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Re: 9-10-09
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play Take #906 New York Mets Florida Marlins OVER 9 ½ Runs (7:10pm)
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play Take #906 New York Mets Florida Marlins OVER 9 ½ Runs (7:10pm)
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Re: 9-10-09
2-Unit Play. Take #914 L.A. Angels (-1.5, +110) over Seattle (10 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
I actually really, really, really like this play more than this rating suggests. But John Lackey is coming off a complete game and that actually fits him into one of my fade systems. But I’m ignoring that system and just riding the talent. And the fact that the Angels are an auto play against a lefty starter. The Angels are 37-18 against a southpaw and 8-2 in their last 10 at home against a lefty. The Angels are 7-1 in Lackey’s last eight starts against the Mariners and they are 22-9 at home against Seattle.
1-Unit Play. Take #911 Detroit (-155) over Kansas City (2 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
Lenny DiNardo is making his first start of the year and I’m right there to jump on the fade train. Jarrod Washburn got absolutely rocked by Tampa Bay in his last start – eight runs in about six innings – but the last time he faced the Royals he went eight innings and gave up no runs. Washburn has been pretty terrible since coming to the Tigers. But he is still 4-2 in those six games so we’ll shrug and go with the wins over the ERA.
Today's Totals
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Cincinnati at Colorado (3 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Detroit at Kansas City (2 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Atlanta at Houston (8 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Florida at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 10)
That's it for today. Good luck. FerringoComment
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Re: 9-10-09
Indian Cowboy
5 Unit Play. WNBA GOM. #604. Take the Chicago Sky +1 over the Indiana Fever (Thursday @ 8pm est). Its nearly playoff time and it comes down to motivation at this stage of the game. We took the Under yesterday in the Shock vs. Lynx game given that both teams needed the win and consequently we correctly assumed that defense would be the name of the game. And, we figured the Lynx would need the win more to be tied for fourth in the West and used that as a comp pick. Today, is no different. The Fever are set. They are 22-10 and lead the East. Regardless of what happens this week, this team has the first seed. But, Chicago on the other hand is 15-17 and is it stands right now, they are in a three way tie for the fourth and last playoff spot in the East. This is an absolute must win for this team if they plan on going dancing. This team cannot rely on tiebreakers and would much rather handle their own destiny - right here and right now. This team recently played Indiana on the road and was down by just 1 at halftime. As the Sky went into the fourth quarter they were down by six and couldn't get closer after that. With the crowd behind them, with revenge and the necessity of winning this game, I expect Chicago to pull this game out this evening similar to how the Lynx defeated the Shock last night. The Sky are 11-4 at home this year and 5-2 ATS following a SU loss.
Good luck,
ICComment
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Re: 9-10-09
Wunderdog:
Game: Clemson at Georgia Tech (Thursday 9/10 7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Georgia Tech -225 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 2.2)
Last year Clemson had the three offensive players rated 1, 2 and 3 in the preseason player of the year voting in the ACC. They managed to gain 250 yards or less in five games, so needless to say the offensive line was very sub-standard for the ACC. This team has talent, they have changed almost every coaching level including defensive coordinator and they are breaking in a new QB. All of this while playing on the road in a hostile environment in the ACC opener. The same offensive line, with some experience, is not going to be easy to pull off on the road early. Georgia Tech ran the ball down everyone's throats a year ago, but with Johnson more comfortable with the players knowledge of the system he is going to open things up. Nesbit has a big arm and talented receivers to which to throw. What was a very good offense last year is going to be more effective because of it. This is a tough place for Clemson to come in on the road with so many new schemes and faces. Paul Johnson is 16-4 straight-up in his last 20 games off a home win. I like Georgia Tech to win this game and it's worth these odds on the moneyline. Game: Colorado at Toledo (Friday 9/11 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffalos, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarterback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss. I'm going with Toledo in this one.Comment
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Re: 9-10-09
Vegas Informer
WNBA PLAYS
5 Unit Play. #604 Take Chicago PK over Indiana (Thursday 9/10 8:05 PM)
(Game of the Week) Indiana is the top team in the East but on the road the Fever can be beat. Indiana is 14-3 at home but only 8-7 on the road. Chicago certainly has a more immediate need for a win tonight, as it shares identical overall and conference records with Washington and Connecticut. Chicago is 11-4 at home and tonight they will need to play great ball to beat this Indiana team. Chicago is 5-2 ATS following a SU loss. The Fever are 4-1 ATS against Chicago so revenge is on the table for the Chicago Sky.
Good Luck to All – Vegas InformerComment
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Re: 9-10-09
Wunderdog
Sport: WNBA Basketball
Game: Indiana Fever @ Chicago Sky - Thursday September 10, 2009 8:00 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 146 (-110) (Normal)
There aren't too many teams that win on the road in the WNBA. This season, just Indiana and Phoenix have winning road records. They are extremes in terms of league standards. Phoenix wins by just plain outscoring their opponents and Indiana wins by out defending them. The Fever is the leader in fewest points per game allowed in the WNBA. Chicago looks to be more of an offensive team, but when you dig inside the numbers, something very revealing is discovered. The Sky have amazingly allowed 75 points or more on the road in 16 of their 17 road games. When they play at home that 75 minimum they allow on the road, is the average of what they allow at home! That is quite the extreme. So the defense that doesn't show up on the road, has been part of what they do at home all season - a much better defensive club. These teams have historically played to the UNDER as five of their last six have gone below the total, and the Fever have played seven of their last nine UNDER overall. I will go UNDER in this oneComment
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Re: 9-10-09
Trace Adams
1500* - Georgia Tech,
500* - Pittsburgh Steelers
500* - Atlanta w/Lowe over Oswalt
Just too many question marks surrounding the road Tigers tonight as they invade Atlanta for this Thursday night special. For one thing, Clemson RB C.J. Spiller sat out the 2nd half in last Saturday's win, and for another this is a short prectice week, and a road game to boot.
