on a sour note, having lost five of their first six last season - including a 13-10 setback at Cincinnati.

With revenge on the brain, and knowing they've already shut this offense down to merely nothing tells me the Knights could hold the 'Cats to 13 once again, but at home and against a depleted defense, will put up more than 10.

Lay it with Rutgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Drew Gordon

200,000* ACC GOY Florida State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

ATS lock club
3 Miami

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-09

Jim Feist

5 * Miami Florida