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Re: 9-9-09
Bob Valentino
40 Dime
Angels RL
Snell and Weaver must start
Bob Valentino
40 Dime
Angels RL
Snell and Weaver must start
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Re: 9-9-09
Jeff Benton Wednesday's 30 Dime MLB Run-Line Game of the Year ... 30 Dime: BLUE JAYS on the run line (-1 1/2 runs) vs. Twins ... NOTE: Roy Halladay and Carl Pavano must start this game, or this play is VOID!
Blue Jays (-1½ runs)
The Minnesota Twins can’t beat the Toronto Blue Jays, and more importantly, the Twins can’t deal with Roy Halladay. So to be getting a Halladay vs. Carl Pavano matchup north of the border is like stealing money.
Going back to July 2007, these teams have met 15 times, and Toronto has won 13 of those games. Of those 13 wins, 10 have come by multiple runs, including all four victories this year (by the combined score of 35-13, no less). And in the last nine clashes in Canada, the Blue Jays have gone 8-1, scoring 62 runs and giving up 23 in the last nine games.
As for Halladay, check out these career numbers versus the Twins: 8-0, 2.77 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 12 games (10 starts). The Blue Jays are 9-1 in his 10 starts against Minnesota (seven of the nine being multiple-run wins), including 4-0 at home (all four multiple-run wins). Halladay has faced Minnesota once this season, back on April 16 in the Metrodome, and he cruised to a 9-2 victory, allowing just one run over seven innings with eight Ks and no BBs.
How have the Twins best hitters fared against Halladay over the years? Well, Justin Morneau is 3-for-12, Joe Mauer is 1-for-10, Jason Kubel is 1-for-12 and Michael Cuddyer is 2-for-9. Among those four sluggers, they have a total of four RBIs in 43 at-bats!
Most importantly as it pertains to Halladay, after three consecutive subpar starts (all losses) to end August, the All-Star right-hander returned to form in his first start of September. On Thursday, facing the hottest team and best offense in baseball, he twirled a brilliant complete-game one-hitter, beating the Yankees 6-0. It was Halladay’s fourth complete game in his last 10 starts and the sixth time this season he’s finished a game.
What about Pavano, you ask? Well, he’s definitely pitched OK lately (3.32 ERA last three starts), but he lost two of those games, falling 3-0 to Texas on Aug. 29 and 5-2 at Cleveland on Thursday. But here’s all you need to know about Pavano: The last two times he’s pitched in Canada – once with the Indians in July this year and once with the Yankees in September last season – Pavano gave up 12 runs in 8 1/3 innings, and the Blue Jays won by scores of 8-2 and 10-6.
Finally, even though this has been another lost season in Toronto after a red-hot start to 2009, when the Blue Jays do win, they tend to win big. Their last four wins: 18-10 at Texas, 6-0 over the Yankees (Halladay’s win on Thursday), 14-8 over the Yankees, 6-3 over Minnesota. In fact, 27 of the team’s last 34 victories dating to May 29 have come by more than one run. Meanwhile, the Twins’ last 10 defeats have been by more than one run.
Add it all up and we’re looking at another blowout Blue Jays win over Minnesota and another dominating outing by Halladay. Take the Blue Jays and lay the 1½ runs.Comment
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Re: 9-9-09
Sid Paradise - 9/9
MLB
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Dodgers @ Diamondbacks -123, 1015pm Et
Jon Garland takes the hill tonight for the Dodgers and he has been great his last three trips to the mound. One of those trips was against his former team, the Diamondbacks, who he shut out. He'll get another chance tonight in Arizona. With such a hot pitcher on the mound it's hard to pass up on the underdog in this one.
Pick- Dodgers +113 (4* play)
Braves @ Astros -123, 805pm Et
The braves took game one of this series yesterday and look to start a winning streak as they send Tommy Hanson to the mound for his first start vs Houston. Wandy Rodriguez takes the hill for the Astros, who has been dominate at home this season going 8-2 with a 1.60 ERA in 13 home starts. Because the Astros haven't faced the rookie yet I think they will have a tough time hitting him tonight, while the Braves are 28-18 this season vs lefties. At +113 we are getting good value for a small play here.