Paul Johnson is now in his 2nd season at the helm of the Yellow Jackets, and I expect the Jackets to be that much more diverse in their play-calling, and formations under Johnson's tutelage.
Last year when these schools met, it was Dabo Swinney's 1st game as head coach amid the Tommy Bowden resignation, and Tech still prevailed 21-17 with a late TD to seal the win, and cover as the 2 1/2-point favorite.
Tech has won 4 of the last 5 series meetings, covering the last pair, and pointspread-guru Paul Johnson went 8-3 against the spread last season with the Rambling Wreck, and is now 44-24 ATS his last 68 lined affairs dating back to his Naval Academy days.
Tech's lone Thursday nighter last year was a piss-job on Miami-Florida, 41-23 in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score.
Take Tech again here minus the points.
1500? - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
NFL action, and while the impost is starting to get close to a full score, I am still backing the host Steelers to come out and cover this sucker.
I had read a bunch of tip-sheets touting the Titans road mark, and their underdog mark, but what I am wondering is if they honestly think that Kerry Collins is going to resprise the season he has last year?
I certainly don't, and I know that Vince Young is not the answer either.
Pittsburgh does return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball, and they are quite eager to atone for last season's 31-14 beating they absorbed in Nashville towards the end of the season.
Does the loss of Albert Haynesworth make that much of a difference on the Tennessee "D"? I think it will tonight.
Lay the wood with the defending Super Bowl champs.
500? - Pittsburgh Steelers
Talk about a tough loss last night, the Braves gave up a 1-out, 2-run single to the Astros last night to lose 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th. Ouch!
Still, I see value in the underdog tonight, as Derek Lowe has been pitching well down the stretch, and the Bravos are 8-3 over his last 11 starts.
No knocking Roy Oswalt, but at 8-5 with a 3.77 ERA, he isn't exactly invincible these days.
Lowe beat Houston on May 1st, working 7 innings, while allowing 2 runs to score.
I like him to beat them again tonight in the dog role.
Take Atlanta to bounce-back with the win.
500? - Atlanta w/Lowe over Oswalt
???NOTE: Both listed starters must start, or no action on the play!???Comment
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Re: 9-10-09
Jim Feist
College Football TV "Total" Oddsmaker Error!
Jim Feist is focused on ANY football number that oddsmakers missed. They did on the total on Thursday.5?s college football tilt between Clemson and Georgia Tech. If you like to play totals or just like to WIN go deep inside the numbers with Jim's TV "Total" Oddsmaker Error and take command of your bankroll!
UNDER 44Comment
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Re: 9-10-09
Michael Cannon
Thursday's Plays...
20 Dime ?
Titans-Steelers OVER
Take the over tonight between the Titans and Steelers.
I?ve studied this matchup for over a month now and while I?ve waffled on the side I have never doubted the total.
This game is going to go over and it wouldn?t surprise me if it hits by the end of the 3rd quarter.
The public thinks otherwise as the number opened at 37 but quickly dropped two points to the current 35. Although I don?t put any weight in what the public does when I handicap a matchup, I do believe that they are reading too much into the respective defenses in this game.
The main thing that Tennessee has to deal with defensively is the loss of tackle Albert Haynesworth. He is a perennial All-Pro and although Tennessee still boasts a stout defense, they will feel the void that was left when Haynesworth signed with Washington.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers return the league?s top stop-unit and one that can potentially be better with Lawrence Timmons replacing the departed Larry Foote as one of the inside linebackers. But Timmons is out with an injury, so the Steelers will have to wait a week to see what his potential impact will be.
That?s not to say the Steelers will not perform up to their lofty standards, but I still think this number is too low on the total.
The Steelers have historically performed very well offensively in Week 1 and it wouldn?t surprise me if they did so tonight. But their offensive line remains a question mark and that?s why I didn?t necessarily like them to cover the side in this game. Besides, in Week 1 you?re more prone to mistakes on offense because the cohesiveness just isn?t there after playing sparingly in the preseason.
As we all know turnovers lead to easy points, thus making the over even more easily attainable.
You also can?t forget that the Titans were the only team to put up over 300 yards of offense against the Steelers in last year?s 31-14 blowout win in Week 16.
The over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 in Week 1 action, 13-4 against the AFC and 39-16-2 at Heinz Field.
The total has also gone over in six of the last seven meetings between these two overall and seven of the last eight battles in Pittsburgh.
All we need is a final score of 20-17 for this game to go over.
Take the over as I see the defending champs winning at home.
10 Dime ?
GEORGIA TECH
Lay the points with Georgia Tech tonight at home over Clemson.
Clemson starts freshman Kyle Parker at quarterback and I just don?t trust him in this spot on the road against a Top-20 team.
Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has that confusing triple-option attack on offense and the Tigers have to adjust after playing against the spread attack that Middle Tennessee State ran last week.
Clemson running back C. J. Spiller sat out the second half of last week?s game after an apparent hamstring injury and if he?s not at full strength that will further hamper the Tigers? chances here.
Georgia Tech has 19 returning starters from last year and that experience only makes them that much more attractive at home under the prime-time lights.
Lay the points with Georgia Tech as they grab the win and cover.Comment
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