9-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

5 Unit Play. GOTW. Take Under 8.5 between Minnesota @ Toronto (Tuesday @ 7pm est). You can always learn a lot from a game based on the line that is set for it. You notice both of these teams are set as small favorites? This is because both pitchers are expected to pitch well for the most part, but it shows more respect to the pitcher who is on the road to get the minus money. Brian Duensing is a talent from the University of Nebraska who is finally having an impact this year. He is 2-1 on the year with a 3.81era. He comes off back to back quality starts where he has given up just 1 run over his last 14 innings. His last start against the Whitesox was solid but the Twins still fell short 2-4 and he picked up a no-decision. I look for him to be just as sharp today. Romero comes off back to back losses as he has had a rough go of it lately facing the Yankees and Redsox in back to back games. I look for him to get back on track today. In his last two starts at home he has given up just four runs in 12 innings and I look for a bounce-back from him today. The Under is 5-0 for the Twins as Underdogs of late and the Under is 4-1-1 for the Jays against the AL Central of late.

Good luck,

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Minnesota at Toronto (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 8)
I love the ump and I love the hitting-pitching matchup here. Brian Duesning is not going to be good enough to withstand Paul Schrieber's small zone and I think that Minnesota's offense can be effective enough to score on Ricky Romero, whose confidence has to be a little rattled after some poor outings. Love the number and think this one gets 'over'.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #912 Colorado (-1.5, -125) over Cincinnati (8:30 p.m.,Tuesday, Sept. 8)
Colorado has been slamming at home and I think that they will get all over rookie Matt Maloney today. Maloney has an ERA of nearly 8.00 in his last three starts and this is the soft-tosser's first start in Colorado.


Ferringo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Street Rosenthal

*300 New York Mets -105
I am taking the Mets as my big play tonight. I think they win this home game vs the Marlins. I have the Mets as 16-5 SU since 2004 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a win and it is the first game of a series. I also have the Mets starter Tim Redding as 9-1 SU in game one of a series and the Mets had more than 4 strike outs in their previous game. Take the Mets for the win.

*200 Philadelphia Phillies -141
I have the Phillies as 25-5 SU since 2005 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team left on base than their opponent as a favorite. I also have the Phillies as 19-5 since 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Finally, I have the Nationals as 0-12 SU since September 2008 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. Take the Phillies for the win.

*200 Chicago White Sox -148
I am taking the White Sox for the win tonight. I have a nice starter trend against the A's Pitcher Brett Tomko that is 0-15 SU since 2005. The Trend states that when Brett Tomko starts as away dog and line greater than 120 and the A's previous starter allowed no homer runs they are 0-15 SU. I also have the White Sox as 33-14 SU since 2006 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Take the White Sox for the win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

seabass
50* Philadelphia
50* Minnesota
20* White Sox
20* Atlanta
20* St. Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Seabass

Vegas Steam Play

100* Chicago Cubs again tonight

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

TONY BRUNO WINS

CUBS 30x

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Billy Coleman

5* Dodgers-1' Run Line
3* Yankees-1' Run line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Jack Jones
20* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -144

Take the Phillies to bust out of a 4-game losing streak against the Washington Nationals. The Nats are beyond bad, even at home where they are just 28-41 on the season. The Phillies are 41-27 this season on the road, including 5-1 at the Nationals (10-2 overall against them). Pedro Martinez starts for the Phillies, and while he hasn't exactly been outstanding, he has been a solid addition to the rotation, going 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA, including a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Nats' starter John Lannan has been good for his team at home, but he is 0-1 (Washington is 0-3) over his last 3 starts with a 8.59 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Phillies get things turned around against a team they have simply dominated this season.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

SCOTT RICKENBACH

Orioles at Red Sox
Pick: Over 9.5

Sometimes a young pitcher “hits the wall” and we feel that is the case with rookie David Hernandez of the Orioles. The right-hander is only 24 years old and Baltimore has won just once in his last seven starts. In those outings, he’s allowed 24 earned runs on 39 hits and 23 walks in 34.1 innings of work. Yes, that works out to a 6.29 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. That is not going to get the job done at the big league level and we feel Hernandez will get “lit up” again here. He’s allowed 13 homers in his last 34.1 innings. The right-hander is a flyball pitcher and he now faces a powerful Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on a mild evening. The Red Sox will be getting their third look at Hernandez in the last six weeks and they hit him much harder in the second outing than they did in the first. In fact, Hernandez was quite lucky that he allowed just two earned runs against Boston at Camden Yards in early August. Hernandez lasted just 4.2 innings and he gave up four walks and seven hits so the damage easily could have been much worse. That is helping to give us some value here as this total is currently a 9.5 across the board. Note that, behind Hernandez, is an Orioles bullpen that is among the worst in the majors.