Pick- Braves +113 (2* play)Comment
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Re: 9-9-09
4 Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 between the Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros (Wednesday @ 8:05pm est). The Braves are reeling currently. They are only four games above .500 and they just cannot make a stretch run here to get into the playoffs. As the Phillies have made a nice run as well as the Marlins, the Braves are eight games back of the division and also trail considerably in the wildcard chase as well. Tommy Hanson has not picked up a win in his last two outings and will help alleviate this outing. The young man has put together four quality starts prior to that and with the Braves needing a quality start, similar to Vasquez yesterday, I expect him to provide it. Wandy has been lights out at home. Something about the Houston air as Rodriguez has always pitched well at home. His home/away splits continue to be stark differences from each other. He comes off another shutout performance over the Philies not yielding a run in seven innings and in fact, he is 4-0 over his last four home starts yielding just 1 run in 32 innings - 0 runs in the last 25 innings (over three starts). The Under is 5-1 for the Braves as Underdogs of late and the Under is 7-1 for the Astros following a loss.
4 Unit Play. Take Cincinnati Under 9.5 between the Reds @ Colorado Rockies (Wednesday @ 8:40pm est). I don't know who had a conversation with Bronson Arroyo about a couple months ago, but he has turned his season around. Since July 28th, he has recorded eight straight quality starts. He has given up just five runs over the last 38 innings and has been very consistent. He last faced the Rockies at home and his team fell short 4-6 as he picked up a no-decision in the contest going 7 innings and giving up three runs. I expect another strong performance from him today as he looks for the win. Hammel has been pitching well of late and his last three starts have yielded no decisions. I look for a strong outing for Hammel as he looks to pick up a win finally over his last four starts and he is quite capable of going 6-7 innings and giving up three runs today. I believe Arroyo will help raise Jason's game a bit here and bear in mind the Rockies need quality starts from their pitchers if they hope to continue to stay pace in the wild card chase. The Under is 5-0 for the Reds on the highway of late and the Under is 7-3 for the Rockies when the total is set at this range.
Good luck,
ICComment
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Re: 9-9-09
FERINGO
1-Unit Play. Take #962 Houston (-125) over Atlanta (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
This one is all about Wandy. He is 13-3 in his last 16 home starts and over the past two years has been one of the best home bets in the league. The Braves are kind of playing with heads up their asses right now and are on a 1-6 skid. They won yesterday, which I think strengthens the Astros' resolve today.
1-Unit Play. Take #951 Chicago Cubs (-150) over Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #959 Florida (-115) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
I just don't understand how Patrick Misch is pitching in the Majors right now, much less winning his first couple starts. But I'm sold on fading him for the rest of the year. I think he is a fraud and I don't think that he is any good. Florida has gotten much better this year against left-handed pitching. No bet against the Mets right now is a bad one. And the fact that they are facing a right-handed starter with potentially overpowering stuff (the Mets don't fare well against righty power pitchers) on a short number puts us in an even better position.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #975 Detroit (-1.5, +110) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Automatic play. Justin Verlander is 9-1 in his career against the Royals and 5-1 with a 1.16 ERA in Kauffman Stadium. The Tigers are 24-10 in their last 34 trips to KC and they lost last night. Oh, and Robinson Tejeda and his flat fastball are nothing to fear.
1-Unit Play. Take #957 Philadelphia (-1.5, -125) over Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Looking for a little Cliff Lee domination. Philly came back and covered the runline last night and I see no reason why they can't take advantage of that Nationals bullpen and do the same thing again. Lee has had two straight awful outings. But the Nationals are slump-busters for pitchers as much as for hitters.
1-Unit Play. Take #964 Colorado (-165) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Rockies just keep rolling. Cashed in on the run line with them yesterday and now we'll go back to the well. Cincinnati had a nice run going, but that was more a product of a favorable schedule and some other teams (like Atlanta) just not playing well. They were catching the right teams at the right time. Not the Rockies. Bronso Arroyo throws a lot of junk. And in Coors Field those pitches have a habit of hanging.
1-Unit Play. Take #978 Chicago White Sox (-130) over Oakland (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Normally this would be a run line play in keeping with one of our top systems. But with Freddy Garcia on the hill and this light number I will just play this one straight with the moneyline play. Chicago has been exceptional at home for the past few years. So getting upset in Game 1 by a weaker team sets them up nicely for a bounceback.
Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Atlanta at Houston (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Philadelphia at Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Cincinnati at Colorado (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 Baltimore at Boston (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Oakland at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Seattle at L.A. Angels (10 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Minnesota at Toronto (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 9)
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