Unlike Baltimore, the Red Sox do have a solid bullpen. However, they could be asked to do too much here. We’re not sold on Clay Buchholz just yet. He’s struggled quite a bit in six of his last nine outings and one of those subpar efforts came against the Orioles when he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits and four walks in just four innings of work. For Buchholz, there are some match-up issues with the Orioles because they have a number of left-handed sticks and switch-hitters on their roster. Note that Buchholz has been hit at a .293 clip by left-handed batters this season. The Orioles scored 7 runs on 11 hits yesterday and they have averaged 9 hits per game over their last dozen games. They’ve also averaged nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for Boston, the Red Sox only managed 8 hits yesterday but they faced Mark Buehrle. Prior to yesterday’s game, Boston had managed at least 10 hits in 6 of their last 9 games. They’ve averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games. Play OVER the total in Boston as a 7* Regular Play selection.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Chris Jordans analysis...
200? CARDINALS (LIST Smoltz and Parra) - At this point it’s easy to see the Cardinals are going to coast toward their sixth National League Central crown in 10 years. It’s almost as if they can smell the blood in the water at this point, and there’s no reason to think twice with the price suddenly dropping today, even if Manny Parra just beat the Cardinals and John Smoltz on Sept. 3. In fact, embrace the revenge angle and lay the chalk with confidence.

Over this season and last, the road team in this series is 14-6, including a 9-4 run this year. These took Labor Day off, but the Cardinals won the series opener 3-0 thanks to ace Chris Carpenter, who threw a one-hitter and struck out 10. The win marked St. Louis’ seventh in nine meetings.

St. Louis, which is 29-9 since July 27, is currently riding a 12-4 road streak in that span, including three of its last four during this current road trip. And with the Brewers on a 2-5 slide, I like my chances with Smoltz in revenge tonight.

200? ANGELS (LIST Kazmir and Hernandez) - Speaking of revenge, Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez just met in Seattle on Sept. 2, and both were lights out in what was a pitchers’ duel. Kazmir gave up just one earned run, scattered three hits and struck out eight while Hernandez gave up zilch and a mere four hits. Now back in Anaheim, I have to believe this is an awfully cheap price with a much better team overall.

I know Seattle’s ace right-hander is 10-2 with a 2.04 ERA in his last 19 starts, but due to the fact the Angels have struggled offensively lately, they’ve managed to split their last six games despite scoring three or fewer runs five times in that span. The due theory enters my head, as the home lights could spark the team at the right time. Besides, the Angels will be out for revenge after suffering two tough losses in Seattle. They’re on winning runs of 18-8 in game one of a series and 20-9 when hosting Seattle, which will be playing its fifth straight road game in as many days. The M’s are also playing their 21st straight game in as many days.

The Halos’ pitching has been sharp, with their starters boasting a 1.49 ERA in the last nine contests, and newcomer Kazmir is going to be looking to prove his worth on his ‘new’ home mound. Prior to his Angels debut, he threw quality starts in five of his last six outings for the Rays, while he’s struck out 18 over 12-1/3 innings in his last two starts overall. Seattle has lost six of seven on the road against southpaws, so I think I’m on the right side.

200? UNDER Athletics/White Sox (Action with any pitchers going) - Sometimes there’s nothing better than the numbers to go on, and that’s the case with this American League clash tonight. I’m not worried about the pitchers as much, since everything else tells me we have the right total here, based on team tendencies. To wit:

The Athletics, who will be playing their 18th straight game over the last 18 days, have arrived from Oakland on ‘under’ runs of 8-2 on Tuesday nights, 7-2 on the road and 8-3 when installed as an underdog.

The White Sox - who are also playing their 18th straight game in as many days, and are in off a tough and tiring series with the Red Sox - are on ‘under’ runs of 8-0 after a win, 13-3 on the natural surface and 19-7 overall.

These two aren’t going to be motivated tonight, not as much at the plate I should say, so I’ll play this one low

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-8-09

Kelso also has a 10 unit play on the Twins